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ABSTRACT
The article analyzes the geopolitical direction of China's development in the context of the emergence of a “new
world order” and the risks for the
country. The foreign policy of China, the policy of resource security of China
associated with changes in the geopolitical map are analyzed. The study concluded that in the long term, a new bipolar
balance will be established with centers of power in the US and China.
KEYWORDS
Geopolitics, geoeconomics, country risk, China, strategy, economic policy.
INTRODUCTION
Geopolitics is a science that studies geographical,
historical, political and other interacting factors that
affect the strategic potential of the state.
The main trends of the global political process:
•
strengthening the control of the international
political center;
•
growing ambitions of the main power centers in
world politics;
•
increasing influence of regional processes on the
development of the world political situation;
•
integration of political life, involvement of new
countries in the orbit of world politics;
•
People's desire to maintain and strengthen
national-state sovereignty in the growing
conditions
•
integration of the world community;
•
the participation of the main power centers in
world politics in regional political conflicts;
•
increasing the use of armed violence to solve
political problems.
The end of the second decade of the new century was
marked by the revival of classical geopolitical
approaches in world politics. American, British, and
German schools of thought were in demand again as a
way to measure the power of states, territorial
occupation as a way to ensure dominance.
Research Article
THE CHINESE FACTOR IN MODERN GEOPOLITICS
Submission Date:
January 01, 2024,
Accepted Date:
January 03, 2024,
Published Date:
January 06, 2024
Crossref doi:
https://doi.org/10.37547/ijhps/Volume04Issue01-04
Khikmatov Fatkhulla Khabibullaevich
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Political Science, Journalism and Mass Communications University of Uzbekistan
Journal
Website:
https://theusajournals.
com/index.php/ijhps
Copyright:
Original
content from this work
may be used under the
terms of the creative
commons
attributes
4.0 licence.
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The collective West, led by the United States, has lost
confidence in its global leadership for a number of
reasons and has become a user of this content.
In recent years, the well-established foundations of
China's entry into the geopolitical arena, Russia's
foreign policy and foreign economic renaissance have
shaken the world order for decades.
The international subjectivity of a number of regional
powers not controlled by the West.
Due to the internal political crisis in the United States,
a certain disorganization of the leadership core was
caused.
These factors directly contributed to the transition of
the collective West, and primarily the USA, to a new
wave of expansionism and the expansion of the
spheres of influence.
The objects of the claims were Russia and the post-
Soviet states abroad, the Middle East and the Balkans.
At the same time, open and covert aggression in the
form of war is being carried out in the first two
macroregions.
Following the world leader, some influential regional
players, such as Turkey, are turning to geopolitical
tools to pursue and protect their foreign policy
interests.
Turkey, which shares the same territories as the West,
is building up its presence there, including militarily.
Russia, which has always considered the space along
the perimeter of its borders to be a national security
zone, is forced to respond to the attempts of other
interested parties to push it out of there, and on the
other hand, it is trying to resist it.
Various types of penetration into this zone, global
threats, primarily international terrorism.
According to A. Dugin, since the middle of the 19th
century, China came under the influence of powerful
Western countries, and until October 1949, Chinese
geopolitics was subject to Atlanticism, that is, to the
West. In 1949, the People's Republic of China was
founded, and the country began to pursue an
independent policy on the international stage.
From 1949 to 1959, the direction of Chinese geopolitics
changed and began to lean toward the former Soviet
government. However, due to political disagreements
with the former Soviet state, China's foreign policy
from 1960 to 1979 was directed against the Soviet
government.
The dispute over Damansky Island at the end of the
winter season of 1969 is recognized as the peak of the
conflict between the two countries.
In the mid-70s of the 20th century, China actively
negotiated with representatives of the globalist
"Tripartite Commission", that is, Beijing appeared as a
supporter of Atlantic geopolitics.
In the middle of the 20th century, China's relations with
the West were greatly strengthened and expanded.
Factors such as racial and cultural commonality, views
sharply different from Eurasian peoples and
philosophies accumulated over thousands of years, as
well as dynamic progress since 1979 have combined to
make China a significant player in the geopolitical
arena.
Thus, on the one hand, economic development has
brought China closer to the level of major countries in
the world today, moreover, the fact that China's
population is the largest in the world (more than 1.5
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billion) is one of the unique features of Chinese
geopolitics .
