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PUBLISHED DATE: - 04-11-2024
DOI: -
https://doi.org/10.37547/tajssei/Volume06Issue11-05
PAGE NO.: - 45-58
THE TREND IN CORRUPTION, CRUDE OIL
THEFT, AND NATIONAL SECURITY: A CASE
STUDY OF NIGERIA
Patrick G. Onogwu
PhD Student City University, Cambodia
Olanrewaju Lawal
Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Faculty of Social Sciences,
University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
INTRODUCTION
Over the past decade, Nigeria has faced a complex
set of challenges, with corruption, crude oil theft,
and national security issues being at the forefront.
These problems have created a vicious cycle,
where each issue exacerbates the other, leading to
significant economic, political, and social
repercussions. Corruption has remained deeply
entrenched in various sectors, influencing
governance, policy implementation, and resource
allocation. Meanwhile, crude oil theft, which
directly undermines Nigeria’s primary source of
revenue, has emerged as a major economic threat,
costing the nation billions of dollars annually
(Ozogu et al., 2023). This illicit activity has not only
depleted vital national resources but also fuelled
criminal networks, heightened insecurity, and
hindered development.
Nigeria's national security situation has been
further aggravated by these issues. Corruption
within security agencies has weakened efforts to
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Abstract
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combat insurgency, terrorism, and organised
crime, while the proceeds of crude oil theft have
funded illegal armed groups, intensifying
instability in key regions like the Niger Delta
(Olujobi et al., 2022). These security challenges
have, in turn, discouraged foreign investment and
hindered sustainable development efforts.
Understanding how corruption and crude oil theft
are intertwined with national security is therefore
critical to developing effective solutions.
Several studies have studied different aspects of
corruption. For instance, Kalinowski (2016)
explored the complexities of corruption,
particularly its challenges in democracies like
South Korea. While corruption remains a global
barrier to good governance, the study emphasizes
the need for international comparisons and
detailed case studies to fully understand
corruption trends. Despite South Korea's legal
reforms and active civil society, corruption
persists due to its authoritarian past and the
dominance of large conglomerates (chaebols).
Gupta et al. (2018)) analyse Nepal's corruption
trends, noting regional disparities and the
influence of socio-demographic factors, while
highlighting the need for targeted anti-corruption
strategies. Uberti (2022) demonstrates that
corruption negatively impacts economic growth,
especially in democracies where decentralized
corruption is more harmful than in autocracies.
The study advocates for anti-corruption efforts in
young democracies, emphasising the uniformly
detrimental effects of corruption. Lawal (2021)
similarly examines corruption's negative impact
on political stability and economic growth in
Nigeria, advocating for institutional reforms to
enhance governance. Dalton and Esarey (2022)
critique the inconsistencies in corruption
indicators, introducing a new measure to improve
reliability.
Romsom (2022) offers an in-depth exploration of
global oil theft and fraud, emphasizing the severe
and far-reaching impacts of these crimes. The
study estimates that oil theft is a global issue
valued at US$133 billion annually, representing 5-
7% of the global crude oil and petroleum fuels
market. While the financial losses are significant,
the study reveals that the consequences of oil theft
extend beyond economic damage. The research
highlights a stark reduction in government tax
revenues in 30 developing countries affected by oil
theft, indicating a significant loss in potential funds
for public services and infrastructure. Oil theft is
often underestimated compared to other major
crimes like human trafficking, drug trade, and
terrorism.
However, Romsom (2022) argues that it should
not be trivialized, as it often develops into
organized crime, intertwining with other criminal
activities if not properly addressed. The study
notes that current efforts to combat oil theft are
hindered by a lack of data on the volume of stolen
oil, methods of transportation, and illicit
transactions. The blending of legal operations with
illegal activities further complicates efforts to
combat this crime. Romsom (2022) calls for
targeted action against transnational crime
syndicates, emphasising the need for better data
collection, disruption of organized crime, and
stronger international cooperation to effectively
address oil theft.
