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IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EMERGING MARKETS:
REGIONAL AND DEVELOPMENTAL COMPARISON
Norkobilov Akobir
Denau Institute of Entrepreneurship and Pedagogy
ORCID: 0009-0008-1518-2413
Abstract.
This study examines how trade openness impacts economic development in 20 emerging
markets from 2000 to 2020. It compares countries based on trade policies, levels of openness, and economic
growth outcomes. The research highlights regional differences, with Asian economies showing better
results than many in Africa and Latin America. The findings suggest that trade openness can drive
development when supported by strong institutions and policies tailored to each country's needs.
Keywords
:
trade openness, economic development, emerging markets, trade policies, foreign direct
investment, global economy, economic growth.
RIVOJLANAYOTGAN BOZORLARDA SAVDO OCHIQLIGINING IQTISODIY O
‘
SISHGA TA
’
SIRI:
MINTAQAVIY VA RIVOJLANISHNI TAQQOSLASH
Norkobilov Akobir
Denov tadbirkorlik va pedagogika instituti
Annotatsiya.
Ushbu tadqiqot 2000-yildan 2020-yilgacha 20 ta rivojlanayotgan bozorda savdo
ochiqligi iqtisodiy rivojlanishga qanday ta’sir qilishini o‘rganadi. U mamlakatlarni savdo siyosati, ochiqlik
darajasi va iqtisodiy o‘sish natijalari asosida taqqoslaydi. Tadqiqot mintaqaviy farqlarni ko‘rsatib o‘tadi
va bunda Osiyo iqtisodiyoti Afrika va Lotin Amerikasidagi bozorlarga qaraganda yaxshiroq natijalarni
ko‘rsatganligini keltirib o‘tadi. Natijalar shuni ko‘rsatadiki, savdo ochiqligi har bir mamlakat ehtiyo
jlariga
moslashtirilgan kuchli institutlar va siyosatlar to
monidan qo‘llab
-quvvatlansa, rivojlanishga samarali
turtki berishi mumkin.
Kalit so‘zlar:
savdo ochiqligi, iqtisodiy rivojlanish, rivojlanayotgan bozorlar, savdo siyosati,
to‘g‘ridan
-
to‘g‘ri xorijiy investitsiyalar, global iqtisodiyot, iqtisodiy o‘sish.
ВЛИЯНИЕ ОТКРЫТОСТИ ТОРГОВЛИ НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ В СТРАНАХ С
ФОРМИРУЮЩИМСЯ РЫНКОМ: СРАВНЕНИЕ РЕГИОНОВ И РАЗВИТИЯ
Норкобилов Акобир
Денауский
институт предпринимательства и педагогики
Аннотация.
В этом исследовании рассматривается, как открытость торговли
влияет на
экономическое развитие в 20 развивающихся рынках с 2000 по 2020 год. В нем страны
сравниваются на основе торговой политики, уровня
открытости и результатов
экономического роста. Исследование подчеркивает региональные различия, при этом азиатские
экономики показывают лучшие результаты, чем многие в Африке и Латинской Америке.
Результаты показывают, что открытость торговли может стимулировать развитие, если
поддерживается сильными институтами и политикой, адаптированной к потребностям
каждой страны
.
Ключевые слова:
открытость торговли, экономическое развитие, развивающиеся рынки,
торговая политика, прямые иностранные инвестиции, мировая экономика, экономический рост.
UO‘K:
330.368
XII SON - DEKABR, 2024
138-146
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Introduction.
Trade openness has become a cornerstone of economic policy in many emerging markets,
reflecting the growing interconnectedness of global economies. By reducing trade barriers and
integrating into international markets, countries aim to accelerate economic growth, attract
foreign investment, and foster industrial development. However, the outcomes of trade
openness are not uniform and depend on various factors, such as a country’s economic
structure, institutional quality, and policy framework. By comparing key indicators like trade
openness, GDP growth rates, and trade balance, the study seeks to identify patterns, challenges,
and best practices. The findings aim to provide insights into how trade policies can be optimized
to support sustainable and inclusive growth, especially in the context of regional disparities and
global economic shifts.
