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FORMULATION OF EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE HOUSING SECTOR THROUGH
ECONOMETRIC MODELS
Sauxanov Janibek Kazievich
DSc, Professor, Department of Economics, Karakalpak State University named after
Berdaq
e-mail:
Qi’di’rniyazov Ajiniyaz Sherniyazovich
Researcher at Berdaq Karakalpak State University
e-mail:
Phone:
+99 890 709 37 57
Annotatsiya: Ushbu maqolada uy-joy fondlariga xizmat ko‘rsatuvchi boshqaruv
kompaniyalari faoliyatining tashkiliy va iqtisodiy jihatdan samarali ishlashini
ta’minlovchi mexanizmlarni takomillashtirish mazkur sohadagi dolzarb masalalarni
hal etish hamda belgilangan strategik maqsadlarga erishishda asosiy omillardan biri
sifatida asoslab berilgan va yakuniy foydalanuvchilarga uy-joy xizmatlarini samarali
yetkazib berish imkoniyatlarini yaratishi mumkinligi ekonometrik modellashtirish
vositalari orqali ilmiy asosda isbotlab berilgan.
Kalit so‘zlar: Uy-joy fondlari, tashkiliy-iqtisodiy mexanizm, ekonometrik tahlil,
istemolchilarga xizmat ko‘rsatish, bozor mexanizmi, iste’molchilar talabi.
Аннотация: В статье обосновано совершенствование механизмов,
обеспечивающих организационно-экономически эффективную деятельность
управляющих компаний, обслуживающих жилищные фонды, как один из
основных факторов решения актуальных проблем в этой сфере и достижения
поставленных стратегических целей, а также научно доказано с помощью
инструментария эконометрического моделирования, что оно может создать
возможности для эффективного предоставления жилищных услуг конечным
потребителям.
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Ключевые слова: Жилищные фонды, организационно-экономический
механизм, эконометрический анализ, потребительское обслуживание,
рыночный механизм, потребительский спрос.
Abstract: This article substantiates the improvement of mechanisms that ensure
the organizational and economically efficient operation of management companies
servicing housing funds as one of the main factors in solving current issues in this area
and achieving set strategic goals, and scientifically proves through econometric
modeling tools that it can create opportunities for the effective delivery of housing
services to end users.
Keywords: Housing funds, organizational and economic mechanism,
econometric analysis, consumer service, market mechanism, consumer demand.
Introduction.
Currently, a number of scientific and practical research and
conceptual studies are being conducted in the world aimed at improving the
organizational and economic foundations of housing fund management. The issues of
introducing innovative methods and modern technologies to meet the needs and
demands of the population for housing and communal services, improving the quality
and efficiency of services, forming the sector as a single coordinated system, clarifying
the level of state intervention in the sector, as well as optimizing the activities of service
organizations based on the principles of strategic management are becoming relevant
scientific directions today.
At the same time, reducing elements of natural monopoly in the utility services
market, expanding the scope of market mechanisms, and diversifying types of services
are also among the priority tasks of scientific research.
At a new stage of socio-economic development in the Republic of Uzbekistan,
the expansion of the housing stock and the transformation of the sector serving it into
a sustainable and effective management system are emerging as necessary issues. By
the beginning of 2023, the housing stock in the country will amount to 7,301.1
thousand apartments, and the utility services provided to them will fully cover multi-
story buildings, mainly in cities.
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This requires the formation of service enterprises with an effective management
system for the sector, the development of their activities based on the laws and
regulations of a market economy, as well as updating the population's perceptions of
the activities of housing property management companies, changing their attitude
towards the property they own and increasing their activity in the exploitation of
property.
The Concept for the Development of Uzbekistan until 2030 and the "New
Uzbekistan" Development Strategy for 2022-2026 set the following tasks: improving
urbanization policy, digitizing cities, improving the quality of construction and design,
developing modern infrastructure based on the "Smart City" concept, laying the
foundation for more than 19 million square meters of new housing instead of outdated
housing through renovation and housing programs, relocating more than 275 thousand
families to new residential areas, triple the volume of services over the next five years
by developing the service sector in the regions, as well as implementing modern and
effective mechanisms for managing housing funds.
The successful implementation of these strategic goals and objectives
demonstrates the relevance and practical importance of scientific research in this area.
Analysis of literature on the topic.
A number of research works, theoretical
studies, and practical analyses are being conducted by industry experts and the
scientific community to improve the living standards of the population, provide them
with modern housing, repair existing housing stock, and effectively manage it.
