Authors

  • Juraev Subkhon
    Master’s Degree student at UWED
  • Dalabaev Umurdin
    A Systematic Analysis and Mathematical Modeling Department, University of World Economy and Diplomacy (UWED

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.71337/inlibrary.uz.aijmr.118795

Abstract

Industrial policy serves as a cornerstone for economic transformation in developing countries, offering a deliberate framework through which governments can guide structural change, nurture competitive industries, and integrate more deeply into global value chains. In the context of globalization—where technological innovation, shifting consumer preferences, and complex trade relationships continually reshape market access—relying solely on market forces often leaves rising economies vulnerable to commodity price volatility and external shocks. For Uzbekistan, with its rich historical legacy as a Silk Road crossroads and abundant natural endowments, an astutely crafted industrial policy has become the vehicle for moving beyond traditional raw material exports toward higher value manufactured goods.


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Acumen:

International Journal of

Multidisciplinary Research

ISSN: 3060-4745

IF(Impact Factor)10.41 / 2024

Volume 2, Issue 6

429

Acumen: International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research

THE ROLE OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN ENHANCING EXPORT

POTENTIAL: STRATEGIC APPROACHES AND THE EXPERIENCE OF

UZBEKISTAN

Juraev Subkhon

Master’s Degree student at UWED

Scientific adviser:

Dalabaev Umurdin

, Professor.

A Systematic Analysis and Mathematical Modeling Department, University of World

Economy and Diplomacy (UWED).

Phone: +998 91 009 13 09

e-mail:

udalabaev@mail.ru

Introduction

Industrial policy serves as a cornerstone for economic transformation in

developing countries, offering a deliberate framework through which governments can
guide structural change, nurture competitive industries, and integrate more deeply into
global value chains. In the context of globalization—where technological innovation,
shifting consumer preferences, and complex trade relationships continually reshape
market access—relying solely on market forces often leaves rising economies
vulnerable to commodity price volatility and external shocks. For Uzbekistan, with its
rich historical legacy as a Silk Road crossroads and abundant natural endowments, an
astutely crafted industrial policy has become the vehicle for moving beyond traditional
raw material exports toward higher value manufactured goods.

Since achieving independence in 1991, Uzbekistan confronted the dual

challenge of inherited Soviet era specialization in cotton and metals and the need to
build entirely new industrial capacities. Early efforts at liberalization in the 1990s
yielded uneven results: while macroeconomic stabilization was achieved, the economy
remained heavily exposed to fluctuations in global commodity markets. Recognizing
these limitations, the Uzbek government embarked on a comprehensive reform agenda
beginning in 2017, anchored by three interlocking pillars: regulatory overhaul, targeted
investment promotion, and strategic sectoral support. The result has been a marked
shift in the country’s export composition—from more than 70% raw materials in 2011
to nearly 50% manufactured products by 2023.


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Acumen:

International Journal of

Multidisciplinary Research

ISSN: 3060-4745

IF(Impact Factor)10.41 / 2024

Volume 2, Issue 6

430

Acumen: International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research

This expanded introduction will first situate Uzbekistan’s industrial policy

within the broader theoretical debates on state led development versus laissez faire
approaches. It will then trace the evolution of policy instruments—from exchange rate
management and tax incentives to the creation of free economic zones—and explain
how these tools have been calibrated over time to respond to both domestic constraints
(such as infrastructure bottlenecks and skills gaps) and external opportunities
(including Russia’s market demand and new trade corridors with Europe and China).
Finally, the introduction will highlight three critical success factors underpinning
Uzbekistan’s journey: institutional coordination among ministries and development
agencies; the balancing act between protection and competitiveness; and the adaptive
learning process by which policies are continuously refined through feedback from the
private sector and multilateral partners. By unpacking these dynamics in greater depth,
this article lays the groundwork for understanding how targeted industrial interventions
can catalyze export diversification and long term economic resilience in emerging
markets.

Keywords:

Industrial Policy; Export Potential; Economic Diversification; Free

Economic Zones; Foreign Direct Investment; Exchange Rate Management; Tax
Incentives; Public–Private Partnerships; Uzbekistan; Strategic Sectoral Support.

