Ta'limda raqamli texnologiyalarni tadbiq etishning zamonaviy tendensiyalari va rivojlanish omillari
40-to’plam 1-qism Fevral 2025
135
FUTURE FORECAST VALUES FOR INCREASING WOMEN'S
ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY AND ENSURING WOMEN'S
EMPLOYMENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
Sauxanov Janibek Kazievich
Karakalpak State University, Department of Economics, DSc, Professor
e-mail:
Qazaxbaev Erkinbay Sarsen o‘g‘li
Researcher at Karakalpak State University
e-mail:
utepbergenovasamatdin@gmail.com
Telephone: +99 890 660 12 90
Annotatsiya:
Ayollar bandligini ta’minlashning istiqboldagi prognoz qiymatlarini
ishlab chiqish va Qoraqalpog‘iston Respublikasida ayollar egalik qilayotgan kichik biznes
subyektlari sonini prognoz qiymatlarini hisoblash uchun ishlab chiqilgan model natijlarini
ochib berilgan.
Kalit so‘zlar:
Model natijlari, ayollar bandlgi, ijtimoiy-iqtisodiy, faollik, xotin
qizlar, tadbirkorlik, prognoz, hisoblash.
Аннотация:
Представлены результаты модели, разработанной для разработки
будущих прогнозных значений обеспечения занятости женщин и расчета
прогнозных значений количества малых предприятий, принадлежащих женщинам в
Республике Каракалпакстан.
Ключевые слова:
Результаты модели, женская занятость, социально-
экономическая, активность, женщины, предпринимательство, прогноз, расчет.
Abstract:
The results of the model developed to develop future forecast values for
ensuring women's employment and calculate forecast values for the number of small
businesses owned by women in the Republic of Karakalpakstan are presented.
Ta'limda raqamli texnologiyalarni tadbiq etishning zamonaviy tendensiyalari va rivojlanish omillari
40-to’plam 1-qism Fevral 2025
136
Keywords:
Model results, women's employment, socio-economic, activity, women,
entrepreneurship, forecast, calculation.
Our government pays special attention to ensuring women's employment, increasing
their socio-economic activity, and creating broad opportunities for women to engage in
entrepreneurship. The work being carried out in this area and the changes resulting from
them were mentioned in the previous paragraphs of our dissertation work, and this
paragraph, using the available information, future forecast values for increasing women's
entrepreneurial activity and ensuring women's employment in the Republic of
Karakalpakstan were developed.
Ensuring women's employment requires increasing their role not only as workers
but also as entrepreneurs and managers. For this reason, wide opportunities have been
created for them to engage in entrepreneurship, and work is being carried out intensively
in areas such as training them in the profession, and providing preferential loans. As a
result, the number of women entrepreneurs is increasing year by year. Taking into account
the dynamics of changes in this indicator in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, we will look
at the growth rates in recent years.
Since this indicator has a specific growth rate in 2011-2023 and, in addition to the
general trend, also includes random changes, the results of a comparative analysis of
various models showed that using the ARMAX model is the optimal option. As a result,
the following model was selected.
𝑋
6
= 1817,0 + 0,67 ∗ 𝜀
𝑡−1
− 98,7 ∗ 𝑡 + 14,8 ∗ 𝑡
2
Here: X
6
- Number of small businesses owned by women in the Republic of
Karakalpakstan (unit).
Table 1
Results of a model developed to calculate forecast values for the number of small
businesses owned by women in the Republic of Karakalpakstan
Model 15: ARMAX, using observations 2011-2023 (T = 13)
Dependent variable: X
6
Ta'limda raqamli texnologiyalarni tadbiq etishning zamonaviy tendensiyalari va rivojlanish omillari
40-to’plam 1-qism Fevral 2025
137
Standard errors based on Hessian
Coefficient
Std. Error
z
p-value
Const
1816.96
151.773
11.97
<0.0001 ***
theta_1
0.679181
0.266751
2.546
0.0109
**
Time
−98.7066
49.7073
−1.986
0.0471
**
t2
14.7566
3.43095
4.301
<0.0001 ***
Mean dependent var
2052.538 S.D. dependent var
446.2530
Mean of innovations
3.956550 S.D. of innovations
105.7966
R-squared
0.939246 Adjusted R-squared
0.927096
Log-likelihood
−79.35522 Akaike criterion
168.7104
Schwarz criterion
171.5352 Hannan-Quinn
168.1298
Real
Imaginary
Modulus
Frequency
MA
Root 1
-1.4724
0.0000
1.4724
0.5000
A quadratic model was selected, and an additional factor was introduced to account
for random variations. As a result, a positive change was achieved in the reliability level
of the model and the adequacy of the coefficients (Table 1).