In China's foreign policy, a well-thought-out strategy
and comprehensively developed plan are of great
importance.
The positive changes that have been taking place in
China lately give the impression that the Chinese have
thought out their development plan very carefully.
After all, 25 years ago, China was going through a huge
crisis, poverty, hunger and destruction reigned in the
country.
It is related to the specific conditions of China's
development. These specific conditions are:
limited natural resources;
large human potential and labor market with low labor
costs;
systematic state regulation of investments and the
development of the economic life of society;
dynamic development of high technologies with
stability
growing economic potential of the country;
The largest consumer market in Eurasia;
rapid growth of military power.
China
is
the
world's
youngest
geopolitical
powerhouse.
sustainable economic growth, turning the country into
a world factory
China ranks second in the world in terms of foreign
investment
sufficiently effective public administration system
The population for 2020 is 1,400,970,200 people
is ahead of Great Britain in the production of weapons
of mass destruction, and by 2025 will be the leader in
the submarine fleet in the Pacific .
Thus, the first five-year plan was aimed at the
development of agriculture, modernization of the food
industry, and the production of consumer goods.
The successful implementation of this plan allowed
China to fill not only its domestic market with a billion
people, but also the world market with food products
in a short period of time. These issues have been
resolved in various ways.
For example, by establishing large industrial groups,
China has been able to strengthen the national
economy and counterbalance foreign companies,
generating profits and earning additional foreign
exchange.
There are hundreds of such large state-owned
enterprises and corporations in China today.
These national corporations not only control important
sectors of the country's economy, but based on their
financial situation, they are conquering the markets of
Europe, America and Japan.
In particular, "China International Trust and
Investment Corporation" (China International Trust
and Investment Corporation) has taken leading
positions in China's chemical, metallurgical, mechanical
engineering
industries,
transport
service
and
electronics industries and has opened its branches in
many continents .
Another peculiarity of China's policy is that China has
wisely used the policy of "open doors" and
encouraging foreign investors. Banking, pricing and
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tax systems have been reformed in China to support
the inflow of foreign direct investment .
As a result, multinational corporations began to pour
into China from abroad. Although the 55 million
overseas Chinese diaspora in the early years of the
reforms spurred direct investment, there are now
dozens of foreign industrial giants operating in China.
Many foreign corporations have opened joint ventures
with local large enterprises, as a result of which
modern technologies have entered the country, the
population has been provided with jobs, and most
importantly, an average of 50 billion US dollars of
investment has entered China annually.
China not only encourages the inflow of investments,
but also actively participates in making investments in
the economy of other countries. By the mid-1990s,
more than 900 Chinese corporations had established
more than 4,600 branches in 130 countries.
Of course, these positive results in the economy should
not lead to the conclusion that all changes in China are
continuing in a positive way. The number and scale of
the problems in China are sufficient, and on the
contrary, they are getting worse year by year. For
example, the existence of some bankrupt state-owned
enterprises is a big obstacle for the further
development of the country's economy. The state
allocates a large amount of financial assistance to
support the activities of these enterprises, because
these enterprises have 100 mln. more than 100,000
people are engaged in work, if these state
organizations are closed, there is a possibility of
serious unemployment. If China maintains current
growth rates, it could become the world's second-
largest trading nation after the United States by 2050,
according to some forecasters .
China not only encourages the inflow of investments,
but also actively participates in making investments in
the economy of other countries. By the mid-1990s,
more than 900 Chinese corporations had established
more than 4,600 branches in 130 countries .
Of course, these positive results in the economy should
not lead to the conclusion that all changes in China are
continuing in a positive way.
The number and scale of the problems in China are
sufficient, and on the contrary, they are getting worse
year by year.
For example, the existence of some bankrupt state-
owned enterprises is a big obstacle for the further
development of the country's economy. The state
allocates a large amount of financial assistance to
support the activities of these enterprises, because
these enterprises have 100 mln. more than 100,000
people are engaged in work, if these state
organizations are closed, there is a possibility of
serious unemployment. If China maintains current
growth rates, it could become the world's second-
largest trading nation after the United States by 2050,
according to some forecasters.
In order to professionalize the army, the conscription
period was reduced to two years, while the
reorganization of the armed forces was carried out.
As a result, many army groups were reduced from a
divisional form to a rapid brigade form, and the army's
focus was more on dealing with local armed conflicts.