Economic Context and the Role of Industrial Policy

Upon the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Uzbekistan inherited an economy heavily skewed
toward commodity exports. However, reforms initiated in 2017 to liberalize markets
and attract investment have driven an average annual GDP growth of 5.3% (World
Bank). Industrial policy has been central to stabilizing the economy, reducing
unemployment, and raising the manufacturing sector’s share of GDP. According to a
United Nations report, Uzbekistan’s success stems not only from liberalization but also
from deliberate, well targeted state support.

Strategic Approaches to Industrial Policy

Uzbekistan employs a multi pronged strategy to elevate its export performance:

1. Currency Management Maintaining a deliberately competitive exchange rate,
supported by foreign exchange reserves, has sharpened export competitiveness.
Between 2000 and 2007, real effective exchange rates fell by over 50%, catalyzing
export growth.


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Acumen:

International Journal of

Multidisciplinary Research

ISSN: 3060-4745

IF(Impact Factor)10.41 / 2024

Volume 2, Issue 6

431

Acumen: International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research

2. Tax and Financial Incentives

Exporters dispatching more than 30% of their output benefit from tax relief—including
up to a 50% reduction in corporate taxes.

3. State Procurement and Investment

Government contracts provide stable domestic demand, while public investment fuels
capacity expansion in priority industries.

4. Selective Attraction of FDI Through joint ventures with leading foreign firms,
particularly in the automotive and chemical domains, Uzbekistan secures capital,
technology transfer, and managerial expertise.

5. Protectionism Paired with Export Support Import substitution measures (such as
higher import tariffs) are balanced by streamlined customs procedures and subsidy
schemes for exporters.

6. Free Economic Zones (FEZs)

Special economic zones—with tax holidays and simplified regulations—serve as
magnets for greenfield investment and accelerate clustering effects.

Thanks to these combined instruments, total exports climbed from $15.5 billion in 2011
to a substantially higher share of manufactured goods—most notably in vehicles and
chemical products.

Case Study: Automotive Industry

Uzbekistan’s vehicle sector exemplifies the payoff of an assertive industrial policy.
Prior to 1992, there was no domestic car assembly. Through partnerships with the likes
of Daewoo (later UzDaewooAuto) and General Motors Uzbekistan, the country built
up production capacity. By 2014, annual output had reached 250,000 units, with 25%
headed to Russia and other CIS markets. Fast forward to 2023, and production soared
to 425,876 vehicles—a 25% increase over 2022 (CEIC Data).

Export Growth: Automotive exports jumped from $55.1 million in 2016
to $208.9 million in 2020, with Kazakhstan absorbing over $168.6 million of that total.

Policy Driver: President Mirziyoyev’s 2017–2021 roadmap for accelerating
automotive industry development lured new global players such as Peugeot Citroën
and BYD, tripling production capacity (Control Risks).


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Acumen:

International Journal of

Multidisciplinary Research

ISSN: 3060-4745

IF(Impact Factor)10.41 / 2024

Volume 2, Issue 6

432

Acumen: International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research

Year Production (units) Exports ($ million)

Main Export Destinations

2016 85 000

55.1 Russia, Kazakhstan

2020 220 000

208.9 Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan

2023 425 876

N/A Kazakhstan, Russia

Case Study: Chemical Industry

Similarly, chemical manufacturing has flourished under a presidential decree (PP 3236
of 23 August 2017) aimed at modernization, diversification, and export expansion. A
$12.1 billion investment program covering 31 projects through 2030—including
$1.7 billion in FDI—laid the foundation for rapid growth (Trade.gov).

Export Dynamics: Chemical exports rose from $189 million in 2020 to $482 million
in 2022, reaching over 40 foreign markets (Daryo News).

