Региональные проблемы и опасения в области безопасности: влияние негосударственных субъектов в регионе Афганистана и Пакистана (Аф-Пак)

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Regional security issues and concerns: impact of non-state
actors in the Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak) Region

Nivedita Das KUNDU

1

Uzbekistan State World Languages University

ARTICLE INFO

ABSTRACT

Article history:

Received October 2024

Received in revised form

15 November 2024
Accepted 15 December 2024

Available online

25 January 2025

The Af-Pak region is a critical geopolitical area, historically

serving as a conduit for trade and cultural exchange along the

Silk Road, but now recognized as the epicentre of international

terrorism. This article examines the prevailing security

environment in the region, focusing on the role of non-state
actors and their implications for regional stability. With its

strategic importance as a bridge between Eurasia and South

Asia, the region holds potential for economic integration

through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC), TAPI pipeline, and CASA-1000 electricity project.

However, persistent terrorism, weak governance, and

socioeconomic challenges continue to destabilize the region.

The paper highlights the intricate networks of terrorist groups,
the destabilizing influence of Pakistan's policies, and the

challenges faced by Afghanistan and Central Asia. Emphasizing

the need for regional collaboration, the article suggests

strengthening frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO), NATO, and Collective Security Treaty

Organisation (CSTO) to combat terrorism and ensure stability. A

unified regional approach is essential to counter transnational

threats and foster sustainable peace and development.

2181-

1415/©

2024 in Science LLC.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47689/2181-1415-vol5-

iss6-pp

208-215

This is an open access article under the Attribution 4.0 International

(CC BY 4.0) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.ru)

Keywords:

Af-Pak region,

regional security,

terrorism,

Central Asia,

CPEC,

SCO,

TAPI pipeline,

CASA-1000,

non-state actors,

narco-terrorism,

geopolitical stability.

1

PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Uzbekistan State World Languages University.

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Mintaqaviy xavfsizlik muammolari va xavotirlari:

Afg

‘

oniston-Pokiston (Af-Pak) mintaqasidagi nodavlat

aktorlarning ta

’

siri

ANNOTATSIYA

Kalit so‘zlar

:

Afg‘oniston mintaqasi,

mintaqaviy xavfsizlik,

terrorizm,

Markaziy Osiyo,

YEXHT,

SHHT,

TAPI quvuri,

SASA-1000,

nodavlat aktorlar,

narko-terrorizm,

geosiyosiy barqarorlik.

Afg‘oniston mintaqasi muhim geosiyosiy hudud bo‘lib,

tarixan Buyuk ipak

yo‘li bo‘ylab savdo va madaniy almashinuv

uchun kanal bo‘lib xizmat qilgan, ammo hozirda xalqaro

terrorizmning epitsentri sifatida tan olingan. Ushbu maqolada

mintaqada mavjud xavfsizlik muhiti o‘rganilib, nodavlat

subyektlarning roli va ularning mintaqaviy barqarorlikka

ta’siriga e’tibor qaratilgan. Yevroosiyo va Janubiy Osiyo
o‘rtasidagi ko‘prik sifatida o‘zining strategik ahamiyati bilan

mintaqa Xitoy-

Pokiston iqtisodiy yo‘lagi (CPEC), TAPI quvur

liniyasi va CASA-1000 elektr energiyasi loyihasi kabi

tashabbuslar orqali iqtisodiy integratsiya salohiyatiga ega.

Biroq, doimiy terrorizm, zaif boshqaruv va ijtimoiy-iqtisodiy
muammolar mintaqani beqarorlashtirishda davom etmoqda.

Ishda terrorchi guruhlarning murakkab tarmoqlari, Pokiston

siyosatining beqarorlas

htiruvchi ta’siri, Afg‘oniston va Markaziy

Osiyo duch kelayotgan muammolar yoritilgan. Mintaqaviy

hamkorlik zarurligini ta’kidlab, terrorizmga qarshi kurashish va
barqarorlikni ta’minlash uchun Shanxay Hamkorlik Tashkiloti

(SHHT), NATO va Kollektiv Xavfsizlik Shartnomasi Tashkiloti

(KXSHT) kabi tuzilmalarni mustahkamlash taklif etiladi.

Transmilliy tahdidlarga qarshi kurashish, barqaror tinchlik va

taraqqiyotni ta’minlash uchun yagona mintaqaviy yondashuv

muhimdir.

Региональные проблемы и опасения в области
безопасности: влияние негосударственных субъектов
в регионе Афганистана и Пакистана (Аф

-

Пак)

АННОТАЦИЯ

Ключевые слова:

Аф

-

Пакистанский регион,

региональная
безопасность,

терроризм,

Центральная Азия,

КПЭК,

ШОС,

трубопровод ТАПИ,

CASA-1000,

негосударственные
субъекты,

наркотерроризм,
геополитическая
стабильность.