Regarding nuclear weapons, experts estimate that
China has about 150 tactical missiles and about 300
strategic ones. Representatives of the US government
fear that China wants to multiply its nuclear potential.
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However, the official Beijing makes a statement that "a
small number of nuclear arsenals are aimed only at
defensive purposes."
As a regional power, China is also very active in regional
affairs.
At first, many countries almost refused to take China's
position into account, but the growing influence of
China in Asia, and primarily in East Asia, has led to
increased attention to China.
Therefore,
China's
geopolitical
position
will
undoubtedly be determined by its bold actions in the
fields of economy and national defense. In this regard,
all experts have the same conclusion, which is that
China is asserting itself more boldly on the
international stage.
In conclusion, it should be noted that China's
geopolitical location is a combination of sea and land
factors.
According to many geopoliticians, China is embodied in
the form of a huge island. In the south and east, the
Chinese seas wash the shores of the country. It is
bordered by the vast Siberian region from the
northeast, and the population in these lands is much
smaller than in other regions.
Mongolia is located in the north, the Himalayas in the
southwest, and Indochina in the southeast.
From eastern India to southern China, jungles and
mountains form the territory, and these areas are
considered almost impenetrable and hardly need to be
defended.
And finally, the western poles of China are connected
to Central Asia through Kazakhstan.
China (SUAR, Mongolia, Tibet, Taiwan), Russia, USA
Those coming from the sea, that is, from outside, look
at the coastal areas of the mainland (Rimland) as a
potential colony, and it is envisaged to separate these
lands from the rest of the continent and make them a
strategic location by building a base there.
It is important to note that the "sea power"
(thalassocracy) never seeks to completely "own"
Rimland, when the time comes, they can easily get on
their ships, leave Rimland and leave for their
homeland, that is, the "island". The importance of
Rimland for those coming from the sea is that this line
is a safe space at a certain distance before entering the
interior of the continent.
Based on this point of view, it should be noted that the
representatives of the thalassocracy, England and the
USA (a naval power), strive to extend the line denoting
the boundaries of their islands and to expand the
Eurasian coastal zones as much as possible.
Continental geopoliticians (land power) try to do the
same thing, but in the opposite direction, that is, to use
the Eurasian border as an exit line, and the American
borders as an entry belt.
Here the importance of Rimland is shown. Another
important point to be made is that it is the "naval
forces" that are always good at taking maximum and
quick profits from the colonies they have conquered
and taking them back to their own country.
On the other hand, the land forces, in most cases,
considered the territories they conquered to be
completely their own, and could not take away much
wealth from there.
It is known from history that since the period of the
colonization of the East by the West, the last Qing
dynasty in China gradually became a semi-colonial state
that sided with the British.
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From the beginning of the 19th century until 1949 (the
victory of the Chinese Communist Party), Chinese
geopolitics was in favor of the Atlantic trend, that is,
thalassocracy.
Although China did not appear as an independent
thalassocracy, it had already become a coastal base
(Rimland) of the West.
From the point of view of pragmatism, it is more
beneficial for China to strengthen ties with the
developed West than to cooperate with Russia.
The reason is that Russia cannot offer the same
technological advancements as Western countries,
and if China "befriends" Russia, it will undermine
Beijing's geopolitical advances in the Far East,
Mongolia, and Southern Siberia.
In addition, China's demographic growth raises the
question of opening up "free zones" for the
government, in the sense that the almost uninhabited
areas of Kazakhstan and Siberia are of great interest to
China and suit its future expansion aspirations.
China poses a threat to Russia in two respects.
First, China is considered the geopolitical base of
Atlanticism, and secondly, the demographic density
requires
the
development
of "undiscovered"
territories in neighboring countries, especially in
Kazakhstan and Siberia. In any case, the Heartland
(Russia) will be under a positional threat, and the
threat will come from China.
In addition, Taiwanese political scientist Jen Kun said
that China's racial and cultural character is quite closed,
that is, in historical times, China has never actively
participated in Eurasian continental structures and
integration processes.
These considerations bring China to the level of a
potential geopolitical opponent in the south and east
of Russia.
From this point of view, in the future, Russia will try to
expand the "southern inner belt" in its eastern sector
as far as possible to the south.
According to Russian geopoliticians, in the future,
Eurasia should expand its influence towards China, but
this issue cannot be resolved without China's consent.
