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ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF INDIRECT TAXES ON THE FORMATION OF
BUDGET REVENUES IN MULTIFACTOR ECONOMETRIC MODELING
Abdunazarova Shahnoza Norqo’chqor qizi
– Teacher of Termiz State University
Abstract
:
The importance of indirect taxes in the formation of state budget revenues plays
a significant role. As a result of the reforms carried out in our country, it can be seen that today we
have made a step forward in all areas. Of course, this good news does not exclude news in the tax
field. This article describes in detail the factors influencing the effect of indirect taxes on state
budget revenues through multifactor econometric modeling.
In developed countries, indirect taxes are relatively less important in their tax structure. In
these countries, on average, indirect taxes make up less than 40 percent of total tax revenue. The
purpose of indirect taxes in developed countries is to keep the general public in the tax net. Indirect
taxes are basically taxes that can be transferred to another legal entity or individual. They are
usually charged to the manufacturer or supplier, who then pass the tax on to the consumer. The
most common example of an indirect tax is the excise tax on cigarettes and alcohol. Indirect taxes
and direct taxes differ in many ways. In our country, the share of indirect taxes in the state budget
is more than 40%.
Key words
:
state budget, tax, indirect taxes, MOLS(EKKU) method, multifactor
econometric model, correlation matrix.
Аннотация
:
Значение
косвенных
налогов
в
формировании
доходов
государственного бюджета играет значительную роль. В результате реформ, проведенных
в нашей стране, видно, что сегодня мы сделали шаг вперед во всех сферах. Конечно, эта
хорошая новость не исключает новостей в налоговой сфере. В данной статье подробно
описаны факторы, влияющие на влияние косвенных налогов на доходы государственного
бюджета посредством многофакторного эконометрического моделирования.
В развитых странах косвенные налоги играют сравнительно меньшую роль в их
налоговой структуре. В этих странах в среднем косвенные налоги составляют менее 40
процентов совокупных налоговых поступлений. Целью косвенных налогов в развитых
странах является удержание населения в налоговой сети. Косвенные налоги – это, по сути,
налоги, которые могут быть переданы другому юридическому или физическому лицу.
Обычно они взимаются с производителя или поставщика, которые затем перекладывают
налог на потребителя. Наиболее распространенным примером косвенного налога является
акциз на сигареты и алкоголь. Косвенные налоги и прямые налоги во многом различаются.
В нашей стране доля косвенных налогов в государственном бюджете составляет более 40%.
Ключевые слова
:
государственный бюджет, налог, косвенные налоги, метод ЭККУ,
многофакторная эконометрическая модель, корреляционная матрица.
ENTER.
In the global tax practice, it is possible to assess the level of development of the economy
of a country depending on the ratio of direct and indirect taxes in the structure of state budget
revenues. For example, in the USA, the weight of real taxes in the structure of budget revenues is
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close to 90%, which indicates that this country's economy is highly developed. Indirect taxes
include value-added tax, excise tax, customs duty, taxes on the use of gasoline, diesel fuel and gas
by individuals for vehicles.
The fact that the state budget of the Republic of Uzbekistan has a
tendency to increase the social expenses requires the continuous increase of the state budget
revenues. As a result of this, it is necessary to ensure a high weight of the budget income from
stable sources of income, such as value added tax and excise tax. As mentioned above, direct and
indirect taxes form a single tax system and are interconnected. The role of indirect taxes in
European countries is higher than in the USA, Japan, Canada and Australia. In European countries,
indirect taxes account for more than 40 percent of the total tax revenue, and in some countries it is
50 percent. The group of countries with this indicator above 50 percent includes Mexico, Turkey
and Korea. In the USA, Japan, Canada and Australia, this figure is 25-30 percent. [2]
It is known that taxes are directly related to the emergence of the state, that is, the state
uses taxes as a financial source to fulfill its tasks. The application of taxes is an objectivity, because
not all subjects of society operate in the real sector, that is, in the production sector. There are also
sectors in society that are rejected by others or whose activities are economically ineffective, which
require the objective application of taxes. More precisely, the division of society into non-
profitable (defense, medicine, science, education, culture, etc.) and profitable sectors and the
natural necessity of financing the non-profitable sector make it necessary to apply taxes
objectively, although the social services of the non-profitable sector are mainly provided by the
state are carried out, so that the taxes that arise as a way of financing them will also directly belong
to the state.
