Some Shocking Stories: The Behavioral Response Of Cancer Mortality To Spikes In Alcohol And Tobacco Consumption
Abstract
Tobacco and alcohol have long been acknowledged as carcinogens holding a critical role in the progression of a various cancers. Identifying the degree to which tobacco and alcohol can impact cancer mortality is necessary to developing effective public health strategies and mitigating risks with preventative measures. The goal of this study is to characterize the behavior of cancer mortality in response to shocks in alcohol and tobacco consumption utilizing aggregate U.S. data. This is the first study of its kind to examine the intertemporal relationship between cancer mortality and its determining factors within a dynamic system. Our results indicate cancer mortality displays persistence and its path dependency varies considerably between the shock factors. An unexpected shock to alcohol consumption results in cancer mortality taking about 17 years to return to its pre-shock level, whereas tobacco consumption shocks recover the original cancer mortality level in about 10 years. Alcohol has a more dominant effect on cancer mortality regardless of time dimension. As a result, policies that have been previously emphasized toward mitigating tobacco consumption may prove prudent in addressing alcohol as a public health concern with respect to cancer mortality.
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