Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
82
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
ABSTRACT
This article addresses the question of the Axiom of Potential danger, which provides for a quantitative assessment of
the negative impact, which is assessed by the risk of damage to the health and life of the employee.
A quantitative measure of the danger (possible danger) of an adverse event or the state of the technological process
that led to a violation of the requirements for labor protection or safety.
KEYWORDS
Danger, пpotential danger, professionalrisk, andindividual risk, collective riskк, acceptable risk,social risk.оциальный
риск.
INTRODUCTION
Research Article
THE AXIOM OF POTENTIAL DANGER. RISK AS A MEASURE OF DAMAGE
IN TRANSPORT COMPANIES
Submission Date:
February 18, 2023,
Accepted Date:
February 23, 2023,
Published Date:
February 28, 2023
Crossref doi:
https://doi.org/10.37547/ajast/Volume03Issue02-09
Sh.
Х
. Abdazimov
Ph.D., Railway Workers, Tashkent, Republic Of Uzbekistan
B. E.Medeshov
Senior Lecturer, Department Of Technosphere Safety Tashkent State Transport University, Uzbekistan
J. M. Mirhamitov
Senior Lecturer, Department Of Technosphere Safety Tashkent State Transport University, Uzbekistan
Journal
Website:
https://theusajournals.
com/index.php/ajast
Copyright:
Original
content from this work
may be used under the
terms of the creative
commons
attributes
4.0 licence.
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
83
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
Danger
–
situations, operations, actions, etc. manifest
as events that can lead to accidents and /
oroccupational diseases.
Axiom of potential danger- Potential danger lies in the
hidden, implicit nature of the manifestation of dangers.
The axiom of potential danger provides for a
quantitative assessment of the negative impact, which
is assessed by the risk of damage to the health and life
of the employee.
Occupational risk-a combination of the probability of
damage to the health and life of an employee in the
course of work and the severity of this damage.
Occupational risk assessment is a procedure that
allows you to determine the quantitative or qualitative
value of a risk indicator.
The probability of health damage resulting from the
performance of work duties is called an occupational
risk. They exist in almost any profession, and the
following occupational factors can cause damage to
health:
•
physical
—
noise, vibration, temperature
changes, exposure to ionizing and non-ionizing
radiation, etc.
•
chemical
—
interaction
with
harmful
substances.
•
biological
—
interaction with plants, animals,
and microorganisms.
•
the severity of the labor process
—
everything
related to physical exertion and the position of the
div in space during work;
•
the intensity of the labor processis a load on
the organs of perception.
The occurrence of colds can be attributed to
occupational risks. However, this is not comparable to
occupational risks leading to disability or death.
Therefore, it is logical to distinguish risk levels.
A lowlevel of risk implies the likelihood of a short-term
health disorder.
A significantlevel of risk is considered to be the level at
which moderate to light damage to health can be
caused. If the health can be caused, including serious
harm, this level of risk is calledhigh. The highest level is
lethal[2].
The complex of measures for assessing occupational
health and safety risks includes: identification of
occupational risks, assessment and reduction of their
level.
To identify and assess occupational risks, you must:
•
production control;
•
state sanitary and epidemiological supervision;
•
sanitary and epidemiological assessment of
means of production;
Each of these activities includes:
1.
Workplace inspection,which allows you to
identify harmful factors in the production environment
(existing or possible), as well as the types of work
during which employees may be exposed to these
factors.
2.
Collect datato compare it with current
regulations.
3.
Assessment of the possibility of completely
eliminating or reducing the hazardto the minimum
acceptable level.
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
84
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
Thus, to assess professional risks, it will be necessary
to attract specialists of engineering and scientific
orientation. Methodological manuals, specialized
tables, databases, and software are also needed to
determine risk levels.
It should be taken into account that in addition to
working conditions, important risk factors are the
competence of the employer and employee in matters
of industrial safety. Competence management
includes training, including targeted instruction (for
example, before mass events), moral and material
incentives, and disciplinary actions. If an employee has
been absent from the workplace for more than a year
(for example, on maternity leave), an extraordinary
check of their knowledge is required after returning to
work знаний .
Actions that reduce and manage risks:
1.
