The American Journal of Interdisciplinary Innovations
and Research
6
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajiir
TYPE
Original Research
PAGE NO.
13-18
10.37547/tajiir/Volume07Issue03-03
OPEN ACCESS
SUBMITED
03 January 2025
ACCEPTED
05 February 2025
PUBLISHED
15 March 2025
VOLUME
Vol.07 Issue03 2025
CITATION
Namozov Jurabek Abduazizovich, & Mengboyev Farkhod Fazliddin oglu.
(2025). Impact And Consequences of Climate Change on Migration in
Uzbekistan. The American Journal of Interdisciplinary Innovations and
Research, 7(03), 13
–
18. https://doi.org/10.37547/tajiir/Volume07Issue03-03
COPYRIGHT
© 2025 Original content from this work may be used under the terms
of the creative commons attributes 4.0 License.
Impact And Consequences
of Climate Change on
Migration in Uzbekistan
Namozov Jurabek Abduazizovich
Associate Professor of Chirchik State Pedagogical University, PhD, doc,
Uzbekistan
Mengboyev Farkhod Fazliddin oglu
Student of Chirchik State Pedagogical University, Uzbekistan
Abstract:
The article examines the impact of climate
change-related problems on migration processes in
Uzbekistan. In particular, migration sectors affecting
agriculture,
water
resources,
and
economic
opportunities are analyzed. Also, proposals and
recommendations are made to address the problems
arising in the structure of economic sectors and labor
resources as a result of climate change.
Keywords:
Climate change, population, migration,
economic sectors, resources, environmental factors,
population settlements.
Introduction:
The impact of environmental and climatic
conditions on the migration movements of the
population and the problems arising from them can be
considered a new area for demographic research, since
scientists began to pay attention to this topic relatively
recently, when humanity began to face the negative
consequences
of
climatic
phenomena.
The
development of theoretical and methodological
approaches to the study of migration caused by climatic
and ecological factors is still ongoing. The population
has been forced to leave their places of residence for
many reasons, namely economic, social, political
factors, and this continues. Climate change is a powerful
force driving internal migration, which is closely related
to the income sources of the population and has a sharp
impact on the quality of life of the population in the
regions where its impact is most felt. The population
increases its need for economic opportunities.
Climate change is a process that is often mentioned and
much discussed as one of the global problems of the
21st century. In recent years, phenomena resulting from
climate change have been observed in almost all parts
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The American Journal of Interdisciplinary Innovations and Research
of the world.
RESEARCH METHODS
Comparative, comparative geographical, statistical,
zoning, cartographic, statistical - mathematical.
RESULTS
Climate change is a process that occurs as a result of
changes in air temperature and other meteorological
parameters over the years. In recent years, climate
change has been occurring much faster than in
previous periods. Previously, abrupt processes in
climate change occurred much more slowly. Currently,
the main cause of climate change is pollutants emitted
by factories and enterprises, cars. As a result of the
increase in water vapor, methane and soot gases and
other pollutants in the air, a “greenhouse effect”
appears. When sunlight enters the atmosphere, 70
percent falls on the earth's surface, and the earth, in
turn, returns a certain part of the rays falling on the
surface to space through the atmosphere. This returned
light is trapped by greenhouse gases. This accelerates
the warming of the Earth, a process known as the
“greenhouse effect” [3].
Climate change is reshaping human mobility across the
planet. Climate-related hazards such as floods, storms
and wildfires are already major drivers of global human
change. Policy advances in the area of climate migration
are crucial because they have implications not only
globally but also at regional, national and subnational
levels. They are particularly important for countries and
their populations that are most vulnerable to climate
change, in particular the least developed countries and
landlocked developing countries, including Uzbekistan.
Figure 1. The map of Uzbekistan
Forced migration has long been proven to have
negative impacts on countries and their populations.
