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PUBLISHED DATE: - 27-11-2024
DOI: -
https://doi.org/10.37547/tajmei/Volume06Issue11-09
CROSS-BORDER TRADE BETWEEN EUROPE
AND UNITED KINGDOM AFTER BREXIT
Anvarjon Niyazov
Under the Guidance of Professor David W. Auberry, Ph.D. Campbellsville
University, United States
INTRODUCTION
Brexit was the withdrawal of the United Kingdom
(UK) from the European Union (EU) on 31st
January 2020. The UK is the only sovereign country
to leave the EU. The UK was the member of EU and
the EC since long time and that is since 1st January
1973. After the Brexit EU laws have no Primacy
over the British laws, except in selected areas in
relation to Northern Ireland. Under the terms of
the Brexit withdrawal agreement the Northern
Ireland continues to participate in the European
single market in relation to goods and be a de facto
member of the EU customs Union. The EU and its
institutions have developed gradually since their
establishment and during the 47 years of British
membership and grew to be of significant
economic and political importance to the United
Kingdom. The effects of Brexit will in part be
determined by the cooperation agreement which
provisionally will be applied from January 202 and
came into force in May 2021.
Economists and other analysts believed that Brexit
would have damaged immediate and longer-term
effects on the economies of the UK and a part of the
EU27. Economists thought that the Brexit would
reduce the per capita income for UK and will
damage the GDP of the UK. The studies found that
Brexit-induced uncertainty reduced British GDP,
British national income, investment by business,
employment and British international trade from
June 2016 onwards. The UK’s high levels of spatial
inequality have motivated interest in forecasting
the regional effects of Brexit (McCann 2018).
However, studies using different theoretically
motivated measures of Brexit exposure give
conflicting answers about which regions are likely
to be hardest hit. Dhingra, Machin and Overman
(2017) estimate the impact of Brexit on local gross
value added by interacting sectoral estimates of
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Abstract
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the impact of future trade barriers at the national
level from Dhingra et al. (2017) with sectoral
employment shares by local authority and
metropolitan areas. They find that areas with
larger services sectors, such as London and the
southeast would be worse hit. Interestingly, these
areas also had lower Leave vote shares on average.
By contrast, using regionalized input-output tables
to measure the share of domestic value-added
embodied in UK-EU trade, Chen et al. (2018) finds
that poorer regions in the midlands and north of
England are more exposed to Brexit.[1]
LITERATURE REVIEW
In 2017 United Kingdom gave a formal notice to
European Union about the discontinuation of its
membership and bought the whole union in shock.
Although most of the Britain’s
establishment
backed and wanted to stay back, almost half
percent (52%) of voters disagreed and handed a
surprise victory to the discontinuation campaign.
This occurred nearly in 2019 and was known as
Brexit.
Why did the UK decide to take this step?
Since World War II the period has been marked as
a growing period economically and in cultural
globalization. Moreover, increasing political
integration under the auspices of the European
Union was a main issue as well. Brexit proves to be
a departure from such a trend, and this was one of
the many reasons for UK’s departure from
European Union. UK leaving the EU means leaving
the EU’s supranational political institutions and
will lead to the erection of new barriers to the
exchange of goods, services, and people with the
remaining 27 member states. Other EU countries
are also likely to suffer economically from Brexit,
but their estimated losses are much smaller than
those faced by the United Kingdom. Who voted for
Brexit and why was the referendum held? Support
for Brexit came from less-educated, older, very
little successful and more socially conservative
voters who oppose immigration and feel left
behind by modern life. Leaving the EU is not in the
economic interest of most of these left-behind
voters. However, there is currently insufficient
evidence to determine whether the leave vote was
primarily driven by national identity and the
desire to “take back control” from the EU, or by
voters scapegoating the EU for their economic and
social struggles [2].
