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ABSTRACT
Population growth is one of the most prominent demographic phenomena in the modern era. It also indicates the
dynamic characteristic of empowerment, the results of which are a basis that is strongly relied upon in economic,
social, and future planning by knowing the population size because the population community is characterized by a
dynamic (mathematical) nature, which led to the emergence of numerical increase or decrease. Therefore, there is no
static population community. On this basis, Kufa District was chosen to collect the population, which is determined by
a period of (1977-2020). The main objective of the study was to shed light on the fact of directing the population to
Kufa District and the local teams, according to its affiliated districts, by reading the numerical distribution and the sabi
in the district as a whole in addition to the environmental distribution, and then achieving this goal through the goal,
the population was distributed and eliminated for that period in the district as a whole, but what the district witnessed
in its increasing population size during the mentioned period, except that the treatment of growth in it varies
temporally and spatially with the stages of building the city continuously, and thus continuing the process of filtering
the population according to the administrative districts, in the district with an analysis of the reason for the difference
in population growth between the administrative districts in the district, which leads to the variation in population
Research Article
SPATIAL VARIATION IN THE POPULATION GROWTH OF KUFA DISTRICT
FOR THE PERIOD (1977-2020)
Submission Date:
December 08, 2024,
Accepted Date:
December 13, 2024,
Published Date:
December 18, 2024
Crossref doi:
https://doi.org/10.37547/ajsshr/Volume04Issue12-08
Dhifaf Riyadh Salih
University of Kufa, College of Education for Girls, Iraq
Dr. Hussein Jaaz Nasser Al-Fatlawi
Prof., University of Kufa, College of Education for Girls, Iraq
Dr. Jawad Kadhim Obaid Al-Hasnawi
Prof., University of Kufa, College of Education for Girls, Iraq
Journal
Website:
https://theusajournals.
com/index.php/ajsshr
Copyright:
Original
content from this work
may be used under the
terms of the creative
commons
attributes
4.0 licence.
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variance Between urban and rural areas for all periods of time, and the research was conducted on a collection of
statistical and planning methods and means through the processes of inventory, accuracy, observation, and all data
from their sources and analysis.
As for the most important findings of the research:
- The study showed that the Kufa district witnessed a large, existing, humid, and continuous population throughout
the study period (1977-2020). This growth was evident in the population registration record, and their growth was for
a reason. While the population in 1977 reached what was based on (50,815 people), it became in 2020 what was
(208,436 people) due to the impact of the natural increase due to the population's increasing population and another
due to migration from other governorates of the country.
The most important suggestions reached by the study:
Therefore, work on developing a brochure and population and functional policies to highlight the impressive
population growth witnessed by the district. This strategy must secure what the city seeks: the basic and community
infrastructure services and the success of the prominent force for residential areas.
KEYWORDS
Population Group, Population, Kufa District.
INTRODUCTION
Population studies are of great importance within the
branches of human geography, as they represent the
backbone of the development process in drawing its
goals and stages, and interest in them increased after
population growth (positive or negative), and what it
reflects in the present and future, and accordingly,
population growth clarifies the amount of change in
population size, as the size of the increase is due to
births, and the factor of decrease is due to deaths, in
addition to the factor of migration in its two types,
internal, which represents a factor of increase, and
external, which represents a factor of decrease in
population size, so it is necessary to identify its
components and calculate its rates and the possibility
of predicting it, and the extent of its impact on the
geographical area, and since the population society is
characterized by being a changing and developing
organic being, characterized by dynamism as it does
not remain in one state, and the large population
increase witnessed by cities is nothing but the result of
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rapid urbanization, which requires continuous
planning and setting population policies to confront
this steady increase, due to its relationship to many of
the problems suffered by urban residents, represented
by (the amount of need for educational and health
services, infrastructure and community) and the
effects it leaves It reflects all aspects of life, hence the
importance of studying the population size, growth,
distribution, age and gender structure, as it determines
the size of the workforce, the standard of living, and
the size of unemployment, and thus the amount of
need for services. Thus, population growth is the main
axis around which many studies and research revolve.
To achieve the study's main objective, the research
relied on descriptive, analytical, and quantitative
approaches to clarify the variation in the
characteristics of the district's population. The
description is indispensable to explaining the
phenomenon. At the same time, the statistical
methods used are based on analyzing the official
statistical data related to the Kufa District population
and extracting population growth rates accurately and
abstractly.
