Scientific research results in pandemic conditions (COVID-19)
45
Rasul Tursunov, PhD in economics, Associate Professor, Shamsiddin
Settiev, Candidate of physical and mathematical Sciences, Tashkent Branch
of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Uzbekistan
SMALL BUSINESS MODELING AND GDP FORECASTING OF THE REPUBLIC
OF UZBEKISTAN
R.Tursunov
Abstract. In the article there studied relationship between main
indicators of small business in the sectors of economy and the volume of
GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan. There determined GDP forecast value
that are based multivariate models.
Keywords: modeling, small business, GDP, share of small business in
GDP, number of small enterprises, correlation, regression.
Much attention has been paid to the support and development of small
businesses in the Republic of Uzbekistan lately. There commemorated a new
stage in the economic development of the country in the Strategy for Actions
on the further development of Uzbekistan in 2017-2021. In accordance
with this document there implemented wide-ranging reforms aimed at
improving the investment climate, creating a favorable business
environment and stimulating accelerated business development. And there
strengthened legal protection of small business, and financial support for
the development of entrepreneurial activity [1].
According to the Tax Code adopted the following year there
implemented a great number of innovations. In particular, the number of
types of taxes has been reduced from 13 to 9. Simple tax payment
mechanisms have been brought with the option of delay or installment plan.
For the first time, the procedure for returning part of the value-added tax
during sale of goods has been introduced to entrepreneurs. Previously, this
system was applied only for exporting goods. Due to this, 3.4 trillion soums
will remain at the disposal of entrepreneurs, or 2.5 times as much as than
last year [2].
As a result of measures taken to create a business environment,
comprehensive support and further stimulate business development, in
2019, 92.9 thousand new small enterprises and micro-firms were created
(without dekhan farms and farms), which is 1.9 times more than in 2018.
The largest number of small enterprises and micro-firms were created in the
field of trade (39.1%), industry (21.0%), construction (9.4%), agriculture,
forestry and fisheries (8.0%), housing and food (7.8%), transportation and
storage (3.2%). Based on 1000 people, the average for the Republic of
Uzbekistan on 01.01.2020 is 13.3 units. small businesses, or 100.8% of the
level of 01.01.2019 [4].
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46
Currently, small business plays a key role in the national economy of the
country and the following data indicates it:
Table 1
Share of small business (in % to the total volume)
Years
GDP
The industry
Services
Construction
Employment
2015
54.5
40.6
58.2
66.7
77.9
2016
57.3
45.3
61.4
66.9
78.2
2017
54.9
41.2
58.4
66.2
78.0
2018
59.4
37.4
56.0
73.2
78.3
2019
56.5
34.9
52.1
75.4
78.1
Source: State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics.
The share of small business in GDP is 56.4% (59.4% in 2018), industry
- 37.4% (34.9%), services - 52.1% (56%), construction – 73.2% (75.4%),
employment - 78.1% (78.3%) and export 28.7% (27.2% view the table 1).
It is known that the GDP volume is the sum of the bulk of completed
work in all sectors of economy. Consequently GDP depends on the volume
of key indicators of small business and business in sectors of economy. In
work [3] there carried out an econometric analysis between the number of
small business entities and their share in the GDP of the Republic of
Uzbekistan.
In this paper, we are going to examine the relationship between the
main indicators of small business in the sectors of economy and the volume
of GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan. In order to study the relationship
between the main indicators of small business and GDP there used
multivariate correlation and regression analysis.
Endogenous (dependent) variable volume has been chosen in GDP (Y,
billion soums) of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The following indicators
(factors) are taken as an exogenous (independent) variable:
- the bulk of completed work by small enterprises in industry (X
1
, billion
soums);
- the number of people employed in the sphere of small business (X
2
,
thousand people);
- export volume of small enterprises (X
3
, mln. USD);
- the number of operating small enterprises (X
4
, thousand units);
- the volume of services of small business trade (X
5
, billion soums);
- the volume of completed work by small enterprises in agriculture,
forestry and fish sector (X
6
, billion soums).