Аф

-

Пакский

регион

является

важнейшей

геополитической зоной, исторически служившей каналом
для торговли и культурного обмена вдоль Шелкового пути,

но теперь признанной эпицентром международного

терроризма. В этой статье рассматривается сложившаяся в

регионе обстановка безопасности, с упором на роль
негосударственных

субъектов

и

их

влияние

на

региональную

стабильность.

Благодаря

своему

стратегическому значению в качестве моста между

Евразией и Южной Азией регион обладает потенциалом
для экономической интеграции посредством таких

инициатив, как Китайско

-

пакистанский экономический

коридор

(КПЭК),

трубопровод

ТАПИ

и

проект

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электроснабжения

CASA

-

1000.

Однако

постоянный

терроризм, слабое управление и социально

-

экономические

проблемы

продолжают

дестабилизировать

регион.

В статье освещаются сложные сети террористических

групп, дестабилизирующее влияние политики Пакистана и

проблемы, с которыми сталкиваются Афганистан и
Центральная

Азия.

Подчеркивая

необходимость

регионального

сотрудничества,

статья

предлагает

укрепить такие структуры, как Шанхайская организация

сотрудничества (ШОС), НАТО и Организация Договора о
коллективной безопасности (ОДКБ) для борьбы с

терроризмом и обеспечения стабильности. Единый

региональный подход необходим для противодействия
транснациональным угрозам

и содействия устойчивому

миру и развитию.

INTRODUCTION

Geo-strategically, Af-Pak region and its neighborhood form part of the same

strategic space. The ‘Old Silk’ Route was a conduit of shared prosperity and cross

-

fertilization of faiths and civilizations between the sub-continent

–

Central Asia

–

West

Asia and China. In the present era Af-Pak region infamously known as the epicenter of
international terrorism, has assumed the dimension of a strategic buffer to contain the
rising tide of terrorism. At the same time, its landmass forms a strategic bridge
connecting Eurasia with South Asia through an emerging network of trade and energy
corridors. With the onset of a conducive security environment in the region, prospects of
making strategic corridors such as One Road One Belt, Maritime Silk Route, China
Pakistan Economic Corridor, International North-South TransportCorridor, Chabahar-
Zaranj-Delaram-Central Asia, Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI), Iran-
Pakistan-India (IPI) and Central Asian South Asia (CASA)

–

1000 expected to promote

peace and prosperity in the region. With the improvement in the political environment,
Afghanistan could get direct access to India via Wagha border and Pakistan to Central
Asia via Afghanistan. However, if unable to curb terrorism, the risk of violence will
proliferate in Central Asia and South Asia, thus posing a major challenge to regional
peace and regional stability.

This article focuses on the assessment of the prevailing security environment in

the region, its implications for regional stability, and measures needed for building a
cooperative framework for sustainable peace and development in the region.

Terrorism in the Region Arc of Instability

A critical examination of the Human Development Indices (HDI) reveals that

several countries in this region are highly impoverished and lie in the arc of instability.
The poor HDI in these countries lends itself to the growth of radical ideologies and
violence thus compounding the threat to humanitarian security.

Af-Pak Region the Epicentre of International Terrorism

Al Qaeda and its affiliates continue to pose a formidable threat to regional security.

These forces are adherents of a militant Salfi-Wahabi ideology that seeks the creation of a
Caliphate, i.e. establishing Nizam e Mustafa (Sharia Law). They are opposed to the
concept of Westphalian democratic states and reject the concept of sovereignty of the

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people. They seek to expand their influence in the entire region by creating the mythical
state of Khurasan, encompassing the territory of Caucasus, Central Asia, Xinjinag
Province, Af-Pak region, Indian sub-continent etc. Outwardly, several Islamist radical
groups appear disparate and divergent in their objectives. Haqqani network, Hiz e Islami
and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are active in Afghanistan. Tehrik e Taliban of
Pakistan (TTP), Jundullah, and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar are fighting the Pakistan Government,
whereas, groups like Lashkar e Taiba, HizulMujahideen, Jaish e Mohamed, Jamat-ud-
Dawa and Al Qaeda in Indian sub-

continent (AQIS) are protégé of ISI, directed against

India. Sunni militant groups namely Sipah-e-Sahaba and Lashkar-e-Janghvi indulge in
killing of Shia Muslims and other minorities. Likewise, groups like Hizb e Tehrir, Jund al
Khalifa are active in Central Asia and have linkages with Jaish al Muhajireenwal Ansar
active in the Caucasus and East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) operating in the
Xinxiang province. The experts believe that an array of terrorist outfits may pursue
different tactical objectives but they are united in their overall ideological goal of creating
a Caliphate. Therefore, their Pan-Islamist outlook propels them to forge alliances in favor
of their larger religious cause. The assessment of terrorist networks in Af-Pak region and
Central Asia is briefly discussed in the succeeding paragraphs.

