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A
BSTRACT
Investments are one of the important factors determining the level of economic growth. The article
analyzes the impact of centralized, decentralized investments and investments attracted on the basis of
foreign credit on ensuring economic growth in our republic, as well as their econometric modeling. The
relationship between investments and the level of economic growth was also analyzed by creating a
multifactor econometric model.
K
EYWORDS
Investment, econometric model, economic truth, investment and economic truth, centralized and
decentralized investment, investment attractiveness, investment research, investment rating, investment
methodology, investment potential, investment model.
I
NTRODUCTION
One of the main indicators of economic growth in
our republic is investment. Investments have a
multiplier effect, and investment in one sector
necessarily has a direct and indirect impact on the
production of gross domestic product in other
sectors. Therefore, one of the urgent issues in
ensuring economic growth in our republic is the
analysis of the impact of centralized,
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Copyright:
Original
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4.0 licence.
Research Article
ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF
INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN
Submission Date:
December 09,
2024,
Accepted Date:
December 14, 2024,
Published Date:
December 19, 2024
Crossref doi:
https://doi.org/10.37547/ijasr-04-12-20
Tukhliev Bozor Karimovich
Doctor of Economic Sciences (DSc), Professor, Head of the Department of "Finance and Accounting", TMC
Institute, Uzbekistan
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(ISSN
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OCLC
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decentralized investments, as well as investments
attracted on the basis of foreign loans, as well as
econometric modeling.
Literature review
The Law of the Republic of Uzbe
kistan “On
Investments a
nd Investment Activities”, adopted
on December 25, 2019, defines investments as
follows: “investments are tangible and intangible
assets and rights to them, including rights to
intellectual property objects, invested by an
investor in social, entrepreneurial, scientific and
other types of activities on a risk basis in order to
obtain profit, and may include:”
Many scientists, economists, and researchers
have conducted their scientific work on
investments, investment activities, the economic
content of investments, the investment
environment, investment attractiveness, the
economic efficiency of investments, and other
investments, both abroad and among Russian
economists, as well as in our country.
In their research on investment, Edwin J. Dolan,
Colin D. Campbell, and Rosemary J. Campbell
argue that in a modern market economy, when
the annual expenses of a household are less than
its income, the excess income of the household
from goods and services, as well as taxes and
other payments, is considered savings. Only when
these savings are directed to sectors of the
economy with the aim of generating income, is it
considered investment capital.
There are also views that firms invest in two
directions: "the first direction is the purchase or
creation of fixed capital, that is, the purchase or
creation of new production equipment, buildings,
computers, and other production tools related to
production, and the second direction is the
investment in inventories, that is, the reserves of
raw materials necessary for use in production
processes and residual finished products.".
Investment theory has gone through several
stages in its historical development. As a result of
his research on investment, V.V. Aladin concludes
that "the first signs of investment can be seen in
the scientific works of the Austrian school of
economists, including Behm-Bawer.".
According to Professor Sh.I. Mustafakulov, “A
specific methodology for assessing the
investment attractiveness of a country is not
established by any international law, therefore,
recently, various methodologies for assessing
investment attractiveness have been used.
According to some economists, investment
attractiveness is determined by the level of return
on investment. This approach covers a very
narrow scope of application, since in order to
obtain accurate and accurate results, investments
must be made with the same level of risk, which is
practically impossible.”
M
ETHODOLOGY
The methodological basis of this study is the
dialectical method of research, systematic and
process approaches. The work uses such research
methods as econometric analysis, correlation
coefficient
matrix,
scientific
abstraction,
synthesis, grouping and comparison, financial
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analysis, as well as an official information base. In
order to assess the validity and practical
significance of the above-described methods for
assessing the investment climate, scientifically
and practically based recommendations were
developed on the study of foreign experience and
the implementation of its advanced and
promising achievements.