From this standpoint, the research will study
population growth in Kufa District, research the
development of population size and annual growth
rates, and show the extent of variation in population
growth according to its administrative units, in
addition to the numerical and relative distribution and
then show the distribution of general density and its
variation at the district level and know the percentage
of their concentration or dispersion, and based on the
results reached, the fairness of distribution is revealed
or not, and whether the population size is consistent
with the capabilities available in the district in addition
to the level of services.
The first section
1- The research problem
The main research problem revolves around the
following question:
(What is the general trend of population growth? What
changes have occurred in the patterns of population
distribution in the Kufa district, whether in their
numerical and relative distribution, density, or urban
and rural?)
2- Research hypothesis
The population of Kufa district tends to increase as a
result of the natural movement represented by births
and migration, in addition to the disparity in population
distribution according to the district's administrative
units, and this disparity, whether between its urban
and rural areas or in numerical and relative distribution
or density, lies behind these changes many natural,
human and economic motives.
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3- Spatial and temporal boundaries of the study area
The spatial boundaries of the study area are
represented by the area contained in the master plan
and the municipal boundaries of Kufa District, which is
one of the districts affiliated with Najaf Governorate,
which is located astronomically between latitudes (1-
32°, 4-32°) north, and the intersection of the longitude
arc (20-44° and 26-44°) east, in the northeastern part of
Najaf Governorate, bordered to the north by the city of
Hillah at a distance of (60 km), to the east by the
Abbasiya district at a distance of (6) km, to the south
by Al-Mundhirah District at a distance of (15) km, and
to the west by the city of Najaf at a distance of (10 km),
while its location in Iraq is characterized as marginal on
the edge of the western plateau and the far
southwestern edge of the northern section of the
alluvial plain at a distance of (10) km west of the
Euphrates River, Map (1), i.e. within the planned urban
area (municipal boundaries), with an area of (1752.57)
hectares, while the time limits of the study are
determined by the study period (1977-2020).
Map (1): The astronomical and geographical location of the city of Kufa in Iraq and the province
of Najaf
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Source: Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Water Resources, Directorate of General Survey, Administrative Map of Iraq and
Najaf, 2023, scale (1000000:1), and outputs of Arc Map 10.8 program.
Numerical, relative and environmental distribution of
the population of Kufa District
The term change in population studies is used to
indicate the difference, whether in terms of increase or
decrease, in the distribution of population phenomena
between two known dates, as the distribution of these
phenomena according to size, percentage or
environment, always remains subject to change as a
result of the difference in factors (natural and human)
and characteristics, in addition to the political,
economic and social importance of places, which work
separately or connectedly in drawing the features of
this distribution. Through quantitative change, it is
possible to know the change in the relative strength of
the distribution of population size in administrative
units, and thus reflect the image of the disparity in the
ability of regions to create attractive paths for the
population and determine population growth trends
(1).
A - The numerical distribution of the population of Kufa
District
Numerical distribution means the population size in a
specific area and at a specific time, meaning that this
concept sees the quantitative or numerical basis as the
main starting point for classifying ranks and
determining their levels without giving importance to
the percentage of what this size constitutes from the
total percentage of the population of the state or
region, and its causes and results differ in a specific
time and place according to a system of influences,
variables and characteristics (economic, social,
historical) (2), to interact with each other and form the
final image of the spatial distribution of the population,
while the relative distribution took another approach,
as it converted the population numbers into
percentages that together constitute the total
percentages of the population of the state and thus
classified each region according to the amount it
contributes to the total population (3).
The data in Table (1) and Figure (1) show that the
distribution of the population in the district varies
according to its administrative units, in terms of time
and space, according to the years (1977-2020), as the
population of the district in 1977 amounted to (50,815)
people. The district center came in first place with a
number of (47,062) people for the district’s sub
-
districts, followed by Al-Hurriya district (2,506) people
in second place, while Al-Abbasiya district obtained the
last place with a population of (1,247) people. In 1987,
the census data indicated that the total population of
the district rose to (83,197) people. The district center
accounted for (77,279) people because it represents
the district center, followed by the administrative units
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Al-Hurriya and Al-Abbasiya with a population of (3,614,
2,304) people, respectively. In the 1997 census, the
population of the district reached (107,732) people. The
district center maintained the highest percentage
among its administrative sub-districts with a number of
(97626) people, and Al-Hurriya district maintained its
superiority with a number of (5597) people, over Al-
Abbasiya district, which amounted to (4509) people.