Eliminate a hazard or risk. Measures that
include modification of equipment and technological
processes. For example, the introduction of technical
devices to protect employees from electric shock.
2.
Replacing one risk with another. Measures
aimed at using materials, substances, and processes
that perform the same functions, but are less
dangerous.
3.
Technical measuresare aimed at isolating
people from danger. A classic example is protective
screens, curtains, and screens for X-ray room staff.
4.
Administrative
measures.
Continuous
administrative control, checking equipment, informing
employees about the rules and working conditions at
the workplace.
5.
Use of personal protective equipment (PPE) . It
is necessary not only to organize the issuance of
protective equipment according to standard industry
standards, but also to monitor their use and
maintenance.
6.
Behavioral security audit. Measures aimed at
consolidating the results obtained and reducing
dangerous actions that occur due to the human factor.
For example, employees may incorrectly use
protective equipment, forget to turn on additional
lighting or heaters, create drafts, or create traumatic
situations. All this can be identified and corrected as a
result of a behavioral audit.
These measures and actions are carried out in
accordance with the plan drawn up by occupational
health and safety specialists and approved by the
company's management. The plan is a list of works and
deadlines for their implementation, indicating the
responsible persons.
Risk is a combination of the probability of occurrence
of a dangerous event in the course of work and the
severity of injury or other damage to human health
caused by this event.
Such factors of industrial risks entail several groups of
adverse consequences.
•
explosions.
•
fires.
•
failure of mechanisms and equipment;
•
injuries, occupational diseases, or death of an
employee.
•
causing damage to the environment;
•
causing harm to third parties;
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
85
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
The main methods of quantitative risk assessment
includeметод анализа чувthe sensitivity analysis
method, thestatistical testingmethod (Monte Carlo
method), and the modeling method. The sensitivity
analysis method is one of the main methods of
quantitative risk analysis.
Risk assessment can be carriedout by a specialist in
labor protection or the labor protection service, but it
is more effective to create a commission of three to
seven people. The composition of the commission is
determined depending on the number of employees
and the scope of the organization's activities.
Risk management methods and tools
1.
refusal to engage in excessively risky activities
(refusal method),
2.
prevention
or
diversification
(reduction
method),
3.
outsourcing or insurance of costly risk
functions (transfer method),
4.
formation of reserves or reserves (acceptance
method).
The risk management process consists of three stages:
•
identification (identification) of hazards;
•
assessment of risk levels;
•
development of measures to reduce or control
risk levels.
The procedure for risk assessment is not spelled out in
the legislation.
To identify, identify and assess risks, you can hire a
third-party expert organization or conduct the
procedure yourself. If the organization has decided to
conduct a risk assessment on its own, then you can
develop your own algorithm for the procedure or usea
four-step algorithm.
In practice, the most commonly used methods are:
Faina-Kinneyis a risk assessment based on the product
of three components: the degree of exposure of an
employee to a workplace hazard, the possibility of a
workplace threat, and the severity of the
consequences for employees if the threat occurs.
Positive:
Easy calculations
You can get a quantitative assessment of the level of risk
Visibility
Disadvantages:
Subjectivity in the assessment process
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
86
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
Matrixapproach
–
based on calculating the probability of occurrence of dangerous situations and the level of
severity of consequences for the employee's safety and health.
Positive:
Visibility
Simplicity
You can easily rank risks
and
disadvantages:
Low objectivity
You need to set the scale criteria in the matrix
Система Elmery system
- the method is based on observations. These observations cover all the most important
components of occupational safety, such as the use of protective equipment, workplace order, safety when working
with machinery, occupational health and ergonomics.
Positive:
Ease of calculation
and flexibility in application
Suitable for small businesses
Planning of actions to eliminate the identified nonconformity
Disadvantages:
One workplace hazard may be critical, but the risk factor will be low
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
87
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
Factors affecting occupational safety are assumed to be equivalent
Checklist-
represents a list of risks that are evaluated yes/no.
