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GLOBAL TOURISM EXPORT: IMPORTANCE AND CURRENT TREND
IN POST-PANDEMIC ERA
PhD
Bekmurodova Feruza
The University of World Economy and Diplomacy
ORCID: 0009-0001-1843-9519
Abstract.
Being the fastest growing economic industry, tourism became one of the key
revenue producers for most countries. Tourism not only provides a significant source of income
for business entities, but also impacts on employment and economic welfare both directly and
indirectly. This paper explores the vital role tourism exports play in world trade, focusing on their
contribution to GDP, foreign exchange earnings, and employment. It also examines pre and post
pandemic situation in the industry globally, and considers the challenges and opportunities faced
by the sector. The findings highlight tourism’s importance in driving economic growth and
underscore the need for sustainable practices in the industry through PEST analysis.
Keywords:
tourism exports, economic growth, world trade, GDP, global trade, the number
of arrivals.
GLOBAL TURIZM EKSPORTI: PANDEMIYADAN KEYINGI DAVRDA AHAMIYATI VA
HOZIRGI TENDENSIYASI
PhD
Bekmurodova Feruza
Jahon iqtisodiyoti va diplomatiya universiteti
Annotatsiya.
Eng tez rivojlanayotgan iqtisodiy sanoat bo‘lgan turizm ko‘pchilik
mamlakatlar uchun asosiy daromad ishlab chiqaruvchilardan biriga aylandi. Turizm nafaqat
tadbirkorlik subyektlariga katta daromad manbai, balki aholi bandligi va iqtisodiy farovonligiga
ham bevosita va bilvosita ta’sir ko‘rsatadi. Ushbu maqolada turizm eksportining jahon savdosida
o‘ynaydigan muhim roli o‘rganilib, ularning YaIM, valyuta tushumlari va bandlikka qo‘shgan
hissasiga e’tibor qaratiladi. Shuningdek, u global miqyosda sanoatdagi pandemiyadan oldingi va
keyingi vaziyatni o‘rganadi va sektor duch keladigan muammolar va imkoniyatlarni ko‘rib
chiqadi. Topilmalar turizmning iqtisodiy o‘sishni ta’minlashdagi ahamiyatini va PEST tahlili
orqali sanoatda barqaror amaliyotlar zarurligini ta’kidlaydi.
Kalit so‘zlar:
turizm eksporti, iqtisodiy o‘sish, jahon savdosi, YaIM, global savdo, kelganlar
soni.
UOʻK: 332.379.85
32-40
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ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЙ ЭКСПОРТ ТУРИЗМА: ЗНАЧЕНИЕ И ТЕКУЩАЯ
ТЕНДЕНЦИЯ В ЭПОХУ ПОСЛЕ ПАНДЕМИИ
PhD
Бекмуродова Феруза
Университет мировой экономики и дипломатии
Аннотация.
Будучи самой быстрорастущей экономической отраслью, туризм
стал одним из основных источников дохода для большинства стран. Туризм не только
обеспечивает значительный источник дохода для субъектов предпринимательства, но
и влияет на занятость и экономическое благосостояние как напрямую, так и косвенно. В
этой статье исследуется важная роль экспорта туризма в мировой торговле, с упором
на его вклад в ВВП, валютные поступления и занятость. В ней также изучается
ситуация в отрасли до и после пандемии во всем мире и рассматриваются проблемы и
возможности, с которыми сталкивается сектор. Результаты подчеркивают важность
туризма в обеспечении экономического роста и необходимость устойчивых практик в
отрасли с помощью анализа PEST.
Ключевые слова:
экспорт туризма, экономический рост, мировая торговля, ВВП,
глобальная торговля, количество прибытий.
Introduction.
The global tourism industry is one of the most significant and rapidly changing sectors in
world trade, contributing vitally to the economic prosperity of countries. It has significant effect
on majority of macroeconomic indicators, such as gross domestic product, overall export and
import trends, foreign exchange earnings and investment. Thus, tourism is often regarded as a
leading export category for many countries, particularly in developing economies. The purpose
of this research is to analyze how tourism is changing globally, what challenges are faced, and
is there opportunities to improve the current situation.