As for the estimates for the year 2007, it shows that the
population size of the district increased to (147390)
people, while the population size of Al-Hurriya and Al-
Abbasiya districts approached (7658, 6171) people
respectively, while the estimates for the year 2020
indicate that Al-Kufa district achieved a qualitative leap
in its population size by (208436) people, the reason
for this is generally due to the relative improvement in
the general conditions and the health, economic and
social level and the factor of security and stability in the
district, which constituted an attractive factor for
many residents of a number of governorates. The
population size of the district center reached (133561)
people, followed by Al-Hurriya district (13010) people,
then Al-Abbasiya district (15019) people. The
population increase also varied during the period (1977-
2020) depending on the circumstances and conditions
witnessed by the district. The district achieved a
population increase of (32,382) people during the
period (1977-1987), where it reached its highest in the
district center with an increase of (30,217) people, then
both Al-Hurriya and Al-Abbasiya districts (1,108, 1,057)
people. As for the percentage of change during the
years (1987-1997), it came to (24,535) people, which
reveals a decline in the number of the district’s
population if compared to the previous period (1977-
1987). The reason is due to the return of many
immigrants to their home governorates, and the
conditions of the unjust economic blockade imposed
on the country in 1919, which negatively affected
population growth. The district center and its districts
achieved an increase of (20,347, 2,205, 1,983) people,
respectively, while the population increase rose to
(39658) people, during the period (1997-2007), with
(35935) people for the district center, (2061) people for
Al-Hurriya district, (1662) people for Al-Abbasiya
district, while the increase achieved during (2007-2020)
amounted to (61046) people in the district, with
(46846, 8848, 5352) people respectively. Table (1):
Distribution of the population in Kufa district according
to its administrative units for the period (1977-2020)
amounted to (61046) people in the district, with
(46846, 8848, 5352) people respectively.
Table (1): Distribution of the population in Kufa district according to its administrative units for
the period (1977-2020)
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Source: The researcher based on:
- Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Planning, Central
Statistical Organization, results of the general
population census for the years (1977, 1987, 1997) for
Najaf Governorate.
- Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Planning and
Development
Cooperation,
Central
Statistical
Organization and Information Technology, Population
Statistics Directorate, estimates 2007, 2020.
Administrative
Units
Censuses And Population Estimates / Population
Count
1977
Count
1987
Count
1997
Appreci
ation
2007
Appreciati
on
2020
Absolu
te
Chang
e
1977
ـ
1
987
Absolu
te
Chang
e
1987
ـ
1
997
Absolu
te
Chang
e
1997
ـ
2
007
Absolu
te
Chang
e
2007
ـ
2
020
Kufa District
Center
47062
77279
97626
133561
180407
30217
20347
35935
46846
Abbasiya
District Center
1247
2304
4509
6171
15019
1057
2205
1662
8848
Freedom
District Center
2506
3614
5597
7658
13010
1108
1983
2061
5352
Administrative
Units
50815
83197
10773
2
147390
208436
32382
24535
39658
61046
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Figure (1) Distribution of the population of Kufa District for the period (1990-2020)
Source: The researcher based on data from Table (1)
B - The relative distribution of the population of Kufa
district
It is one of the important measures that reveal the
relative values of the city's population reality, as it is
one of the most widespread and used methods, as it
shows the percentage of what affects the
administrative unit from the total population (4), that
is, it is a simplification of the numerical distribution by
converting those numbers into percentages that
together constitute the total percentage of the
population of the area to be studied, provided that this
percentage and its difference in time and space can
indicate the importance of the place and its
development in a certain period. It is possible to
analyze that importance and explain its reasons based
on different numerical and population census data. (5)
The relative distribution of the population of Kufa
district gives us a clear picture of the variation in their
geographical distribution at the level of the district
center and its affiliated districts during the period
(1977-2020) and from Table (2) and Figure (2) it is clear
that the district center ranked first with a percentage
of (92.6%) of the total population of the district for the
year 1977, as it alone accounted for more than half of
the district's population, this percentage is due to it
being the administrative center of the district where
many economic and commercial activities are
concentrated And various basic and luxury services for
the population, while Al-Hurriya district ranked second
with a percentage of (4.9%) of the total population of
the district, followed by Al-Abbasiya district with (2.4%)
of the population of the district. In 1987, the district
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center maintained its first rank with a percentage of
(92.8%) of the district's total population. The same
applies to the districts of (Al-Hurriya and Al-Abbasiya),
where the population percentage reached (4.3-2.7%) of
the district's total population. In the 1997 census, the
population percentage of the district declined to
(90.6%) of the total population of the district due to the
situation that the country and the district, in particular,
went through, which is represented by the
circumstances of the economic siege in addition to the
impact of the immigration factor. The percentage of
the districts of (Al-Hurriya and Al-Abbasiya) came to
(5.1-4.1%) of the district's total population. As for the
estimates for the years (2007-2020), it is noted that the
district center, despite its acquisition of more than half
of the district's population, the population percentage
declined from what it was during the years (1977 and
1987). By (90.6 - 86.5%) of the total population of the
district, while the district's two districts (Al-Hurriya and
Al-Abbasiya) achieved a significant increase in the
population ratio by (5.1 - 4.1%) of the total population of
the district is 2007, while the population ratio in Al-
Abbasiya district rose to (7.2%) of the total population
of the district, followed by Al-Hurriya district (6.2%) of
the total population of the district. The reason for this
increase is due to the large size of the district and its
expansion at the expense of the agricultural lands and
orchards surrounding it, in addition to the
improvement of economic opportunities in work, and
the establishment of many service institutions that
attract the population.