Positive:
Application at any stage of work execution
Flexibility in application
It can be used by a manager of any level, not just an expert
Suitable for small businesses
Cons:
You can miss important points
Used for already known hazards
Assessment frequency
There may be a formal approach: put a check mark
Cause tree-
allows you to identify the root cause of a hazard and reduce the risk. To do this, ask at least five questions
"Why did this happen?".
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
88
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
Positive:
The primary cause is identified, not the superficial
one.
Cons:
It is necessary for the danger to arise and cause harm
Table.
Comparison of risk assessment methods
Method
Complexity
Ability to rank
risks
Visibility
Ability to
identify factors
that caused
increased risk
Need to combine
with other
methods for
ranking
Scores
Fine
–
Kinney
scores
2
2
2
2
2
10
Matrix
2
2
2
2
2
10
Система Elmery
system
2
1
1
1
1
6
Checklist
1
1
1
1
1
5
Reason tree
1
1
2
2
11
7
The more points assigned to the method, the more
accurate and complete the risk assessment can be.
Difficulty: 1-easy, 2-medium.
Ability to rank risk: 1-no, 2-yes.
Visibility: 1-no, 2-yes.
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
89
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
Ability to identify factors that have caused an increased
risk: 1
–
no, 2-no.
Need to combine with other methods for ranking: 1-
yes, 2-no.
Step 4. Adjust your risk assessment.
The final stage of risk assessment is registrationof the
hazard registerand adjustment.
Based on the results of the risk assessment, make a list
of them, depending on the level of each risk.
In order to reduce the risks, eliminate or reduce the risk
factors. To do this, take measures to reduce the risk
level:
•
exclude
dangerous
or
harmful
work,
procedure, process, raw materials, materials,
equipment, etc.
•
replacedangerous or harmfulwork, procedure,
process, raw materials, supplies, equipment, etc.
•
implement technical methods to limit the risk
of exposure to hazards for employees;
•
implement administrative methods to limit the
risk of exposure to hazards for employees.
•
providePPE workers.
Make a risk management and control plan. All assessed
risks are subject to management, regardless of their
level.
After reducing the risk levels, re-evaluate the risks
Based on the results of the repeated risk assessment,
determine the level of risks, and develop measures to
control the level so that it remains at an acceptable or
acceptable level for the employer.
Occupational risk assessment is carried out
independently of a special assessment of working
conditions. The employer has the right to use the
results of the SAIT to identify hazards in the workplace,
but this is not necessary. You can use any information
in your organization that will help you identify hazards.
A quantitative measure of the danger (possible danger) of an adverse event or the state of a technological process
that led to a violation of labor protection or safety requirements is the risk R-a combination (product) of the probability
(or frequency) of damage and the severity of this damage [3]:
R
=
∑
𝑷
𝒊
𝑼
𝒊
𝒏
𝒊=𝟏
,
where pii
–
is the probability (frequency) of the i-th adverse event for a certain period of time.
Ui
–
severity of damage caused by the i-th adverse event or condition over a certain period of time.
n is the number of adverse events over a certain period of time.
In the course of work, the employee may be affected by the following main types of hazards caused by:
-
professional activityof the employee;
-
production activities of the organization;
-
not related to the professional activity of the employee and the production activities of the organization;
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
90
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
-
the specific type of work performed.
Each of the identified hazards (a manifestation of the hazard) the damage associated with its manifestation is put in
line.
In general, when assessing risk in the workplace , an N-level scale of damage can be used, each level of which is
assigned a certain weighting coefficient by expert assessment (Table 1).
Table 1
Example of a three-level scale of damage severity
Severity of
damage
Weight ratio
Verbal description of the damage
Small
5
The injured employee does not require medical treatment; in the worst case,
3-day absence from work
Average
10
The injured employee is taken to a health organization or needs to be visited;
absence from work for up to 30 days; development of a chronic disease
Large
15
An accident causes serious (incurable) health damage; requires hospital
treatment; absence from work for more than 30 days; permanent disability or
death
When choosingthe level of severity of damage, you can
use the classes of working conditions established
based on the results of a special assessment of working
conditions.