Output Gains: Production climbed from UZS 2.3 trillion ($189 million) in 2016 to
UZS 15.3 trillion ($1.2 billion) in 2022, facilitated by the launch of 30 new product
lines. Year Production ($ million) Exports ($ million)

Export

Destinations

Count

2016 189 189 N/A

2020 N/A 189 N/A

2022 1 200 482 40+

Additional Insights and Emerging Trends

Beyond the automotive and chemical sectors, Uzbekistan is now eyeing new frontiers:

Electronics and ICT Manufacturing

With the launch of dedicated FEZs for high tech assembly, the country aspires to
produce consumer electronics and semiconductors for Central Asian and Eurasian
markets.

Agro processing and Food Exports Building on its agricultural core, Uzbekistan is
investing in modern canneries and packaging plants to export processed fruits,
vegetables, and juices, thereby capturing higher value.


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Acumen:

International Journal of

Multidisciplinary Research

ISSN: 3060-4745

IF(Impact Factor)10.41 / 2024

Volume 2, Issue 6

433

Acumen: International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research

Digitalization and Industry 4.0 Incentives for robotics, AI driven quality control, and
smart logistics are being introduced to enhance productivity, reduce waste, and meet
stringent international standards.

Green and Circular Industry To align with global sustainability norms, policies now
encourage eco friendly technologies—such as energy efficient reactors in chemical
plants and electrified assembly lines in auto factories.

Human Capital Development Recognizing that technology alone doesn’t guarantee
success, Uzbekistan has launched vocational training centers and academic
partnerships with world class universities to build a skilled workforce.

These emerging areas underscore the need for flexibility: as global markets shift toward
digital and green goods, Uzbekistan’s industrial policy must adapt to sustain export
momentum.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan’s industrial policy journey demonstrates how astute government

action can reshape an economy—steering it away from commodity dependence toward
a diversified, high value export landscape. The country’s success in the automotive and
chemical sectors underscores the efficacy of an integrated policy toolkit, combining
exchange rate management, tax incentives, and free economic zones to catalyze rapid
capacity building and market access. By nurturing joint ventures with global industry
leaders, Uzbekistan has not only attracted capital and technology but also fostered local
skill development and supply chain linkages.

Looking ahead, the lessons from Uzbekistan’s experience suggest that

maintaining policy agility is paramount. As global trade dynamics shift—driven by
digitalization, sustainability imperatives, and regional trade agreements—the ability to
recalibrate incentives, streamline regulations, and invest in emerging sectors (such as
electronics, agro processing, and green technologies) will determine whether
Uzbekistan can sustain its export momentum. Additionally, deepening public–private
partnerships and strengthening institutional coordination will be critical to translating
strategic visions into on the ground impact, ensuring that infrastructure upgrades,
workforce training, and innovation ecosystems keep pace with ambitious export
targets.

Finally, the Uzbek model offers an instructive blueprint for other emerging

economies: a carefully sequenced combination of protection, promotion, and


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Acumen:

International Journal of

Multidisciplinary Research

ISSN: 3060-4745

IF(Impact Factor)10.41 / 2024

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competition can unlock latent industrial potential, drive economic resilience, and
integrate national economies more fully into global value chains. Continued
commitment to data driven policy refinement, proactive engagement with international
partners, and an unwavering focus on human capital development will enable
Uzbekistan to capitalize on new opportunities—charting a sustainable path toward long
term export growth and inclusive development.

References

Books

1. Rodrik, D. (2011). The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the
World Economy.

Publisher: W.W. Norton & Company

2. Chang, H.-J. (2002). Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical
Perspective.

Publisher: Anthem Press

3. Stiglitz, J. E., & Lin, J. Y. (Eds.). (2013). The Industrial Policy Revolution I: The
Role of Government Beyond Ideology.

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

4. Amsden, A. H. (1989). Asia’s Next Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization.

Publisher: Oxford University Press

5. Wade, R. (1990). Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of
Government in East Asian Industrialization.

Publisher: Princeton University Press

6. Lin, J. Y. (2012). New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking
Development and Policy.

Publisher: World Bank Publications

7. Oqubay, A., & Ohno, K. (Eds.). (2019). How Nations Learn: Technological
Learning, Industrial Policy, and Catch-up.

Publisher: Oxford University Press


background image

Acumen:

International Journal of

Multidisciplinary Research

ISSN: 3060-4745

IF(Impact Factor)10.41 / 2024

Volume 2, Issue 6

435

Acumen: International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research

8. Khan, M. H., & Blankenburg, S. (2009). The Political Economy of Industrial Policy
in Asia and Latin America.

Publisher: Oxford University Press

9. Page, J., & Tarp, F. (Eds.). (2017). The Practice of Industrial Policy: Government–
Business Coordination in Africa and Asia.