Russian economist A.R. Abdullina notes that "housing and communal services"
are an integral engineering infrastructure of the economy, which is interpreted as one
of the main supporting sectors that provide the population with necessary services. At
the same time, the scientist explains housing and communal services as follows:
"Housing and communal services are a complex of systems that provide a wide range
of communal services and uninterrupted provision of engineering and communication
infrastructure to citizens living in various types of settlements to ensure their living
comfort."
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In the experience of the CIS countries, advanced views in this area have been
deeply studied by specialists such as S.A. Kirsanov, M.N. Lomova, and K.S. Stepayev,
whose scientific works have extensively covered the possibilities of rational use of the
housing stock and the organization of effective management.
According to our local scientists R.I. Nurimbetov and his colleagues, as a result
of the introduction of free market mechanisms and the diversification of forms of
ownership in Uzbekistan, opportunities have emerged to own private housing and
exploit it in various directions. In particular, the issue of effective and purposeful use
of residential facilities is one of the current and urgent problems that require an urgent
solution.
In recent years, the housing crisis has become one of the most pressing problems
of state policy. This situation is primarily due to the obsolescence of the existing
housing stock, unreasonable formation of tariffs for services, failure of management
companies to fulfill their obligations to the population, untimely implementation of
current and capital repairs, as well as problems with the resettlement of residents from
dilapidated housing.
The effectiveness of the management system in enterprises providing housing
and communal services is closely related to the active participation of local self-
government bodies, as well as the level of consumer involvement in decision-making
processes.
Among the scientists who conducted research in this area in the Russian
Federation, the head of the Department of “State and Municipal Administration” of the
St. Petersburg Institute of Social Education, Candidate of Economic Sciences S.A.
Kirsanov in his scientific article “Foreign Experience in Managing Multi-Apartment
Buildings”, as well as M.N. Lomova’s “Experience of Foreign Countries in Solving
the Problem of Housing Management in Russia” and K.S. Stepaev’s scientific works
“Management of Multi-Apartment Buildings: Foreign Experience and Russian
Specifics” thoroughly studied and systematically analyzed the main areas of experience
of developed countries.
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Research methodology.
The article widely uses comparative analysis and
comparative approaches, in-depth analysis based on statistical indicators, comparison
of economic parameters, econometric modeling and practical modeling, logical
observation, scientific abstraction and theoretical generalization, analysis, and
synthesis, inductive and deductive reasoning, as well as scientific and practical
methods in the process of forming organizational and economic mechanisms for
managing housing funds.
Analysis and results.
Effective management of housing stock service companies
in the transformation process is a crucial factor in providing individuals and families
with affordable, yet high-quality housing. Such management serves as an important
mechanism for the rational allocation of financial resources, regulation of housing
construction and maintenance processes, and sustainable socio-economic development
in local communities. At the same time, today, many housing stocks around the world
face various problems and conflicts in their organizational and economic management
systems, which prevent them from effectively fulfilling their assigned tasks.
Improving the organizational and economic mechanisms of management
companies servicing housing funds is considered one of the main tools for eliminating
existing problems and achieving set goals. By improving management processes,
strengthening decision-making bases, and effectively implementing financial
strategies, housing funds can stabilize their activities, effectively use available
resources, and, most importantly, improve the quality of housing services provided to
their stakeholders (beneficiaries).
At the current stage, it is urgent to develop strategies to further improve the
organizational and economic mechanisms of the management entities servicing the
housing stock and implement them in practice. In particular, in this process, problems
such as uncertainties in financial planning, inefficiency of management structures, and
insufficiently efficient use of resources are attracting attention.
Through scientific and practical research and in-depth study of advanced foreign
and national experiences, this research aims to develop practical solutions and
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alternative policy proposals that will improve the overall performance and operational
efficiency of housing funds. The practical value of the research is to contribute to the
process of developing political decisions on housing construction, its financing, and
management.
The main purpose of this study is to scientifically analyze the organizational and
economic relations and their interdependencies in the management of housing funds in
Tashkent. During the econometric analysis, statistical models such as OLS (ordinary
least squares), Tobit, and SEM (structural equation model) with latent variables were
used using STATA 17.0 software. In order to better understand and optimize the
organizational and economic mechanisms of management, path analysis, indirect
effect, and mediation variables were used.
The Tobit model is a regression model designed to analyze the values of an
observed dependent variable when they are truncated or censored. In such cases, the
original values may lie outside the available range, which will introduce lower or
upper-bound effects in the analysis.
The following statistical hypotheses were put forward as part of the analysis:
H1: The joint effect of the independent variables on housing stock management
is statistically insignificant (p<0.05) — that is, there is no significant relationship
between them.