Taxes, which are the main source of budget revenues for the state, are of great importance.
The effectiveness of taxes in the transition to a market economy can be expressed in two cases:
firstly, the need to provide funds for a number of tasks of the state, and secondly, they are the rules
of the market economy.
State budget revenues in 2023 will amount to 231 trillion soums, this figure has increased
by 14.4% compared to 2022 and reached 29 trillion soums. In particular, receipts from taxes to the
state budget amounted to 184.5 trillion soums. Indirect taxes made up the main part of the income
from taxes, this amount was 83 trillion or 36% of the total revenues of the State budget. This
situation ensured an increase of 11 trillion soums or 15.3% compared to 2022. In these indicators,
the growth of indirect taxes did not show very sharp quantitative indicators.
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Figure 1. Composition of the state budget revenue forecast, billion soums
1
The reason is that in 2023, the rate of excise tax on some products was set at 34,500 soums
per liter of ethyl alcohol without added water in the excise goods. Starting from February 1, 2023,
the excise tax rates on oil products and manufactured alcohol and tobacco products were indexed
to 10%. Starting from January 1, 2023, the excise tax rates on the import of rectified ethyl alcohol
from food raw materials, alcohol and tobacco products from January 1, 2023 have been reduced
by 5%.
Figure 2. The composition of the revenues of the 2024 republican budget of Uzbekistan
2
As a result, the reduction of the tax burden did not lead to a very high increase in the share
of these indirect taxes in the state budget. In addition, the reduction of the tax burden of VAT
from 15% to 12% showed that the tax payments of entrepreneurs who pay this indirect tax, that is,
VAT tax, will decrease.
The share of indirect taxes in the state budget revenues for 2024 is expected to increase by
20.3% compared to the share of indirect taxes in budget revenues in 2023. This means that our
tax-paying enterprises that create additional value have increased, and changes in indirect taxes in
our new tax code also have a positive effect on this.
Results and analysis.
As part of our research, we will study the influence of various factors
on the volume of indirect taxes. Based on logical thinking, we have selected several factors and
assumed that they will affect the size of the resulting sign curve taxes. [3]. These factors are:
Factors affecting indirect taxes (trln, soum)
3
1-Table
1
https://api.mf.uz/media/document_files/Budjet_23_uz.pdf
2
3
https://stat.uz/uz/
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Years
Indirect
taxes
Wholesale
trade
Retail
Export
Import
n
y
𝒙
𝟏
𝒙
𝟐
𝒙
𝟑
𝒙
𝟒
2013
31,2618
22,001
46,863
175,4525
170,8499
2014
39,6737
25,512
51,033
165,9354
171,3081
2015
46,0905
29,156
63,027
153,2154
152,1039
2016
50,422
35,396
81,278
148,1594
148,6852
2017
61,9395
38,799
95,952
153,7833
171,6516
2018
94,6427
57,481
113,971
171,3866
238,131
2019
112,8193
86,538
141,385
213,8689
297,5809
2020
112,009
128,741
168,649
185,0029
259,1337
2021
134,0484
183,112
216,694
204,1194
312,4695
2022
175,637
258,444
270,687
236,348
376,905
2023
196,1008
1675,712
295,319
298,9
466,725
To verify the correctness of this hypothesis, we conducted a multi-factor correlation
analysis. (Table 1). The results are presented in Table 2. For this we used MS Excel's Analyz
dannyx package.
Correlation matrix of our analysis
4
y
𝒙
𝟏
𝒙
𝟐
𝒙
𝟑
𝒙
𝟒
y
1
𝒙
𝟏
0,705024
1
𝒙
𝟐
0,987968
0,704558
1
𝒙
𝟑
0,899872
0,862998
0,882529
1
𝒙
𝟒
0,976434
0,784276
0,957462
0,968882
1
According to Table 2, we evaluate the 1st condition of creating a multifactor model
according to the connection between y (resulting factor sign) and x (influencing factor sign).
