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THE ROLE OF THE EXTERNAL FACTOR IN CENTRAL ASIA:
ANALYSIS OF OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS
Sarbinaz Reipnazarova
Doctoral Researcher, International Relations Department,
University of World Economy and Diplomacy Tashkent, Uzbekistan
sarbi_reipnazarova@mail.ru
Abstract
. The geostrategic importance of the Central Asian region is
associated with its geographical location, the presence of significant reserves of
natural resources, as well as its important transit potential. Today, the countries of
Central Asia are going through a stage of serious transformations associated with
the strengthening of the role of external players in the region. The Central Asian
region is becoming the target of major power confrontation and geopolitical
confrontation between the world's leading players for resources and political
influence. In this context, it is important for the Central Asian countries to assess
both emerging opportunities and risks to maintain geopolitical balance and create
a belt of security, stability and economic development around the Central Asian
region.
Key words:
Central Asia, external forces, transport and logistics corridors,
geopolitical confrontation, geopolitical balance, USA, Russia, China, EU, regional
cooperation.
MARKAZIY OSIYODAGI TASHQI OMILNING ROLI:
IMKONIYATLAR VA XAVFLAR TAHLILI
Annotatsiya.
Markaziy Osiyo mintaqasining geostrategik ahamiyati uning
geografik joylashuvi, tabiiy resurslarning katta zaxiralariga ega bo‘lishi hamda
muhim transport va logistika
salohiyatiga ega bo‘lishi bilan bog‘liqdir. Bugungi
kunda Markaziy Osiyo davlatlari mintaqadagi tashqi kuchlarning rolini
kuchaytirish bilan bog‘liq jiddiy transformatsiya bosqichini o‘tayapti. Markaziy
Osiyo mintaqasi dunyoning yetakchi davlatlari o‘rtasidagi resurslar va siyosiy ta’sir
uchun raqobat va geosiyosiy ziddiyatlar ob'ektiga aylanmoqda. Shu nuqtai
nazardan, Markaziy Osiyo davlatlari yangi imkoniyatlar va xavflarni baholashlari,
geosiyosiy muvozanatni saqlab qolish va Markaziy Osiyo mintaqasining atrofida
xavfsizlik, barqarorlik va iqtisodiy rivojlanish kamarini yaratish zarurligini
tushunishlari muhimdir.
Kalit so‘zlar:
Markaziy Osiyo, tashqi kuchlar, transport va logistika yo‘llari,
geosiyosiy ziddiyat, geosiyosiy muvozanat, AQSH, Rossiya, Xitoy, Yevropa Ittifoqi,
mintaqaviy hamkorlik.
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РОЛЬ ВНЕШНЕГО ФАКТОРА В ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ АЗИИ:
АНАЛИЗ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЕЙ И РИСКОВ
Аннотация.
Геостратегическое значение Центральноазиатского
региона связано с его географическим положением, наличием значительных
запасов природных ресурсов, а также его важным транзитным
потенциалом. Сегодня страны Центральной Азии переживают этап
серьезных трансформаций, связанных с усилением роли внешних игроков
в регионе. Центральноазиатский регион становится объектом
соперничества крупных держав и геополитической конфронтации мировых
ведущих игроков за ресурсы и политическое влияние. В этом контексте
важно, чтобы страны Центральной Азии оценили как возникающие
возможности, так и риски для поддержания геополитического баланса и
создания пояса безопасности, стабильности и экономического развития
вокруг Центральноазиатского региона.
Ключевые слова:
Центральная Азия, внешние силы, транспортно
-
логистические коридоры, геополитическая конфронтация, геополитический
баланс, США, Россия, Китай, ЕС,
региональное сотрудничество.
The modern world is faced with global changes that are associated with
competition between states for spheres of influence, conflicts, and ongoing wars.
Against the backdrop of these events, the countries of Central Asia are undergoing
a stage of serious transformation associated with the strengthening of the role of
external players in the region. The intensification of the role of leading world and
regional powers can be associated with the geostrategic importance of the Central
Asian region, namely its geographical location, and the presence of noticeable
reserves of natural resources, as well as its important logistics and transit
potential of the region.
Conventionally, there are several stages of geopolitical confrontation
between the world's leading players for resources and political influence in the
Central Asian region. The first stage is associated with the gaining of
independence of the Central Asian countries, when the leading world and regional
powers began to officially proclaim and implement their so-called Central Asian
strategies. These documents put forward reasons for pursuing a more active and
long-term policy in the Central Asian region. The United States, the European
Union, Russia, China, Turkey, Japan, India, and South Korea have put forward their
strategies. And the Central Asian countries themselves at that time were absorbed
in the problems of state formation and tried to find their way in foreign policy.
The second stage is associated with the entry of the international coalition into
Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001; the Central Asian
countries are pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy. The influence of not only
traditional actors represented by states is growing in the region, but also non-
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traditional actors: transnational companies and corporations have begun to
promote their interests. Today, precisely with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine,
many Central Asian experts have started talking about the third stage of
strengthening external players in Central Asia with the participation of Russia,
China, the USA, the EU, Turkey, India and Arab countries.