H2: According to the latent variable analysis, the impact on housing stock
management is statistically insignificant—no relationship was detected.
H3: There is no mediation relationship between the independent variables—that
is, there are no indirect effects or associations between them.
The primary focus of the research is to identify the interrelationships and
changing relationships between housing stock management and state reforms.
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Figure 1. Linear relationship between HF governance and state reforms.
The graph above shows a positive correlation, meaning that there is an increasing
dynamic between the management of housing funds (HF) and state reforms. Based on
the regression line shown in the graph, it is determined that there is a direct positive
correlation between the variables “HF_management” and “state_reforms”. In other
words, as the “HF_management” indicator increases, the “state_reforms” indicator also
tends to increase in proportion to it. This situation is clearly expressed by the
distribution of data points located around the line. This visual image clearly
demonstrates the regressive relationship between the data and indicates the presence of
a statistically significant correlation between them.
Figure 2. Linear relationship between HF management and company
collaboration.
Based on the analysis of this regression line, it can be said that if there is a
positive functional relationship between the variables "HF_management" and
"service_company_partnership", then as the "HF_management" indicator increases,
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the level of "service_company_partnership" also tends to increase. The results of our
study show that the line shown in the graph has a positive deviation (positive slope),
which indicates a direct and positive correlation between these two indicators. (Table
1). This result indicates that an increase in the level of "HF_management" leads to an
increase in the intensity and activation of cooperation relations with service companies.
Now, let us give some comments on the descriptive statistics of the variables.
The table below shows information on the cooperation between the management of the
Housing Fund (HF) and service companies. The table reflects the following response
options:
“HF_management”
(Housing
Fund
management),
“service_company_partnership”, “yes”, “time_problem” (time-consuming), "no", and
"Total". Based on the presented statistical indicators, Pearson's χ² (chi-square) test was
conducted, the results of which indicate the presence of a statistically significant
(significant) relationship between the variables. As a result of the test, the chi-square
value was determined as 60.70, and the probability level was determined as p = 0.0000.
Table 1.
Descriptive statistics of the factors of HF management and company cooperation
HF_ management
Service_company_partnership
yes no problem no total
PPP
Themselves
PO
government
86 229 201 516
41 109 63 213
43 41 75 159
0 453 62 136
Total
170 453 401 1024
In the cases where the HF management form is “PPP”, 86 active cooperation
cases were recorded, while in 229 cases cooperation was assessed as a time-consuming
process. The total number of examples within this category is 516.
In the category where the management form is “Ozlyari”, there are 41 active
cooperation cases, and in 109 cases cooperation was complex and lengthy in terms of
time. In this group, there were also 63 cases of no cooperation at all. The total number
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of observations related to the category is 213. Also, in the “HT” (private organizations)
management form, 43 cases of positive cooperation were identified, and in 41 cases
this cooperation was long-lasting. The number of cases where cooperation did not exist
at all is 75, bringing the total to 159.
In the "State" management form, no cases of active cooperation were identified,
but in 74 cases, cooperation was assessed as time-consuming, and in 62 cases, no
cooperation was identified at all. The total number of cases in this category is 136.
According to Table 2, for the “PPP" category in the HF control group, average
quality indicators were recorded in 406 cases, and low-quality indicators were detected
in 46 cases. Also, neutral cases and high-quality indicators were classified into 64 and
other categories, respectively. The observations in this group consisted of a total of 516
examples. In the "O‘zlari" control category, 66 cases were rated as average quality, 64
as low quality, 43 as neutral, and 40 as high-quality indicators. The total number of
observations in this set was 213.
Table 2.
Descriptive statistics of the correlation between HF management and private HF
cooperation factors
HF management
Private HF
middle-low does not affect high Total
PPP
Themselves
PO
government
406 46 0 64 516
66 64 43 40 213
118 1 0 40 159
82 0 21 33 136
Total
672 111 64 177 1024
In the “PO” control category, 118 cases were rated as average quality, only 1
case was rated as low quality, the number of unaffected cases was not specified, and
40 were rated as high quality. The total number of examples in this category is 159. In
the public administration category, 82 cases are classified as medium quality, no low-
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quality cases are identified, 21 are classified as neutral, and 33 are classified as high
quality.
The analysis of quality indicators revealed that in the “PPP” management group,
the number of partnerships with a positive impact was 74, those with a neutral (neutral)
impact were 344, and those with a negative impact were 58. In addition, in 40 cases,
the activity was not carried out because the partnership was not necessary or required.