The z-statistics results obtained for all coefficients are at the required level, their
reliability is higher than 95%. The coefficient of determination is 0.94, which indicates that
the selected factors cover 94% of the changes in the resulting factor, and the remaining 6%
is due to other factors. These results justify the possibility of developing forecast values
with high reliability based on the model.
The forecast results indicate a rapid growth in the number of women-owned small
businesses in the region over the next year (Table 2).
Table 2
Forecast values for the number of small businesses owned by women in the
Republic of Karakalpakstan
Ta'limda raqamli texnologiyalarni tadbiq etishning zamonaviy tendensiyalari va rivojlanish omillari
40-to’plam 1-qism Fevral 2025
138
For 95% confidence intervals, z(0.025) = 1.96
Years
X
6
Growth rate
Standard error
95 percent interval
2024
3449
107,7
105,797
(3241,32, 3656,04)
2025
3657
106,0
127,891
(3405,94, 3907,27)
2026
4015
109,8
127,891
(3764,69, 4266,02)
2027
4404
109,7
127,891
(4152,96, 4654,28)
2028
4821
109,5
127,891
(4570,73, 5072,06)
That is, the growth rate varies between 6.0 and 9.8 percent, and the average growth
rate is 8.5 percent. However, during the period under study, the average growth rate was
6.0 percent, and the growth rate varied between 0.9 and 23.4 percent. It is precisely the fact
that the maximum growth rate fell in 2023 that caused the growth rate to be higher in
subsequent years and ensured an increase in the average growth rate during the forecast
period. In general, the number of small business entities owned by women in 2028 will
reach 4821 units, an increase of 1.5 times compared to 2023.
Also, the number of women working in small businesses and private
entrepreneurship operating in the service sector will reach 78,613 people, an increase of
1.07 times compared to 2023. Namely, the number of small businesses owned by women
is expected to reach 4,821 units, an increase of 1.5 times compared to 2023. High and stable
growth rates are also provided in the number of active individual female entrepreneurs,
with an average growth rate of 6.6 percent. The high growth rates of both of these indicators
and their high impact on the number of women in small businesses and private
entrepreneurship operating in the service sector justify the promising development of work
in these areas.
List of used literature:
1.
Schwartz, E. (1976). Entrepreneurship: A new female frontier. Journal of
Contemporary Business, 5, 47–76
Ta'limda raqamli texnologiyalarni tadbiq etishning zamonaviy tendensiyalari va rivojlanish omillari
40-to’plam 1-qism Fevral 2025
139
2.
Ahl, H., & Nelson, T. (2010). Moving forward: Institutional perspectives on gender
andentrepreneurship. International Journal of Gender and Entrepreneurship, 2, 5–9.
3.
Abritalina, A.S. Jenskoe predprinimatelstvo: sotsialno-ekonomicheskie motivy i
faktori: Dissertatsiya kandida sotsiologicheskix nauk: 22.00.03. - Saratov, 2006. - 153 p
4.
Gundry, LK, Ben-Yoseph, M., & Posig, M. (2002). Contemporary perspectives on
women's entrepreneurship: a review and strategic recommendations. Journal of
Enterprising Culture, 10, 67–86
5.
Brush, CG, de Bruin, A., & Welter, F. (2009). A gender-aware framework for
women's entrepreneurship. International Journal of Gender and Entrepreneurship, 1, 8–24.
6.
Kazakhbaev E.S. The role of women's entrepreneurship in sustainable economic
development of service enterprises. // Science and Education in Karakalpakstan. 2024
№3/2 532-535. ISSN 2181-9203