Gillies (2020) investigates corruption during
Africa's oil boom from 2005 to 2014, highlighting
the strategies employed by public and private
actors to capture resource rents. Drawing from
court cases and investigative reports, Gillies
examines 60 controversies across 17 African
countries, showing how rising oil prices
incentivized corrupt practices, especially in
‘rentier states’ where political power is closely t
ied
to resource wealth. The study reveals that both
government officials and private companies
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exploited oil sector deals, enriching inner circles
and securing political power. Additionally, a wider
array of private sector actors, including fixers and
offshore companies, became involved in
corruption cases, reflecting the increasingly
complex nature of the oil industry. Gillies (2020)
provides valuable insights into evolving
corruption trends and recommends that future
anti-corruption efforts focus on these emerging
actors and methods to effectively address
corruption in the oil sector.
Wilcox et al. (2022) examine the impact of crude
oil pipeline vandalism on human security in Rivers
State, focusing on the Port Harcourt Refining
Company Limited. Using triangulation methods,
the study found a strong link between pipeline
vandalism and human security issues such as
revenue loss, price hikes, and power failures.
Factors like government corruption, low
productivity, and weak administrative structures
contribute to this cycle, leading to aggressive
actions such as vandalism. The study recommends
enhanced collaboration between oil companies
and security agencies, including the recruitment of
local security personnel to monitor pipelines.
Additionally,
the
installation
of
deeper
underground pipelines with camera chips is
suggested to reduce vandalism. Wilcox et al.
(2022) also advocate for empowering local
communities to manage oil derivation funds, which
could reduce poverty and foster a sense of
ownership over regional resources.
Ezirim (2018) delves into the effects of oil
discovery in Nigeria, beginning in 1956, and its
subsequent challenges in managing oil rents and
corporate security. The study highlights how the
advent of democracy in 1999 and substantial oil
revenues created a rentier approach that excluded
much of the population, leading to public
frustration and national security threats. Using
frustration-aggression theory, the study links the
exclusion of citizens from oil wealth to illegal
activities such as oil bunkering and pipeline
vandalization. Ezirim (2018) calls for reforms in
the governance of oil resources to ensure equitable
distribution and reduce security threats.
Lawal and Roland (2019) analysed oil spills in the
Niger Delta from 2006 to 2016, using trend
analysis and spatial statistics. They identify 6,487
oil spills, with significant spatial clustering in
Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers States, and a growing
frequency of incidents over time. The study
underscores the need for enhanced monitoring
and risk management in hot spot areas to mitigate
environmental and socio-economic impacts.
Wekpe et al. (2024) focus on forecasting future oil
spill incidents in the Niger Delta using Space-Time
Pattern Mining (STPM) tools. Their analysis
identifies significant hotspots in Rivers, Bayelsa,
and Delta States, and demonstrates the
effectiveness of predictive models in guiding
resource deployment for spill management. The
study concludes that predictive modelling can
improve response strategies and reduce the
environmental damage caused by oil spills.
Ozogu et al. (2023) conducted an in-depth
investigation into the illegal bunkering of crude oil
in the Niger Delta, a practice that involves the theft
of crude oil and its derivatives through various
unauthorized means without the consent of the
Federal Government. One of the most alarming
findings of the study was the discovery that Nigeria
loses an estimated ₦2.184 trillion annually due to
illegal bunkering activities. This substantial loss of
revenue is compounded by the socio-economic
consequences faced by the affected communities.
The study noted an increase in poverty levels, a
surge in criminal activities involving the
acquisition of weapons, and a disturbing rise in
school dropouts, particularly among students and
pupils in secondary and primary schools. These
issues underscore the far-reaching implications of
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illegal bunkering beyond just environmental
degradation.
In response to these findings, Ozogu et al. (2023)
proposed several potential solutions to address
the problem of illegal bunkering. They emphasized
the need for collaborative efforts between
individuals, government authorities, and the
petroleum companies operating in Nigeria to
control and ultimately eradicate this illegal
activity. The study calls for a concerted effort to
stop the theft of crude oil, recognizing it as not only
an economic crime but a significant social and
environmental threat as well.
The literature on national and human security
emphasises the need for a broader understanding
of security that goes beyond traditional military
concerns. Chandra and Bhonsle (2015) argue for a
holistic approach to national security, suggesting
that it should encompass not only military power
but also factors like leadership, economic stability,
and environmental health. They propose the
creation of a national security index that would
measure a country’s overall stability by integrating
these various dimensions, highlighting the
interconnectedness of these factors in maintaining
a secure nation.