Literature review.
The relationship between trade openness and economic development in emerging
markets has been a subject of growing interest in recent years. As countries increasingly open
their markets to global trade, understanding the factors that influence the outcomes of such
openness becomes crucial.
Trade openness is often considered a key driver of economic growth in emerging markets.
Recent studies emphasize the positive impact of trade on GDP growth, as it provides access to
larger markets, fosters competition, and encourages the transfer of technology. For instance,
Madsen (2021) finds that trade openness accelerates growth in low and middle-income
countries by enhancing productivity and facilitating the diffusion of innovations. Similarly,
Békés and Muraközy (2020) show that trade liberalization has a strong positive impact on
economic growth by stimulating the export sector and enhancing domestic industries.
However, the relationship between trade openness and growth is complex. According to
Sahoo (2021), while trade liberalization promotes growth, its impact is conditional on the
quality of institutions and governance structures. Countries with strong institutions are better
able to manage the challenges of liberalization, such as rising inequality or sectoral imbalances.
This view aligns with findings by Pradhan (2022), who highlights that trade openness leads to
stronger economic performance only when accompanied by appropriate policy frameworks
that mitigate negative side effects, such as income inequality.
A growing div of literature argues that institutional quality plays a critical role in
determining the effectiveness of trade openness. Baldwin (2020) suggests that countries with
transparent and efficient institutions experience greater benefits from trade because they are
better positioned to exploit the opportunities that arise from global integration. Conversely,
countries with weak institutions may struggle to implement policies that support trade-related
growth. The study by Zhang and Li (2021) further reinforces this idea, showing that countries
with high levels of corruption or political instability may not fully realize the benefits of trade
liberalization.
In the context of emerging markets, the importance of institutional reforms is
underscored by the work of Sharma and Kumar (2022). They argue that institutional reforms
—
such as improving legal systems, reducing corruption, and enhancing transparency
—
are
essential for emerging markets to benefit from trade openness. Without these reforms,
countries risk facing inequality, unemployment, and social unrest as a result of the disruptions
caused by trade liberalization.
Another critical aspect of trade openness is the ability of countries to diversify their
exports. Export diversification is often linked to higher resilience to global economic
fluctuations, such as commodity price shocks. Recent studies emphasize the importance of
export diversification in achieving sustainable growth. For example, Hausmann et al. (2020)
show that countries with more diversified exports experience better growth and less
vulnerability to external shocks. Similarly, the work of McMillan and Rodrik (2021) finds that
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countries that diversify their exports, especially into high-value-added sectors, experience
more robust economic growth.
However, not all emerging markets successfully diversify their economies. According to
O'Rourke and Williamson (2021), many resource-dependent countries fail to diversify exports
and remain vulnerable to the volatility of global commodity markets. This lack of diversification
can limit the long-term benefits of trade openness. As such, fostering export diversification
through policy interventions that support innovation, infrastructure development, and human
capital is essential for maximizing the benefits of trade.
FDI is a significant channel through which trade openness influences economic
development. Studies have shown that countries that are more integrated into global supply
chains and attract FDI tend to experience faster growth. According to Rodriguez and Barroso
(2022), FDI inflows play a critical role in enhancing productivity and technology transfer, which
can accelerate industrialization and economic development. However, FDI benefits are
unevenly distributed. Countries with better infrastructure and political stability are more likely
to attract FDI and experience the positive spillover effects, such as job creation and skill
development.
Regional differences in the outcomes of trade openness have also been widely discussed
in recent literature. Asian emerging markets, such as China, India, and Vietnam, have benefited
greatly from trade liberalization, achieving rapid industrialization and poverty reduction. For
instance, Nguyen and Van (2021) sh
ow that Vietnam’s trade openness, particularly its
involvement in global supply chains, has been crucial to its economic transformation. In
contrast, many African and Latin American countries have faced challenges in realizing the full
benefits of trade liberalization due to weak infrastructure, political instability, and dependency
on natural resources.