The country is currently experiencing a difficult period
in combating climate change and its consequences,
which is hampering efforts to achieve sustainable
development and the ability of the population to live
in a comfortable environment. Studies show that
migration due to climate change and various extreme
weather events is increasing year by year, and experts
note that these events will have a significant impact on
Uzbekistan in the future [9]. As a result, the likelihood
of economic problems in the republic is high. Based on
the above considerations, the relationship between
integrated
climate-related
migration
and
environmental change and migration in the country can
be explained by the following main theories and factors:
❖
Climate change theory (Hansen. J, Mann, M. and
Solomon, S.): Climate warming, increasing global
temperatures lead to changes in climatic conditions
such as drought, which forces people to move to
safer areas.
❖
Environmental degradation theory (J. Lovelock, D.
Attenborough.): Due to desertification, intensive
land use and climate change, the area of deserts is
increasing, which forces rural residents to find new
lands for agriculture.
❖
Natural resource depletion theory (J. Rockstrom, K.
Raworth.): It is under the influence of this factor
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that interregional labor migration occurs.
❖
Water scarcity factor. Changes in the water
balance, such as the drying up of rivers and lakes,
make it impossible to conduct agriculture and
meet the water needs of the population, leading to
migration.
❖
Soil depletion factor. The decline in soil fertility due
to erosion, intensive farming and the use of
agrochemicals is forcing farmers to look for new
land. Climate change is also having a negative
impact on this process.
❖
Environmental
pollution
factor.
Industrial
pollution, accidents at chemical plants create
dangerous conditions for life and health, forcing
people to leave polluted areas.
❖
Mineral deposits and toxic waste. These
phenomena lead to the destruction of ecosystems
and deterioration of living conditions.
❖
Ecological factors [8].
The impact of climate change on migration may not be
directly noticeable, but by influencing these factors, it
causes people to move towards a more favorable
environment. Below you will find enough information
about some of the main factors and problems affecting
the migration process.
Recently, the warming process has been accelerating
all over the world. After 2015, the air temperature on
the planet has increased by 1.2
–
1.3 degrees Celsius
compared to the norm for the last 150 years. This is
observed in Uzbekistan at high values, namely, close to
2 degrees Celsius. This frequency provides record
seasonal heat almost every year. Given the
geographical location of our region, which has always
had its own unique climatic conditions and its location
between continents, we are experiencing an increase
in droughts. This, of course, is caused by climate
change and rising air temperatures. Compared to the
last century, our annual temperature increase has
increased by 1.5
–
2 degrees [7].
According to archival data, in 1961
–
1991, the flow of
cold air into Uzbekistan was 20
–
24 percent of the year,
and in the summer months, cold currents also entered
the republic, slightly moderating the air. The flow of cold
air into the republic has decreased by 8 percent over the
past 30 years. That is, now the flow of cold air into the
region has decreased by 3 times compared to the last
century. In recent years, the summer months have been
very hot. Winter is also warm. Changes can be observed
in other seasons [9].
Also, climate change increases the risk of drought in our
region. The air becomes drier due to a decrease in water
vapor in the air and atmospheric humidity. This directly
leads to the evaporation of a large amount of water
from natural and artificial reservoirs into the air. Less
snowfall in the mountains, rapid melting of stable
glaciers leads to low water content. As a result, changes
are observed in the lives of the population living in and
around desert areas, their lifestyle becomes more
difficult, and climate migrants appear. They begin to
look for places with better conditions. By 2050, we may
lose 25-50 percent of productivity in the agricultural
sector. This will lead to an increase in the cost of food
products. In this case, the population will also migrate
periodically in order to find agricultural land. There is a
shortage of labor in production enterprises in areas with
a negative ecological situation, and even if they exist,
their monthly salaries will be relatively high. All this is an
unnecessary expense. In the economic sectors, the
shortage of natural resources (water, land, livestock,
animals, etc.) used creates a shortage, which, as a result,
leads to an increase in the price of consumer goods.
Economic distress is observed.
Scientists conducted scientific research in order to
combat the effects of climate change in the agricultural
sector of the Government of Uzbekistan. As a result, 4
scenarios of climate change (namely, temperature and
precipitation) in the Republic of Karakalpakstan,
Kashkadarya and Tashkent regions until 2059 were
developed - moderate, hot-dry, warm-humid and dry
climate change, with forecasts of the impact of water on
the main crops, horticulture, livestock and agricultural
irrigation in these regions [7].