Volatile Situation Pakistan

Pakistan has become a factory of terrorism. It is a garrison state with a serious

identity problem and its military establishment exaggerates an existential threat from
India. It harbors the notion of using the territory of Afghanistan for achieving strategic
depth and sees the Indian presence in Afghanistan as a design aimed at the encirclement
of Pakistan. It also strives to establish a pro

–

Pakistan regime in Afghanistan that accepts

the Durand line as the border, thus mitigating its concerns of the possible creation of a
state of Pakhtunistan, based on Pashtun nationalism that spans across the Durand line. In
pursuance of its strategic objectives, it uses terrorist networks as an instrument of
foreign policy to conduct asymmetric warfare.

Pakistan’s much

-touted anti-terrorist campaign (Zarb-e Azb) has added to the

woes of Afghanistan. The Pakistan military establishment in their traditional duplicitous
manner had issued warnings and given ample time to terrorists to vacate the areas
astride Durand line and relocate themselves in Afghanistan. On the issue of fighting
terrorism and improving relations with India and Afghanistan, there is a widening drift
between the civil government and all-powerful military establishment. There are broadly
four categories of terrorists in Pakistan. First, the anti-state namely TPP, this group has
waged a war against the state and is responsible for a spate of terrorist strikes in
Peshawar and Punjab, to name a few. TPP has also undertaken sensational strikes against
education institutions and high-profile military targets such as naval bases, air bases,
military HQ, and training establishment. Anti

–

state terrorist groups are competing with

each other to strike Pakistan military branded by them as a ‘Kafir’ or

infidel army the

splinter groups of this outfit owe allegiance to ISIS. There is reluctance to crack down on
the Punjab-based terror groups that enjoy political patronage. There is a fear that anti-
terrorist operations in Punjab will have a serious political backlash for the government
and military; its lower ranks do have radicalized elements. Ethno

–

regional faultlines and

sectarian violence in Sindh, Baluchistan, Kyhber

–

Pakhtunkhwa

–

Punjab

–

Kashmir

–

Gilgit

–

Baltistan further exerts a centrifugal pull to sweep Pakistan from nationalism to

regionalism.

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The moot point is that Pakistan neither needs the American weapons nor the

Chinese veto at the UN to bail it out from declaring some of its protégé as terrorists. It

simply needs international intervention to moderate its behavior to put its house in
order and stop unleashing terrorism.

Situation in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is at a critical crossroads in its strategic destiny. The country is mired

in economic impoverishment, governance deficit, and politico-ethnic drift. Five
challenges to the Afghan government

–

a contracting economy, low growth, high

unemployment (25%), an intensifying insurgency, and political instability. On the

positive side, however, Afghanistan’s geographic centra

lity makes it a strategic hub for

the transportation of trade and energy resources between Central Asia-West Asia and
South Asia. A stable Afghanistan could thus change the geopolitical landscape of the
entire region for the better. Afghanistan can also emerge as a rallying point for the
international fight against terrorism. In this regard some key points:

Afghanistan is facing serious economic and political challenges. Its foreign aid and

poppy-driven Agriculture economy needs a major revamping. The growth rate in
Afghanistan has fallen and about 49% of the population lives below the poverty line. The
Afghan government will have to modernize agriculture encourage people to grow crops
and develop agro-based industry. Education, health, infrastructure, employment,
combating corruption and providing good governance will have to be the major thrust
areas to lift millions of people from the morass of poverty to dignified living standards.

Afghanistan is endowed with rich natural resources. A 2007 United States

Geological Service survey appears to have discovered nearly USD 1 trillion in mineral
deposits in Afghanistan. The Afghan government, however, feels the value is around USD
3 trillion. As per the survey, Afghanistan may hold 60 million tons of copper, 2.2 billion
tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements such as lanthanum, cerium, and
neodymium, and lodes of aluminium, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium. The mineral
resources are yet to be fully surveyed and harnessed. Further, Afghanistan lacks rail and
roadways infrastructure to transport its mineral resources. Hydropower is the main
source of energy in Afghanistan. Due to prolonged war, power grids in Afghanistan are
badly damaged. Afghanistan generates around 600 megawatts (MW) of electricity but as
per Da Afghanistan BreshnaSherkat (DABS) estimates; the country will need around
3,000 MW to meet its needs by 2025.1 Afghanistan is reported to have oil reserves
totaling 2.9 billion barrels and also produces natural gas.

