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thousand. In 2023, compared to 2019, it increased to 2 291,1 thousand or an
average of 31,2%. Year by year in our republic, the increase in the number of
people living in the country, the increase in their need for housing, and as a
result, the increase in the volume of construction of residential (non-residential)
buildings, by themselves, are physical property and land tax payers. it is natural
that it leads to an increase in the number of individuals. At the same time, the
number of individuals with property and land tax arrears is also increasing. In
particular, the number of taxpayers with tax debt reached 7 349,1 thousand in
2023, compared to 4 683,3 thousand in 2019, which increased by 2 665,8
thousand or 57% compared to 2019. In the last 5 years, the growth rate of the
number of individuals with tax debt is 12,1% on average.
Also, if we analyze the amount of tax debts of individuals from property and
land taxes, in 2019 861,5 billion soums amounted to 3 257,7 billion soums in
2023. This figure is 2 396,2 billion soums increased to 2023 or 278% (year-on-
year growth rate of tax debt is 42% on average). Of course, it is not a positive
result that the amount of tax debt increases from year to year at a high speed, but
the level of inflation in the country should also be taken into account here. Then
the difference between the years will be significantly reduced. In addition,
factors such as the income level of the population, the pandemic and the tax
culture also influenced the increase in tax debt.
Based on the above, the following suggestions may have a positive effect on
reducing the tax liability of individuals in the future:
- to take measures to further develop the tax culture of individuals;
- creation of an opportunity to
monitor tax receipts “online” in order to
further strengthen taxpayers' trust in the tax authority.
References
1.
Appeal of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev to the Oliy
Majlis and the people of Uzbekistan on December 20, 2022.
2.
Podkolzin A. (2016). Magazine "Russian Entrepreneurship" No. 2 p. 74.
3.
Khakumov U.F. Practice of recovery of tax debt and directions for its improvement.
Dissertation of the doctor of philosophy (PhD) in economic sciences
–
2023.
4.
Article 125 of the Tax Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
THE YIELD CURVE OF THE GOVERNMENT BONDS OF THE
REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
Khоlikоv Khamidulla,
PhD
Hеad spеcialist, thе Cеntral Bank оf thе Rеpublic оf Uzbеkistan
A well-functioning government securities market can enhance overall
liquidity in the broader bond market. Government bonds come in a range of
maturities and are actively traded, enabling the establishment of a risk-free yield
curve. Recently issued bonds, termed "on-the-run securities," are typically more
“MILLIY IQTISODIYOTNI ISLOH QILISH VA BARQAROR RIVOJLANTIRISH ISTIQBOLLARI”
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liquid than older bonds. Furthermore, developed repurchase (repo) and
derivatives markets allow investors to take speculative positions on sovereign
debt, reflecting their expectations regarding future interest rates, economic
growth, inflation, and government funding needs, thereby improving liquidity in
the bond market.
Moreover, government bond yields are regarded as indicators of nominal
risk-free rates, as governments are viewed as the most creditworthy borrowers.
Yield spreads between other debts
—
like local government and private sector
debt
—
compared to government borrowing, known as "risk spreads," are often
used to gauge the market’s view of other borrowers' creditworthiness. Investors
can use the government yield curve to assess funding costs over different
periods, making the bond market a useful tool for long-term asset management
and risk management.
To better understand a country's government yield curve and its connection
to macroeconomic trends, the central government yield curve is analyzed in
three parts: level, slope, and curvature. Recognizing these components aids in
assessing how the yield curve relates to macroeconomic changes. The Nelson-
Siegel model, which consists of three factors, is used for this analysis. This factor
model is popular among academics and market participants because it
effectively captures various characteristic shapes of real yield curves. Notably,
the loading parameter λ can fluctuate over time, often incr
easing significantly
and becoming more volatile before recessions, then decreasing afterward. The
factor loadings for level, slope, and curvature are designed to reflect movements
in these areas, allowing for the reproduction of different yield curve shapes,
including shifts in overall yield levels and changes in both long and short rates
that affect the slope and curvature.[1]
Yield curves are essential for understanding interest rate dynamics in the
bond market. They often mirror broader economic conditions and provide
insights into market expectations for future interest rate changes. The shape of
the yield curve is especially important when evaluating yield curve risk, as it
reveals investor expectations for the future in relation to the current state of the
bond market. Economists and financial analysts closely track the yield curve,
viewing it as a crucial economic indicator. It significantly influences monetary
policy and offers insights into investor predictions for future interest rates,
economic growth, and inflation, while also impacting bank profitability.
