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(ISSN
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ABSTRACT
The Iraqi economy suffers from multiple structural imbalances, and this is attributed to several reasons, especially its
dependence on crude oil, in addition to the weak coordination between economic policies, and the dominance of the
public sector, which suffers from backward management methods, as well as the spread of the phenomenon of
administrative and financial corruption. The research was based on the problem that the Iraqi economy is a rentier
economy, meaning that it depends on the oil sector in terms of the gross domestic product and the general budget.
Any fluctuation in oil prices will lead to a decline in the gross domestic product and a deficit in the general budget, and
weak economic activities. The research hypothesis lies in the fact that the Iraqi economy is directly affected by
fluctuations in global markets due to its rentier nature. The research concluded that the Iraqi economy is a rentier
economy as it depends on the crude oil sector in terms of oil revenues, which constitute more than (95%) of total
public revenues, and oil production constitutes more than (50%) of the gross domestic product, which made it more
vulnerable to external fluctuations in global oil markets. The researcher recommends that it is necessary to strive to
reform the tax system and advance it to a level that achieves the required economic goals, foremost of which is
financing the deficit in the general budget, and then achieving economic and financial stability.
KEYWORDS
Iraqi Economy, Structural Imbalances, GDP, Fiscal Policy.
Research Article
STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES IN THE IRAQI ECONOMY AFTER 2003:
CAUSES, EFFECTS AND TREATMENT METHODS
Submission Date:
December 10, 2024,
Accepted Date:
December 15, 2024,
Published Date:
December 28, 2024
Crossref doi:
https://doi.org/10.37547/ijmef/Volume04Issue12-11
Asst. Lect. Ali Hussein Hassan
University of Babylon, College of Administration and Economics, Iraq
Journal
Website:
https://theusajournals.
com/index.php/ijmef
Copyright:
Original
content from this work
may be used under the
terms of the creative
commons
attributes
4.0 licence.
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(ISSN
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VOLUME
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AGES
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OCLC
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INTRODUCTION
A rentier economy is an economy that depends on a
specific economic source or sector, such as (oil), for
example, as is the case in oil-exporting countries,
including Iraq. Its economy depends on the oil sector in
terms of oil revenues, which constitute more than
(95%) of the total general revenues of the general
budget. In comparison, oil production constitutes
more than (50-60%) of the gross domestic product of
the Iraqi economy, which made the country more
vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil markets and
thus led to internal and external borrowing in times of
financial crises and a decline in oil revenues to finance
the public deficit and support economic activities.
Importance of the Study
The importance of the research comes from the role of
the economy in oil production and owning the third
largest oil reserves in the world, and the Iraqi economy
is more vulnerable to external fluctuations due to
reliance on the crude oil sector and the weakness of
other economic sectors (agriculture, industry, and
tourism).
Problem of the Study
The research problem lies in the fact that the Iraqi
economy is a rentier economy, i.e., it depends on the
oil sector in terms of GDP and the general budget, so
any fluctuation in oil prices will lead to a decline in GDP
and a deficit in the general budget, and weak economic
activities.
Research Objectives
1. Analyze the general indicators of the Iraqi economy
for the period (2004-2023).
2. Follow the most important necessary methods to
address the structural imbalances of the Iraqi
economy.
Hypothesis of the Study
The research is based on the hypothesis that the Iraqi
economy is directly affected by fluctuations in global
markets due to its rentier nature.
Methodology of the Study
The study used the inductive and general descriptive-
analytical approaches.
Section One: Characteristics of the Iraqi Economy
First: The high contribution of the oil sector
The oil sector constitutes the largest part of the GDP,
reaching approximately (54%), and the revenues of this
sector constitute more than (95%) of the revenues of
the general budget (Central Bank of Iraq, 2022).
Second: The dominance of the public sector The
dominance of the oil sector over the Iraqi economy
was the reason for the state's control over the joints of
economic activity, as it controls the oil revenues
intended to develop the rest of the other sectors.
However, the procedures adopted in developing the
sectors failed due to the comprehensive policies in
managing economic resources. The state became the
dominant sector and disposed of most economic
activities. As for the other sectors, which were not far
from the state's dominance over their activities, the
role of the private sector was reduced and had no
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influence, except in small economic activities that are
often under the state's control and supervision (Marza,
2014, p. 18). The focus on the private sector had a
marginal role that prevented it from implementing
large investments. It became closely related to the
government's consumer activity and the rapid
collection of profits, moving away from the areas of
developing real investment. This is expressed by the
emergence of the phenomenon of the rapid
development of consumer goods trade and consumer
financing in the most extreme possible form and the
decline in private productive activity. On this basis, the
economic system was characterized by the prevalence
of rent collection, which is the focus of what the
activity thinks about today. The private sector deals
with its economic activity and its intertwining with the
government's economic activity (Saleh, 2013, pp. 202-
203).
