Lemmy Brooks Journal

Using annual Nigerian data (1981–2023), this study examines the long‑run and short‑run nexus between climate change and fiscal policy, with climate change proxied by per‑capita carbon dioxide emissions excluding land‑use change (World Development Indicators) and fiscal policy proxied by the general government consumption share of GDP and net taxes on products (Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin). Given the presence of structural change in Nigeria’s macro‑fiscal environment, we combine break‑robust unit‑root testing (Zivot–Andrews) with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration and a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) specification that allows asymmetric fiscal shocks. Unit‑root tests indicate that the variables are integrated of order one, and bounds tests strongly support cointegration. In the baseline ARDL, the estimated error‑correction term is negative and statistically significant (–1.264), implying rapid adjustment to the long‑run equilibrium after shocks. Long‑run elasticities suggest that a higher government consumption share is associated with lower emissions. In contrast, a higher net‑tax share is associated with higher emissions, consistent with Nigeria’s oil‑linked tax base and the weak environmental content of most taxes. The NARDL results reveal important asymmetry: positive fiscal expansions (increases in the government consumption share) significantly reduce emissions in the long run, while fiscal contractions have smaller and statistically weaker effects. Dynamic multipliers confirm convergence to the estimated long‑run effects within a decade. Robustness checks using dynamic ordinary least squares support the emissions‑reducing role of government spending. The findings underscore the need to re‑orient fiscal policy toward climate‑compatible public spending, remove distortionary fossil‑fuel subsidies, and mainstream climate risks into Nigeria’s medium‑term fiscal framework.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents one of Africa's most ambitious economic integration initiatives, with significant implications for trade expansion, industrialization, and structural transformation. This study examines the implications of AfCFTA for trade integration and industrial development in Nigeria using a policy-oriented secondary data approach. Data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, Nigerian Export Promotion Council, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, African Union publications, and relevant peer-reviewed literature. The analysis combined descriptive statistics, comparative policy analysis, qualitative content analysis, and SWOT analysis to assess Nigeria's preparedness for AfCFTA implementation. The findings indicate gradual improvements in Nigeria's intra-African trade participation and manufacturing diversification. However, persistent challenges, including inadequate infrastructure, unreliable electricity supply, regulatory inefficiencies, limited access to finance, and weak industrial competitiveness, continue to constrain the country's ability to maximize the benefits of continental trade liberalization. The study further reveals that achieving the full industrial potential of AfCFTA requires complementary domestic reforms aimed at strengthening productive capacity, improving the business environment, deepening regional value-chain integration, and enhancing institutional coordination. By jointly assessing trade performance, industrial readiness, and policy capacity, the study provides a comprehensive policy perspective to support strategic industrial development and Nigeria's effective participation in the AfCFTA framework.