Relationship between United Kingdom and
European union after Brexit
After the formal notice from UK to the EU
negotiations started and it lasted slight over 2
years span. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty allows
the negotiations on a withdrawal to last for at most
two years. After that period the withdrawal
requesting country that is UK in this case
automatically ceases from being a member of the
European Union. The withdrawal agreement
would include Britain’s outstanding financial
liabilities to the EU, the future status of citizens of
both countries living cross borders and the
framework for future UK
–
EU relations; but will not
finalize the details of any new relationship
(European Council 2017). There are 3 options for
them at this stage. First, UK could remain part of
the EU’s single market by joining Norway, Iceland
and Liechtenstein in what is called European
Economic Area (EEA). The next option was the EU
and UK signing a free trade agreement to govern
their trade and economic relations. The other
option was, if no alternative agreement is reached,
the UK and EU would trade under the most-favored
nation terms available to all World Trade
Organization members. Instead of having Tailor
made free trade agreement, the UK could also seek
to form a customs union with European union like
Turkey had done. “The agreement also includes
level playing field provisions designed to ensure
that neither side uses subsidies or changes in labor
or environmental standards to obtain an ‘unfair’
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competitive advantage. These provisions include
commitments not to weaken current labor and
environmental standards, as well as a novel
rebalancing mechanism that allows for retaliatory
tariffs or suspension of parts of the TCA if future
divergence in standards affects trade and
investment between the two sides (Lydgate et al.
2021).
However,
the
dispute
resolution
mechanisms established to enforce these
commitments are yet to be tested.[3]”
Prices of the goods for consumer and the
border prices after Brexit
The lowering prices of sterling after the leave vote
by United Kingdom has been cited in many papers
as a quasi-experimental shock to estimate the price
effects of exchange rates and movements of goods.
There was a significant depreciation on the United
Kingdom side and the consumer prices were very
high after the Brexit. Consequently, the medium-
to-long-run price effects of the Brexit depreciation
are well approximated by treating the UK as a
small, neoclassical economy. The UK’s CPI
(Consumer Price Index) raised significantly from
0.5% to a high of 3.1% after the referendum. The
article that we read also had some significant
figures about other trades and prices and the
effects of Brexit on the trade between the two
countries and other countries that were included
in the European Union that are discussed further
in this paper in results and discussions. These
findings imply that the Brexit depreciation led to a
substantial increase in UK consumer prices. Figure
1 represents the data of rate inflation and how the
wages were growing in real life. [4]
Figure1
What happened to the labor market and how was it affected?
The overall impact on the labor market because of the Brexit was affected and the migration flows also
played a role in it. The staff shortage post Brexit put UK market in tight and tough position creating more
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pressure for the UK labor market. Jim Hillage a special content writer also said that the Brexit might affect
the employment throughout the world and might create a chaos. He cites three main areas to monitor as
the UK progresses through this uncharted territory. These areas are higher education; skills supply and
demand; and health and safety policy.[5] Transport and warehousing had the worst effects due to the
Brexit. Brexit has led to a shortfall of 330,000 people in the UK labor force, mostly in the low-skilled
economy, a report by leading researchers has found.[6] The leaving of UK from EU led to an increase in
immigration from non-EU countries bout that was not up to the point to compensate for the loss of
workers that is skilled workers from the neighboring countries.
Figure 2
DISCUSSIONS
The first thing that comes to our minds when we
hear the word Brexit is United Kingdom and its
relationship with the European Union. On the
contrary, European Union has not only been the
center stage for Brexit but for so many other
countries as it has been one of the largest and
powerful economies where it has been a member
with a global stronghold or we can say an ally to
World Trade Organization (WTO), who is
responsible for regulations of international trades
between two countries. The EU is a staunch
supporter of free trade and is committed to an
open, rules-based system of international trade.
The EU's trade policy strives to advance the
interests of its member states and to ensure that
EU enterprises operate on an even playing field in
the international market. The EU also aims to
encourage environmental protection, human
rights, and sustainable development through its
trade policy. The emphasis on regional integration
in EU trade policy is one of its main characteristics.
Within its borders, the EU has established a single
market that permits unrestricted trade in
products, services, funding, and individuals. We all
know that, recently a few years back, the UK &
European Union parted ways with each other
when the UK decided to leave the European Union
after their deeply rooted and well-established 45
yearlong serving membership for international
trade. The balance between national sovereignty
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and supranational decision-making was one of the
main points of debate. The UK has long been leery
of handing over too much influence on Brussels
and has worked to keep more of its own affairs
under control. When the UK had a referendum on
whether to leave the EU in 2016, this tension
between the UK and the EU reached a breaking
point. A departure deal was negotiated between
the UK and the EU in November 2018 after
numerous rounds of discussions, and both the EU
and UK Parliament subsequently accepted it. The
conditions of the UK's exit from the EU were
outlined in this agreement, together with the
financial settlement, citizen rights, and border
arrangements for Northern Ireland. A variety of
topics are covered under the trade and
cooperation agreement, such as fisheries, law
enforcement, and judicial collaboration.