Table (2): Numerical and relative importance of the population of Kufa district for the period
1977-2020
Administrative
Units
1977
1987
1997
2007
2020
Population
Breeze
%
Population
Breeze
%
Population
Breeze
%
Population
Breeze
%
Population
Breeze
%
Kufa District
Center
47062
6
،
92
77279
8
،
92
97626
6
،
90
133561
6
،
90
180407
5
،
86
Abbasiya
District
Center
1247
4
،
2
2304
7
،
2
4509
1
،
4
6171
1
،
4
15019
2
،
7
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Freedom
District
Center
2506
9
،
4
3614
3
،
4
5597
1
،
5
7658
1
،
5
13010
2
،
6
Total
50815
100
83197
100
107732
100
147390
100
208436
100
Source: The researcher based on Table (1)
Figure (2) The numerical and relative importance of the population of Kufa District for the period
(1977-2020)
Source: The researcher based on the data in Table (2)
C - Environmental distribution of the population of
Kufa District
The study of the population distribution between
urban and rural areas is of great importance in
population studies, as it reveals the spatial differences
between them and the demographic, economic, and
social aspects that follow these differences (6). The
importance of this distribution lies in knowing the size
of the urban and rural population, their characteristics,
composition, and future expectations under the
influence of the natural and spatial movement of the
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population. The criteria used to distinguish between
rural and urban areas differed, and among these are
the population size of the settled area, population
density, and characteristics of the region. In Iraq, the
administrative and municipal character is the basis for
distinguishing between rural and urban areas (7). The
areas located within the municipal boundaries of urban
areas are considered urban, while those outside the
municipal boundaries are rural. The percentage of
urban and rural populations in Kufa District varied for
the period (1977-2020), as it becomes clear to us from
the data in Table (3) and Figure (3) the extent of the
development of the urban population in Kufa District
compared to the total size As for the district’s
population, it became clear that the number of urban
residents in the Kufa district in 1977 amounted to
(42,371) people, exceeding the number of rural
residents (8,444) people, for the total population of
the district amounting to (50,815) people. The district
center obtained first place with several (41,012) people
compared to the districts of (Al-Abbasiya& Al-Hurriya),
which obtained (911, 448) people respectively. In the
1987 census, the environmental distribution of the
population varied, as the urban population increased
by (69,867) people and the rural population by (13,330)
people, which also increased in size from its
predecessor. The district center also maintained its
first rank of (67,853) people, which indicates that the
gap has increased in size between the urban and rural
populations on the one hand and created a state of
imbalance between the district center and its
subordinate districts on the other hand. The reason for
this is the concentration of institutions, administrative
services, and government jobs in the center more than
in rural areas, in addition to the factor of internal
migration during the period of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-
1988), which resulted in the concentration of most
immigrants in urban centers. The urban population
increase in the district continued until 1997, as census
data indicate that the number of urban residents
reached (82,755) people. Al-Abbasiya district had the
lowest population (1,510), while the number of rural
residents reached (24,977) people out of the total
population of the district of (107,732) people. As for the
estimates for the year (2007-2020), they were
characterized by a high percentage of urban residents
in the district as a whole, reaching (99,316 121,476)
people out of the district's total population. As for the
rural population, it also surpassed it during the
mentioned period by (48,074 86,960) people, but in
general, it is less than the urban population in the
district. In general, it can be said that the increase in the
percentage of urban residents, at higher rates than
rural residents, is attributed to the change in the
population structure from a rural-agricultural character
to an urban character due to the availability of job
opportunities and the diversity of services in the city.