Literature review.
Tourism industry and its effect on economic growth was researched by many scholars.
For instance, Rasool and Maqbool learned connection of tourism export and economic growth
in
BRICS
countries during 1995-2015 using international tourism receipts, financial
development and GDP per capital as variables (Rasool et al., 2021). Another research which
studied the group of countries for the nexus of tourism impact was made for
Western Balkan
countries
(Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYROM, Montenegro and Serbia) for the
period of 1998-2014 (Nasir et al., 2017).
In the examination of countries with substantial
tourism export shares, Isabel.C and colleagues investigated the impact of tourism export on the
economic growth trajectories of
Spain
and
Italy
. Their study spanned from 1964 to 2000 for
Spain and from 1954 to 2000 for Italy (Cortes et al., 2009)
.
The research incorporated a range
of variables to assess this relationship, including:
economic growth measured by Real GDP per
cap, physical capital measured by investments, tourism export, overall export, human capital
measured by the quota of active population with secondary level of education for the Spanish
case and by the quota of population with secondary level of education for the Italian case.
The impact of tourism industry on unemployment rates, how people earn and effects on
their well beings was learned by Alegre et al. (2018), Sofronov (2018). Post-pandemic situation
of tourism in the world was learned by Stankov et al. (2020), Bhuiyan et al. (2021), Benjamin
et al. (2020). They discussed how the situation was before pandemic, and how tourism changed
during post-pandemic era. In addition to these research works, this article will also try to
adhere the economic situation of tourism globally.
Analysis and discussion of results.
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Tourism export became one of the most up beating export form for countries despite of
their economic situation. In the world market tourism export plays significant role on economy
and in other fields as well, due to the fact that it has major impact on main macroeconomic
indicators.
Economic impacts associated with tourism arise as a result of the demand and
supply connection in the industry. Economic impact of tourism export is seen on the
macroeconomic indicators, such as Gross domestic product, total export share, investment
spending, government spending, consumption, trade share, employment, inflation, tax revenue
and others.
Graph 1. International tourism GDP
(Report, 2022)
Source:
complied by author based on Tourism and Travel Economic Impact.
Over the past 50 years, tourism has been developing rapidly and steadily until 2008,
during international monetary crisis, with 2 years of interval for recovery. However, the
unexpected event of global pandemic in 2019 shattered global tourism more than the previous
global phenomenon. Starting from tourism export share on global GDP, it can be detected that
steady increase was bothered by global pandemic in 2019.
From 2017 to 2019, the tourism GDP share experienced prosperous growth, increasing
by approximately 10.4% each year. However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 had
a significant impact on the global tourism industry, leading to a noticeable decrease in expected
global tourism GDP from almost 11 to 6%. The pandemic resulted in travel restrictions, border
closures, and a sharp decline in international travel, causing a severe shock to the tourism
sector worldwide. Despite the pre-pandemic growth trends, the global tourism GDP had shown
a more modest average growth rate of around 4% in the years leading up to the pandemic.
As the tourism shock happened during COVID 19, affecting all especially tourism
dependent countries, they faced economic downturn for the period of 3 years. Slow but careful
recovery made tourism come to its pre-pandemic strength again. Nonetheless, this trend is not
similar for all countries, some regions are still struggling to recover, making it barrier for
further foreign exchange earnings.
As tourism industry faced some challenges, not only tourism export share in GDP, but
also it is impact on unemployment rate also changed drastically.
Tourism effects to employment rate
directly
and
indirectly.
Direct effect is considered
when people work related industry, such as hotels, transportation for tourists, travel guides
and etc. indirect contribution can be seen when people who are not related to the industry serve
for tourists. For instance, a shop owner sells something for foreign visitors, or car washing
services was utilized by non-locals. Economically speaking, direct contribution of tourism can
be calculated, as it is easy and will show reliable results. The second graph shows the direct
contribution of tourism on employment in the world.
3,6
3,7
3,9
4
4,1
3,9
3,9
4
10,4
10,3
5,3
6,1
7,6
9,2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
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Graph 2.