Development of China's hinterland
China's other less developed provinces are mainly
located in the west of the country, including Shaanxi,
Gansu, Qinghai, Guizhou, Sichuan, Yunnan provinces,
as well as Ningxia-Hueis, Tibet, Guangxi-Zhuang, Inner
Mongolia, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and
the centrally controlled The city of Chongqing is
included. These regions are economically important for
China. After all, the transport corridors and gas
pipelines connecting China with Central Asia are
intended to pass through these territories.
Also, huge water reserves from the Ili and Kara Irtish
rivers have accumulated in these areas.
Considering that China's central provinces are
suffering from water scarcity, the geopolitical
importance of the western provinces is incomparable.
120 of the 140 types of minerals found in China have
been found in the western provinces. Rich reserves of
oil and gas have also been found in the western
regions, there is information that oil reserves in the
SUAR alone make up 30% of all Chinese oil. Taking into
account that China's oil imports from foreign countries
are increasing year by year, there is no doubt that
SUAR is a very important raw material base for China.
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Chen Yuan, president of the China State Development
Bank, said that a state-funded program should be
developed for the development of China's western
regions, and this program should consist of the
following steps:
1. railways and highways, civil aviation, transport
infrastructure, large hydro and hydroelectric projects,
as well as partial environmental improvement should
be mainly financed by central financing;
2. the infrastructure of cities in the western regions
should be developed at the expense of local state
financing;
3. Local industrial and agricultural projects should be
implemented at the expense of loans from the State
Development Bank and local banks;
4. Loans of the State Development Bank are allocated
for projects in the oil and gas sector. According to Chen
Yuan, the principle of "build first, then repay the debt"
is applied at all stages.
As we mentioned above, when looking at the scale of
the Asian continent, the trend of economic
development has developed from the eastern pole to
the western pole. Comparatively, in Europe, this
process took the opposite direction, i.e. Western
European countries developed first, and then Eastern
Europe began to develop.
It is important to note that the trend of development
typical of Asia is observed in China's internal economic
development, that is, in the development from east to
west.
This is a peculiar aspect of China's geopolitics, which
means that the main developed areas are located in the
east of the country, while the west of China needs
more development.
However, the country's main natural reserves,
minerals, forest and hydropower reserves are all
concentrated in the west. For example, in the former
Soviet era, a small number of nationalities and ethnic
groups were located mainly in the east and south of
the country, while in China we can witness the
opposite.
A small number of nationalities and peoples live in the
West of China. Examples of these are Xinjiang and Tibet
Autonomous Republics.
Chen Shupen, an academician of the Chinese Academy
of Sciences, says in his pamphlet "Socio-Economic
Atlas of Western China":
"Development of Western China is a strategic program
for the new century developed by the Central
Committee of the Communist Party of China and the
State Council." This strategy is now widely
implemented. This movement has already approached
the eastern borders of Central Asia, and there is an
opportunity for the countries of our region to further
develop this relay.
Under the slogan of developing its western regions,
China is increasing its expansion to the west, that is, to
Central Asia. The main goal of the Chinese statesmen is
to make China the center of geopolitical power and
expand towards the four poles.
This is a very extensive process. For example, the
development of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region
will have an impact on eastern Kazakhstan and
Kyrgyzstan. This side of the issue is also of great
interest in official Beijing. China is proposing to revive
the Great Silk Road program in order to increase the
attractiveness of its western expansion. If these
projects are implemented, then the launch of the
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"Great Silk Road" program is fully in line with China's
geopolitical interests.
Countries bordering China
The collapse of the former Soviet state was a beneficial
outcome for China in terms of border security, as
official Beijing grew increasingly uneasy with
Moscow's arrogance and expansionist ambitions. The
fall of the Red Empire somewhat reduced China's
ambitions, as its direct borders with Russia were
greatly reduced, which in turn reduced the cost of
border security.
As a result, new, smaller and, most importantly,
independent neighboring countries - Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - that do not pose a direct
threat to China, have formed safe zones on China's
border.
The independence of the Central Asian republics made
it possible for China to establish transport corridors
from the territory of Central Asia to Europe. At the
same time, there was a need for China to restore the
Great Silk Road, which increased its interest in Central
Asia.
In turn, the entry of Chinese products into the world
market is being implemented rapidly.
