MODERN EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Выпуск журнала №-26
Часть–7_ Май –2025
109
THE ROLE OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE DEHKAN FARMING SECTOR
ERGASHOV YASHNARBEK ISTAMOVICH,
Karshi International University
Teacher of the Department of “Economics and Engineering”,
ANNOTATION. Theoretical aspects of training for the development of the
agricultural sector are covered. The search for and implementation of new
approaches, models and methods for the development of the agricultural sector is
described in detail. The factors influencing the training of personnel for the
development of the agricultural sector were studied.
Key words: Agriculture, Agriculture, Farming, Horticulture, Econometrics,
Econometric Model, Functional Model, Complex Modeling, Evaluation Criteria,
Database, System Analysis and Forecasting.
Relevance of the topic. In world practice, scientific research on training
personnel in agriculture and improving the scientific and methodological foundations
of high-tech production mechanisms, complex modeling, and accelerating and
increasing the efficiency of production processes is gaining importance.
Introduction.
In the context of globalization, a number of scientific works are
being conducted on econometric modeling and forecasting of the development of
personnel training and production processes in agriculture, including improving the
systematic analysis of the production process of agricultural products, assessing the
important factors affecting them, the widespread use of econometric models in the
forecasting process, comparative assessment of statistical information systems, the
introduction of automated information systems for comparative assessment of
production indicators and their indicators, and the creation of an open data portal. In
this process, the main scientific directions are also the issues of further accelerating the
intensive production process, ensuring transparency and openness of statistical data on
MODERN EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Выпуск журнала №-26
Часть–7_ Май –2025
110
the volume of agricultural products, and improving the econometric and statistical
calculation methods through the effective use of international standards and principles.
In the social and economic study of the agricultural sector, it is of utmost
importance to theoretically reveal its essence as a category. In determining the
efficiency of the agricultural sector, it is important to determine the essence of such
interrelated categories as “agriculture”, “farming”, “homestead”. Therefore, it is
advisable to scientifically and theoretically study these categories and develop their
definitions.
The main goal of the social policy implemented by the state in our republic is
to create a favorable social environment and conditions in society that ensure the
satisfaction of the basic vital needs of the population through the development of the
agricultural sector.
The development of the agricultural sector depends, first of all, on the results
of the reforms being implemented in all regions and territories.
This study has extensively studied the problems associated with modeling the
development of the agricultural sector.
Theories of econometric modeling of the development of the agricultural sector
form the directions of state management in the socio-economic development of
regions. However, one cannot be limited to their study alone, since they largely rely on
the theories of economic growth of regions. It is necessary to search for and introduce
new approaches, models and methods for the development of the agricultural sector.
The role of the agricultural training sector in the current conditions is
determined by the following factors:
new jobs are constantly being created in the sector;
the sector is increasing its contribution to the country's gross domestic product;
due to the sector, the time spent on agriculture in households is reduced, which
improves the quality of life of the population.
Econometric methods do not negate simple, traditional methods, but rather help
to further develop them and analyze objectively variable outcome indicators through
other indicators.
MODERN EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Выпуск журнала №-26
Часть–7_ Май –2025
111
The importance of econometric modeling of the agricultural sector is
manifested in the following:
rational use of material, labor and monetary resources;
serves as a leading tool in the analysis of economic and natural processes;
makes it possible to make some adjustments when forecasting the development
of the agricultural sector;
makes it possible not only to conduct a deep analysis of the agricultural sector,
but also to discover new unexplored patterns in it. They also make it possible to predict
the future development of the agricultural sector;
along with the automation of computational work, it facilitates mental labor,
and creates the opportunity to organize and manage the labor of agricultural workers
on a scientific basis.
The increase in the economic well-being of our republic and positive changes
in economic life form a new type of demand, increasing consumer requirements for the
quality of agriculture.
The agricultural sector operating in our republic is improving its equipment and
technology, trying to meet the growing demands of consumers.
Previously, the agricultural sector was considered to be a complement to the
material production sector. The quality of agriculture was low, it did not satisfy
consumers and did not meet their needs.
In the current market conditions, agricultural enterprises and organizations
operating in our republic are required to provide offers that meet international
standards. They must deliver timely, convenient and safe AGRICULTURAL products
to consumers.
In such conditions, the problems of agricultural personnel training and
personnel shortages are:
Because in market conditions:
firstly, there are elements of risk and uncertainty;
secondly, resources are limited;
thirdly, there is competition between producers and consumers;
MODERN EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Выпуск журнала №-26
Часть–7_ Май –2025
112
fourth, to be able to predict the future state of economic indicators, etc.
In the context of the modernization of the country, it is necessary to solve a
number of problems in order to widely use econometric modeling to produce
agricultural products in the regions, taking into account the climate, consumer culture,
and market economy conditions of each region.