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Websites

1. World Bank: Uzbekistan Overview

o URL:

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/uzbekistan/overview

2. United Nations: What Can Uzbekistan Tell Us About Industrial Policy

o URL:

https://www.un.org/uk/desa/what-can-uzbekistan-tell-us-about-industrial-

policy-we-did-not-already-know

3. U.S. Department of State: 2023 Investment Climate Statements: Uzbekistan

o

URL:

https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-investment-climate-

statements/uzbekistan/

4. U.S. Department of State: 2024 Investment Climate Statements: Uzbekistan

o

URL:

https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-

statements/uzbekistan/

5. Trade.gov: Uzbekistan - Market Overview

O

URL:

https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/uzbekistan-market-

overview

6. Trade.gov: Uzbekistan – Chemicals

o URL:

https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/uzbekistan-chemicals

7. CEIC Data: Uzbekistan Motor Vehicle Production, 1997–2024

o URL:

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/uzbekistan/motor-vehicle-production


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Acumen:

International Journal of

Multidisciplinary Research

ISSN: 3060-4745

IF(Impact Factor)10.41 / 2024

Volume 2, Issue 6

436

Acumen: International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research

8. Daryo News: Uzbekistan’s Booming Chemical Industry o URL:

https://daryo.uz/en/2023/10/11/uzbekistans-booming-chemical-industry-12bn-in-
2022-and-30-new-products

9. Control Risks: Automotive Export and Diversification Drive in Uzbekistan

o URL:

https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/automotive-export-and-

diversification-drive-in-uzbekistan

10. Lex.uz: Presidential Decree PP-3236, 23 August 2017 o URL:

https://lex.uz/docs/3323989

11.

UNCTAD:

Uzbekistan

Investment

Policy

o

URL:

https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org

References

Rodrik, D. (2011). The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy.

 Publisher: W.W. Norton & Company

Chang, H.-J. (2002). Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective.

 Publisher: Anthem Press

Stiglitz, J. E., & Lin, J. Y. (Eds.). (2013). The Industrial Policy Revolution I: The Role of Government Beyond Ideology.

 Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Amsden, A. H. (1989). Asia’s Next Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization.

 Publisher: Oxford University Press

Wade, R. (1990). Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization.

 Publisher: Princeton University Press

Lin, J. Y. (2012). New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy.

 Publisher: World Bank Publications

Oqubay, A., & Ohno, K. (Eds.). (2019). How Nations Learn: Technological Learning, Industrial Policy, and Catch-up.

 Publisher: Oxford University Press

Khan, M. H., & Blankenburg, S. (2009). The Political Economy of Industrial Policy in Asia and Latin America.

 Publisher: Oxford University Press

Page, J., & Tarp, F. (Eds.). (2017). The Practice of Industrial Policy: Government–Business Coordination in Africa and Asia.

 Publisher: Oxford University Press

Websites

World Bank: Uzbekistan Overview

United Nations: What Can Uzbekistan Tell Us About Industrial Policy

U.S. Department of State: 2023 Investment Climate Statements: Uzbekistan

U.S. Department of State: 2024 Investment Climate Statements: Uzbekistan

Trade.gov: Uzbekistan - Market Overview

Trade.gov: Uzbekistan – Chemicals

CEIC Data: Uzbekistan Motor Vehicle Production, 1997–2024

Control Risks: Automotive Export and Diversification Drive in Uzbekistan

Lex.uz: Presidential Decree PP-3236, 23 August 2017 o URL: https://lex.uz/docs/3323989

UNCTAD: Uzbekistan Investment Policy o URL: https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org