Third: Reliance on the comprehensive economic
model:
The concentration of financial resources from oil
exports in the hands of the state led to reliance on
comprehensive central policies in the process of
allocating these resources to develop other sectors,
and what helped in the misallocation of resources was
their use in military issues and activities due to the
circumstances that prevailed during the past four
decades, as those circumstances led to the state
dominating economic resources to give priority in
allocation to military issues, i.e., increasing military
spending at the expense of investment spending and
spending in important sectors such as (health and
education) (Al-Rawi, 2009, p. 324).
Fourth: Weakness of the private sector:
The dominance of the rentier state over resources led
to the marginalization of the role of the private sector;
although the private sector had an important impact
on some productive and service activities, especially in
agricultural activity, internal trade, and services, the
activity of this sector faced several obstacles, which are
(Al-Rawi, 2010, p. 4):
1. The ambiguity of the investment climate and the
prevalence of mistrust in the state's policies towards
the private sector resulted from the state nationalizing
many private sector projects in the sixties of the last
century.
2. The state's control and semi-direct supervision of the
private sector through a network of instructions and
controls that the state imposed on the private sector.
3. The state's dominance over banking policies in Iraq
and its monopoly of banking activity, although the
private sector was allowed to establish private banks,
prevented the private sector from playing its role in
mobilizing individuals' savings to invest in large
investment projects.
Fifth: Foreign trade imbalance:
The trade balance appears with the inflation of crude
oil export revenues from the exports of productive
sectors, so the trade balance gains great importance
inspired by the export of oil, which is the main
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component of the country's exports, and the provision
of hard currency to cover the value of imports. What
should be emphasized is that the increase in imports in
the country is attributed to the inability of the local
product to meet the growing local demand resulting
from the weakness of the production apparatus
(Ministry of Planning, 2022, p. 98). Even before the
destruction of the infrastructure after 2003, Iraq relied
heavily on imports to meet its needs for food,
medicine, machinery, spare parts, and raw materials,
and the imbalance in foreign trade is the result of the
neglect of previous economic policies of economic
diversification policies and reliance on oil exports
(Dakhil, 2015, p. 334). Sixth: Weakness of the tax and
taxation apparatus
The tax apparatus in Iraq faces many challenges and
obstacles that hinder the activation of tax policy as a
tributary to the budget and a tool to stimulate growth
and economic stability in Iraq. The most prominent
obstacles to tax collection can be summarized as
follows (Ministry of Finance, 2012, pp. 13-14):
1. Reliance on the oil sector to finance the general
budget and thus the weak incentive to activate taxes
as an alternative source to finance public spending for
political and social purposes.
2. Weakness of the tax administration in collecting
taxes led to a decline in tax revenues due to the severe
lack of information and data necessary to accurately
identify taxpayers and the spread of administrative and
financial corruption in all administrative circles of the
tax apparatus, in addition to the large number of tax
exemptions and incentives that Iraq witnessed,
randomly and unstudied, especially after (2003).
3. Lack of commitment to submit periodic statements
and pay the tax required by the taxpayer to pay it.
4. more information about the taxpayer's income in
the tax return and its non-inclusion must be included.
5. Taxpayers' ignorance of tax laws.
6. The length of tax procedures related to transferring
returned checks to the judiciary.
7. The length of the judicial ruling related to collecting
tax checks and the delay in adjudicating court cases.
8. Failure to apply deterrent penalties for tax evasion.
9. Lack of speed in applying the penalty of travel ban,
precautionary and executive seizure of tax evaders,
and its executive promise in collecting the tax.
10. The tax system in Iraq, despite the scarcity of tax
laws, suffers from many amendments, exemptions,
and allowances that affect tax revenues. We note that
the objectives of these economic procedures are often
only sometimes achieved.
11. The low cultural level and awareness of the
importance of taxes and their role in raising the level of
services due to the loss of confidence in the
government and its ability to exploit tax revenues in
the best possible way, which has increased the
recurrence of financial and administrative corruption
scandals witnessed by successive Iraqi governments
after (2003).
Seventh: Financial and administrative corruption in Iraq
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Financial and administrative corruption is one of the
most prominent obstacles facing growth in the Iraqi
economy. It constitutes a serious challenge that can
contribute to the delegation of strongholds of power
and the loss of development opportunities, in addition
to the destruction it causes to the societal environment
through the loss of noble socially inherited values and
the creation of a state of social classism as a result of
the waste of public money in a way that establishes a
culture of unequal opportunities.