In a similar vein, Nnam et al. (2020) explore the
impact of Boko Haram on human security in
Nigeria, particularly how the group’s activities
have led to widespread panic and disruption of key
sectors such as education and food security. Their
analysis of secondary data reveals the severe
implications of Boko Haram’s insurgency on
national cohesion. They recommend enhancing the
trust between security forces and local
communities as a crucial step in addressing this
security threat and restoring stability in affected
areas.
Continuing the focus on Nigeria, Amao (2023)
examines the ongoing threat posed by Boko Haram
in the Lake Chad region, despite official claims of
the group’s defeat. He attributes Nigeria’s
difficulties in eradicating Boko Haram to the
influence of ISAWP (Islamic State West Africa
Province) and the limitations of the Nigerian
military. Amao calls for more decisive actions and
strategies to effectively counter this persistent
threat and ensure long-term peace in the region.
Afolabi et al. (2022) shift the focus to Nigeria's
internal security challenges, such as the conflict
between farmers and herders. They argue that
resolving such conflicts requires good governance,
better resources for security agencies, and greater
societal collaboration. Addressing these internal
threats is vital for ensuring long-term stability and
peace, as these conflicts undermine national
security and social cohesion. Aleyomi and Nwagwu
(2023) add to the discussion by highlighting the
systemic failures in Nigeria’s
security landscape.
They propose a sustainable security model that
integrates human and national security, stressing
the importance of rebuilding trust between the
government and its citizens. This trust is seen as
key to improving intelligence gathering and the
effectiveness of security operations, which are
crucial in addressing both traditional and non-
traditional security threats.
Studies on corruption, oil theft, and national
security provide valuable insights into global and
regional trends, particularly in developing nations.
However, there are significant gaps in existing
research. Many studies focus on either corruption
or oil theft in isolation, but few provide a
comprehensive, integrated analysis of how these
two phenomena interact to affect national security.
For instance, while Kalinowski (2016) examines
the complexities of corruption in South Korea and
Gupta et al. (2018) explores regional disparities in
Nepal’s corruption trends, these studies do not
address
the
interconnectedness
between
corruption and illicit activities like oil theft,
especially in resource-rich nations like Nigeria.
Additionally, Uberti (2022) and Lawal (2021)
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discuss corruption’s negative impact on political
stability and economic growth, yet they do not
specifically examine how corruption facilitates
organized crimes like oil theft, which further
undermines national security. Similarly, while
Gillies
(2020) highlights corruption during Africa’s
oil boom and its ties to resource wealth, the study
does not delve deeply into the broader security
implications of oil-related corruption and theft.
The gap also extends to data collection and
analytical methods. Romsom (2022) emphasises
the need for better data on oil theft, particularly in
terms of volume, transportation methods, and
illicit transactions. This suggests that current
efforts to address these issues are hampered by
insufficient data, making it difficult to develop
effective solutions. Furthermore, while predictive
models for oil spills (Wekpe et al., 2024) show
promise in managing environmental impacts,
similar tools have not been applied to forecasting
or preventing corruption-related oil theft. This
study aims to provide a data-driven analysis of
these interrelated trends in Nigeria from 2013 to
2023. Using quantitative, the research will
examine how corruption has evolved, the scale and
impact of crude oil theft, and the state of national
security over the past decade. By examining these
trends, the study will also shed light on past and
current challenges but also to pave the way for
more effective governance and security
frameworks in the future.
DATA AND METHODS
This study employed a longitudinal research
design, which is a method of study where data is
collected from the same subjects repeatedly over
an extended period (Mohajan, 2020). This
approach is particularly useful for observing
changes, trends, and developments within a
particular
phenomenon,
population,
or
environment over time. The study area for this
study is Nigeria, a West African nation that is one
of the largest oil producers in the world and a
significant player in the global energy market
(Adedayo et al., 2021). Nigeria's oil industry,
concentrated in the Niger Delta region which is
comprised of nine states
—
Abia, Akwa Ibom,
Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Imo, Ondo, and
Rivers
—
and rich in crude oil reserves and has
been the hub of the nation's oil exploration and
production activities since the 1950s (Edo et al.,
2024).
Nigeria is a federal republic comprising 36 states
and a Federal Capital Territory, with Abuja as its
capital. The executive branch is led by the
President, who serves as both the head of state and
head of the federal government (Obiadi & Onochie,
2018). Nigeria's economy is the largest in Africa,
ranking 31st globally by nominal GDP and 30th by
purchasing power parity (PPP) (Isibor et al., 2022).