Combating Narcotics

Provinces that were once declared poppy-free have seen a resurgence in

cultivation. Ironically, the production has increased due to the use of deep well
technology in previously non

–

Arabble land. Drug trafficking has been a main source of

income for corrupt government officials. Drug addiction in Afghan society runs into
generations since opium is taken as a medicine for relief of pain due to lack of medical
facilities. Drug addiction, therefore, has had a phenomenal humanitarian security cost not
only for Afghan society but the international community at large. Central Asia became a
major drug trafficking conduit to Russia and Europe. Narco-terrorism is a serious
transnational threat that merits attention.

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The situation in Central Asia

Geospatially and historically Af-Pak region and Central Asia are part of the same

strategic space. Afghanistan shares porous borders with Tajikistan (1344 Km),

Uzbekistan Border (137 Km), and Turkmenistan (744 Km). Demographically; there are

close ethnic linkages between Central Asians and Afghanistan. Out of the 31 million

Population of Afghanistan, Pashtun is 42%, Tajiks 27 %, Hazaras 9%, Uzbek 9%, and,

Turkmens 3%. Afghanistan assumes significant importance in the security calculus of

Russia, China, and Central Asian States. Afghanistan was at the center stage of the Great

Game of the 19th century between Great Britain and Russia culminating in its status as a

strategic buffer between the two major powers. In the 20th century, Afghanistan again

witnessed a virulent conflict between the Soviet Union and the US that saw the

legitimization of terrorism and eventually turned Af- Pak region as an epicenter of

international terrorism.

2001 to topple regime in Uzbekistan and in 2003 carried out terrorist strikes in

Tashkent. Fergana valley is a flash point intra and interstate conflicts over unresolved

border disputes between Uzbekistan and its neighbours, contentions over sharing of

water between upper and lower riparian states besides ethnic strife. Civil War in

Tajikistan, Tulip Revolutions in Kyrgyzstan Andijan Uprising in 2005 in Uzbekistan and

ethnic clashes in 2010 in Kyrgyzstan are stark reminders of the fragile security scenario

in the region. The region also faces problems of narco-terrorism and risk of nuclear-

terrorism due to access to orphan fissile material that could be used for making low-yield

radiation bombs and can trigger socio-political and security crises.

Implications for Regional Stability

It needs no emphasis that the Af-Pak region with wider ramifications for the

Central Asian region, Xinjiang province, and the Caucasus. Escalation of violence and

radicalization are fraught with risks of state collapse. Particularly susceptible to terrorist

influence is Fergana Valley in Central Asia where the traditionally orthodox population

faces a perceived sense of relative deprivation and ethnic divide. De-stabilization of

Af-Pak region, Central Asia, and Xinjiang province will have unintended consequences for

China’s One Road One

Belt project, the flow of energy resources from the Caspian region,

and the operationalization of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Likewise,

emboldened terrorists have the potential to escalate violence in the Kashmir area. This

could heighten the risk of nuclear terrorism and scuttle the prospects of Turkmenistan-

Afghanistan-Pakistan

–

India (TAPI) and Iran

–

Pakistan

–

India (IPI)pipelines and Central

Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA 1000 MW) electricity

project. It is, therefore, pertinent that the regional countries are cognizant of this larger

Trans-national threat that can destabilize the region.

Conclusion-Collaboration in Combating Terrorism

Looking from a broader strategic perspective, building cooperation to fight

terrorism in the Af-Pak region and its neighborhood is plausibly a win-win paradigm. The

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) being active in the region has emerged as the

most formidable regional grouping dealing with regional security and development

issues. The SCO should earnestly work on sharing intelligence, combating narco-

terrorism, nuclear-terrorism, curbing terror-financing networks, cyber security, capacity

building, interoperability, and conducting counter-terrorism exercises. The key to

fighting terrorism lies in undertaking joint counter-terrorism operations by Afghanistan

and Pakistan along the Durand line and dismantling the terrorist infrastructure there.

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Likewise, Russia and three Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and

Kyrgyzstan) are members of the Collective Security Organizations (CSTO). Both these
organizations have established Anti-Terrorist Centres in Central Asia and regularly
conduct joint military training to combat terrorism. On the other hand, the North Atlantic
Treaty Organisation (NATO) under the Programme for Peace (PfP) is engaged in capacity
building against non-traditional threats in the region. The regional leadership and these
organizations should assiduously shed their traditional mindsets and explore the
avenues for creating a collaborative security framework and mechanisms to foster
cooperation between NATO, SCO and CSTO to fight terrorism.

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