Financial and administrative corruption has become so
clear that the highest executive bodies in the state are
talking about it. Most prime ministers have referred to
it explicitly and in front of the media. However, the
main problem lies in the difficulty of determining the
actual size of corruption, despite what many reports
have indicated about its indicators and clarified its
aspects. The annual reports issued by the Iraqi Integrity
Commission have indicated the recovery of
approximately (10) billion dollars for the period from
(2009 to 2019) out of the amounts allocated by the
Commission itself, while the United Nations report on
corruption indicated that (17) billion dollars were
stolen only through oil smuggling, as well as fictitious
companies and projects that were not implemented
(Hassan, 2020, p. 7). Eighth: Limited sources of non-oil
revenues:
The structure of the Iraqi economy has become deeply
rooted in its increasing dependence on the crude oil
sector, the continuous neglect of productive sectors
such as (agriculture and industry), and the low levels of
investment in non-oil productive activities. Iraq is the
country most dependent on oil in the Middle East and
North Africa region, as it has proven oil reserves of up
to (143) billion barrels that can be increased, making it
the third largest oil-producing country after Saudi
Arabia and Russia. Low production costs characterize
this large reserve.
The oil sector is the main source of general revenues
for the general budget in the Iraqi economy, as it is the
source of almost all of its revenues, representing more
than (95%) of the central government's revenues and
(99%) of total exports. In addition, this sector is the
main element in stimulating the economy and
financing government activity and the state budget. It
is the main tool in financing to the extent that the
movement of economic development has become
dependent on the movement of oil revenues.
Accordingly, the Iraqi economy has become more
vulnerable to external fluctuations resulting from
changes in international oil prices.
Ninth: Imbalance of production structures and weak
production of real sectors:
One of the features that characterize the economies of
developing countries is the imbalance of production
structures, which is intended to specialize in primary
production, and is often within the circle of production
or extractive and mining activities, in contrast to the
shortcomings and limitations of industrial activities.
This is what appears clearly in any follow-up of the
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economies of developing countries, including Iraq. We
find that the Iraqi economy suffers from an imbalance
in the economic and production structure in general, as
it suffers from deep distortions in the structural
structure of the Iraqi economy, as it revolves around
the production and export of oil without any serious
effort to employ oil revenues in expanding productive
investment and non-oil production capacities.
Accordingly, we find that the Iraqi economy is divided
into two sectors, one of which is developed and
includes the oil extraction sector and its projects and is
characterized by its high contribution, while
backwardness is evident in the rest of the economic
activities, reflecting their low contribution to the gross
domestic product, which has caused a lack of
opportunities for economic diversification and made it
more vulnerable to sharp economic fluctuations in
global oil markets through global oil prices (Yasser,
2013, p. 8). Tenth: Excessive reliance on imports in the
Iraqi economy: Rentier countries are characterized by
high import rates due to their weak production
capacity to meet local demand for consumer goods on
the one hand, and the high marginal propensity to
import on the other hand. The heavy reliance on the oil
sector and its high contribution to the gross domestic
product, the imbalance in the structure of the general
budget, and the imbalance in total government
spending, in addition to the leakage rates from the
income cycle to public spending have negatively
affected the movement of economic activity in these
countries (Abdul Redha, 2016, p. 50). Eleventh: The
growth of internal and external debt: For many years,
the problem of the Iraqi economy has been the issue of
paying off those debts. The wars that Iraq went
through and the economic sanctions led to an increase
in the external public debt from (42) billion dollars in
the year (1991) to more than (128) billion dollars in the
year (2003) due to the interest resulting from that
debt. However, after the year (2003) and after the UN
Security Council resolutions allowed the legitimacy of
the American occupation of Iraq, the United States of
America had to dismantle the structures of the central
economy and remove the obstacles to the transition to
a market economy. The option that Iraq was forced to
take was to implement the economic reform programs
adopted by major international institutions, most
notably the International Monetary Fund and the
World Bank. The case of Iraq was not an exception in
the history of the debt issue. In the year (2004), (18)
creditor countries from the members of the Paris Club
agreed, under an agreement with Iraq, to reduce the
amount of (80%) of the debts owed to them by Iraq in
stages, and to give Iraq a grace period of six years.
During this grace period, no amount is paid during the
first three years, and a percentage of Interest during
the remaining three years, and there is a debt resulting
from the decline in oil prices in June (2014) and its
repercussions on the conditions of Iraqi society (Abu
Hat, 2004, p. 3). .