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Table (3): Environmental distribution of the population of Kufa District for the period (1977-2020)
Administrativ
e Units
1977
1987
1997
2007
2020
City
Countrysid
e
City
Countrysid
e
City
Countrysid
e
City
Countrysid
e
City
Countrysid
e
Kufa District
Center
4101
2
6050
6785
3
9426
7891
0
18716
9362
5
39936
10945
0
70957
Abbasiya
District
Center
448
799
904
1400
1510
2999
2482
3689
7017
8002
Freedom
District
Center
911
1595
1110
2504
2335
3262
3209
4449
5009
8001
Total
4237
1
8444
6986
7
13330
8275
5
24977
9931
6
48074
12147
6
86960
50815
83197
107732
147390
208436
- Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Planning, Central
Statistical Organization, Results of the General
Population Census for the years (1977, 1987, 1997) for
Najaf Governorate.
- Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Planning and
Development
Cooperation,
Central
Statistical
Organization and Information Technology, Population
Census Directorate, Estimates 2007, 2020.
The second section
1 - Population growth in the Kufa district
Population growth in the literature of demography
refers to the increase or decrease in the size of the
population during a certain period, i.e., it indicates that
it does not proceed in one direction; its movement may
take an upward or downward direction, depending on
the circumstances of the country in question. In the
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first case, the population size may decrease to a point
called (the replacement level). In contrast, in the
second case, the opposite may happen, where the
growth rate reaches a population explosion due to
high birth rates and low death rates, in addition to the
impact of the immigration factor (8).
It is noted from the data in Table (4) and Figure (4) that
the growth of the district's population varies from one
side to another. The annual growth rate of the district
center was characterized by variation during the
mentioned study period, as it was estimated for the
period (1977-1987) (5.05). Al-Abbasiya district achieved
the highest growth rate in the district at (6.3), followed
by the district center at (5.08), then the rate decreased
to (2.6) from (1987-1997). The reason is attributed to
the deterioration of economic and social conditions
due to the economic blockade that the country
witnessed, the decline in the natural increase rate, and
the cessation of migration to cities. As for the period
(1997-2007), the growth rate increased from what it
was previously at (3.5), as the population growth rates
in the district and its two districts converged, in the
achieved growth rate (3.1), which indicates an
improvement in the economic, social and health
conditions in the country in general and in the district
in particular. The estimates for the year (2007-2020),
indicate a population growth rate of (2.7) for the entire
district, with (7.08), (4.1), (and 2.3) for each of the
Abbasiya and Al-Hurriya districts, the district center,
respectively.
It is clear from the above that the population of the
Kufa district is constantly increasing, and growth rates
vary between the two districts. Still, in general, they
are characterized by an increase due to the natural
increase, the improvement of the health, economic,
and social level, and the low death rate, in addition to
the impact of internal migration and its impact on
population growth, as the city enjoys the attraction
feature (locational and functional), in addition to being
the administrative center of Kufa district and providing
job opportunities and services, which caused the
attraction of large numbers of them, especially the
southern governorates.
Table (4): Population growth rates in Kufa district for the period (1977-2020)
Administrative
Units
Annual Growth Rate of the District's Population *
1977
ـ
1987
1987
ـ
1997
1997
ـ
2007
2007
ـ
2020
Kufa District
Center
5.08
2.3
3.1
2.3
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Abbasiya
District Center
6.3
6.9
3.1
7.08
Al-Hurriya
District Center
3.7
4.4
3.1
4.1
Total
5.05
2.6
3.5
2.7
Source: The researcher based on: - Data from Table (1), * (9) The growth rate was extracted based on the following
equation:
R = ( T
√
𝑃1
𝑃0
-1 ) × 100
Number of years between the two censuses = T =
Population in the first census, P0
Population in the second census = P1 Annual growth
rate, = R
Figure (4)
Population growth rates in Kufa District for the period (1977-2020)
2- General population density in the district
The study of population density in the city has received
great importance, as it gives a clear picture of the
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nature of the population density distribution at the
very least, and thus the possibility of analyzing the
density variation of this distribution, and it is known as
a measure to know the extent of saturation of a certain
area with its population, and it is calculated by the