For this purpose, multifactor econometric models
were used to study the impact of investments on
GDP growth in our republic and to build
econometric models. Before building a
multifactor econometric model, descriptive
statistics were conducted on the factors
participating in this model. The reason for this is
to determine whether the variables participating
in the multifactor econometric model are subject
to normal distribution, to determine indicators
such as arithmetic mean values, median, kurtosis,
and asymmetry.
Table 1
Dynamics of gross domestic product and investments in the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2001-2022,
billion soums *
Years
GDP,
(billion
soums),
Y
Centralized
investments, bln.
soum, X
1
Decentralized
investments,
billion soum, X
2
Investments
attracted on the
basis of foreign
credit
billion soum, X
3
200 0
3255.6
475.6
268.9
172.3
200 1
4925.3
621.2
699.7
369.6
200 2
7450.2
623.2
903.4
306.1
200 3
9844.0
720.9
1257.2
479.4
200 4
12261.0
1043.6
1585.3
659.9
2006
15923.4
978.2
2186.9
687.0
200 8
21124.9
1337.9
270 3 . 0
748.3
2009
28190.0
1610.2
4293.3
1447.7
20 10
38969.8
2231.1
7324.8
2863.9
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20 11
49375.6
3001. 3
9530.6
4058. 1
2012
74042.0
3343.2
13120.5
4340.8
2013
96949.6
4056.6
15443. 4
3853. 8
2014
120242.0
5077.6
19377.7
4653.3
2015
144548.3
5952.7
24537.3
5532.7
2016
177153.9
6730. 7
30915. 5
6980. 1
2017
210183.1
6791.8
38018. 6
8309.5
2018
242495.5
8238. 5
42993.5
10611.4
20 19
302536.8
10102. 8
62052.3
17146.5
20 20
406648.5
23127. 6
101103.7
30154.8
20 21
510117.2
42543.8
153383. 5
85437.2
202 2
580203.2
33915.6
168084.5
87143.6
*
Source: prepared by the author based on the data of the Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of
Uzbekistan.
When analyzing the impact of the relationship
between investment and economic growth based
on the data in Table 1 above, based on the Eviews
9.0 program recommended by I.M. Rozhkov, I.A.
Larionova, and N.A. Isaeva, their descriptive
statistical results represent the quantities below
(Table 2).
Descriptive statistical results
Y
X
1
X
2
X
3
Mean
145544.8
7739. 3
33323.0
13140.7
Median
74042.0
3343.2
13120.5
4058. 1
Maximum
580203.2
42543.8
168084.5
87143.6
Minimum
3255.6
475.6
268.9
172. 4
Std. Dev.
173101.9
11422.5
49168.4
25313.6
Skewness
1.3
2. 1
1. 9
2.4
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Kurtosis
3. 6
6.2
5.1
7. 4
Jarque-Bera
6. 3
24. 3
15.4
37. 3
Probability
0. 1
0.
0.0
0.0
Sum
3056440. 0
162524.5
699783.8
275956.4
Sum Sq. Dev.
5.99E+11
2.61E+09
4.84E+10
1.28E+10
Observations
21
21
21
21
* Source: Author's calculations
According to the table, it can be seen that the
average values of the influencing factors range
from 7739.2 to 145544.8. The smallest amount
corresponds to the indicator of centralized
investments. The main reason for this is that in
recent years the state has been paying attention
to centralized investors in our Republic. The
results of the analysis indicate that all factors
included in the multifactor econometric model
obey the normal distribution and their
probabilities are less than 0.5. This, in turn,
requires the inclusion of all influencing factors
(xi) in the model. Therefore, we consider the
relationships between the factors, taking into
account the normal distribution of the factors
included in the model (Figure 1).
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
0 100,000
300,000
500,000
y
x1
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
0 100,000
300,000
500,000
y
x2
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
0 100,000
300,000
500,000
y
x3
Figure 1. Relationships between the outcome factor y and the factors influencing it
From the graphs presented in Figure 1, it can be
seen that there is a close relationship between the
resulting factor y and the factors influencing it
(xi). In order to more accurately characterize
these relationships and their impact on the level
of investment and economic growth, it is
advisable to calculate the correlation coefficients
between the factors (Table 3).