To conduct the research there have been used the data of the above
mentioned indicators for 20 years (from 2000 to 2019) presented on the
website of the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics
[4].
Scientific research results in pandemic conditions (COVID-19)
47
Intercorrelation coefficients (i.e., correlations between explanatory
variables) make it possible to exclude duplicating factors from the model. It
is considered that two variables are clearly (strong) collinear, i.e. they are
linearly related to each other if the pair correlation coefficient
r(x
i
, x
j
)>0,8.
In this case, one of the duplicating factors is excluded from the regression
model. Thus preference is given not to the factor that is more closely related
to the result, but to the factor that is fairly close connection with the result,
has the smallest closeness of connection with other factors. Now on size of
pair correlation coefficients we will determine visible collinear factors. In
table 2 there given the correlation matrix of indicators of subjects of a small
business.
Now, by the magnitude of the pair correlation coefficients, we determine
clearly collinear factors. Table 2 below shows the correlation matrix of
indicators of small businesses.
Table 2
Correlation matrix
(
Х1 Х2 Х3 Х4 Х5 Х6
Х1 1
Х2 0,7483 1
Х3 0,7877 0,9191 1
Х4 0,9369 0,9264 0,9226 1
Х5 0,9935 0,8065 0,8271 0,9612 1
Х6 0,9931 0,7991 0,8315 0,9608 0,9971 1
)
Source: Author's calculation
Correlation matrix shows that the pair correlation coefficients
between X
4
and X
1
, X
4
and X
2
, X
4
and X
3
, X
4
and X
5
, X
4
and X
6
are greater than
0.8 and therefore, we exclude the exogenous (independent) variable X
4
from
the model. Similarly, factors X
5
and X
6
are excluded from the model. Thus,
the multidimensional regression equation has the form:
3
3
2
2
1
1
x
b
x
b
x
b
a
y
Due to a precise interpretation of the parameters there widely used
linear and power functions in practice. In linear multiple regression, the
parameters
k
k
x
b
x
b
x
b
a
y
...
2
2
1
1
at x are called the “pure”
regression coefficients. They characterize the average change of the result
with the change in the relevant factor per unit at a constant value of other
factors fixed at an average level.
Scientific research results in pandemic conditions (COVID-19)
48
The estimation of the closeness of the connection and statistical
significance in multiple regression is determined by the multiple correlation
coefficient R and the multiple determination coefficient D = R
2
.
In our case R = 0,996 and D = 0,993 means that 99,3% of the runway
variation is explained by the variation of factors X
1
(the volume of completed
work by small enterprises in the industry), X
2
(the number of people
employed in small business) and X
3
(export volume of small enterprises).
By means of Microsoft Excel program (Data Analysis) there
estimated parameters of the regression equation (view table 3).
Table 3
Results of estimation of regression parameters
Parameters
t-statistics
P-value
а=–12090,893
–
0,653525932
0,522699092
b
1
= 4,327465
26,39432384
1,28049E-14
b
2
= 4,1851659
1,302909624
0,211046106
b
3
=–4,1059851
–
0,719315116
0,482321768
F
r
F
cr
Fisher's criterion
830,3925871
9,1577981E-16
Source: Author's calculation
From table 3 it is clear that P-values of parameters of multiple linear
regressions are very small therefore all coefficients of linear model are
significant. Calculated value of criterion of Fisher (F
r
) is much more, than the
critical value of Fisher (F
cr
) and consequently we draw conclusion on
statistical importance of the equation of linear regress with a significance
value 0,99. The average standard error of GDP calculated on the basis of
multiple linear regression models constitutes 0,1292 or an error of
approximation of 12,92 %, and it is considered acceptable.
On the basis of regression models there made the forecast of aggregate
volume of GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2020-2024. At a choice of
values of factors Х
1
(amount of executed works by small enterprises in the
industry), Х
2
(quantity of people occupied in sphere of small business) and
Х
3
(volume of export small the enterprise) us have been specified average
rate of a gain for last 20 years and considered economic a consequence
coronavirus pandemics on activity of small enterprises for 2020 (view table
4).