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Twelve: Increase in the percentage of consumer
expenditures and decrease in investment expenditures
The general budget after (2003) and until now has
been characterized by deviant behavior in the path of
allocating
rent
revenues
towards
operating
(consumption) expenditures at the expense of
investment expenditures, as consumer expenditures
constituted the largest percentage of total public
expenditures, reaching (89.7%), while the percentage
of investment expenditures contributed (10.3%) of
total public expenditures in 2022. (Central Bank of Iraq,
2022, p. 41) These percentages show the large
difference in the allocation of public expenditures.
The second section: Analysis of the indicators of the
Iraqi economy for the period (2004-2023)
Includes the macroeconomic variables of the Iraqi
economy (Gross Domestic Product, Oil GDP, Trade
Balance, Exchange Rate, etc.):
1. Analysis of the GDP in the Iraqi economy for the
period (2004-2023)
This can be observed in the following Table (1):
It is noted from the data in Table (1) that the GDP has
increased from (53.235) billion dinars in the year (2004)
to (73.533) billion dinars in the year (2005) with an
annual change rate of (38.12%) due to the rise in crude
oil prices in global markets, which led to an increase in
the production and export of crude oil in various
countries, and then to raising the growth rates of the
GDP, and the value of the commodity sectors increased
from (36.572) million dinars to (51.473) million dinars
with a contribution rate of (68.70%, 70%) respectively.
As for the distribution sectors, they increased from
(7.559) billion dinars to (11.029) billion dinars, with
contribution rates of (14.20% and 14.99%) respectively.
As for the service sectors, they increased from (3.779)
billion dinars to (11.471) billion dinars, with contribution
rates of (7.09% and 15.59%) respectively. As for the
years (2006, 2007, and 2008), the gross domestic
product recorded a continuous increase to reach
(95.588, 111.455, and 157.026) billion dinars,
respectively, with annual change rates of (29.9%,
16.59%, 40.88%), due to the continuous increase in
crude oil prices, which reached (88.8) dollars per
barrel, as a result of the increase in global demand for
crude oil, which led to an increase in the production
and export of crude oil, in addition to the government
adopting an expansionary financial policy by increasing
current and investment public spending through
increasing financial allocations for investment
spending to support productive projects to increase
production capacity and achieve the goal of economic
growth. In 2009, the GDP witnessed a decrease to
(130.642) billion dinars with an annual change rate of
(16.80-%) due to the decrease in crude oil prices in the
world markets as a result of the negative effects of the
global financial crisis that affected the world oil
markets, which negatively affected the global
economy in general and the Iraqi economy in
particular. The commodity sectors increased to
(74.908) billion dinars with a contribution rate of
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(57.33%) due to the increase in local production of some
non-oil economic sectors (industry, agriculture,
forestry and fishing) as a result of the decrease in the
contribution of the oil sector, and the distribution
sectors increased to (28.046) billion dinars with a
contribution rate of (21.46%), and the service sectors
reached (37.204) billion dinars with a contribution rate
of (28.47%). As for the year (2010), it recorded an
increase of (167.093) billion dinars, with an annual
change rate of (27.90%) due to the return of the rise in
crude oil prices in global markets once again, which led
to an increase in the production and export of crude
oil. Then, it continued to rise until (2013) to reach
(273.587) billion dinars due to the continued rise in oil
prices in global markets and the increase in public
investment spending to support economic activities to
raise economic growth rates. As for the years (2014-
2015), the GDP witnessed a decrease of (266.420
194.680) billion dinars respectively, with annual change
rates of (2.61% and 26.920%, respectively) due to the
deterioration of the economic situation as a result of
the collapse of crude oil prices in global markets, which
reached less than (50) dollars per barrel, which led to a
deficit in the general budget, as well as the
deterioration of the security situation in the western
regions, represented by the entry of ISIS terrorist
gangs and the bombing of oil pipelines, which led to
the difficulty of producing and exporting oil. In the year
(2016), it recorded an increase of (196.924) billion
dinars, with an annual change rate of (1.15%) due to the
government's move to support the economic sectors
and the recovery witnessed by the Iraqi economy.
Therefore, despite the decline in oil prices and the
deterioration of the security situation, the government
achieved a high rate in the GDP. It also recorded an
increase for the years (2017-2018-2019) to reach
(225.722, 251.064, 277.884) billion dinars respectively,
with annual change rates of (14.62%, 11.22%, 10.68%)
respectively, and the main reason for this increase is
due to the rise in crude oil prices, which led to an
increase in the contribution of the oil sector, as well as
the recovery in non-oil sectors, especially the
agriculture and electricity sectors. It witnessed a
decrease to (198.774) billion dinars in the year (2020)
with an annual change rate of (28.46-%) due to the
decline in crude oil prices in global markets, which led
to a deficit in the general budget due to the spread of
the Corona pandemic, the imposition of a
comprehensive curfew, and the disruption of projects,
which negatively affected the decline in GDP growth
and the rise in unemployment rates. It recorded an
increase of (301.439) billion dinars in the year (2021)
with an annual change rate of (51.64%) due to the
recovery witnessed by the Iraqi economy, especially
after the rise in crude oil prices in global markets and
the achievement of a surplus in the general budget.