In 2022, its GDP (PPP) per capita was $9,148,
which is lower than that of South Africa, Egypt, or
Morocco, but slightly higher than Ghana and Ivory
Coast (Ojoare, 2023). Nigeria is a key player in
Africa, particularly in energy, financial markets,
pharmaceuticals, and entertainment. Beyond oil,
remittances from Nigerians abroad are the second-
largest source of foreign exchange earnings
(Ayuba, 2023).
Nigeria's financial services sector is highly
developed, featuring a mix of local and
international
banks,
asset
management
companies, brokerage firms, insurance companies,
private equity funds, and investment banks
(Oshikoya & Durosinmi-Etti, 2019). The country
has a lower- middle-income economy with
abundant natural resources, including coal,
bauxite, tantalite, gold, tin, iron ore, limestone,
niobium, lead, and zinc. Despite these vast
resources, Nigeria's mining industry remains
underdeveloped (Ayuk et al., 2020).
Nigeria is the world's 15th largest oil producer, the
6th largest exporter, and holds the 9th largest
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proven oil reserves (Adedara & Adetifa, 2022). Oil
is a major driver of the Nigerian economy,
contributing about 80% of government revenue.
Nigeria also has significant natural gas reserves,
which are seen as key to unlocking economic
growth along the Niger River. However, the
country loses an estimated $2.5 billion annually to
gas flaring and over 120,000 barrels of oil per day
to crude theft in the Niger Delta, leading to conflict
and production disruptions. The Niger Delta Basin,
in the south-south region, is Nigeria's most
productive oil area, containing 78 of the country's
159 oil fields (Olade, 2021). Despite these
resources, petroleum was Nigeria's main import
until 2021, accounting for 24% of imports.
However, challenges like oil theft have prompted
international oil companies to consider divesting
their Nigerian assets.
DATA
Secondary data used for this study was sourced
from data repositories. The nature of the data for
this study encompassed several quantitative
metrics related to national security, crude oil theft
and corruption. Specifically, the data will include
crude oil theft, violent events and fatalities, oil spill
statistics, and political corruption index. National
security data was obtained from databases such as
the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
(ACLED). For oil spill data, the study relied on
information from the National Oil Spill Detection
and Response Agency (NOSDRA) while the data on
corruption was a political corruption index
sourced from the World Bank database.
METHODS
Data on violent events and fatalities, political
corruption index, and crude oil theft was collated,
sorted and cleaned using R to ensure its alignment
with the aim of this study. Moreso, descriptive data
analysis was utilised in visualising trends in
corruption, crude oil theft and national security
over the study period. Results were visualised
using a line graph generated from Excel.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Figure 1 showcases the trend in the political
corruption index in Nigeria from 2013 to 2023.
Results show that from 2013 to 2015, the political
corruption index was at its peak (0.949 to 0.947).
Afterwards, there was a noticeable decline in the
political corruption index in 2016 with a recorded
index of 0.928 which continued in 2017 and 2018
with 0.91 and 0.909 respectively. However, there
was a gradual increase in the index from 2019
(0.925) to 2023 (0.928). Overall, there has been a
decreasing trend in corruption (measured as
political corruption index) in Nigeria from 2013 to
2023.
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Figure 1. Trend in political corruption index in Nigeria from 2013 to 2023
Authors’ Analysis 2024
Figure 2. shows the trend in crude oil theft in
Nigeria from 2013 to 2023 revealing significant
fluctuations over the decade, reflecting a dynamic
situation with varying levels of illicit activity. In
2013, the number of reported crude oil theft events
was relatively high at 1,574. The following year,
2014, saw a slight increase to 1,635 events,
indicating a persistently high level of theft. A
notable decrease occurred in 2015, with events
dropping to 1,019. This reduction might be
attributed to enhanced government interventions
or changes in the dynamics of the illicit oil market.
However, the level remained significantly high
compared to the subsequent years.
In 2016, crude oil theft declined further to 762
events, marking a significant drop. This decrease
could be linked to intensified security measures,
military operations, or policy changes aimed at
reducing theft. The downward trend continued
into 2017, with theft events falling to 669. In 2018,
there was a slight rise to 800 events. This uptick
could reflect a resurgence in theft activities.