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Table 3
Correlation coefficient matrix
Y
X
1
X2
X3
Y
1.000000
X
1
0.942468
1.000000
12.28887
0.0000
X
2
0.981386
0.980043
1.000000
22.27449
21.48980
0.0000
0.0000
X
3
0.906439
0.973033
0.966998
1.000000
9.355298
18.38729
16.54348
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
From the matrix of correlation coefficients
between factors, it can be seen that the specific
correlation coefficient between the resulting
factor and the influencing factors is greater than
0.9, that is, there is a close relationship between
them. These results justify the need to take into
account all the proposed factors when developing
a multifactor econometric model of the
relationship between investment and economic
growth indicators. Since the results of our
analysis show that all of these factors have a
significant impact on the change in the volume of
the republic's gross domestic product. Based on
the data in Table 1 above, we determine the form
of a multifactor econometric model (Table 4).
Table 4
Estimated parameters of a multivariate econometric model
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Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
X1
-1.3927
1.995244
-0.698027
0.4946
X2
5.8819
0.419645
14.01645
0.0000
X3
-4.2378
0.702452
-6.032922
0.0000
C
16008.23
5331.502
3.002574
0.0080
R-squared
0.9913
Mean dependent var
145544.8
Adjusted R-squared
0.9897
S.D. dependent var
173101.9
S.E. of regression
17544.31
Akaike info criterion
22.55249
Sum squared resid
5.23E+09
Schwarz criterion
22.75145
Log likelihood
-232.8011
Hannan-Quinn criter.
22.59567
F-statistic
643.3257
Durbin-Watson stat
1.799394
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
According to the data in Table 4, the multifactor
econometric model looks like this:
3
2
1
2378
.
4
8819
.
5
3927
.
1
23
.
16008
ˆ
X
X
X
Y
−
+
−
=
(1)
9913
.
0
2
=
R
,
3257
.
643
хисоб
=
F
,
799
.
1
=
DW
The parameters of the calculated (1) multifactor
econometric model show that if centralized
investments increase by 1.0 billion soums, the
gross domestic product may decrease by an
average of 1.3927 billion soums. An increase in
decentralized investments by 1.0 billion soums
will increase the gross domestic product by an
average of 5.8818 billion soums. An increase in
the part of investments attracted on the basis of
foreign loans directed only to social sectors by 1.0
billion soums can reduce the country's gross
domestic product by an average of 4.2378 billion
soums. Our analysis shows the validity of the
theoretical views recognized by foreign scientists
that the amount of centralized investments
directed to social sectors is determined based on
the level of the threshold of influence on the
change in gross domestic product. Therefore, in
our opinion, when developing programs for
financing social facilities from centralized funds,
it is recommended to determine the optimal level
of GDP and funds allocated to the social sphere
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based on econometric model analysis. Otherwise,
the effectiveness of funds directed to a positive
goal may decrease.
R
ESULTS
In order to assess the quality of the multifactor
econometric model (1) calculated above, we
determine the coefficient of determination. The
coefficient of determination expresses the degree
of dependence of the resulting factors affecting
the relationship between investments and gross
domestic product on the factors included in the
model. The coefficient of determination (R2 - R-
squared) calculated based on the data in the table
is equal to 0.9913. The results of our analysis
show that 99.13 percent of the republic's gross
domestic product (Y) (1) consists of factors
included in the recommended multifactor
econometric model, and 0.87 percent (1.0-
0.9913) of the change is due to the influence of
factors not taken into account in the model. The
fact that the standard errors of the factors (1) in
this multifactor econometric model are also small
indicates the high statistical significance of the
model. To allow for comparison of models with
different numbers of factors and to ensure that
these numbers of factors do not affect the R2
statistic, a smoothed coefficient of determination
is usually used, i.e.:
2
2
2
adj.