To this end, China insists on maintaining friendly
relations with neighboring and transit countries on
matters such as reducing the cost of transporting
goods and equipment, as well as finished goods.
According to Chinese geopoliticians, the Central Asian
region is of great importance for China, and even
"China cannot exist without Central Asia, and the
region cannot exist without China."
Central Asian countries need China's help in ensuring
their security.
The essence of China's interest in our region lies in the
fact that, in the eyes of official Beijing, Central Asia can
become a place of conflict of all kinds of ideas, political
differences, religious currents, cultural conflicts, and
this situation can cause instability in the western
regions of China, as well as the nuclear potential of the
region is a great danger for China. the strengthening of
the US position in Central Asia may cause complex
political problems for China.
China attaches great importance to the development
of economic relations with the Central Asian republics.
According to China's "New Energy Resource" strategy,
Central Asia has become China's main target for oil and
gas production.
Therefore, this sector of the economy can be a place
for China to place large investments in the future.
Thus, China's relations with Central Asia become long-
term and stable. From a geopolitical point of view,
China seeks to implement the following tasks in
relations with Central Asia:
-reducing the level of Russian influence in the region
and the political risk of Central Asia vis-à-vis China,
establishing cooperative relations with Russia in the
direction of Central Asia, turning the region into a
factor that positively affects China's security and
stability;
Using Central Asia to raise China's social, political,
economic, military and cultural position in the world
and to solve other strategic internal and external
political issues.
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So, after the end of the bipolar system of international
relations, one of the important events that led to huge
changes on the world map is the dissolution of the
USSR and the rapid development of the People's
Republic of China. At the end of the 20th century and
the beginning of the 21st century, China undoubtedly
became one of the important and self-confident
subjects of international relations, and its geopolitical
position was strengthened. In a short period of time,
China has become one of the central points of world
geopolitics.
"Pain points" of the country's geopolitical situation
Given the scale and number of issues, we thought it
appropriate to elaborate on the following key "pain
points" that could have a serious impact on China's
geopolitics.
A) Demographic and economic problems China has
made great progress in its development, but the fact
that it is under the pressure of the demographic factor
has also created additional problems.
For example, among the existing problems, it is
possible to include a very high number of the
population, the issue of providing employment to the
population, filling the domestic market with consumer
goods and modernizing the country's agriculture and
industry, reforming state enterprises, the lack of some
natural resources, and many other problems.
Disputed neighboring countries: India, Russia
China has been aiming for more and more active
economic cooperation with India every year. In
addition, the Indian government has been studying
China's "development model" and drawing its own
conclusions.
However, China's relations with India cannot be
described as friendly. This is primarily due to the
unresolved territorial disputes between the two
countries, as well as the hiding of leaders of Tibetan
separatism in India.
Also, these two countries are currently competing with
each other in terms of economic development,
especially in the field of world energy reserves.
According to official Beijing, India wants to push China
out of Southeast Asia. In addition, the Chinese
government suspects India as a "servant" of Western
countries and a country that will cause the formation
of an anti-Chinese organization along with Japan,
Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, and the Philippines in
the future.
Japan is the only country in Asia whose relations with
China are getting worse every year.
At the same time, China is severely constrained by
internal problems.
China has the second poorest population in the world,
with 500 million people living below the poverty line,
as many as illiterate;
the situation of farmers remains depressed: the rural
area, where the absolute majority of the population of
the PRC lives, occupies less than 30% of the domestic
trade turnover;
environmentalists say that the area of China cannot
accommodate more than 1 billion people, but since this
number is significantly exceeded, environmental
degradation will occur and continue in the country;
There is a deep difference in GDP per capita between
individual regions: the most developed are more than
20 times ahead of the laggards!
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)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
The division of China into insular and continental parts;
China's economic growth requires a serious increase in
the consumption of hydrocarbons and other minerals.
China's geopolitical tasks:
Expanding the zone of political and economic
influence, first of all, to the centers of extraction of
mineral raw materials (Middle East, Africa, Central Asia,
Latin America);
ensuring unobstructed routes of hydrocarbon supply;
Adoption of new technologies, primarily space and
nuclear technologies.
"Pain points" of the country's geopolitical situation
China's high rate of economic development was
caused by the lack of certain natural resources,
primarily coal and ores.