Development of the structure of the gross domestic
product at current prices for the Iraqi economy for the
period (2004-2022) (billion dinars)
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Years
Commodity
sectors
Co
nt
rib
ut
io
n
ra
te
%
2
Distribution
sectors
4
%
co
nt
rib
ut
io
n
Service
sectors
6
%
co
nt
rib
ut
io
n
gross
domestic
product
Annual
rate of
change
%
2004
36.572
68.70
7.559
14.20
3.779
7.09
53.235
---
2005
51.473
70
11.029
14.99
11.471
15.59
73.533
38.12
2006
64.235
67.19
13.764
14.39
17.397
18.19
95.588
29.99
2007
28.600
25.66
4.200
3.76
15.500
13.90
111.455
16.59
2008
31.800
20.25
5.600
3.56
16.100
10.25
157.026
40.88
2009
74.908
57.33
28.046
21.46
37.204
28.47
130.642
16.80
-
2010
94.920
56.80
37.559
22.47
40.566
24.27
167.093
27.90
2011
142.031
65.35
27.044
12.44
43.179
19.86
217.327
30.06
2012
161.175
63.39
30.834
12.12
54.409
41.40
254.225
16.97
2013
173.787
63.52
39.462
14.42
59.382
21.70
273.587
7.61
2014
165.898
62.26
40.666
15.26
56.277
21.12
266.420
2.61
-
2015
122.400
62.87
30.650
15.74
30.129
15.47
194.680
26.92
-
2016
90.728
46.07
40.272
20.45
66.241
33.63
196.924
1.15
2017
122.588
54.30
46.618
20.65
58.504
25.91
225.722
14.62
2018
145.649
58.01
50.806
20.23
57.910
23.06
251.064
11.22
2019
146.883
52.85
51.594
18.56
67.763
24.38
277.884
10.68
2020
93.400
46.98
42.698
21.48
65.150
32.77
198.774
28.46
-
2021
103.804
34.43
47.847
15.87
71.467
23.70
301.439
51.64
2022
105.000
34.65
49.000
16.17
75.000
24.75
303.000
0.51
2023
138.457
65.41
34.458
16.27
38.754
18.17
211.669
30.14
-
Annual reports of the Central Bank of Iraq, Directorate of Statistics and Research, various years.
1. Development of the oil GDP in Iraq for the period (2004-2023):
The oil sector in Iraq represents the main pillar in building and growing the national economy, as the revenues of this
sector constitute the largest percentage of total public revenues. In addition, specific quantities of crude oil are refined
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in existing Iraqi refineries to produce various petroleum derivatives to cover local consumption requirements such as
(fuel for transportation, power stations and industrial projects), in addition to the fact that Iraq is distinguished by its
huge oil reserves and low production costs in this sector with low depth in wells compared to other countries.
Table (2)
Development of the oil GDP in Iraq for the period (2004-2023) (billion dinars)
Years
Oil GDP
Annual Rate
Of Change
Gross Domestic
Product
Contribution Rate
2004
37.052
----
53.235
69.60
2005
47.223
27.44
73.533
64.22
2006
61.893
27.44
95.588
64.74
2007
76.112
22.97
111.455
68.28
2008
78.166
2.69
157.026
49.77
2009
56.231
28.06
-
130.642
43.04
2010
72.905
29.65
167.093
44.98
2011
115.488
58.40
217.327
53.14
2012
126.435
9.47
254.225
49.73
2013
125.573
0.53
-
273.587
46.96
2014
116.940
6.68
-
266.420
43.89
2015
60.965
47.86
-
194.680
30.52
2016
60.653
0.51
-
196.924
29.75
2017
85.794
41.59
225.722
37.96
2018
86.119
0.37
251.064
34.30
2019
114.386
32.03
277.884
43.50
2020
63.335
44.63
-
198.774
31.86
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2021
137.673
117.73
301.439
45.67
2022
146.521
6.42
303.936
48.20
2023
127.001
13.32
-
211.669
59.99
Source: Annual reports of the Central Bank of Iraq, Directorate of Statistics and Research, various years.