The trend fluctuated again in 2019 with an
increase to 926 events while 2020 saw a significant
drop to 605 events. This decrease could be
associated with disruptions caused by the COVID-
19 pandemic, which might have affected both the
operations of theft networks and enforcement
actions. Crude oil theft increased in 2021 to 778
events, possibly as the impact of the pandemic
began to wane and activities resumed or
intensified. The year 2022 marked a substantial
rise to 1,209 events, indicating a resurgence in
theft activities. However, in 2023, the number of
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.9
0.89
0.88
2 01 3 20 14 20 15 2 01 6 2 017 20 18 20 19 20 20 2 021 2 02 2 20 23
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theft events peaked at 1,550, the highest recorded over the decade.
Figure 2. Yearly trend in crude oil theft in Nigeria
Authors’ Analysis 2024
Figure 3 The results show significant fluctuations
in violent events and fatalities in Nigeria from
2013 to 2023, reflecting periods of instability and
change. Initially, from 2013 to 2016, the number of
violent events remained relatively stable, with a
noticeable dip in 2016, suggesting a period of
reduced conflict or improved security measures.
However, from 2017 onwards, the number of
events began increasing again, peaking at 866 in
2019. This rise could indicate a resurgence in
conflict, political unrest, or an intensification of
security challenges.
The sharp increase in 2020, with 1,503 events,
coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, likely
exacerbating existing tensions. The upward trend
continued through 2021 and peaked in 2022 with
2,234 events, possibly reflecting worsening
security conditions or a surge in criminal activities
such as banditry and insurgency. Although there
was a slight decline in 2023, the level of violence
remained significantly higher than in earlier years.
Fatalities followed a similar pattern, with a sharp
increase from 2,126 in 2013 to 7,006 in 2014,
before slightly declining to 6,995 in 2015. This
spike in fatalities suggests that the violent events
during these years were particularly lethal, with
2014 standing out as an exceptionally deadly year,
likely due to the peak of the Boko Haram
insurgency. Afterwards, fatalities dropped
significantly in 2016 to 2,212, followed by a
gradual rise through 2019. The drop in 2016 could
reflect a period of relative calm or successful
military interventions. However, fatalities rose
again in 2020 and peaked in 2021 at 4,117, driven
by heightened instability, conflicts between
herders and farmers, and the activities of criminal
groups. In 2022, the number of fatalities remained
high at 3,990 but slightly lower than in the
previous year, with a further decline in 2023 to
2,965. This reduction may suggest partial
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200
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improvements in security or a decrease in the
lethality of violent events compared to earlier
years.
The extremely high fatalities in 2014 and 2015,
compared to the number of events, indicate that
violent incidents were particularly deadly during
this period. This aligns with the Boko Haram
insurgency, which was marked by mass casualties.
Additionally, the increase in both events and
fatalities during the COVID-19 pandemic suggests
that the pandemic may have exacerbated existing
tensions, possibly due to economic hardship,
governance challenges, and disrupted security
operations. The decline in both events and
fatalities in 2023 points to potential improvements
in security or the success of military and
governmental interventions, though the overall
situation remains unstable. The data show cyclical
patterns of violence, with notable spikes in 2014,
2021, and 2022. While the number of events and
fatalities fluctuates, there is no sustained long-
term reduction, underscoring the persistent
security challenges in Nigeria over the past decade.
Figure 3. Trend in Violent events and fatalities from 2013 to 2023
Authors’ Analysis 2024
The findings on the political corruption index in
Nigeria from 2013 to 2023 reveal a complex
relationship between corruption trends and
national security issues, particularly to crude oil
theft. From 2013 to 2015, when corruption was at
its peak, crude oil theft was likely exacerbated by
the pervasive corruption of that period. High levels
of corruption often result in weakened law
enforcement, inadequate security measures, and
collusion between officials and criminal groups,
facilitating illicit activities such as oil theft. This
suggests that the peak period might have been
marked by increased theft due to the lack of
effective oversight and security.
Following this peak, there was a noticeable decline
in the corruption index from 2016 to 2018, which
could indicate that some anti-corruption measures
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
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or reforms were implemented. This period of
relative improvement might have been associated
with efforts to strengthen security and regulatory
frameworks, potentially leading to a temporary
reduction in crude oil theft. However, the
effectiveness of these measures in curbing theft
would require further analysis to understand their
impact fully.