1
y
s
s
R
−
=
(2)
Adjusted coefficient of determination (Adjusted
R-squared) equal to 0.9897 and its proximity to R
2 means that the model can accept values around
the change in the number of influencing factors.
Fisher's F-criterion is used to check the statistical
significance of the multifactor econometric model
(1) or its adequacy (suitability) to the studied
process. Fisher's calculated F-criterion value is
compared with its value in the table. If F
calculation > F table, then the multifactor
econometric model is said to be statistically
significant and it can be used to forecast the
resulting indicator - the republic's gross domestic
product (Y) for future periods. So, we find the
table value of F-criterion to check the statistical
significance of the model. For this, we calculate
the values of the degrees of freedom and the level
of significance. Based on the level of significance
and the degrees of freedom and, the table value of
the F-criterion is equal to. The calculated value of
the F-criterion F calculation = 643.3257 and the
table value F table = 3.20 and the condition of F
calculation > F table is fulfilled, so it can be said
that the multifactor econometric model is
statistically significant and it can be used to
forecast the size of the gross domestic product of
the republic (Y) for future periods. comes and
goes. Student's t-test is used to check the
reliability of the calculated parameters
(regression
coefficients)
of
multifactor
econometric modeling. By comparing the
calculated (t calculation) and table (t table) values
of Student's t-meson, we accept or reject the N 0
hypothesis. For this, the probability of reliability
and the degree of freedom j are selected for the
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table of the t-criterion. we find based on the
conditions. Here- the number of observations, -
the number of factors. Reliability probability and
degree of freedom then the tabular value of the t-
criterion is equal to.
It can be seen from the regression calculations
that the calculated values of the t-meson
according to the factors X 2 and X 3 are greater
than the table value in accuracy (Table 4). And
these factors are in the multifactor e conometric
model q allows them to have sex. We use the
Durbin-Watson (DW) test to check for
autocorrelation in the residuals of the resulting
factor according to the multifactor econometric
model. Using Fumio Hayashi 's Econometrica
tutorial calculated DW value j adval DW L v a DW
is compared with U. If DW is less than <DW L, then
autocorrelation is called autocorrelation . If
DWcount>greater than DWU, there is no manual
autocorrelation. The lower limit value of the
Durbin-Watson criterion is DW L =1.03 and the
upper limit value is DW U =1.67. DW count = 1.79.
Therefore, since DW calculation > DW U, there is
no autocorrelation in the residuals of the
resulting factor (the volume of the republic's
gross domestic product (Y)). The absence of
autocorrelation in the residuals of the resulting
factor and the actual (Actual), calculated (Fitted)
values of the multifactor econometric model
presented above (1) and the differences between
them (Residual) are presented in Figure 2 below.
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
Residual
Actual
Fitted
Figure 2. Multifactor econometric model
The graph of the estimated values of the republic's gross domestic product according to the multifactor
econometric model is very close to the graph of its actual values, and the differences between them are not
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very large. This is another proof that (1) the
multifactor econometric model can be used to
forecast the republic's gross domestic product for
future periods.
Now we will build multifactor econometric
models of centralized, decentralized and foreign
investments in the gross domestic product of the
leading industries of our republic.
1.
The multifactor econometric model of investments in the industrial sector has the following form:
2.
3
2
1
0111
.
0
2465
.
2
9778
.
3
965
.
3828
ˆ
X
X
X
Y
+
+
−
=
(3)
9954
.
0
2
=
R
,
42
.
1229
хисоб
=
F
,
3288
.
1
=
DW
2. The multifactor econometric model for investment in the agricultural sector looks like this::
3
2
1
7540
.
12
9024
.
16
8300
.
2
264
.
3826
ˆ
X
X
X
Y
−
+
+
=
(4)
9735
.
0
2
=
R
,
599
.
208
хисоб
=
F
,
1862
.