1. Development of oil revenues in the Iraqi economy for
the period (2004-2023)
It is noted by following Table (3):
We note from the data in Table (3) that oil revenues
recorded a continuous increase for the years (2004,
2005, 2006, 2007) to reach (32.627, 39.480, 46.534,
53.162) billion dinars respectively, with annual change
rates of (21%, 17.86%, 14.24%) respectively, and with
contribution rates to public revenues of (98.92, 97.47%,
94.47%, 97.36%) due to the continuous increase in crude
oil prices, which led to an increase in crude oil
production and export, in addition to lifting economic
sanctions on Iraq and allowing it to increase
production and export of large quantities of crude oil.
It also rose to (79.131) billion dinars in the year (2008)
with a change rate of (55.93%) due to the rise in oil
prices in the international market, which led to an
increase in oil revenues, an increase in public revenues,
and the achievement of a continuous financial surplus,
which was reflected in an increase in the growth rates
of the Iraqi economy, while it recorded a decrease of
(51.190) billion dinars in the year (2009) due to the
commodity concentration suffered by the structure of
Iraqi exports and the transfer of the effects of the
global financial crisis in (2008) from developed
countries to the countries of the world, including Iraq.
For the years (2010, 2011, and 2012), they recorded a
continuous increase to reach (66.819, 98.090, 116.597)
billion dinars, respectively. With annual change rates of
(29.19%, 46.79%, and 18.86%) due to the increase in oil
prices, which was reflected in an increase in oil
revenues, which led to investment and an increase in
the growth rates of the economic sectors of the Iraqi
economy. However, it recorded a decrease of (110.677)
billion dinars in (2013) with an annual change rate of
(5.07-%) due to the decline in crude oil prices in global
markets from (107) dollars per barrel to (103) dollars
per barrel, then continued to decline to reach (44.267)
billion dinars in (2016), due to the decline in oil prices,
especially in the first half of (2014) due to the entry of
ISIS gangs into Iraq and their negative repercussions
on oil prices, which was reflected in the decline in oil
revenues, the decline in public revenues, the
occurrence of a deficit in the general budget, the
deterioration of economic conditions and the decline
in the level of economic activity, but it recorded an
increase again in the years (2017-2018) due to the rise
in crude oil prices to more than (50) dollars per barrel
after the elimination of ISIS terrorist gangs, and after
the new OPEC agreement to reduce the cost of crude
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oil production, while it recorded a decrease for the
years (2019-2020) to (99.216, 54.448) billion dinars
respectively, with annual change rates of (3.76%, 45.12%
respectively) due to the return of the decline in oil
prices to (60) dollars per barrel in the global market, in
addition to the spread of the Corona pandemic and the
decline in global demand for crude oil, which led to a
deficit in the general budget (Ministry of Finance, 2004
- 2009).
But it recorded an increase in the years (2021-2022)
amounting to (95.270 117.475) billion dinars,
respectively, with annual change rates of (74.97% and
23.30%) due to the rise in crude oil prices in global
markets, which led to an increase in demand for crude
oil, in addition to the improvement of the health
situation after the decrease in the number of infections
with the Corona epidemic.
Table (3)
Development of oil revenues in the Iraqi economy for the period (2004 - 2023) (billion dinars)
Years
Oil revenues
Annual rate of
change
%
General revenues
Oil revenues to general
revenues
%
2004
32.627
****
32.982
98.92
2005
39.480
21
40.502
97.47
2006
46.534
17.86
49.063
94.84
2007
53.162
14.24
54.599
97.36
2008
79.131
55.93
80.252
98.60
2009
43.309
12.45
-
47.112
91.92
2010
66.819
29.19
70.178
95.21
2011
98.090
46.79
108.807
90.15
2012
116.597
18.86
119.817
97.31
2013
110.677
5.07
-
113.840
97.22
2014
97.072
12.29
-
105.609
91.91
2015
51.312
47.13
-
66.470
77.19
2016
44.267
13.73
-
54.409
81.35
2017
65.071
46.99
77.335
84.14
2018
95.619
46.94
106.569
89.72
2019
99.216
3.76
107.566
92.23
2020
54.448
45.12
-
63.199
86.15
2021
95.270
74.97
109.081
87.33
2022
117.475
23.30
161.697
48.23
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2023
111.783
4.84
-
135.681
82.38
Source: Annual reports of the Central Bank of Iraq, Directorate of Statistics and Research, various years.
Third: The development of the exchange rate in the
Iraqi economy for the period (2004-2023)
After the year (2003), the Central Bank of Iraq
established a window for selling foreign currency
(currency auction) to announce the end of the
application of fixed and multiple exchange rates in Iraq
and the resulting deep structural imbalances due to the
importance of the exchange rate in the Iraqi economy.
The exchange rate was the goal of monetary policy as
a tool to control inflation rates resulting from the
application of the import system without external
transfer and printing currency without any restrictions
or conditions, as the need arose to establish a foreign
currency auction to improve the value of the Iraqi dinar
(Dagher, 2012, p. 10).