Tourism impact on global employment
(Report, 2022)
Source:
complied by author based on Tourism and Travel Economic Impact.
Between the early 2000s and 2014, the global tourism sector employed approximately
250 to 290 million people. From 2015 to early 2019, leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, this
number steadily increased to around 340 million. However, the onset of the pandemic caused
a sharp decline in employment within the sector, driven by the halt in international travel and
reduced tourist activity. This culminated in a substantial reduction of nearly 60 million
employment opportunities, notably impacting nations predominantly reliant on tourism, such
as those in the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe.
This is because the process of laying off
existing staff and onboarding new personnel takes time.
Graph 3. International Tourist Arrivals
(www.unwto.org, 2022)
Source:
complied by author based on the World Bank and UNWTO data.
Another main tourism related macroeconomic indicator is the tourism flow. Tourism flow
is often regarded as the number of visitors to the country with tourism or tourism related
purposes. Globally, the number of people who traveled with touristic purposes are quite high,
as people prefer to travel in order to learn different cultures, or simply enjoy other destinations.
Playing a crucial role, main tourism receipts relates to the number arrivals globally.
Tourism export share, share on employment and receipts are directly connected with the
number of foreign arrivals. Globally in 2023, 1.3 bln people traveled, slightly reaching to the
pre-pandemic numbers slowly (see graph 3). as the tourism arrivals has interesting tendency,
we would like to divide it into 3 major group of years. First: developing years – this stage
contains of 2010 – 2014 years. During these years average tourist arrival was 1 mln people.
Second: Prosperity years -from 2015 till 2019 tourism had the most prosperous years in its
history having approximately 1,4 bln visitors for each year. Third: Recovery – because of COVID
19 global pandemic in the second half of the 2019 tourism started to see biggest downfall
among all other sectors in the world, losing its 50 % of GDP, export, employment and arrivals.
Main question stays as which countries people visit most. Did this trend changed after
pandemic or people still choosing same destinations?
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3
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The data provided by UNWTO highlights the significant concentration of international
tourist arrivals in certain regions of the world, with Europe emerging as a particularly popular
destination for travelers. Among the ten most visited countries globally, six are located in
Europe, namely France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Germany, and Austria (see graph 4).
Graph 4. Top 10 visited countries in 2023 1. (Statista, 2023)
Source:
complied by author based on UNWTO and Statista.com data.
France stands out as the top-ranked destination, attracting a staggering 48.4 million
international visitors on average. This underscores the country’s appeal as a premier tourist
destination, known for its iconic landmarks, cultural attractions, and gastronomic delights.
Italy, Spain, Greece, Germany, and Austria also feature prominently in the list of most
visited countries, with each welcoming an average of 15 million international visitors annually.
These countries boast diverse tourism offerings, ranging from historical sites and architectural
marvels to scenic landscapes and vibrant cultural scenes.
Notably, among Asian and Middle Eastern countries, only the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
and Turkey are represented in the rankings, with both countries welcoming an average of 11.5
million international visitors each year. The UAE, particularly Dubai, is renowned for its
luxurious resorts, shopping malls, and entertainment attractions, while Turkey offers a rich
tapestry of history, culture, and natural beauty. The concentration of international tourist
arrivals in Europe reflects the region’s allure as a tourist destination, characterized by its rich
cultural heritage, diverse landscapes, and well-developed tourism infrastructure. However, the
inclusion of countries like the UAE and Turkey in the rankings underscores the growing
importance of other regions in the global tourism landscape. Overall, the analysis of
international tourist arrivals highlights the diversity of tourist destinations worldwide and
underscores the significance of tourism as a driver of economic growth, cultural exchange, and
international cooperation.
Analyzing main tourism related macroeconomic indicators, it can be deducted that, global
pandemic changed the scope of tourism. It created some challenges, which resulted in increase
in domestic tourism than international.
Several factors may have contributed to this slower
growth.