2
=
DW
3. The multifactor econometric model for investments in the construction sector looks like this:
3
2
1
2367
.
12
6988
.
10
6557
.
1
195
.
1253
ˆ
X
X
X
Y
−
+
−
=
(5)
9828
.
0
2
=
R
,
2296
.
324
хисоб
=
F
,
8416
.
0
=
DW
4. The multivariate econometric model for investment in the service sector looks like this:
3
2
1
2505
.
1
3127
.
4
6892
.
1
561
.
5080
ˆ
X
X
X
Y
−
+
−
=
(6)
9916
.
0
2
=
R
,
3632
.
669
хисоб
=
F
,
5938
.
0
=
DW
If we evaluate the estimated parameters (3) - (6)
of the multifactor econometric models
established for the leading sectors of the
economy, they all meet the conditions of the
Fisher and Student criteria. Using this situation,
we forecast the gross product of these sectors for
the next five years. Table 5 below shows the
dynamics of investments in 2001-2021 and the
forecast values for 2021-2025.
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Table 5
Dynamics of investments in Uzbekistan in 2001-2022 and quantitative forecast for 2025
year
Gross domestic
product (billion
soums )
M centered
investments,
billion soums
Decentralized
investments are six
billion soums
X is original credit
based on attracted
investments billion
soums
2000
3,255.6
475.6
268.9
172.4
2001
4,925.3
621.2
699.7
369.6
2002
7,450.2
623.2
903.4
306.2
2003
9,844.0
720.9
1,257.2
479.5
2004
12,261.0
1,043.7
1,585.3
659.9
2005
15,923.4
978.3
2,187.0
687.0
2006
21,124.9
1,338.0
2,703.0
748.3
2007
28,190.0
1,610.2
4,293.3
1,447.8
2008
38,969.8
2,231.1
7,324.8
2,863.9
2009
49,375.6
3,001.3
9,530.6
4,058.1
2010
74,042.0
3,343.2
13,120.5
4,340.8
2011
96,949.6
4,056.6
15,443.4
3,853.8
2012
120,242.0
5,077.6
19,377.7
4,653.3
2013
144,548.3
5,952.8
24,537.3
5,532.7
2014
177,153.9
6,730.7
30,915.5
6,980.1
2015
210,183.1
6,791.8
38,018.6
8,309.5
2016
242,495.5
8,238.5
42,993.5
10,611.4
2017
302,536.8
10,102.8
62,052.4
17,146.5
2018
406,648.5
23,127.6
101,103.7
30,154.8
2019
510,117.2
42,543.9
153,383.5
85,437.2
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2020
580,203.2
33,915.6
168,084.5
87,143.6
2021
664,237.0
34,039.2
189,275.7
98,557.3
2022
699,742.3
35,930.1
199,553.2
103,822.5
2023
735,247.6
37,821.0
209,830.8
109,087.6
2024
770,752.9
39,711.9
220,108.3
114,352.8
2025
806,258.1
41,602.8
230,385.8
119,617.9
Based on the econometric model recommended
above, the change of macroeconomic indicators of
our country in 2001-2022 was determined. In
2001, the level of investments from all sources
was 89 percent compared to 2000, the gross
domestic product was 1669.7 billion. increased to
sum. In 2019, the volume of investments
compared to 2010 is 80 billion. increased by more
than sum, the amount of gross domestic products
increased by 5 percent, respectively. The results
of our calculations based on the recommended
econometric model show that if the growth trend
of 2001-2022 is maintained and the rate of
investments directed to the economy is
maintained, the forecast of the country's gross
domestic product for 2025 will be 806,258 1
billion is soum. Our findings show that as a result
of these correlations, there is a positive change in
GDP growth. However, as noted above, it would
be appropriate to include the volume of
investments directed to the social sector into
state programs based on the econometric model.
Based on the above studies (Table 5), the results
of calculating the results of investment sources
are expressed in the following quantities (Figures
4-7).