The slope of the yield curve represents the difference in interest rates
between short-term bonds (like 1-year bonds) and long-term bonds (such as 10-
year bonds). This variation in yields arises because investors have different
expectations about future changes to the policy rate compared to its current
level. For example, the yield on a five-year bond considers both the uncertainty
surrounding the policy rate and investors’ expectations for it ov
er the next five
years.
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There are three primary types of yield curve shapes: normal yield curve,
inverted yield curve, and flat yield curve.
✓
Normal yield curve.
A "normal" yield curve is defined by short-term rates
being lower than long-term yields, creating an upward slope. This shape is
typical because longer-term bonds are more vulnerable to the risks associated
with rising interest rates or inflation (which can lower their prices), prompting
investors to seek higher yields for holding these bonds. This configuration is
often interpreted as an indicator of a strong economy. A normal yield curve is
frequently observed during periods of economic growth when both growth and
inflation are increasing. In such expansions, investors generally expect future
interest rates to surpass current rates, anticipating that the central bank will
raise its policy interest rate in response to growing inflation.
✓
Flat yield curve.
When short-term and long-term yields are nearly equal,
the yield curve is described as "flat." This flat shape often appears during the shift
between a normal and an inverted yield curve, or vice versa. Furthermore, a flat
yield curve has been seen during periods of low interest rates or as a
consequence of specific unconventional monetary policies.
✓
Inverted yield curve.
An "inverted" yield curve occurs when short-term
yields exceed long-term yields, creating a downward slope. This inversion may
happen when investors expect that future policy interest rates will be lower than
the current rates. Such a yield curve is often viewed as a sign of economic
uncertainty or a potential recession. In countries like the United States, an
inverted yield curve has historically been associated with an impending
economic downturn. This connection is rooted in the belief that central banks
usually lower policy rates in response to slowing economic growth and inflation,
a situation that investors may predict accurately.
On July 25, 2024, the board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan
approved the development of "The procedure for calculating and announcing the
yield curve of government securities."
The yield curve for government securities in the Republic of Uzbekistan is a
graph that represents the relationship between the prices and maturities of debt
instruments denominated in the national currency. This graph illustrates the
yields of government securities over different time periods (Figure 1).
Initial observations of the yield curve for government securities in
Uzbekistan, as noted in international examples, resemble a "normal" curve. From
this graph (Figure 1), it can be inferred that the economy is perceived as strong,
with investors expecting higher interest payments for long-term bonds and an
anticipated increase in the inflation rate. This indicates economic improvement,
as a normal yield curve typically appears during prosperous periods marked by
growth and rising inflation.
A yield curve reflects the risk tolerance of bond investors and can
significantly affect their investment returns. When properly understood and
interpreted, a yield curve can even aid in predicting economic trends.
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Figurе 1. The government securities yield curve of the Republic of
Uzbekistan in the national currency
Source:
https://cbu.uz/en/monetary-policy/local-currency-yield-curve/ The official website of the Central
bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
A liquid bond market provides important information regarding
macroeconomic shifts. Changes in the slope of the government yield curve, along
with variations in interest rates, can help investors evaluate macroeconomic
fundamentals. Extensive research indicates that the slope of the yield curve
offers crucial insights into investor expectations concerning growth and
inflation. For example, an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher
than long-term rates, suggests a greater likelihood of recession (or default),
while a steeper nominal yield curve indicates expectations of stronger growth
and potentially increasing inflation.
Rеfеrеncеs
1.
Diebold, F., G. Rudebusch, and S. B. Aruoba.
2006. “The Macroeconomy and the Yield
Curve: A Dynamic
Latent Factor Approach.”
Journal of Econometrics 131 (1
–
2).
2.
The official website of the Central bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. www.cbu.uz
АНАЛИЗ ФИНАНСОВЫХ АКТИВОВ КАК ВАЖНЫЙ КОМПОНЕНТ
ОЦЕНКИ ФИНАНСОВОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ
КОМПАНИИ
Гончаренко Валерия Павловна
Минский филиал РЭУ им. Г.В. Плеханова, направление Экономика
Научный руководитель:
Смолякова Ольга Мечеславовна
,
доцент кафедры менеджмента, учета и финансов Минского филиала РЭУ
им.
Г.В.
Плеханова, кандидат экономических наук, доцент по
специальности «Экономика»,
Финансовые вложения, являясь важной частью финансовых активов
предприятия, ставят своей целью перераспределение свободных
денежных средств между теми, кто нуждается в них, и теми, кто готов
вложить свободные финансовые ресурсы с целью генерирования
дополнительной прибыли и стимулирования положительного денежного