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Figure 2. Forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation
The figures show that while the northern regions are
experiencing less climate change than the southern
regions, if no practical work is done on climate change
adaptation, in the future there is a possibility that
water shortages will lead to the loss of viability of crops
grown in these regions as well. And this is almost half
of the country. This means that the population of lands
with low agricultural potential may be forced to
climate migration. True, it is noteworthy that
Uzbekistan has already begun to solve these problems,
and this is a positive step towards reducing global
carbon dioxide emissions. But agriculture requires a
specific approach, namely drastic practical measures.
Which region will feel climate change the most?
Uzbekistan is located in the subtropical and temperate
climate zone. Scenarios show that warming air
temperatures will lead to a shift of latitudes by 150-200
kilometers to the north every 30 years. As a result of
this displacement, the Surkhandarya and oasis regions
will warm up even more. Previously, since the Aral Sea
was full, evaporation was constantly observed in its
basin, which led to a somewhat higher humidity there.
Currently, due to the lack of evaporation, the air in the
Aral Sea region has become drier. For this reason, the
residents of Karakalpakstan and Khorezm regions feel
that it is getting hotter than in Surkhandarya.
Our southern regions mainly consist of pastures.
However, due to the increase in continuous warm
winter days, pasture areas are decreasing. In the
summer months, the decrease in water vapor in the air
increases the dryness in the air, which affects the
vegetation period. This dryness causes desertification.
The residents of the Fergana Valley, which is called
Paradise, are also feeling the heat better than in the
previous 30-40 years. In many places, farming is
becoming more difficult. In the future, climate change
will also intensify in the Aral Sea region: Karakalpakstan,
Khorezm, Navoi and Surkhandarya regions.
Under the influence of climate change, the area of
deserts in the republic is increasing, and arid climatic
conditions are increasingly affecting the population
living in the plains. Previously, there were many
populated points on the Aral Sea, such as Jaslyk and
Muynak. Now, if you go there, they are in ruins. Because
people were forced to leave their places of residence
and move due to the drying up of the Aral Sea and the
loss of existing infrastructure there.
Due to improper use of the Aral Sea water, it dried up,
leaving salts and other minerals in the soil. They not only
polluted the soil, but also rose through the wind and
storms and spread to other areas, including cultivated
areas and residential areas. This led to an increase in
respiratory diseases and cancer. There is no doubt that
the shrinking Aral Sea has caused health problems for
the local population.
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Figure 3. Population settlements in the Aral Sea region
If we look at the statistics, only 0.3% of the world's air
pollutants are emitted into the air in Uzbekistan.
However, like all countries, we are equally affected by
climate change [9].
DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
Climate change is becoming increasingly important for
human migration. Environmental problems are usually
insignificant factors in the migration decisions of the
population, and usually lag far behind economic
requirements, even in regions strongly affected by
climate. That is, they are not the main force driving
migration in the regions of the republic. However, this
situation is one of the current and future urgent
economic problems [2].
Under the influence of climate change, the number of
migrants from villages to cities, and from cities to
regions with better climatic conditions, is increasing. At
the same time, we see that many urban residents are
leaving for mountainous regions on weekends. On the
one hand, this situation develops domestic tourism.
But if the existing infrastructure in each area is not
good, people will leave their homes and the number of
climate migrants will continue to increase.
Climate change can directly affect both the economy
and migration. For example; the economic impacts of
climate change are as follows:
- Impact on agriculture: Warmer temperatures and
adverse weather conditions can lead to reduced yields
and reduced quality of agricultural products. This will
harm food security and agricultural exports.
- Resource scarcity: It will negatively affect the
distribution of natural resources, especially water
resources. On the other hand, the demand for basic
resources such as electricity and water supply in rural
and urban areas will increase.
- Natural disasters and economic shocks, etc.