The country is forced to import iron ore, ferrous and
non-ferrous metal scraps, and agricultural fertilizers
from abroad.
Lack of land limits employment growth in rural areas.
Urban unemployment is 31% official and 15% hidden.
Beijing officials see the solution to the problem in
creativity.
"Greater China" based on geopolitical integration with
the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
Any geopolitical tension between China and the US will
contribute not only to the strengthening of Japan-
China ties, but also to the strengthening of Japanese
capital in the Asia-Pacific region, which neither China
nor the US wants.
This threat can lead to the convergence of the strategic
interests of these two countries.
Japan acts primarily as a creditor and is now a major
trading partner
China, which often buys Japanese equipment,
technology and goods, obviously, Japan is trying to
limit the development of China's technical,
technological and export potential by preventing its
neighbor from entering traditional markets for its
products.
At the same time, it is necessary to remember the
degree of dependence of Japan on the United States
(US military bases in Okinawa and other parts of the
country).
The problems of China's existence and development
force it to seek a way out of the current difficult
demographic, social, environmental and economic
situation. Therefore, not only Russia, but also other
geographically neighboring countries, the countries of
the Asia-Pacific region, the USA, as well as Great
Britain, Germany, etc., are watching the geostrategy of
the great neighbor.
For centuries, China's geopolitics was twofold.
This is because, on the one hand, the "Middle
Kingdom" belongs to the "coastal zone" of the Pacific
Ocean, on the other hand, China has never been a
thalassocratic state, because it has always been led. on
continental archetypes. Since the beginning of the 19th
century.
The Empire of Heaven is gradually becoming a semi-
colony of the West (mainly Great Britain). Therefore,
from the beginning of the 19th century until October
1949 (the establishment of the People's Republic of
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China), China's geopolitics was mainly forced
Atlanticism. .
China acted as the Eurasian coastal base of the West.
After the victory over the Kuomintang and the
declaration of the People's Republic of China, China
initially pursued a pro-Soviet, essentially Eurasian
policy.
Then the Chinese leadership adopted the ideology of
"autarchy", that is, self-reliance, a vivid example of
which was the policy of the "Great Leap Forward" and
the "Cultural Revolution".
At the same time, the main goal of China at this stage
is not to get involved in any conflicts with the West, to
save time both for the comprehensive strengthening
of its economy and for the formation of reliable
geopolitical positions: mainly in the Northeast and
Southeast.
Cooperation between Asian countries is able to ensure
a huge volume of trade and conduct a new policy in the
Asia-Pacific region against American claims to this
region. The idea of creating a Russian-Indo-Chinese
block deserves attention.
China's geostrategic goal will be to dominate the Asia-
Pacific region from the Philippines and Indonesia to
Burma.
In the north, China's foreign policy focuses on
Mongolia and Russia.
The PRC is actively seeking the real recognition of
"special relations" with Mongolia, with the aim of
developing a sufficiently large territory. relatively small
population. China forces its neighbors to refuse to
participate in coalitions against China, to recognize
that it plays a leading role in the region.
Since 2012, at the 18th Congress of the Communist
Party of China, attention has been increased to the
field of military construction - the security of the sea,
space and network space.
Thus, the PRC has a thalassocratic agenda: by 2025,
plans to create a "mid-level naval force" are being
implemented.
Here, the experience of traditional naval forces (USA,
Russia, Japan) has been thoroughly developed and
mastered.
China's naval forces in the Pacific region are not only
one of the strongest, but the rate of its growth -
quantitatively and with the highest technology - is truly
impressive.
All the geopolitical actors who are watching this closely
are influential, some of them with secret panic.
Especially the US and its relative ally in the region,
Japan, which is still linked to American military bases.
All this leads to the achievement of the global goal - to
turn China into a superpower capable of challenging
not only the United States, but the entire West.
It seeks not to wage an open struggle, but to covert
expansion, suppress the will of other countries that are
gaining strength (demographic, economic, military)
and isolate potential competitors.
At the same time, it will not enter into alliances that will
in one way or another block its actions and thereby
prioritize China's main interests, rather than those of
the entire world community.
The selection of allies of the PRC was and is not carried
out quantitatively, but on qualitative platforms and
taking into account specific geopolitical "points of
contact".
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China's Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Prospects to
2030
The People's Republic of China has successfully
completed the first strategic phase of the global
program of fundamental modernization of the state.