Quantitative risk indicators allow you to assess
potential hazards and even compare hazards of
different nature. In relation to the problem of life
safety and industrial safety, such an event can be a
deterioration of health or death of a person, an
accident or catastrophe of a technical system or
device, pollution or destruction of an ecological
system, the death of a group of people or an increase
in population mortality. For the industrial sphere of
activity, the study of the ratios of risk objects and
undesirable events makes it possible to distinguish
between
professional,
individual,
collective,
environmental, social and economic risks. Each type of
risk is determined by its specific sources and factors.
Individual risk
–
a characteristic of the implementation
of the danger of a certain type of activity for a
particular employee. The indicators of occupational
injuries and morbidity used in our country, such as the
frequency of accidents and occupational diseases, are
an expression of individual occupational risk.
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
91
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
Individual risk is the probability of undesirable consequences for an individual arising from certain hazards at a
particular point in space. The risk value is determined by the probability R
,
where
n
is the number of undesirable consequences for the observation period (usually one year);
N
is the number of
maximum possible consequences;
t is
the time period of the hazard existence;
T
is the observation time.
For example, if an average of 10,000 people die from road accidents every year in a country with a total population of 10
million, then the individual risk of road accidents is equal to
.
If you have to visit this country for 1 month, then the individual risk of dying in an accident is
.
Collective risk
-a characteristic of the realization of the
danger of a certain type of activity for a group of
employees.
Occupational risk is a dimensionless value determined
for a specific period of time, most often for a year.
Occupational risk is accepted as a criterion for the
safety of production equipment and technological
processes. Due to the impossibility of achieving
absolute safety of production, there is a concept of
acceptable (acceptable) and expected(predicted) risk.
Acceptable
risk
ДОП
RR is the minimum amount of risk
that is achievable in terms of technical, technological,
and economic capabilities. It represents a compromise
between the level of security and the ability to achieve
it. The amount of acceptable risk depends on the
industry of production, the employee's profession, and
the type of negative factor that determines it.
The maximum acceptable level of total risk of human
death in many countries of the world is assumed
R
to be
RR
= 10-6
-6
per year, and the average occupational
(acceptable) risk is 2.5·10-6
-6
per year.
For comparison, the estimated value of the risk of
death of an employee in production in Russia as a
whole is 1.5·10-4
-4
, and in railway transport it is 0.9·10-4
-
4
.
The realization of a danger
in the form of an injury or
illness is possible only if three conditions are met
simultaneously: the presence of a source of danger,
the presence of a person in the "risk zone", and the
absence of protective equipment.
For risk analysis, a number of methods, techniques and
software tools are used to comprehensively study
hazards and assess the risk of an emergency situation,
the source of which is an industrial facility. Terminology
Volume 03 Issue 02-2023
92
American Journal Of Applied Science And Technology
(ISSN
–
2771-2745)
VOLUME
03
I
SSUE
02
Pages:
82-92
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
7.063
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
and methodology for analyzing the risk of violations of
labor protection requirements are given in
GOSTa R
Uz.
In addition, the concept of "risk level"
R is used
, i.e. the probability of an undesirable event occurring, taking into
account the amount of possible damage from the event. The degree of risk isthe mathematical expectation of the
amount of damage caused by an adverse event or condition:
R
(m)
=
p
i
m
i
,
where
pi
is the
probability of occurrence of an adverse event or condition related to damage.
m
i
–
random value of damage caused to the economy, health, etc.
Social risk
-reflects the dependence of the number of
people killed on the frequency of eventsthat cause the
death of these people.
REFERENCES
1.
Life safety. / Edited by O. N. Rusak.- St.
Petersburg: Leningrad Union of Specialists in
Belarusian Railways, 1992.
2.
Life safety. Training manual / Edited by рекдV.
D. Shantarinand G. V. Starikova, Tyumen:
TSOGUPubl., 1997.
3.
Beschastnov M. V. Promyshlennye vzryzy,
otsenka
i
preobrazhdenie
[Industrial
explosions,
assessment
and
warning].
Moscow: Khimiya Publ., 1991.
4.
Bobkov A. S., Blinov A. A. et al. Labor
protection and environmental safety in the
chemical industry, Moscow: Khimiya, 1997.
5.
Industrial noise abatement: Guide / Ed. by E. Y.
Yudin, Moscow: Mashinostroenie Publ., 1985.