And, at the same time, the economic impacts of
climate change related to the impact on migration can
also be very wide-ranging. For example;
Unemployment and labor market: Climate change
may cause people to move from many areas. Such
migration may increase unemployment, especially in
rural areas. This, in turn, increases labor market
competition in new areas.
Resource distribution: Climate change may change the
distribution of natural resources. This may make living
and working conditions more difficult, especially for
people involved in agriculture and farming.
Health system: Climate change and its associated
migration may place additional burdens on the health
system of the displaced population. For example, an
increase in climate-related diseases (e.g., infectious
diseases) will increase the demand for health services.
Infrastructure and resource pressure: As a result of
migration, the population arriving in new areas will have
to use a lot of infrastructure (housing, roads, energy
networks) and services. This can put a lot of pressure on
existing infrastructure systems.
All these problems are caused by the anthropogenic
factor, due to the irrational use of resources by people.
For example, Tashkent is in the TOP 10 cities in the
world in terms of air pollution. The capital's air pollution
is caused by a decrease in greenery, chaotic
construction, high traffic flow, toxic emissions from coal
and fuel oil. The population of the city suffers from this
situation.
Unfortunately,
both
natural
and
anthropogenic factors are responsible for air pollution.
Currently, the area of the capital is 330 sq. km. and the
number of permanent residents is officially 3,112.8
thousand people (January 1, 2025). However, in reality,
the population of the city is much higher than this
amount, that is, 1.5-2 times more. This is due to the fact
that residents of other regions of the republic are
actively migrating to the capital. It is true that although
the city's air is not ecologically clean, people moving
there prioritize their goals over it. However, it has a
negative impact on immigrants (people moving from
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other countries). It causes a number of economic
losses. The population density is quite high. That is, this
situation creates excessive pressure for the city. It is
not for nothing that the city's air is one of the world's
leaders in terms of pollution levels. As a result, the
likelihood of developing various diseases may be high.
If you pay attention, the ecological process in
Samarkand, Shakhrisabz and other cities of the
republic is not in such a deplorable state. Because in
such cities, infrastructure and population are not as
densely settled as in the capital within a very narrow
territory. To prevent these problems in Tashkent, it is
advisable to locate factories and production
enterprises outside the city, arrange population
settlements in an orderly manner, properly form a
transport system, organize chaotic construction
objects in an orderly manner and place them as far
outside the city as possible. Also, various harmful salts
from the bottom of the Aral Sea are flying under the
influence of the wind and falling into population
settlements. This situation negatively affects human
health and causes migration. Also, some of the salts
can fly and fall into mountain glaciers in distant
distances, causing them to melt much earlier than
normal. As a result, during the summer heat wave, it
creates a water shortage among the population of the
Aral Sea region and the plains of the republic. Examples
of environmental impacts that could affect human
health as a result of changes in the Aral Sea region
include “reduced water levels, pesticides in the
environment and food chain, dust storms, and changes
in the weather.” In order to avoid such impacts and
prevent drought and water shortages in the lowlands
of our country, it is necessary to use resources wisely
and increase green cover in arid and saline areas.
Migration can be managed in advance if a mechanism
to combat the increasing climate change is properly
developed. Properly implementing migration can
restore hope for people and communities and
contribute to the development of these countries.
These changes can have significant impacts on
ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and
lifestyles, which in turn can affect human populations
and their ability to survive in their current locations.
CONCLUSION
Thus, in some regions of our country, due to factors
such as the occurrence of unfavorable natural and
climatic conditions specific to a particular region, as
well as the deterioration of natural climatic conditions
as a result of climate change, migration processes can
occur and lead to economic losses. In addition, such
migrations directly caused by natural and climatic
factors can occur in forced and voluntary forms. The
area of our republic is limited, and the population is
constantly increasing. Therefore, it should be the duty
of every citizen to eliminate such urgent problems as
soon as possible.
Usually, when agricultural productivity decreases due to
climate change or other weather phenomena, people
often move to new areas as a means of protecting
themselves from food and water insecurity. Some
people migrate in search of better opportunities to
adapt to the climate. They think that changes will affect
their lifestyle, health, or food security.
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