As the data in Table (4) indicate, the official exchange
rate has decreased to (1896) dinars for one US dollar,
while the parallel (market) exchange rate increased to
(1936) dinars in the year (2003) with an annual change
rate of (1.07-%) due to the adjustment of the exchange
rate of the Iraqi dinar against one US dollar by the
Central Bank of Iraq. Still, it increased to (1453) dinars
in the year (2004) the official rate as well as the parallel
rate, and with an annual change rate of (24.94-%) due
to the efforts of the Central Bank of Iraq to improve the
value of the Iraqi dinar through the foreign currency
sale window (buying and selling the dollar). Also, in the
year (2005) the official exchange rate decreased to
(1469) dinars for one US dollar and the parallel rate to
(1472) dinars due to the deterioration of the security
situation and the increase in cases of travel and
migration abroad, which led to an increase in demand
for the US dollar. Then, the parallel exchange rate rose
to reach (1475) dinars in the year (2006) due to the
closure of the Iraqi borders with neighboring countries
due to the deterioration of the security situation. Still,
it witnessed an improvement during the period (2007-
2011) to reach (1255, 1193, 1170, 1170, 1170) dinars for one
dollar, respectively, with annual change rates of (14.45-
%, 4.94-%, 1.92-%), and the parallel also reached (1267,
1203, 1182, 1186, 1196) with annual change rates of
(14.10-%, 5.05-%, 1.74-%, 0.33%, 0.84%) respectively due to
supporting the cash reserve at the Central Bank of Iraq
from the dollar by reducing Iraq’s debts by
approximately (500-600) billion dollars to what
Approximately (120) billion dollars in addition to the
auctions conducted by the Central Bank of Iraq to
control the foreign exchange market to support and
strengthen the value of the Iraqi dinar against the US
dollar and avoid the inflationary gap. In the year (2012),
the Central Bank of Iraq adjusted the official exchange
rate to (1166) dinars and continued until the year
(2014). The parallel reached dinars (1233, 1232, and
1214), respectively, due to the Central Bank of Iraq
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continuing to support and strengthen the value of the
Iraqi dinar against the US dollar. While in (2015) the
Central Bank of Iraq adjusted the official exchange rate
to (1190) and continued until (2020), the parallel rate
decreased to (1247) with an annual change rate of
(2.71%) after it was (1214) dinars in (2014) due to the
increasing demand resulting from speculative
operations, then decreased to (1275) dinars in (2016).
Still, it witnessed an improvement during the period
(2017, 2018, and 2019) to reach (1258, 1209, and 1196)
dinars, respectively, due to the Central Bank of Iraq
diversifying its investments to support and stabilize the
value of the Iraqi dinar and stimulate the economy and
achieve financial and monetary stability, which reflects
the success of the monetary policy of the Central Bank.
Table (4)
Development of the exchange rate in the Iraqi economy (Dinar per 1 US dollar)
Years
Official Exchange
Rate
Annual Rate Of
Change%
Parallel Exchange Rate
Annual Rate Of
Change%
2004
1453
---
1453
-----
2005
1469
1.10
1472
1.30
2006
1467
0.13
-
1475
0.20
2007
1255
14.45
-
1267
14.10
-
2008
1193
4.94
-
1203
5.05
-
2009
1170
1.92
-
1182
1.74
-
2010
1170
0
1186
0.33
2011
1170
0
1196
0.84
2012
1166
0.34
-
1233
3.09
2013
1166
0
1232
0.08
-
2014
1166
0
1214
1.46
-
2015
1190
2.05
1247
2.71
2016
1190
0
1275
2.24
2017
1190
0
1258
1.33
-
2018
1190
0
1209
3.89
-
2019
1190
0
1196
1.07
-
2020
1211
1.76
1234
3.69
2021
1450
19.73
1470
18.26
2022
1450
0
1480
0.60
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2023
1324
8.68
-
1452
1.89
-
Source: Annual reports of the Central Bank, Directorate of Statistics and Research, various years.
As for the year (2020), the official exchange rate rose
to (1211) dinars and the parallel exchange rate to (1243)
dinars due to the Central Bank's efforts to change the
dollar to finance the deficit in the general budget in
light of the collapse of oil prices and the spread of the
Corona pandemic.
It also rose to (1450) dinars per dollar in the years (2021
- 2022), and the parallel rate reached (1470 - 1485)
dinars due to speculation in the foreign exchange
market. In the year (2023), the official rate was reduced
to (1320) dinars per dollar due to the decision of the
Central Bank of Iraq.