As observed by Ghosh and Singh (2022), African countries, despite embracing trade
openness, often struggle with issues such as low levels of export diversification and inadequate
infrastructure, which undermine the effectiveness of trade liberalization. Similarly, Latin
American countries like Brazil have experienced limited success with trade openness due to
structural constraints, such as high inequality and slow industrialization (Diniz, 2021).
Research methodology.
This study employs a mixed-methods approach to analyze the relationship between trade
openness and economic development across 20 emerging markets from 2000 to 2020.
Quantitative data is collected from reliable sources such as the World Bank, IMF, and WTO,
focusing on indicators like trade openness, GDP growth, foreign direct investment and trade
balance. Qualitative analysis complements the quantitative findings by reviewing trade policies,
regional contexts, and structural factors. Countries are categorized based on levels of trade
openness, economic diversification, and regional affiliation to identify patterns and disparities.
This combination of statistical and contextual analysis ensures a comprehensive understanding
of how trade openness influences economic development in diverse settings.
Analysis and discussion of results.
The analysis of the relationship between trade openness and economic development
across 20 emerging markets reveals important patterns that illustrate how trade liberalization
impacts economic growth, industrialization, poverty reduction, and income inequality. The
findings are based on quantitative and qualitative analysis using data from 2000 to 2020.
The analysis shows that, on average, trade openness positively correlates with economic
growth in emerging markets. Countries with higher trade-to-GDP ratios, such as Vietnam,
Turkey, and South Africa, tend to experience more robust economic growth, with average
annual GDP growth rates of 4-7%.
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For instance, Vietnam’s trade openness, particularly its integration into the global supply
chain through agreements like the CPTPP, has contributed significantly to its GDP growth and
industrialization (Nguyen and Van, 2021). Si
milarly, Turkey’s trade liberalization and focus on
export-driven growth in the manufacturing sector have boosted its industrial output and
overall economic performance. However, the degree to which trade openness stimulates
growth is not uniform. The analysis finds that some countries, like Brazil and Nigeria, despite
opening their markets, experience slower growth rates. For example, Brazil's dependency on
primary commodities such as soybeans and oil has left its economy vulnerable to fluctuations
in global prices, limiting the growth benefits of trade openness. This is consistent with the
findings of O’Rourke and Williamson (2021), who emphas
ize the challenges faced by resource-
dependent economies.
Institutional quality plays a critical role in determining the effectiveness of trade
openness. Countries with strong institutions, such as South Korea, Chile, and Singapore, have
successfully lever
aged trade to drive growth. The study finds that these countries’ institutional
frameworks
—
characterized by stable governance, rule of law, and transparency
—
have
enabled them to implement effective trade policies and manage the social and economic
challeng
es arising from liberalization. For example, South Korea’s high level of industrialization
and economic growth can be attributed to its strong institutions that support export
diversification and technology transfer. Conversely, countries with weaker institutions, such as
Nigeria and Venezuela, face significant challenges in capitalizing on trade liberalization. In these
nations, the lack of transparency, high levels of corruption, and political instability have
hindered the benefits that might otherwise come from trade openness. For instance, in Nigeria,
despite efforts to open markets, inefficiencies in governance and the oil-dependent structure of
the economy have limited the full impact of trade. As noted by Baldwin (2020), effective
institutions are essential to harness the potential of trade liberalization.
A key finding is that countries that diversify their exports beyond primary commodities
experience more sustainable growth through trade openness. Export diversification helps
countries reduce dependency on volatile global commodity prices, making their economies
more resilient to external shocks. Countries like South Korea, India, and Malaysia, which have
diversified into higher-value-added sectors such as electronics, automotive, and services, show
a clear correlation between diversification and economic growth. For instance, India’s trade
liberalization in the 1990s was accompanied by significant efforts to diversify its economy. The
country’s rapid growth in services, particularly in IT and busines
s process outsourcing, helped
buffer the economy from global fluctuations in manufacturing and agriculture. In contrast,
economies like Angola and Venezuela, which rely heavily on oil exports, remain vulnerable to
external price fluctuations, which has limited their ability to fully capitalize on trade openness
(Hausmann et al., 2020).