Following reasons shows why tourism export was increasing steadily but slowly before
COVID 19:
1)
Difficulties in visa and documentation
–
before 2018, due to lack of security and
trust cross border activities required a lot of documentation. As a result people preferred
inbound tourism than outbound.
2)
Global crises
- happening in 2008-2009 global crisis resulted in shortage of income
in people. Thus, people directed their money to meet their basic needs, instead of secondary
needs.
3)
Climate problems
–
frequent environmental problems in Japan, Brazil, Australia
made people less interested in cross
–
border activities, concerning about their own state of
health.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
France
Spain
Mexico
Italy
Turkey
USA
Greece
Austria
UAE
Germany
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4)
Air traffic disruptions
–
in some point it is linked to climate problems. More
weather inconvenience, the more airline disruptions.
5)
Difficult cross border set of laws
–
as it mentioned before, documentation for
crossing the border of one country to another country was difficult. Political issues, protection
laws of countries became a reason of complex set of laws.
6)
High taxations
–
before 2018, travel agencies paid high amount of tax in some
countries, resulting less interest in working in the tourism sector. Year by year this indicator is
decreasing, because of how important tourism export became.
7)
Price discriminations
–
in many countries locals in service sector set different
price for foreigners leading to artificial increase of price. It caused a lot of problems for tourists
economically.
As it has been more than 3 years for global pandemic, most countries already recovered
from shock, while others still struggling. Here are some strategies countries made in order to
minimize tourism shock of pandemic:
1)
Advanced technology in tourism sector
–
recent increase in tourism technologies
and advanced innovations made people curious about travelling.
2)
Decrease in tourism prices
–
preventing artificial price discrimination by locals
made foreigners more comfortable to visit different countries.
3)
High travel promotions
–
marketing in tourism developed and countries started to
promote tourism more in global scope. Showing what they can offer for visitors increased
global share of tourism export in GDP.
4)
Tough check-up and health security
-after COVID 19, before entering to the
country visitors are checked thoroughly not only for security purposes, but also in order to
maintain health rate. Countries are offering even health services for free for visitors as a means
of attracting tourists. It made people believe and concern less about health, and travel freely.
5)
Better infrastructure
–
change and improvement of tourism infrastructure made
travel easy and convenient.
6)
Easy access to booking and package holidays
–
in order to attract visitors on a
large quantity, countries made booking better and easier.
7)
Psychologic effect of Covid 19
–
linked to crisis in 2008 and COVID 19, people
realized that work never ends, while life is not long enough to wait. Their interest towards
tourism increased and not only alone, but also with family or friends trip increased to.
In order to see all aspects of tourism industry globally, PEST analysis was conducted.
Pre and Post-Pandemic PEST Analysis of global tourism industry:
1.
Political
:
Pre-Pandemic
: Tourism prospered due to stable political conditions, international
agreements. Governments often prioritized tourism as a major economic driver, especially in
developing countries. Only some regions like Africa and Middle East struggled due to little
political image globally.
Post-Pandemic
: entry to another country has changed. Countries reformed new visa
regulations, and strict health protocols. Additionally, political tension between countries also
worsened, resulting negatively for people’s travel choice. For example, political situations in
Palestine, Russia changed visitors’ preference from international to domestic travel.
2.
Economic
:
Pre-Pandemic
: Global tourism had strong economic momentum, with rising disposable
income and lower-cost travel options, such as budget airlines and online booking platforms.
Emerging economies saw significant growth in outbound tourism, creating a more balanced
flow of visitors globally. However, economic disparities in certain regions restricted access to
tourism for some populations.
Post-Pandemic
: The pandemic led to a dramatic decline in tourism revenue, causing
massive losses for tourism-dependent economies. Economic recovery is slow, with many
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businesses still facing financial strain. However, digitalization and remote working have led to
the rise of "workcation" tourism, where people combine travel with remote work. There is also
a shift towards domestic tourism, as international travel remains restricted in some regions.
3.
Social
:
Pre-Pandemic
: social media played vital role for cultural awareness and exchange.
People traveled across the world for learning new cultures and lifestyle. It surged international
travel significantly. Eco-tourism, adventure and youth tourism became leading tourism types.