Additionally, it contains clauses on commitments
to level playing fields, which aim to ensure fair
competition between the UK and the EU, and on
governance arrangements, which will oversee the
agreement's execution. Overall, over the years,
there has been both cooperation and conflict in the
UK and EU relationship (Amadeo, 2022). The
nature of this partnership has been profoundly
altered by the UK's exit from the EU, and the trade
and cooperation agreement marks the beginning
of a new chapter, also to add along the lines, not
just the relationship and the nature of trade has
changed but it has touched too many sensitive
points of trading goods, different business units
which
trade
internationally
under
EU,
stakeholders, common man and much more if we
look into the grand scheme of things. Before Brexit,
the single market and customs union laws of the
EU governed trade ties between the European
Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK). As a
result, there were no restrictions on the exchange
of commodities between the two parties and
companies were free to operate internationally.
The EU and the UK were each other's greatest
trading partners, with the UK being the EU's top
trading partner. In 2019, the UK's overall trade in
goods and services with the EU was 47%, while the
EU's total trade with the UK was 16%. There were
difficulties in the trading relationship between the
EU and the UK, nevertheless. One of the key
problems was that the EU's intention to preserve a
fair playing field for firms within the single market
conflicted with the UK's desire to retain more
control over its own laws and standards. As a
result, there were conflicts over things like state
funding, environmental regulations, and food
safety. Additionally, the EU and the UK held
opposing views on trade policy in general. After
Brexit, the UK under Prime Minister Theresa May
sought to pursue a more independent trade policy,
in contrast to the EU, which was a strong supporter
of free trade and multilateralism. This caused some
EU member states to worry that the UK would start
to compete with them based on tax regulations.
Despite these difficulties, the EU and the UK kept
cooperating to make sure that their trade
relationship ran smoothly.
The UK participated in the development of the EU's
trade policy as a member of its trade policy
committees. Additionally, the EU and the UK
collaborated on trade-related technical issues like
origin-related rules of origin and customs
procedures.
Overall, the EU and UK's commercial relationship
before Brexit was characterized by a combination
of collaboration and conflict. Even if there were
some basic disparities between the two, their
economies were closely connected, and
maintaining a close trading connection was in their
best interest.
Since Brexit, when the UK left the EU's single
market and customs union on January 1, 2021, the
trading relationship between the UK and the EU
has experienced substantial changes. Following
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Brexit, the trade between the UK and the EU is
shown in the following statistics:
1.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS)
reports that compared to December 2020, UK
exports of products to the EU decreased by 19.3%
in January 2021. Within the same time frame,
imports from the EU decreased by 22.1%
(Fibre2Fashion, 2023).
2.
UK exports to the EU decreased by 18.1% in
the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same
time in 2020. EU imports decreased by 27.6%.
3.
In the first quarter of 2021, the UK's trade
deficit with the EU grew and amounted to £17.4
billion which was the highest since the year of
2000.
4.
The changes to commerce between the UK
and the EU have had a particularly negative impact
on the food and beverage industry. The Food and
Drink Federation reports that compared to January
2020, food and beverage exports from the UK to
the EU decreased by 47% (Fibre2Fashion, 2023).
5.
In recent months, trade between the UK and
the EU has shown some signs of improvement. In
February 2021 compared to January 2021, UK
exports to the EU climbed by 8.6%, while EU
imports rose by 4.8%.
The COVID-19 outbreak has impacted trade
between the UK and the EU, disrupting supply
chains and lowering demand for products and
services, it is crucial to remember. But according to
the statistics, there has been a noticeable impact,
especially in the first half of 2021, on trade
between the UK and the EU (Fibre2Fashion, 2023).
Major Impacts caused on Goods Trade Sector after
Brexit:
•
Tariffs: Since the UK left the EU's single
market and customs union, many items moved
between the two organizations are now subject to
tariffs. As a result, some commodities now cost
more, and other companies have reduced or
stopped doing business with the EU. Businesses
have occasionally also incurred increased
administrative expenditure as a result of the new
regulations.