𝒙
𝟐
,
𝒙
𝟑
,
𝒙
𝟒
are closely connected with y, that is, they satisfy the condition
𝒓
𝒚𝒙
𝒊
≥ 0,8
. And since
𝒙
𝟏
is
4
Author development
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denser than average with y, we exclude it from the analysis. Also, according to the 2nd condition
of creating a multifactor model, that is, the x's should not be closely related to each other.
Therefore, we get the following values:
1.
𝒙
𝟏
va
𝒙
𝟐
𝒓
𝒙
𝟏
𝒙
𝟐
= 0,7
2.
𝒙
𝟏
va
𝒙
𝟒
𝒓
𝒙
𝟏
𝒙
𝟒
= 0,78
The above values are not mutually multicollinear and they can participate in the model at
the same time, so the following models can be created according to the results of the correlation
analysis.
1.
y=
𝒂
𝟏
+
𝒃
𝟏
∗ 𝒙
𝟏
+ +
𝒃
𝟐
∗ 𝒙
𝟐
2.
y=
𝒂
𝟐
+
𝒃
𝟐
∗ 𝒙
𝟏
+ +
𝒃
𝟒
∗ 𝒙
𝟒
First, we identify the first model. For this we use EKKU (Least Squares Method).
𝑛𝑎 + 𝑏
1
∑ 𝑥
1
+ 𝑏
2
∑ 𝑥
2
= ∑ 𝑦
𝑎 ∑ 𝑥
1
+ 𝑏
1
∑ 𝑥
1
2
+ 𝑏
2
∑ 𝑥
1
𝑥
2
= ∑ 𝑦𝑥
1
𝑎 ∑ 𝑥
2
+ 𝑏
1
∑ 𝑥
1
𝑥
2
+ 𝑏
2
∑ 𝑥
2
2
= ∑ 𝑦𝑥
2
First, we calculated the value of the indicators required in the formula. (Table 3).
Some calculations
5
n
y
𝒙
𝟏
𝒙
𝟐
𝒙
𝟏
𝟐
𝒙
𝟐
𝟐
𝒚𝒙
𝟏
𝒚𝒙
𝟐
𝒙
𝟏
𝒙
𝟐
1
31,2618
22,001
46,863
484,0704
2196,141
687,809
1465,021
1031,061
2
39,6737
25,512
51,033
650,893
2604,397
1012,18
2024,679
1301,993
3
46,0905
29,156
63,027
850,084
3972,417
1343,823
2904,951
1837,631
4
50,422
35,396
81,278
1252,909
6606,157
1784,76
4098,212
2876,963
5
61,9395
38,799
95,952
1505,415
9206,892
2403,233
5943,252
3722,929
6
94,6427
57,481
113,971
3304,176
12989,56
5440,248
10786,593
6551,32
7
112,8193
86,538
141,385
7488,872
19989,75
9763,187
15950,969
12235,22
8
112,009
128,741
168,649
16574,433
28442,5
14420,232
18890,21
21712,17
9
134,0484
183,112
216,694
33530,107
46956,56
24545,908
29047,568
39679,45
10
175,637
258,444
270,687
66793,321
73271,53
45392,335
47542,678
69957,48
11
196,1008
1675,712
295,319
2808012,7
18
87213,71
328608,58
1
57912,425
494870,9
Ja
mi
1054,644
2540,898
1544,862
2940447,0
02
293449,61
8
435402,30
1
196566,564
655777
5
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O’
rta
ch
a
95,877
230,991
140,442
267313,36
4
26677,238
39582,027
17869,688
59616,1
We get the function of the econometric model in the form
𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏
1
𝑥
1
+ 𝑏
2
𝑥
2
. To find
the unknown parameters
𝑎, 𝑏
1
, 𝑏
2
, we create a system of equations:
{
𝑛𝑎 + 𝑏
1
∑ 𝑥
1
+ 𝑏
2
∑ 𝑥
2
= ∑ 𝑦
𝑎 ∑ 𝑥
1
+ 𝑏
1
∑ 𝑥
1
2
+ 𝑏
2
∑ 𝑥
1
𝑥
2
= ∑ 𝑦𝑥
1
𝑎 ∑ 𝑥
2
+ 𝑏
1
∑ 𝑥
1
𝑥
2
+ 𝑏