Post-Pandemic
: Social behaviors have shifted, with a stronger focus on health, hygiene,
and safety. People are now more conscious about the risks associated with travel and prefer
destinations with stringent safety measures.
4.
Technological
:
Pre-Pandemic
: before global lockdown, tourism industry was being introduced with
advanced technologies, such as online booking platforms, mobile applications, comfortable
transportation (UBER, YANDEX), peak era of B and B. Advances like low-cost airlines, faster
trains made travel more affordable and accessible.
Post-Pandemic
: technologic advances accelerated rapidly. With advanced health check-
ins, passport reforms, digital documentation tourism became safer. Application of AI system in
tourism also made some services easier.
Table 1
Solutions to the problems tourism industry is facing:
Solutions
Definition
Green Tourism
Strategies
In order to deal with environmental matters, encouraging eco-friendly tourism that
minimizes environmental footprints would be effective method. Through eco-friendly
accommodations, transportation, and tourism activities pollution of touristic areas
may be minimized. Implementing policies that prioritize sustainability and green
certification for businesses in the tourism sector will address tourism challenges.
Controlling Over-
tourism
Evolving strategies like spreading tourist demand to lesser-known destinations,
limiting tourist numbers at peak times, and promoting longer stays to reduce the
pressure on over-exploited areas will reduce the over-demand in tourism
destinations.
Technological
Innovation
Using technology to address challenges like overcrowding or safety concerns. Virtual
tourism, contactless services, and digital health passports could be useful tools for
creating a safer and more efficient travel experience.
Advanced Crisis
Strategies
Developing better preparedness plans for emergencies like pandemics, natural
disasters, and political instability. This includes enhanced health protocols, flexible
travel insurance, and rapid-response systems for tourists.
Diversification
Encouraging tourism beyond the typical destinations to balance out seasonal
fluctuations. Countries can promote off-season travel and niche tourism markets like
eco-tourism, wellness tourism.
Cultural Preservation
Programs
Promoting cultural sensitivity training for tourists and tour operators, as well as
investing in preserving heritage sites. Developing partnerships between governments,
local communities, and international organizations can help protect cultural integrity.
Source:
complied by author.
Analyzing the global tourism position through PEST analysis dividing it into pre and post
pandemic era showed how the situation is going currently. Whether people’s preferences
changed, or it is still the same. We think there are some
challenges
the global tourism is facing
currently.
1.
Mistrust and security issues:
people started to be careful with the destination they
want to visit. Main priority changed from adventure and relaxation to health and security.
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People check overall health capacity of the country, whether it is safe medically or not. In
fact, not only the country should be safe for health, but also politically stable and out of any
disagreements. This may lead to disruptions in increase for tourism industry for upcoming
years.
2.
Over-tourism
: some cities are overly crowded with tourism leading to
environmental damage, cultural degradation, and strain on local resources. This results in
a negative impact on both the environment and the local community.
3.
Environmental Impact
: main damage for environment from tourism is soil and
water pollution. Throwing used plastic and litters to water areas or even local places will
result in extra cost for countries.
4.
Seasonality
: Many tourist destinations experience extreme seasonal fluctuations
in visitor numbers, leading to periods of overcrowding followed by quiet off-seasons. This
can cause economic instability for businesses dependent on tourism.
Recovery period for tourism industry globally may have not been enough for all
regions. As challenges above show how much problems tourism is facing and how severely
important they are, it is important to give some solutions to tackle them. Considering
current situation, tourism industry globally has great opportunity to improve. In fact if
following solutions are considered, tourism may keep its impact on global economy
positively.
Conclusion and suggestions.
The tourism industry faces multiple challenges, from over-tourism and environmental
damage to political instability and health crises. However, solutions such as sustainable
practices, crisis management strategies, and technological innovation can help mitigate
these issues. The PEST analysis shows how global tourism has evolved due to political,
economic, social, and technological changes, particularly in response to the COVID-19
pandemic. Moving forward, the industry must adapt to new realities while prioritizing
sustainability, safety, and digitalization to ensure long-term growth.
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