Despite this decline, the corruption index began to
rise again from 2019 to 2023, suggesting a
resurgence of corrupt practices. This recent
increase could have significant repercussions for
national security as it may contribute to the
erosion of institutional integrity and effectiveness.
As corruption rises, it can facilitate the
continuation of oil theft by undermining anti-theft
measures, enabling access to restricted areas, and
falsifying records. These activities not only
threaten the security of the oil sector but also
contribute to broader national security challenges.
The resurgence of corruption poses serious threats
to national security by contributing to instability
and funding for illegal activities, including
organized crime and militant groups. The
economic implications are equally severe, as crude
oil theft results in substantial financial losses for
Nigeria. The economic instability caused by both
theft and high corruption levels can reduce
investments, hinder economic growth, and
exacerbate poverty, creating conditions that
further strain national security through social
unrest.
Addressing these issues requires robust
governance reforms and effective anti-corruption
strategies. Improving transparency, strengthening
institutions,
and
enhancing
accountability
mechanisms are crucial for combating both
corruption and crude oil theft. Investments in
security infrastructure, regulatory frameworks,
and collaboration between government agencies
and civil society are essential to tackle these
intertwined challenges. Effective governance is not
only about improving oversight but also about
ensuring the stability and security of the nation.
The observed trends in political corruption align
with the broader literature on the impacts of
corruption. Studies by Kalinowski (2016) and
Gupta et al. (2018) highlight the evolving nature of
corruption and its complex effects on governance
and security, which supports the findings of
fluctuating corruption levels in Nigeria. Similarly,
Uberti’s (2022) research on corruption’s negative
impact on economic growth underscores the
importance of addressing corruption to ensure
national security. The interplay between
corruption, economic instability, and security
threats highlights the urgent need for
comprehensive reforms to address both
governance and security challenges effectively.
The analysis of crude oil theft trends in Nigeria
from 2013 to 2023 reveals a complex and evolving
issue that has undergone significant fluctuations
over the past decade. The year 2013 marked a high
point in theft rates, highlighting the persistent
nature of the problem. This period of elevated theft
was followed by an increase in incidents in 2014,
suggesting that the underlying issues driving oil
theft were not being effectively addressed.
However, 2015 saw a notable decrease in theft
rates. This decline may have been influenced by
targeted government interventions or shifts in the
illegal market dynamics, which could have
temporarily disrupted theft networks or reduced
their effectiveness.
The trend of decreased theft continued into 2016
and 2017, potentially reflecting the impact of
intensified security measures or changes in policy
aimed at combating oil theft. The government’s
increased efforts to secure oil infrastructure and
enforce regulations may have played a role in
reducing theft incidents during these years.
Nevertheless, the slight increase in theft rates in
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2018 indicates that the reduction was not entirely
sustainable. This resurgence could be attributed to
a weakening of enforcement efforts, the adaptation
of new strategies by thieves, or both. The
adaptability of theft networks to evolving security
measures suggests that while some progress was
made, the issue remains fluid and challenging to
control.
The subsequent years show considerable
variability in theft rates, illustrating the dynamic
nature of the problem. The COVID-19 pandemic in
2020 introduced new variables into the equation,
significantly disrupting both the operations of theft
networks and the effectiveness of enforcement
measures. The pandemic’s impact led to a
significant drop in theft incidents, possibly due to
reduced economic activities and mobility
restrictions that hindered the operations of theft
networks. However, as the pandemic's influence
waned and restrictions were lifted, theft rates
began to rise again in 2021 and reached a dramatic
peak in 2023. This peak underscores the ongoing
and evolving challenges in addressing crude oil
theft, highlighting that the problem persists
despite previous efforts and interventions.
These findings align with Romsom’s (2022)
analysis, which emphasizes the severe global
impact of oil theft, including significant financial
losses and disruptions in government revenues.
Romsom (2022) argues that oil theft is a
sophisticated and evolving issue that intersects
with organized crime, exacerbating broader
criminal activities. This perspective resonates with
the observed fluctuating trends in Nigeria,
suggesting that oil theft is not only a persistent
issue but also one that adapts to changing
circumstances and enforcement efforts.