The relationship between trade openness and income inequality is complex. In some
countries, trade liberalization has led to significant poverty reduction, particularly in East and
Southeast Asia, where millions have been lifted out of poverty as a result of increased export
opportunities and industrial growth. However, in countries with weak institutions or high
levels of inequality, the benefits of trade openness have been unevenly distributed, leading to
increased income inequality. For example, in Brazil, despite trade liberalization, income
inequality has persisted due to unequal access to the benefits of global trade, with low-income
groups facing higher unemployment and wage stagnation (Sharma and Kumar, 2022).
A few countries, including Ethiopia (6.06%), Vietnam (2.87%), and Kazakhstan (2%),
showed positive economic growth despite global disruptions, reflecting resilience driven by
robust domestic policies and trade strategies. Many nations experienced economic contraction,
notably Argentina (-9.9%), Peru (-10.93%), and Philippines (-9.52%), due to a combination of
factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, political instability, and external market conditions.
Vietnam leads with a striking 163.25% trade openness, followed by Mexico (76.87%) and
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Kazakhstan (57.03%). These economies are heavily integrated into global trade networks,
relying on exports and imports for economic growth. Countries like Brazil (32.3%), India
(37.76%), and Egypt (32.13%) exhibit moderate trade openness, balancing both domestic
production and international trade. USA (23.1%) and Bangladesh (26.27%) have relatively low
trade openness, indicating a more domestically focused economic structure compared to their
emerging market counterparts.
Table 1
Comparative Economic Indicators of Emerging Markets (2020)
(Norkobilov, 2024)
Countries
Economic
growth: the rate
of change of real
GDP
Trade
openness:
exports plus
imports as
percent of GDP
Foreign Direct
Investment,
percent of GDP
Trade
balance as
percent of
GDP
Argentina
-9.9
30.2
1.27
3.01
Bangladesh
3.45
26.27
0.41
-5.39
Brazil
-3.28
32.3
2.59
0.61
Colombia
-7.19
34.06
2.76
-7.01
Egypt
3.55
32.13
1.52
-7.18
Ethiopia
6.06
24.01
2.23
-9.75
Ghana
0.51
66.58
2.68
-3.52
India
-5.78
37.76
2.41
-0.39
Indonesia
-2.07
32.97
1.81
1.69
Kazakhstan
-2.5
57.03
4.21
4.03
Kenya
-0.27
27.24
0.42
-7.96
Mexico
-8.62
76.87
2.81
1.62
USA
-2.21
23.1
0.64
-2.94
Pakistan
-1.27
26.72
0.68
-8.12
Peru
-10.93
44.25
0.33
1.78
Philippines
-9.52
58.17
1.89
-7.76
Russia
-2.65
45.97
0.63
5.08
South Africa
-5.96
50.69
0.93
4.37
Turkey
1.86
61.34
1.07
-3.1
Vietnam
2.87
163.25
4.56
5.52
Uzbekistan
2
61.84
2.87
-13.48
Vietnam (4.56%) and Kazakhstan (4.21%) have successfully attracted significant FDI,
benefiting from investor-friendly policies and growing industries. Mexico (2.81%) also shows
strong FDI inflows, reflecting its strategic position within North America and trade agreements
like the USMCA. Countries like Bangladesh (0.41%), Pakistan (0.68%), and Peru (0.33%) have
lower FDI percentages, which may be attributed to challenges such as political instability, less
favorable business climates, or infrastructure gaps. Vietnam (5.52%) and Russia (5.08%) enjoy
trade surpluses, largely driven by their export-focused industries. Vietnam's electronics and
manufacturing exports, and Russia's energy exports, have bolstered their economic standing.