•
Non-tariff challenges: Trade between the EU
and the UK is currently hampered by non-tariff
barriers in addition to tariffs. This involves
documentation and customs inspections, which
can result in delays and raise costs for firms. New
regulatory obstacles like rules of origin
requirements and new product standards can also
make it more difficult for businesses to conduct
business.
•
Trade has decreased as a result of the
addition of tariffs and non-tariff barriers between
the EU and the UK. The UK's exports to the EU
decreased by 41% in January 2021 compared to
January 2020, while imports from the EU
decreased by 29%, according to figures from the
Office for National Statistics. There are also
worries that the reduction in trade may have a
longer-term impact because some companies may
have invested in new supply networks or switched
to suppliers outside of the EU (Fibre2Fashion,
2023).
•
Impacts by industry: The effects of Brexit on
trade have not been felt equally by all industries.
The new regulations have had a particularly
negative impact on some industries, such the food
and beverage sector, with some companies
reporting sharp drops in shipments to the EU.
Chemicals and pharmaceuticals are two other
industries that have fared less poorly.
In general, Brexit has had a considerable influence
on the UK-EU trade in products. Some industries
have been particularly impacted, and costs have
gone up and trade flows have decreased as a result
of the introduction of tariffs and non-tariff
barriers.
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RESULTS
On 1 May 2021 the TCA went fully into force and
the Withdrawal Agreement ratified by the EU and
UK parliaments allowed the UK to leave and ended
the transition period. The Trade and Cooperation
Agreement (TCA) allows all products originating
from the EU or UK to have access to each other's
markets without tariffs or quotas, if they adhere to
the rules of origin specified in the agreement. This
means that unless goods entering the EU from the
UK fulfill the rules of origin, they will be subject to
tariffs.
Although the trade agreement safeguards the
integrity of EU single Market and might be
intended to aid to build EU-UK cooperation, it has
several limitations.
•
Higher Costs for Trade: There is a significant
cost reduction due to avoidance of tariffs and
quotas, however the need for entry and exit
customs might eventually increase the cost of
trade.
•
Lack of mobility in the agreement creates
new barriers to movement of the workforce,
especially in the service sector, and makes
business travel difficult.
•
The grace periods and transitional periods
in several sectors create uncertainty and
precariousness.
•
The short time span between the trade
agreement publication and its enforcement gave
business little time to adjust and adapt to the new
policies.
The impact of Brexit has primarily impacted
international trade between EU and UK, and it is
evident from the data provided by UK treasury
indicates EU-UK trade volume fell sharply.
The impact of Brexit on cross-border trade
between the UK and the EU has been significant,
with changes to tariffs, customs procedures, and
regulatory alignment affecting businesses on both
sides of the border. Here are some of the key
results of the impact of Brexit on cross-border
trade:
1.
Trade flows have been affected: UK-EU
trade in goods has declined since Brexit, with
exports from the UK to the EU falling by 40% in
January 2021 compared to the same period in
2020, according to the UK Office for National
Statistics. Similarly, EU exports to the UK have also
declined, although not as sharply.
2.
Customs procedures have become more
complex: The introduction of customs declarations
and other paperwork has increased the
administrative burden on businesses, leading to
delays and increased costs. Some businesses have
also reported difficulties in accessing key markets
due to new trade barriers.
3.
Tariffs and non-tariff barriers have been
introduced: The Trade and Cooperation
Agreement between the UK and the EU has allowed
for tariff-free and quota-free trade in goods,
subject to rules of origin requirements. However,
some sectors, such as fisheries and financial
services, have been subject to new tariffs and non-
tariff barriers.
4.
Regulatory
divergence
has
created
challenges: The UK and the EU have diverged in
some areas of regulation, such as food safety and
product standards. This has led to new barriers to
trade, as businesses must now comply with
different regulations in each market.
5.
Businesses have had to adapt: Many
businesses have had to adjust their supply chains
and operations in response to the new trading
environment. Some have relocated to the EU to
maintain access to the single market, while others
have shifted their focus to non-EU markets.