number of people in each km, and thus it highlights the
relationship between the human being and the area of
land on which they live, and thus reaching specific
numbers that clarify the extent of the population’s
tendency to concentrate, or disperse within the
boundaries of the spatial units (10), and then giving an
important indicator to the competent authorities and
city planners in drawing a picture of the distribution
and arrangement of functions in the urban space in a
manner that is consistent with the size of the
population to create an urban environment
characterized by the efficiency of its functions and
services (11). Since the study of the numerical and
relative distribution of the population through their
absolute numbers or percentages cannot give a clear
idea about the nature of their spread or concentration,
it may not be a valid measure for comparison between
administrative units (12). Relying on population density
indicators necessarily allows such possibilities to
analyze the picture of population distribution in the
city or administrative units because the population is
not distributed regularly due to its connection to
several factors that may be economic, social, and
natural and may overlap and be interconnected with
each other in most cases so that the population
appears to be a product of the interaction of urban
systems in cities (13). To obtain the general total, the
following formula is adopted (14):
(What is the area in the population total
number)/(Total area this area) General population
density =
The results resulting from applying the equation for
the general population density and the data in Table (5)
indicate that the total general density of the Kufa
district for the year 1977 amounted to (116) people/km
in the district as a whole, and the district center came
with the highest population density amounting to
(364) people/km, while It increased to (190) people /
km2 in 1987, the center of Kufa district maintained the
highest density in the district at (599) people / km2, and
the reason is that it is the central administrative center
of the city that contains most of the services and
activities, in addition to the influence of the religious
factor represented by the shrine of Muslim Ibn Aqil,
and Mitham Al-Tammar (peace be upon him), which
the researcher considers the basis for the existence,
continuity and development of the district. This factor
attracted the population and human gatherings. It
concentrated them directly in urban gatherings around
the shrine from ancient times. It is still a factor of
attraction and goal for immigrants from within the
district's borders, the governorate, and the rest of the
country's governorates. As for 1997, the general
density of the district, in general, exceeded its
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predecessor by (437) people / km2 by (756), (53), (25)
people / km2 for each of (the center of Kufa district,
and the districts of Al-Abbasiya and Al-Hurriyah)
respectively. As for the estimates for 2007 and 2020,
the population density rate of the district continued to
rise (337 476). The district center also continued to
excel at (1035 1399) people/km. It is noted from the
analysis of the data in Table (5) that the general density
of the Kufa district is increasing exponentially, which is
an inevitable result of the increasing population size of
the district, in addition to the importance enjoyed by
the district, which made it a population center for the
city of Najaf and then the governorate. In addition, the
district was affected by the expansion of the city of
Najaf at the beginning until the urban connection
between the suburbs of the two cities appeared.
Table (5): General population density of Kufa district for the period (1977-2020)
Administrati
ve Units
1977
1987
1997
2007
2020
Populatio
n
Are
a
Km
2
Gener
al
Densit
y
Km2
Populati
on
Are
a
Gener
al
Densit
y
Km2
Populati
on
Area
Gener
al
Densit
y
Km2
Populati
on
Are
a
Gener
al
Densit
y
Km2
Populatio
n
Are
a
Gener
al
Densit
y
Km2
Kufa
District
Center
47062
129
364
77279
129
599
97626
129
756
133561
129
1035
180407
129
1399
Abbasiya
District
Center
1247
85
15
2304
85
27
4509
85
53
6171
85
72
15019
85
177
Al-Hurriya
District
Center
2506
223
11
3614
223
16
5597
223
25
7658
223
34
13010
223
58
Total
50815
437
116
83197
437
190
07732
437
246
147390
437
337
208436
437
476
Source: The researcher based on data from Table (1).
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- Ministry of Planning, Central Statistical
Organization, Najaf Governorate Statistics
Directorate, 1997 Census Results, and 2017
Estimates, Table 15-32, p. 69.
ةطيرخ
)(
ةفاثكلا
ةماعلا
يف
ءاضق
ةفوكلا
Source: Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Water Resources, Directorate of General Survey, Administrative
Map of Iraq and Najaf, 2023, scale (1:1000000), and Arc Map 10.8 program outputs.