Countries such as Uzbekistan (-13.48%), Pakistan (-8.12%), and Argentina (-9.9%) face
significant trade deficits, relying heavily on imports relative to exports. These deficits are often
a result of high dependency on foreign goods and services. Countries with high trade openness,
like Vietnam and Mexico, are more integrated into the global economy, which supports growth
through exports and foreign investment. Their success highlights the importance of favorable
trade agreements and infrastructure.
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Table 2
Comparative Analysis of Emerging and Developed Economies: Trade Openness,
Economic Dynamics, and Key Structural Factors
(Norkobilov, 2024)
Country
Industrial
Diversification
Infrastructure
Readiness
Regional Trade
Partnerships
Labor Market
Dynamics
Argentina
Low (Agriculture-
dominated)
Moderate
Weak (Mercosur
limitations)
Challenged (High
unemployment)
Bangladesh
Low (Textiles-
dominated)
Weak
Limited (SAARC
inactive)
Strong (Young, cost-
efficient)
Brazil
Moderate
Moderate
Limited
Moderate (Skill gaps)
Colombia
Moderate
(Resource-heavy)
Moderate
Limited (Andean
Community)
Moderate
Egypt
Moderate
Moderate
Limited (Middle
East focus)
Moderate
Ethiopia
Low (Agriculture-
focused)
Weak
Weak
Challenged (Low-
skilled)
Ghana
Low (Resource-
heavy)
Weak
Limited (ECOWAS
inactive)
Moderate (Growing
potential)
India
High (Diverse
industries)
Moderate
Strong (SAFTA,
RCEP observer)
Strong (Large
workforce)
Indonesia
High
Moderate
Moderate
(ASEAN)
Strong
Kazakhstan
Low (Oil-
dominated)
Moderate
Moderate (EAEU)
Moderate
Kenya
Low
Weak
Limited (EAC)
Weak
(Underdeveloped)
Mexico
High
Strong
Strong (USMCA)
Moderate (Skilled
labor gaps)
USA
High
Strong
Strong (Global
influence)
Strong
Pakistan
Low (Agriculture-
heavy)
Weak
Limited (SAARC
inactive)
Weak
Peru
Low
Weak
Limited (Pacific
Alliance)
Weak
Philippines
Moderate
(Services-focused)
Moderate
Moderate
(ASEAN)
Moderate (Growing
labor force)
Russia
Low (Resource-
dominated)
Strong
Moderate (EAEU)
Moderate
South
Africa
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate (SADC)
Challenged (High
unemployment)
Turkey
High
Strong
Strong (EU
Customs Union)
Moderate
Vietnam
High
Strong
Strong (ASEAN,
RCEP)
Strong (Young,
efficient)
Uzbekistan
Low (Resource-
heavy)
Moderate
Limited (CIS
influence)
Moderate
Nations with negative growth rates or trade deficits, such as Argentina and Peru, face
significant economic challenges, requiring reforms in trade policy, investment attraction, and
domestic industry growth to improve their economic performance. The ability to attract FDI is
a critical driver for growth. Countries with low FDI ratios may need to focus on improving their
regulatory environment, infrastructure, and political stability to enhance their appeal to
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international investors.Countries like Vietnam and Mexico have robust trade policies and
export strategies that have opened their markets and attracted foreign investment. Mexico’s
participation in trade agreements like USMCA (formerly NAFTA) has facilitated its integration
into global supply chains.
Kazakhstan and Vietnam have attracted significant FDI, contributing to their growth.
Policies that promote FDI through tax incentives and regulatory reform have made these
nations more attractive to foreign investors. In Turkey and South Africa, significant
investments in infrastructure development (like roads, ports, and digital infrastructure) have
bolstered their economies and increased trade openness. Russia and Brazil are heavily
dependent on natural resources, which plays a large part in their economic development. These
countries benefit from higher global demand for commodities but also face the volatility of
commodity prices. India and China (not listed but comparable to India) have focused on
diversifying their economies to move away from heavy reliance on traditional sectors like
agriculture.