Furthermore, Gillies (2020) provides a broader
context by examining the corruption associated
with oil booms, particularly in Africa. Gillies
highlights how periods of high oil prices are often
accompanied by increased corruption, as various
actors exploit the lucrative opportunities
presented by the oil sector. This pattern of
corruption during oil booms mirrors the situation
in Nigeria, where the theft of crude oil is intricately
linked to corrupt practices and the involvement of
multiple stakeholders. The corruption described
by Gillies reflects the complex landscape of crude
oil theft in Nigeria, where economic incentives and
weak governance contribute to the persistence of
the problem.
The analysis of detrended yearly event counts and
fatalities from 2013 to 2023 reveals significant
fluctuations in violence and fatalities, offering a
clearer picture by removing overall trends and
seasonal effects. In 2013, both event counts and
fatalities were within expected levels, suggesting a
period of relative stability. However, 2014 marked
a dramatic increase in both metrics, indicating an
exceptionally high level of violence. This spike
aligns with other studies, which identified 2014 as
a peak period of violence in Nigeria, largely driven
by intensified Boko Haram activities and
associated insurgent actions (Nnam et al., 2020).
Despite a slight decrease in event counts in 2015,
fatalities remained high, reflecting persistent
violence beyond expected levels. This observation
is consistent with Amao (2023), who noted that
violence continued to be significant due to
unresolved insurgency issues and military
inadequacies, even though the number of incidents
varied. In 2016, a significant drop in both events
counts and fatalities suggests a period of reduced
violence. This reduction aligns with Afolabi et al.
(2022), who highlighted brief periods of calm
amidst ongoing security challenges, demonstrating
that improvements can occur but may not be
sustained.
The years 2017 and 2018 saw moderate increases
in event counts and fatalities, indicating a
resurgence in violence, though not reaching the
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extremes observed in 2014 and 2015. This trend
corresponds with the findings of Aleyomi and
Nwagwu (2023), who emphasized the need for a
more strategic and inclusive approach to security
management. The peak in both metrics in 2021
reflects an exceptionally high level of violence,
consistent with reports of worsening security
conditions and increasing fatalities. This aligns
with Oluyemi (2020) and Abiodun et al. (2020),
who highlighted the severe impact of militarized
responses and insufficient security reforms.
Recent years, specifically 2022 and 2023, show
slight decreases in both event counts and fatalities,
suggesting potential stabilization or improvement
in security conditions. However, the levels remain
elevated compared to earlier years in the decade.
This trend underscores the ongoing volatility and
aligns with Nnam et al. (2020), who stressed the
importance of sustained policy efforts and
community engagement for long-term security
improvements.
Overall, the detrended analysis highlights the
complex dynamics of violence and fatalities in
Nigeria, reflecting periods of severe instability and
relative calm. These findings emphasise the need
for targeted interventions during peak periods of
violence and are consistent with broader literature
that calls for comprehensive and strategic security
reforms. Addressing corruption, improving
military readiness, and fostering community trust
are crucial for navigating Nigeria's ongoing
security challenges.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, the analysis of trends in political
corruption, crude oil theft, and national security in
Nigeria over the past decade underscores the
intricate and interrelated nature of these issues.
The fluctuating patterns of corruption and oil theft
reveal a significant impact on national security,
with periods of heightened corruption correlating
with increased theft and security challenges. The
rise in corruption from 2019 to 2023 has
contributed to the erosion of institutional integrity,
undermining anti-theft measures and exacerbating
broader national security threats. Crude oil theft, a
persistent and evolving problem, has shown
variable trends, with notable peaks and declines
influenced by shifting enforcement measures,
economic conditions, and external factors such as
the COVID-19 pandemic.
The findings suggest that while some progress has
been made in addressing these issues through anti-
corruption reforms and security measures, the
persistence and adaptability of both corruption
and oil theft continue to pose significant
challenges. The complex relationship between
corruption and theft indicates that addressing
these problems requires more than temporary
solutions. Effective governance reforms, enhanced
transparency, and robust anti- corruption
strategies are essential to curbing both corruption
and crude oil theft. Additionally, comprehensive
security
measures
and
socio-economic
interventions are crucial for stabilizing national
security and mitigating the broader impacts on
economic growth and social stability.
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