At a ceremony held in honor of the 100th anniversary
of the Communist Party of China, the General Secretary
of the CPC Central Committee, Xi Jinping, announced
the "achieving the goal of the century" - building a
moderately prosperous society in the PRC. The exact
final figures are contained in the White Paper China's
Epic Journey from Poverty to Prosperity published by
the State Council of the People's Republic of China. The
next strategic stage is the construction of a "great
unified society" in China. Its goal is to deeply
reorganize the country's economy and state
administration. It should ensure the harmony of
market instruments with the strategic state planning
system, as well as strengthen the balance between the
high material standard of living and the socialist social
norms of the society. In fact, we are talking about the
further development of the process of forming the
unique Chinese model of "market socialism". As
China's leadership has emphasized, it should adopt the
best qualities of the market and planned economy, as
well as neutralize their inherent shortcomings.
It is noted that the establishment of the "Great Unity
Society" is the next stage of the global complex
program, which is planned to be completed by 2035.
More than six months ago, in March 2021, the
RUSSTRAT Institute considered this problem in the
context of the next decade. It is time to re-examine
China's development prospects in monitoring mode.
The change in direction has already been accompanied
by a number of radical steps in the political and
economic spheres, indicating that significant changes
are expected in geopolitics and geoeconomics in the
next decade and a half.
China's economic prospects for the next 10-15 years
China is rightfully considered the main "factory" of the
world and the main contender for achieving
undisputed superiority in the world economy.
Officially, this opinion is correct. Although China's
nominal GDP ($14.72 trillion for 2020) is still lower than
that of the United States ($20.6 trillion), China's
economy in terms of purchasing power parity ($24.142
trillion) has already surpassed the American economy
without a doubt.
Its share in the total world economy reached 18.33%,
and the share of the United States reached 15.9%. In the
next places: India - 6.76%, Japan - 4.03%, Germany -
3.41%. Russia took the sixth place in this rating (3.11%).
Although, taking into account the results of the
European Union, as an economic union with a
combined gross domestic product of 16.1 trillion
dollars, it should be recognized as the third place. China
also occupies a leading position in the volume of
foreign trade.
At the end of 2020, it amounted to 4.65 trillion dollars
(an increase of 1.5% compared to the result of 2019). In
particular, exports amounted to 2.59 trillion dollars (an
increase of 3.6%), imports to 2.06 trillion. dollar (1.1%
decrease). The foreign trade balance is positive - 535
billion dollars or 11.5% of the country's foreign trade
turnover. Against the background of the total US
foreign trade turnover of 3.835 trillion (exports of 1.43
trillion dollars, imports of 2.405 trillion dollars, a
decrease of 13.01 percent and 6.31 percent,
respectively, compared to 2019), China has already
achieved a clear lead, which will only be. grow up .
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SJIF
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(2022:
5.
705
)
(2023:
6.
713
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
This is already causing rapidly growing economic and
geopolitical tensions in relations with the United
States. However, the influence of large numbers
remains behind the scenes, neglecting which leads to
distortion of the final conclusions. China's share of the
world economy is not because Beijing is trying its best
to "buy the whole world."
As a result of research, the following conclusions were
drawn.
1. In the post-bipolar period, international relations are
characterized by the emergence of new large entities
with both economic potential and political ambitions.
In turn, the internal problems of the hegemonic state -
the United States of America - force them to reduce
their foreign political activity in strategic regions of the
world.
2. Based on the criteria of hegemony proposed by Z.
Brzezinskiy, it can be said that China can become a
regional hegemon in a short period of time because it
has the necessary potential and has a strategically
favorable location.
3. China's national interests are to achieve regional
hegemony that can lead to global scale through the
implementation of "soft power" policy, ensuring the
economic security of the state, as well as the
development of strategic cooperation with EOII and
ASEAN.
4. In order to implement China's foreign policy
strategy, it must address issues that threaten national
security.
In the long run, a new bipolar balance may be
established, given the antagonistic geopolitical
interests of the US and China.
Several scenarios were selected for the development
of the geopolitical and geoeconomic situation in the
region. It should be noted that both positive and
negative scenarios can arise in each model.
In our opinion, the modern geopolitical position of
Central Asia was formed under the influence of the
West, Russia and China, and such a geopolitical
structure based on these power centers will remain
relevant in the future.
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