4- Population concentration of Kufa District
Population researchers have been interested in the
subject of population concentration, as they have
indicated that the process of population distribution
aims to reveal the relationship between the population
and the place where they are located, and to give an
image of the variation in their geographical
distribution. Therefore, trying to identify the degree of
population concentration (i.e. the increasing presence
of the population in a certain area) is a very important
matter, which aims to reveal the axes of population
spread and the places of their concentration (15). The
population concentration ratio is calculated in light of
calculating half the sum of the positive difference
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between the percentage of the area and the
percentage of the number of residents in each area or
any administrative unit in the city. The large population
ratio indicates the intensity of concentration, and with
its smallness, the concentration begins to decrease
and the phenomenon of dispersion becomes prevalent
(16). The negative sign indicates the unfairness of the
population distribution by increasing the area unit, and
the positive sign indicates that the administrative units
whose area capacity is still open to receive the
population. There is no doubt that knowing the
population concentration or lack of concentration or
their dispersion has implications and implications
related to With the development policies and projects
adopted by government departments and competent
authorities (17), and they can be extracted according to
the following formula:
C =
1
2
∑ (𝑋 − 𝑌)
Where:
C = population concentration ratio
X = represents the percentage of the population of the
region from the total population of the entire region
Y = the percentage of the area of a specific region from
the total area of the entire region
sum of the difference (18)
It is clear from the data in Table (6) that the
concentration ratio in Kufa district for the year (1977)
reached (63), which indicates some relative spread, as
the limited number of residential neighborhoods in the
district center and its two districts, and the relatively
small population led to a relatively dispersed spread,
i.e. spread within known boundaries in the district
center. As for the year 1987, the concentration ratio
reached (63.2), as it proceeded in the same general
direction as the population concentration pattern for
the previous year with some concentration in the
district center. In the year 1997, it reached (30.5), which
is an indicator of population concentration within a
known area. The relative decline in the population due
to the conditions witnessed by the country, which
were mentioned previously, led to the concentration
of the population within a known urban area. In the
estimates for the year 2007, the population
concentration ratio reached (61). It is known that with
the increase in the value of population concentration,
this indicates the severity of population concentration
and the unfairness of its distribution, and this is what is
noted in the estimates for the aforementioned year. As
for the year 2020, the concentration ratio reached
(108.4), as it indicates The ratio of the high
concentration also in the district as a whole, which
requires the population to leave the administrative
unit, to create a kind of spatial balance in the
distribution of the population, or to put controls that
limit the migration of the population of the district to
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avoid problems or environmental impacts that may
appear in the future.
Table (6)
:
Population concentration ratio in the district of Kufa for the period (1977-2020)
Administrative
Units
1977
1987
1997
2007
2020
Population
%
(Y)
Area%
(X)
1
2
𝑋
− 𝑌
Population
%
(Y)
Area%
(X)
1
2
𝑋 − 𝑌
Population
%
(Y)
Area%
(X)
1
2
𝑋 − 𝑌
Population
%
(Y)
Area%
(X)
1
2
𝑋 − 𝑌
Population
%
(Y)
Area
%
(X)
1
2
𝑋 − 𝑌
Kufa District
Center
6
،
92
5
،
29
5
،
31
-
8
،
92
5
،
29
6
،
31
-
6
،
90
5
،
29
5
،
30
-
6
،
90
5
،
29
5
،
30
-
5
،
86
5
،
29
57
-
Abbasiya
District Center
4
،
2
4
،
19
5
،
8
7
،
2
4
،
19
3
،
8
1
،
4
4
،
19
6
،
7
1
،
4
4
،
19
6
،
7
2
،
7
4
،
19
26
-
Al-Hurriya
District Center
9
،
4
0
،
51
0
،
23
3
،
4
0
،
51
3
،
23
1
،
5
0
،
51
9
،
22
1
،
5
0
،
51
9
،
22
2
،
6
0
،
51
4
،
22
Total
100
100
63
100
100
2
،
63
100
100
5
،
30
100
100
61
100
100
4
،
108
Source: The researcher based on:
- Table (2, 5).
From the above, it is clear that the distribution of the
population of Kufa district tends to be concentrated,
as indicated by the negative values obtained by the
district center and its two districts during the
mentioned period, which indicates the intensity of
concentration in contrast to the limited urban space
and the increasing population increase, which is a
reality that confirms the necessity of the intervention
of the concerned administrative and planning
authorities in understanding this reality and planning
for it in a way that achieves a state of environmental
balance.
The third Section
The impact of population growth on the urban
environment of Kufa District
The population mainly drives the city's functions and
urban activities. They are the ones who live in the city
and are affected by the service, planning, and social
reality. In return, the city is affected by the
demographic
characteristics
of
its
residents.