Volume 04 Issue 12-2024
131
International Journal of Advance Scientific Research
(ISSN
–
2750-1396)
VOLUME
04
ISSUE
12
Pages:
119-134
OCLC
–
1368736135
).
Figure 4. Dynamics of 2001-2022 and forecast values for 2025
Figure 5. Dynamics of centralized investments in Uzbekistan in 2001-2022 and forecast
values for 2025
3
,2
5
5
.6
4
,9
2
5
.3
7
,4
5
0
.2
9
,8
4
4
.0
1
2
,2
6
1
.0
1
5
,9
2
3
.4
2
1
,1
2
4
.9
2
8
,1
9
0
.0
3
8
,9
6
9
.8
4
9
,3
7
5
.6
7
4
,0
4
2
.0
9
6
,9
4
9
.6
1
2
0
,2
4
2
.0
1
4
4
,5
4
8
.3
1
7
7
,1
5
3
.9
2
1
0
,1
8
3
.1
2
4
2
,4
9
5
.5
3
0
2
,5
3
6
.8
4
0
6
,6
4
8
.5
5
1
0
,1
1
7
.2
5
8
0
,2
0
3
.2
6
6
4
,2
3
7
.0
6
9
9
,7
4
2
.3
7
3
5
,2
4
7
.6
7
7
0
,7
5
2
.9
8
0
6
,2
5
8
.1
0.0
100,000.0
200,000.0
300,000.0
400,000.0
500,000.0
600,000.0
700,000.0
800,000.0
900,000.0
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
ЯИМ, (млрд сўм)
4
7
5
.6
6
2
1
.2
6
2
3
.2
7
2
0
.9
1
,0
4
3
.7
9
7
8
.3
1
,3
3
8
.0
1
,6
1
0
.2
2
,2
3
1
.1
3
,0
0
1
.3
3
,3
4
3
.2
4
,0
5
6
.6
5
,0
7
7
.6
5
,9
5
2
.8
6
,7
3
0
.7
6
,7
9
1
.8
8
,2
3
8
.5
1
0
,1
0
2
.8
2
3
,1
2
7
.6
4
2
,5
4
3
.9
3
3
,9
1
5
.6
3
4
,0
3
9
.2
3
5
,9
3
0
.1
3
7
,8
2
1
.0
3
9
,7
1
1
.9
4
1
,6
0
2
.8
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
35,000.0
40,000.0
45,000.0
50,000.0
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
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2
0
0
5
2
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0
6
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0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
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9
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0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
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1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
Марказлашган инвестициялар, млрд.сўм
Volume 04 Issue 12-2024
132
International Journal of Advance Scientific Research
(ISSN
–
2750-1396)
VOLUME
04
ISSUE
12
Pages:
119-134
OCLC
–
1368736135
Figure 6. Dynamics of centralized investments in Uzbekistan in 2001-2021 and forecast
indicators for 2025.
As noted in our research, the most effective part
of investments in the economy are investments
made from decentralized resources. Because
these investors directed their funds to the most
profitable sectors of the economy based on the
principle of "measure seven and cut one". In the
conditions of centralized investments, the
effectiveness of investments is evaluated not by
their profitability, but by the implementation of
the strategic tasks of the state. Therefore, the
recommended econometric model is 2001-2022
(Figure 6). The results of our research predict that
the volume of investments in decentralized
(portfolio and real sector-oriented) investment
sources will increase in accordance with the
development trend in the coming years. Based on
the results of our studies, we think that this
growth trend, in turn, will serve to ensure
employment of the population along with the
growth of the gross domestic product, increase
the income of the population and the export
potential of the country, and a positive change in
the currency balance.