2
∑ 𝑥
2
2
= ∑ 𝑦𝑥
2
{
11𝑎 + 2540,898𝑏
1
+ 1544,862𝑏
2
= 1054,644
2540,898𝑎 + 2940447,002𝑏
1
+ 655777𝑏
2
= 435402,301
1544,862𝑎 + 655777𝑏
1
+ 293449,618𝑏
2
= 196566,564
∆
- we find the determinant of the system of equations:
∆= |
11
2540,898
1544,862
2540,898 2940447,002
655777
1544,862
655777
293449,618
|
=(11
∙ 2940447,002 ∙ 293449,618
+
2540,898 ∙ 655777 ∙ 1544,862
+
2540,898 ∙
655777 ∙ 1544,862
)
–
(
1544,862 ∙ 2940447,002 ∙ 1544,862
+
2540,898 ∙ 2540,898 ∙
293449,618
+
655777 ∙ 655777 ∙
11)=
997598384727,04
Determinants of the system
∆𝑎, ∆𝑏
1
, ∆𝑏
2
are obtained by replacing the corresponding
column of the matrix with the information on the left side of the system:
∆𝑎 = |
1054,644
2540,898
1544,862
435402,301 2940447,002
655777
196566,564
655777
293449,618
| = 𝟕𝟑𝟏𝟓𝟒𝟔𝟎𝟕𝟖𝟐𝟕𝟕𝟖, 𝟏
∆𝑏
1
= |
11
1054,644
1544,862
2540,898 435402,301
655777
1544,862 196566,564 293449,618
| = 𝟏𝟒𝟏𝟗𝟓𝟖𝟕𝟒𝟔𝟑𝟓𝟔𝟐, 𝟕
∆𝑏
2
= |
11
2540,898
1054,644
2540,898 2940447,002 435402,301
1544,862
655777
196566,564
| = 𝟔𝟐𝟑𝟖𝟖𝟓𝟖𝟑𝟖𝟎𝟕𝟑, 𝟒𝟕
We find the parameters of the equation:
𝑎 =
∆𝑎
∆
=
7315460782778,1
997598384727,04
= 𝟕, 𝟑𝟑
𝑏
1
=
∆𝑏
1
∆
=
1419587463562,7
997598384727,04
= 𝟏, 𝟒𝟐
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𝑏
2
=
∆𝑏
2
∆
=
623885838073,47
997598384727,04
= 𝟎, 𝟔𝟑
Thus,
the
general
appearance
of
our
model
was
as
follows:
𝑦 = 𝟕, 𝟑𝟑 + 𝟏, 𝟒𝟐𝑥
1
+ 𝟎, 𝟔𝟑𝑥
2
Conclusion:
If other factors remain unchanged, increasing the volume of
𝑥
1
wholesale
trade by 1 trillion soums will increase indirect taxes to the republic's budget by 1.42 trillion. An
increase in the volume of retail trade by 1 trillion soums leads to an increase in y, i.e., the indirect
tax, by 0.63 trillion soums, if the effects of other factors remain unchanged.
When we evaluated the second model in this way, it looked like this:
𝑦 = 𝟎, 𝟑𝟔𝟐 + 𝟐, 𝟎𝟔𝟓𝑥
1
+ 𝟎, 𝟑𝟔𝑥
4
Conclusion:
If other factors remain unchanged, increasing the volume of
𝑥
1
wholesale
trade by 1 trillion soums will increase indirect taxes to the republic's budget by 2,065 trillion. An
increase in the volume of imports by 1 trillion soums will lead to an increase in y, i.e., the indirect
tax by 0.36 trillion soums, if the effects of other factors remain unchanged. Therefore, increasing
the volume of wholesale and retail trade in order to increase the amount of indirect taxes falling
into the budget will lead to a positive result for our state budget.
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