In this context, the importance of the region from a geopolitical and geo-
economic point of view is emphasized. It should be noted that the activation of
external players in the Central Asian region creates both opportunities and risks
for the countries of the region. Speaking of opportunities: this is the development
of transport and logistics projects, which will create conditions for Central Asia to
become an important transport and logistics hub of Eurasia. For example, today
the countries of Central Asia are increasingly paying increased attention to the
development of transport and logistics corridors. For example, according to data,
more than 80% of land transit traffic along the China-Europe corridor passes
through the territory of Kazakhstan. In addition, Kazakhstan approved the
concept for the development of transport and logistics potential until 2030. The
main goal of this concept is to become one of the regional leaders in terms of the
level of development of transport and transit potential, providing both internal
and external needs for efficient transportation. Uzbekistan has also begun to pay
great attention to the development of transport and logistics routes, for example,
on the initiative of Uzbekistan, in 2023, negotiations were held between
representatives of the transport and railway departments of Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey, who discussed the
transport corridor “China
–
Kazakhstan
–
Uzbekistan
–
Turkmenistan
–
Iran
–
Turkey
–
Europe.” In 2022,
the Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey railway route was launched. This
corridor has become the shortest and most convenient way for Uzbekistan for
export-import transactions with Turkey. Central Asia can become an important
transport and logistics hub for Eurasia.
Opportunities are opening up in attracting new investments and relocating
part of foreign business. Today, more than 60% of foreign investment in Central
Asia comes from Kazakhstan. Also, to attract investors, the leadership of
Uzbekistan is placing a serious emphasis on the development of green energy in
the country. For example, the construction project of a wind power plant in the
city of Zarafshan, Navoi region, received the PFI Awards as the deal of 2022 in
Central Asia. This project is being implemented by Masdar from the United Arab
Emirates. This trend could make Uzbekistan one of the leaders in the region in the
development of green energy, which may be of interest to new investors.
But we should not forget that the activation of external players brings not
only opportunities, but also risks. We see geopolitical destabilization growing in
the region. The region is surrounded by countries that are under Western
sanctions: Russia, Iran, Afghanistan. In turn, China and the United States are in a
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state of frozen confrontation. All this makes the geopolitical balance in Central
Asia very fragile.
In addition, the region is witnessing increased competition between
different countries for the extraction and processing of critical raw materials and
rare earth metals. In particular, Europe is interested in importing critical
materials in order to reduce the EU's dependence on the supply of these materials
through Russia from China. This explains the recent statement by the European
Union of its readiness to help the countries of Central Asia not only in the
extraction of rare earth and other metals, but also in their processing. For
example, Tajikistan may also become an area of increased interest from different
countries of the world due to the presence of significant reserves of antimony,
which currently amount to approximately 600 thousand tons. This is the third
place in the world, after Russia and China. The first to show interest in these
reserves was the United States, which has already created an appropriate joint
Tajik-American venture. As Tajik experts note, the US interest in Tajikistan in this
matter is due to the fact that the Americans received antimony mainly from China
and partly from Russia. But amid increasing tensions with China and the outbreak
of war in Ukraine, the United States is trying to find an alternative because
antimony is critical to the defense and semiconductor industries. In parallel, the
positions of Russia and China are strengthening, offering new formats for
interaction with the countries of the region.
Based on the above, the question arises of how Central Asian countries can
build relationships with external players so that this interaction with them leads
to the achievement of more favorable conditions for the countries of the region.
First of all, closer regional cooperation within Central Asia is needed.
Namely, close interaction and cooperation on a parity basis. Firstly, cooperation
between Central Asian countries will help unlock the economic potential of the
entire region. Secondly, interaction between countries in the region can become
an effective defense against unfriendly economic and political interference from
external forces.
Against the backdrop of events around the Central Asian region, it is
important to form and develop our own Central Asian agenda in the areas of
security, economic cooperation, energy, agriculture, transport and logistics.
Ultimately, the United States, Russia, China, the EU, and other geopolitical players
always proceed from their own interests when starting a game in our region. And
only we ourselves need to develop our own agenda for the development of the
region, minimizing the risks that have arisen and, without ignoring the emerging
opportunities, attracting equal partners who are ready to help us.
Ultimately, it is very important that the countries of the region are able to
balance their relations with various external actors, taking into account their
national interests and characteristics. Dialogue, cooperation and the development
of mutually beneficial relations can contribute to the sustainable development of
Central Asia and ensure its security and prosperity.
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References:
1.
Nitoiu (2018) The Influence of External Actors on Foreign Policy in the
Post-Soviet Space, Europe-Asia Studies, 70:5, 685-691. Available at:
https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2018.1480924
2.
The impact of external factors on security and development in Central
Asia. The United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central
Asia (UNRCCA). Available at: https://unrcca.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/
old_dnn/The%20Impact%20of%20External%20factors%20on%20Security%2
0and%20Development%20in%20Central%20Asia_ENG.pdf
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регион. Алматы
, 2016.
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Электронный
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–
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