2
6
8
.9
6
9
9
.7
9
0
3
.4
1
,2
5
7
.2
1
,5
8
5
.3
2
,1
8
7
.0
2
,7
0
3
.0
4
,2
9
3
.3
7
,3
2
4
.8
9
,5
3
0
.6
1
3
,1
2
0
.5
1
5
,4
4
3
.4
1
9
,3
7
7
.7
2
4
,5
3
7
.3
3
0
,9
1
5
.5
3
8
,0
1
8
.6
4
2
,9
9
3
.5
6
2
,0
5
2
.4
1
0
1
,1
0
3
.7
1
5
3
,3
8
3
.5
1
6
8
,0
8
4
.5
1
8
9
,2
7
5
.7
1
9
9
,5
5
3
.2
2
0
9
,8
3
0
.8
2
2
0
,1
0
8
.3
2
3
0
,3
8
5
.8
0.0
50,000.0
100,000.0
150,000.0
200,000.0
250,000.0
300,000.0
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
Марказлашмаган инвестициялар, млрд.сўм
Volume 04 Issue 12-2024
133
International Journal of Advance Scientific Research
(ISSN
–
2750-1396)
VOLUME
04
ISSUE
12
Pages:
119-134
OCLC
–
1368736135
Figure 7. Dynamics of investments attracted to Uzbekistan on the basis of foreign loans in
2001-2022 and forecast indicators for 2025
C
ONCLUSIONS
The results of our analysis, conducted on the basis
of the proposed econometric model of the sources
of investment financing and the forecast of
indicators for 2025, show that the investment
efficiency of centralized funds has a decreasing
trend since 2019 (table. 5). This situation can be
explained by the increase in the volume of
investments in the social sphere in our country
since 2019, aimed at supporting the low-income
segment of the population.
As a result of the positive reforms implemented
by the government in terms of investment
support in our country, an increase in the volume
of foreign investments has been observed since
2018 (Figure 7). It is known that a part of foreign
investments is made up of foreign loans. The
observation of sharp growth trends in this
direction also had an impact on the changes in the
volume of the gross domestic product. But as we
mentioned above, the allocation of our funds to
socio-economic areas has its positive result. is
giving
R
EFERENCES
1.
http://www.lex.uz (system of regulatory and
legal documents). Law of the Republic of
Uzbekistan on "Investments and investment
activities". December 25, 2019.
2.
Dolan E.Dj. i dr. Dengi, banking business and
monetary and credit policy. /Per. English
V.Lukashevicha and dr. ; Pod obshch. Ed. V
Lukashevich. -L., 1991. P.15-16.
1
7
2
.4
3
6
9
.6
3
0
6
.2
4
7
9
.5
6
5
9
.9
6
8
7
.0
7
4
8
.3
1
,4
4
7
.8
2
,8
6
3
.9
4
,0
5
8
.1
4
,3
4
0
.8
3
,8
5
3
.8
4
,6
5
3
.3
5
,5
3
2
.7
6
,9
8
0
.1
8
,3
0
9
.5
1
0
,6
1
1
.4
1
7
,1
4
6
.5
3
0
,1
5
4
.8
8
5
,4
3
7
.2
8
7
,1
4
3
.6
9
8
,5
5
7
.3
1
0
3
,8
2
2
.5
1
0
9
,0
8
7
.6
1
1
4
,3
5
2
.8
1
1
9
,6
1
7
.9
0.0
20,000.0
40,000.0
60,000.0
80,000.0
100,000.0
120,000.0
140,000.0
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
Хорижий кредит асосида жалб этилган инвестициялар млрд.сўм
Volume 04 Issue 12-2024
134
International Journal of Advance Scientific Research
(ISSN
–
2750-1396)
VOLUME
04
ISSUE
12
Pages:
119-134
OCLC
–
1368736135
3.
Aladdin V.V. Investitsionnaya deyatelnost
sub'ektov Rossiyskoy federatsii. /V.V. Aladdin.
-M: Sotsium, 2002. P.17.
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Mustafakulov Sh.I. Attractiveness of the
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B. K. Tukhliyev , Investments of financing
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It was prepared by the author based on the
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President of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
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I.M. Rozhkov, I.A. Larionova and N.A. Isaeva.
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