The total number of examples in this category is 516. In the “O’zlari” management
category, the number of partnerships with a positive impact was only 1, neutral impacts
were 21, and negative impacts were 61. At the same time, in 130 cases, it was
determined that there was no need for partnership (according to Table 3).
Now let's consider hypothesis H1: The combined effect of all independent
variables related to HF management must be proven to be statistically significant at the
p<0.05 level. Otherwise, the results of this study will be considered random and will
lack scientific basis. The model, which included a total of 13 independent variables and
one dependent variable — HF_management (dependent variable), was analyzed using
the Tobit regression method. According to the results of the analysis, the mean and
standard deviation of the dependent variable (including PPPs, self-employment, private
entrepreneurship, government, and other quality indicators) were found to be 39.917
and 1.088, respectively. The regression results for all other variables are interpreted in
the same manner. At the same time, the Chi-square test had an index of 4235.404, and
since its probe > chi value was 0.000, hypothesis H1 was rejected, confirming the
existence of a statistically significant correlation at the p<0.05 level.
Table 3.
Descriptive statistics on the relationship between HF management and foreign
investor cooperation factors.
HF management
Foreign investors cooperation
JBQ positive negative necessity Total
PPP
Themselves
74 344 58 40 516
1 21 61 130 213
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PO
government
21 60 39 39 159
0 64 72 0 136
Total
96 489 230 209 1024
Now, we will test the hypothesis H2. At this stage, it is checked whether it is
possible to achieve high performance of HF management using a structural model
consisting of latent variables. For this purpose, the SEM (Structural Equation
Modeling) model was used in the STATA 17.0 program (Figure 3). In the calculations,
each latent variable combines certain independent variables into its structure. For this,
statistical methods such as Bartlett's test, KMO test, correlation matrix, orthogonal
rotation, Varimax index, and Marginplot are used. As a result, the new variable creates
new indicators on the coordinate axis in the range of values from −1 to 1. The results
of the regression analysis provide detailed coefficients, standard errors, z-values, p-
values , and confidence intervals for each independent variable.
In improving the economic mechanism of housing stock management, the main
focus should be on ensuring the rational allocation of resources and their effective use.
At the same time, the introduction of a transparent and accountable management
system is of great importance. In the process of managing the housing stock, clear
responsibilities and roles should be defined to ensure control mechanisms and regular
and accurate reporting on the activities and results of the fund. A transparent
management system serves to strengthen trust among stakeholders and ensures
effective and timely decision-making processes.
It was found that the changes that have occurred over the past five years have led
to an improvement in HF governance by 0.046 units with the participation of HF
operators, and this indicator is statistically significant at a p<0.05 value. At the same
time, the regression results revealed that the remaining variables were insignificant at
the p<0.05 level, indicating that they do not affect the organizational and economic
situation of housing stock management in Tashkent.
To further improve the organizational and economic mechanism of housing fund
management, it is of utmost importance to ensure the effective distribution and optimal
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use of resources. It is necessary to strengthen control mechanisms in the management
system and establish a system of regular and high-quality reporting on the activities
and results of the fund. This will not only ensure transparency, but also strengthen trust
between stakeholders, and also serve as a basis for effective problem-solving.
For a deeper and more flexible development of the framework for regulating
competition in the housing fund management system, the following measures are
necessary: creating systematic and effective legal mechanisms for resolving disputes
between market participants; ensuring transparency of tariff and pricing policies, and
strengthening monitoring; attracting investments and developing municipal
infrastructure; organizing processes for leasing or privatization of vacant facilities; as
well as effective monitoring of the implementation of economic and social indicators.
In our opinion, there is an opportunity to develop new organizational
mechanisms of management in the region based on intermediary models. Improving
the economic mechanism of housing fund management plays an important role in
improving the rational allocation and effective use of resources in the housing sector.
It is necessary to introduce a transparent and accountable management system, create
control mechanisms, and a solid mechanism for regular and accurate reporting on the
activities and results of the fund. This will help to strengthen trust between stakeholders
and ensure effective decision-making processes.
More effective results can be achieved by strengthening cooperation between
your home foundations and encouraging the exchange of experience, resources, and
knowledge in solving complex problems.
List of used literature:
1.
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ma’lumotlari. -
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Кирсанов С.А. Зарубежный опыт управления многоквартирными домами
// ЖКХ: журнал руководителя и главного бухгалтера, № 10, 2011.
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P.A., Smith, M.C., & White, M.E. (1985). Path model of reproductive disorders and
performance, milk fever, mastitis, milk yield, and culling in Holstein cows.
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Poulin, J.E., & Kauffman, S. (1994). Citizen participation in prevention
activities: Path model II.
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