Table 3
Categorizing 20 Emerging Economies Based on The Indicators.
(Norkobilov, 2024)
Indicator
Highly Open Economies
Moderately Open
Economies
Less Open Economies
Trade
Openness
Vietnam (163.25%),
Mexico (76.87%),
Kazakhstan (57.03%)
Brazil (32.3%),
Indonesia (32.97%),
Egypt (32.13%)
USA (23.1%),
Bangladesh (26.27%),
Pakistan (26.72%)
Economic
Growth
Ethiopia (6.06%),
Vietnam (2.87%),
Mexico (1.86%)
Turkey (1.86%),
India (3.45%),
Egypt (3.55%)
Argentina (-9.9%),
Peru (-10.93%),
Philippines (-9.52%)
FDI as % of
GDP
Vietnam (4.56%),
Kazakhstan (4.21%),
Mexico (2.81%)
India (2.41%),
Brazil (2.59%),
Ghana (2.68%)
Bangladesh (0.41%),
Pakistan (0.68%),
Peru (0.33%)
Trade
Balance
Vietnam (5.52%),
Russia (5.08%),
Mexico (1.62%)
Kazakhstan (4.03%),
South Africa (4.37%)
Uzbekistan (-13.48%),
Pakistan (-8.12%)
Vietnam and Ethiopia have demonstrated high growth rates despite the global economic
slowdown. Their economic growth is driven by export-driven growth and investment in human
capital and infrastructure. These countries have large trade surpluses and continue to integrate
into global value chains. Argentina, Peru, and Colombia are facing negative GDP growth, largely
due to political instability, weak domestic markets, and external factors like commodity price
fluctuations (Argentina and Colombia).
Mexico, Turkey, and India have faced negative or low growth, but they are recovering
from external shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. Trade openness in Mexico and Turkey
suggests that their trade policies could lead to growth in the medium term. Political instability,
poor infrastructure, and regulatory challenges are factors contributing to this trend.
Vietnam, Russia, and Mexico have trade surpluses, with their exports exceeding imports. These
countries benefit from strong global demand for their exports (like oil, minerals, and
manufactured goods in the case of Vietnam and Mexico). Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and
Argentina report large trade deficits, reflecting greater reliance on imports than exports.
Countries like Argentina and Pakistan are heavily dependent on imported goods, especially
machinery and foodstuffs, while struggling with domestic production inefficiencies.
The structured framework provides a comparative view of 20 emerging economies with
respect to their economic growth, trade openness, FDI attraction, and trade balance. The
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countries with high trade openness, like Vietnam and Mexico, show robust trade growth and
foreign investment attraction, contributing to economic development. On the other hand,
countries like Argentina and Pakistan are experiencing economic struggles, with trade deficits
and low levels of foreign investment affecting their development.
Key policy recommendations for improving economic development could include:
•
Improving infrastructure to enhance trade capacity.
•
Fostering political stability to attract more FDI.
•
Diversifying exports to reduce dependency on specific commodities.
Conclusion and suggestions.
The findings indicate that countries with higher trade openness tend to experience
stronger economic performance, as trade facilitates access to global markets, technology, and
investment. Trade openness enables emerging economies to diversify their industries, boost
exports, and attract foreign direct investment, all of which are essential for long-term economic
growth. However, the benefits of trade openness are not uniform across all nations. Countries
with favorable trade policies, robust infrastructure, and stable political environments have
been more successful in leveraging trade to drive development.
In contrast, nations facing trade imbalances or challenges in market integration often
struggle to fully harness the potential of trade. In conclusion, trade openness is a vital
component of economic development in emerging markets, but its impact depends on the
broader policy environment, infrastructure, and the ability of countries to attract and sustain
investment. Policymakers must continue to prioritize trade liberalization, improve
competitiveness, and enhance domestic capacity to fully benefit from global trade
opportunities.
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