For example:
to eliminate disparities in the agricultural sector between regions;
to model the priority development of entities engaged in agricultural activities
in the regions;
to improve the competitive environment between entities engaged in
agricultural activities in the regions;
to introduce modern advanced technologies in the regions and develop
advanced technological processes that produce competitive products as a priority;
to more fully involve production funds and labor forces in the agricultural
sector in the regions, that is, to model the management of the limited resources of
society in the proper use;
to develop the agricultural sector and increase its production potential by
introducing modern technologies, developing entrepreneurship and business, and
achieving self-sufficiency and social equality.
Human life and labor are inseparable, because with the help of labor the
necessary means of life are created, and man himself, considered only as labor power,
is an object of nature, and labor is the material manifestation of this power. However,
the influence of social factors on the efficiency of social production is sometimes direct
or indirect, that is, on the one hand, the person himself is the object of direct influence,
and on the other, his labor is indirect. In conditions of incomplete scientific impressions
of collective practice, the prospects of the economy and social relations, the first step
in the formation of new directions of economic policy is the elimination of specific
contradictions and negative phenomena in production and the social sphere.
In order to assess the composition of the agricultural sector and determine its
classification, it is necessary to develop signs and criteria characterizing the tasks
MODERN EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Выпуск журнала №-26
Часть–7_ Май –2025
113
performed by the agricultural sector in the system of the reproductive process of the
economy and their specific features.
When predicting the future state of the agricultural sector, a simulation model
is built for each sector. To do this, the following tasks must be performed:
Formation of a database of agricultural sectors and factors affecting them;
Determination of the relationship between each agricultural sector and factors
affecting it, influencing factors;
Development of a separate model for each agricultural sector;
Verification of the developed models according to evaluation criteria;
Formation of a database forecast based on certain patterns of influencing factors
in forecasting through models calculated as significant;
Obtaining resulting factors based on the database and models.
The resulting factor and evaluation criteria are determined from the resulting
model.
To interpret the essence of this issue, we introduce the following modeling
symbols in functional form:
Dx
t
= f
1
(E
t
, M
o’t
, S
rt
, T
bt
, Au
t-1
)+W;
(1)
Here:
Dx
t
–
t
volume of agricultural production per year;
E
t
–
t
Land area
allocated for agricultural production in;
M
o’t
–
t
The amount of mineral fertilizers
allocated for the cultivation of agricultural products in the year;
S
rt
–
t
The amount of
water resources allocated for the production of agricultural products in;
T
bt
–
t
Number
of machinery used in agricultural production in the year;
Au
(t-1)
–
t-1
The amount of
demand for agricultural products in the year,
W –
external influencing factors.
One of the important elements of the development of agricultural sectors is the
need for the produced product, because if there is no need for the produced product,
there is no result from production. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the per capita
consumption of agricultural products. The level of per capita consumption of
agricultural products is determined as follows:
𝐼
𝐷𝑥𝑖
=
𝐷
𝑥
𝐴
𝑢
(2)
MODERN EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Выпуск журнала №-26
Часть–7_ Май –2025
114
Here:
𝐼
𝐷𝑥
– level of supply of agricultural products;
𝐷
𝑥
– quantity of
agricultural products;
𝐴
𝑢
– The number of people with a need for agricultural products.
This ensures the movement of the agricultural sector, the economic mechanism.
This method is widely used in analyzing and forecasting the development trends of
agricultural processes. Since it is considered that the resulting effects of the actions of
the main factors in development are summarized in the time factor.
Summary
In conclusion, agriculture is a complex socio-economic category. As a result of
theoretical research, it is necessary to improve the training of personnel for the
population in the agricultural sector. It is necessary to improve the scientific
methodological foundations of complex modeling of innovative projects in the
agricultural sector in practice.
Theories of econometric modeling of the development of the agricultural sector
form the directions of state management in the socio-economic development of
regions. However, one cannot be limited to their study alone, since they largely rely on
theories of economic growth of regions. In addition, it is necessary to search for and
introduce new approaches, models and methods for training personnel for the
development of agriculture.
REFERENCES
1.
Program of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan for the
development of the service sector in 2016–2020. // Collection of Legislative Acts of
the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2016, No. 9, Article 89, No. 27, Article 326; 2017, No. 15,
Article 257, No. 33, Article 863.
2. Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated February 7, 2017 No.
PF-4947 “On the Strategy of Actions for the Further Development of the Republic of
Uzbekistan”. // Xalq so‘zi, February 8, 2017.
3. Rakhimov A.N. Econometric modeling of the development of the public service
sector (in the case of Kashkadarya region): iqt. science. div. doc. diss. - T.: TDIU, 2020.
-165 p.
MODERN EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Выпуск журнала №-26
Часть–7_ Май –2025
115
4. Howard K., Eriashvili N.D., Solovev B.A. Marketing. Principles and technology of
marketing and the free market system: uchebnik dlya vuzov/ izd., pererab. I dop. -M.:
YUNITI-DANA, 2014, -623 p.
5. Econometrics: textbook. / Pod ed. I.I. Eliseevoy. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2013.
P.344.