Therefore, it is clear that a relationship and
interconnected factors are mutually influential and
affected (18). The city's population grows due to
several factors, including the natural increase in
population, low mortality, migration due to economic
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development, and population attraction to its urban
area. There may be a period when this area needs to
accommodate the large population size, which casts its
shadow on the efficiency and sufficiency of its urban
services. The emergence of many problems, including
those related to the provision of potable water,
sanitation services, educational and health services,
and the increase in residential slums, among many
others, leads to increased administrative difficulties in
economic and social development in the city. Kufa
district has been growing rapidly for a long time, which
is inconsistent with the growth of urban jobs and
services. Economic, political, and social factors have
contributed to preparing the causes of growth that
were unplanned and undirected. It is considered one of
the cities that attracts residents due to its religious
function in the first place, which made it have a great
impact on urban and population attraction and
concentration, in addition to the concentration of
other urban functions, especially commercial ones, in
addition to public services, which led to an increase in
the continuous migration movement to it from various
other governorates of the country, which was
reflected in the increase in its size from a demographic
point of view and affected the natural functions of its
urban area, as life in it became a package of crises and
bottlenecks, the failure of municipal services, traffic
congestion,
frequent
water
cuts,
increasing
unemployment, the exacerbation of the problem of
urban poverty, the high cost of housing, the expansion
of the areas of residential slums and encroachment on
agricultural lands and surrounding orchards, which
worked to decrease the city's lung and its only outlet,
which makes the district unable to meet the
requirements of its current residents or those who are
added every year. And those are now looking for a
minimum decent living in a heated atmosphere of
population growth.
The ability of the district to provide is determined by its
ability to satisfy the needs and requirements of its
residents, which is linked to the scale of the population
and its ability to invest in the available economic and
service capabilities. There is no doubt that the
continued rapid and unplanned population and urban
growth, as we have indicated, leads to the destruction
of the city and its residents simultaneously, and this is
what we are trying to clarify. Therefore, the study
decided
to
present
some
recommendations,
alternatives, and realistic planning treatments that we
hope will work to address or mitigate the severity of
the problems resulting from the steady increase in the
size of the population and urbanization in the district,
which are as follows:
1. The necessity of working on developing population
and functional strategies and policies to confront the
rates of rapid population growth witnessed by the
district, and this strategy must secure the city's needs
for infrastructure and community services according to
the absorptive capacity of residential areas. 2- Taking
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demographic factors (population growth, population
density, population distribution) into consideration by
planners when drawing up population policies for the
district and linking them with the needs of the local
community on the one hand and economic and social
development projects on the other hand, to control
the direction of population movement and stability.
3- Working to increase interest in rural areas by the
competent authorities, especially paving roads to
reduce the gap between rural and urban areas, which
works to reduce the concentration of population in
urban areas and reduce the continuous migration
flows.
4- The necessity of a process of movement in service
planning in a way that provides services in terms of
quantity and quality that match the development in the
different population densities in the district's areas,
which achieves justice in the distribution of these
services.
5- Considering the distribution of development
projects across all governorates of the country in an
equal and equivalent manner and according to the
population size in each governorate to reduce
migration between the governorates of the country.
1- The study showed that the Kufa district witnessed a
large, rapid, and continuous population growth
throughout the study period (1977-2020). This growth
was evident in the development of the population
numbers and their annual growth. While the
population in 1977 amounted to (50,815 people), in
2020, it became (208,436 people) due to the influence
of internal factors related to the amount of natural
increase in the district's population and other external
factors due to immigration from other governorates of
the country. 2- The study revealed the spatial disparity
in the population distribution between the district
center and its two districts regarding their population
sizes. The district center had the largest population
size compared to its two districts (Abbasiya, Al-
Hurriya) when the district population in 1977 reached
(47,062) people, while it reached (180,407) people in
2020, which is equivalent to a third of the city's size,
which
affected
the
variation
in
population
characteristics and thus the amount of its entitlements
from urbanization and services under the influence of
factors related to the date of the establishment of the
district and its relationship to the population growth
factors referred to above.
3- The study concluded that the population growth
rate exceeded the speed of urbanization and services
growth, in addition to being the main influencer and
guide for the rest of the variables due to its nature as
the backbone and main driver of the urban
environment and structure.
4- The high percentage of urban residents in the district
compared to the percentages of rural residents during
the study period due to the administrative character of
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the district center, as well as the availability of services
compared to rural areas. 5- The rapid and unplanned
population growth has led to imbalances in the
mechanisms of their distribution, density, and
concentration, which resulted in the existence of
different distribution patterns between extreme
concentration in some years and relative spread in
others, which later led to the emergence of problems
in providing services in terms of their sufficiency and
efficiency, meaning that the provision of services was
not based on future planning visions about estimating
the population size and the city's need for them.
6- The lack of awareness of the population issue and
the departure from monitoring it continuously and not
finding appropriate solutions to the resulting increases
puts us in front of many very dangerous issues in the
long term, especially if the state of balance between
the number of people and the available resources is
not taken into consideration.
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