Scientific research results in pandemic conditions (COVID-19)
49
Table 4
Forecasted value of GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Years
Volume
(billion soums)
Growth
rate
%
2019
(the
actual)
511838.1
2020
598200,8
116,9
2021
720007,4
120,4
2022
881045,7
122,4
2023
1121273
127,3
2024
1447874
129,1
Source: Author's calculation on the basis of regression model
It is known that in order to determine GDP growth rate, there counted
GDP deflator in relation to the prices of the previous year. During calculation
of the growth rate of forecasted GDP value, the GDP deflator index is not
accounted in relation to the prices of the previous year.
It is known that in the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2019 GDP deflator
index amounted to 119,2% in relation to the prices of the previous year [4].
If this indicator of the GDP deflator index remains then according to our
forecast, GDP growth rate will be: -1,9% in 2020, + 1,0% in 2021, + 2,7% in
2022, 6,8% in 2023and in 2024 it will reach + 8,3%.
Thus, small business directly affects formation of the GDP of the country
contributes to the competitiveness of national economy, promotes its
innovative development, stabilizes political situation in the country,
improves welfare of population and facilitates the republic enter the world
arena. That is why, in the Republic of Uzbekistan development of small
business is the most important priority task and for implementation of the
task the state embarks all efforts.
References:
1. The decree of the President of Republic of Uzbekistan «About Strategy
of actions on the further development of Republic of Uzbekistan» №УП-
4947 from 07.02.2017 y. Access mode:
2. The message of the President of Republic Uzbekistan Shavkata
Mirziyoeva
Oly
Mazhlisu
from
25.01.2020
y.
Access
mode:
3. Application econometrics methods and models in an entrepreneurial
activity. New tendencies in economic science and education (the third cycle
of the edition). Results of I stage of the Strategic plan of research work of
chairs: the Monography. - Т: the Tashkent branch REU of G.V.Plehanova,
2019. - p.151-155.
Scientific research results in pandemic conditions (COVID-19)
50
4. An official site of the State committee of Republic of Uzbekistan on
statistics. [An electronic resource]. Access mode
Ubaydullaeva Lily Shavkatovna, "Plekhanov Russian University of
Economics in Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan
ELECTRONIC DIDACTICS AS A FACTOR IN MODERNIZATION OF HIGHER
EDUCATION IN PANDEMIC (COVID-19)
L. Ubaydullaeva
Abstract: Global changes in society and education that have recently
occurred in pandemic due to intensive use of information and
communication technologies suggest a revision of traditional view of
didactics. The article considers subject and objectives of e-learning
didactics, analyzes terms used in a system of didactic support of e-learning
in higher education, and considers promising areas of e-learning and
development of didactic principles.
Keywords: e-learning, traditional didactics, e-learning didactics,
distinction parameters, didactic principles, didactics tasks.
The main direction of strategic development of the Republic of
Uzbekistan is comprehensive modernization as an important factor of
prosperity of the country factor, sustainable economic growth, providing
population employment. Building a strong base of successful development
of modernization process is impossible without participation in the process
of education system, a leading role in which belongs to potential of higher
educational institutions. In order to achieve the intended purpose in State
program 2020 "The Year of Development of Science, Education and Digital
Economy," there made a special emphasis on providing innovative
character, digitalization of education system in accordance with social and
economic challenges and digital economy.
Pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 affected educational systems
around the world, which led to the mass closure of schools and higher
educational institutions. Almost all higher educational institutions of the
Republic of Uzbekistan transferred to distance learning from March 16,
2020. Educational policy experts believe that after the end of pandemic,
educational institutions would not like to return completely to usual format
of training. In Uzbekistan there is going to happen a rise of online education.
However, many problems are also expected. A significant problem is
behavior of teachers and managers of educational programs in the context