According to data from the UK Treasury's Office for
Budget Responsibility in 2021, there was a
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significant decline in the volume of trade in goods
between the UK and the EU after the Trade and
Cooperation Agreement (TCA) came into effect,
and the levels remain lower than they were before
Brexit and the pandemic in 2019. In January 2021,
there was a 45% drop in UK goods exports to the
EU and a 30% drop in imports from the EU, which
was even greater than the fall experienced at the
start of the pandemic. While global goods trade
also experienced a sharp decline at the beginning
of the pandemic, it had recovered to 7% below the
2019 average level by August, whereas the total
goods trade between the UK and the EU remained
down by 15%. Furthermore, the outlook suggests
that UK trade has been affected even before the
terms of trade with the EU change, possibly due to
anticipation effects and uncertainty caused by the
UK referendum.
Taking a closer look at the trends in recent times.
The fall in trade volume after the transition period
ended in 2020 has recovered but remains lower
than levels compared to 2019 which was 170
billion in comparison to 158 billion in 2020.
Graph from published study, confirm although the
imports from EU to UK fell after transition period,
they recovered to pre pandemic levels.
Overall, the impact of Brexit on cross-border trade
between the UK and the EU has been significant,
with businesses facing new challenges and
uncertainties in their trading relationships. The
long-term effects of Brexit on trade between the
UK and the EU will depend on a variety of factors,
including the ongoing implementation of the Trade
and
Cooperation
Agreement
and
future
developments in regulatory alignment.
CONCLUSION
Brexit has been a significant political and economic
development with wide-ranging repercussions.
One of the major outcomes has been the impact on
cross-border trade in Europe and the United
Kingdom. Because of the UK's withdrawal from the
EU, commerce between the two areas has changed
dramatically, including the imposition of tariffs
and other trade restrictions. To maintain trade
with EU member states, businesses must adjust to
the new trading environment and abide by the new
laws and regulations. The hiring of customs
brokers and the purchase of new technology to
handle the resulting increased paperwork and
bureaucracy are just two of the steps that many
businesses have already taken to adapt to the new
trading environment.
A Brexit support fund, funding for customs
intermediaries, and advice and guidance on how to
comply with the new laws are just a few of the
measures the UK government has announced to
help businesses. These steps are necessary to both
support businesses as they adapt to the new
trading landscape and to maintain cross-border
trade as a key component of the UK economy.
There are still worries about how Brexit will affect
cross-border trade in the long run, despite these
precautions. The implementation of tariffs and
other trade restrictions may result in higher
consumer costs and decreased competitiveness for
UK businesses. The effect on the supply chain and
the possibility of border delays are additional
issues that raise concerns.
Concerns have also been raised regarding how
Brexit will affect the overall economy. The UK's
exit from the EU may result in less investment and
slower economic growth. The effect on
employment and living standards may be
significant. In order to reduce the impact of Brexit
on cross-border trade, it is crucial for the UK
government to keep supporting businesses and to
cooperate with the EU. The UK government must
make sure the new laws are strictly enacted and
that businesses have access to the necessary tools
to comply. Additionally, it's critical for businesses
to keep looking into new markets and broaden
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their clientele. By doing so, they will be less
dependent on EU members and the effects of Brexit
on their business will be lessened.
Overall, Brexit has significantly impacted cross-
border trade in Europe and the UK. For companies
to carry on doing business with EU member states,
it is imperative that they adapt to the new trading
environment and follow the new rules and
regulations. To assist companies in adjusting to the
new trading environment, the UK government
must continue to support businesses. Although the
long-term effects of Brexit on cross-border trade
are still uncertain, it is obvious that they will be
substantial. To lessen the effects of Brexit on
international trade and make sure that businesses
can still access the EU market, the UK government
must work closely with the EU. But it is impossible
to ignore how Brexit will affect both the UK's
relationship with the EU and the future of the EU
more broadly. Continually pursuing global trade
liberalization requires cooperation between
nations in order to facilitate cross-border trade.
Despite the difficulties and unpredict abilities,
businesses have the chance to investigate new
markets and broaden their clientele.
In the end, how Brexit affects cross-border trade
will depend on how well businesses and
governments adapt to the new trading
environment and how they collaborate to address
the difficulties and seize the opportunities brought
about by this significant event.
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