Section Three: Ways to address structural imbalances
in the Iraqi economy
First: Reforming the agricultural sector of the Iraqi
economy
The gateway to developing the agricultural sector is to
increase agricultural production rates and raise the
level of its contribution to the gross domestic product,
then diversify sources of national income. The main
components for advancing the agricultural reality and
the measures that the government must take can be
summarized (Al-Bu Ali and Shaaban, 2020, p. 88):
1. Work on developing comprehensive strategic plans
to advance the agricultural reality in Iraq, primarily the
responsibility of the Ministries of Planning, Agriculture,
and Water Resources, in cooperation with local
governments.
2. It Is necessary to encourage investments in this
sector and create a stimulating investment
environment.
3. a level of protection for agricultural products for a
specific period, especially for crops, to encourage their
cultivation.
4. The necessity of eliminating dumping due to the
resulting negative effects on local products due to
unplanned import openness.
5. Providing customs facilities for imported inputs to
produce agricultural goods and services.
6. Developing human capital in line with modern
technology methods in the agricultural field.
7. Disseminating agricultural technologies to raise the
level of agricultural production through scientific
research and agricultural extension centers by
disseminating modern irrigation technologies to
reduce waste in water use, and disseminating
technological technologies to produce improved seeds
and innovative varieties, as well as disseminating
chemical technologies such as (fertilizers and
agricultural pest control materials).
8. Modern technology must be introduced widely in all
stages of the agricultural field and modern agricultural
mechanization to save effort, workforce, and time, in
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addition to ensuring the quality of the agricultural crop
produced and increasing its quantity.
Second: Reforming the industrial sector of the Iraqi
economy:
The industrial sector plays an important and major role
in the economic development process, as it is the main
sector contributing to financing development
programs and developing other economic sectors.
Despite the importance of this national sector in Iraq,
it has become faltering and has yet to achieve its
desired economic and social goals.
The productive structure of the Iraqi industrial sector
suffers from the dominance of the extractive industry
for raw materials and the small size of the gross
domestic product, in addition to the fact that the
industrial sector depends on final-stage industries,
such as the assembly industry based on importing all or
some of the production requirements, i.e., heavy
reliance on abroad (Mohammed Ali, 1985, p. 36). The
industrial sector has suffered from the destruction and
disruption of industrial facilities and infrastructure,
whether in the public or private sector, in light of the
new circumstances witnessed by the Iraqi economy
after the year (2003), as the productive capabilities of
this sector deteriorated. Its level of contribution to the
formation of the gross domestic product decreased.
Some multiple objective procedures and measures
must be taken, the most important of which are (Abdul
Sahib, 2007, p. 9):
1. Organizing a comprehensive national campaign to
encourage citizens and government institutions and
stimulate the national drive to acquire local products,
promote Iraqi industrial facilities, and rehabilitate
those facilities that enjoy economic feasibility.
2. Involving local and foreign investors in rehabilitating
facilities that need large sums of money, expertise, and
high technologies within the framework of partnership
mechanisms between the state and the private sector.
3. Reconsider imports and limit the entry of imported
goods into the Iraqi market with local alternatives.
4. Increase investment allocations within the budget
and then increase the amounts allocated to develop
the industrial sector according to a specific strategy
with priorities and according to importance.
5. Work on restructuring companies and factories
according to the market economy and try to identify
projects that can be allocated.
6. Determine the investment map in coordination with
the provincial councils in light of its nature, the
availability of natural resources, and their competitive
advantage to promote new industries through local
and foreign investors, create new job opportunities,
and develop the national industry.
Third: Reforming the tourism sector for the Iraqi
economy
Tourism represents one of the most important
activities in the modern era. Today's era of tourism
investment is an important element in developing
national wealth and diversifying its sources of income.
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It is a prominent economic and digital prosperity
feature if the appropriate conditions for this sector are
available. There are many distinctive tourism
components available in Iraq; if they are invested in a
sound scientific and programmed manner, they will
achieve extremely important economic progress.
Statistics issued by the World Tourism and Travel
Councils indicate that the tourism sector contributes
directly and indirectly by more than (10%) to the gross
domestic product. Iraq occupies an advanced position
among developing countries in terms of tourism, as it
has a comparative advantage in this field, especially
religious tourism; despite Iraq's possession of the
elements to advance the tourism sector, it has not
been able to achieve its mission in economic
development programs, and Iraq can rely on the
tourism sector to advance the process of economic
and social development and increase public revenues
and contribute to creating a sector capable of having a
positive impact on the joints of the national economy
through (Obeid, 2020, p. 157):
1. Enhancing tourism attraction and restructuring the
institutions responsible for tourism activity and
heritage monuments, such as (establishing a Supreme
Council for Tourism) to ensure unity of decisions and
single tourism thought.
2. Strive to revive and rehabilitate archaeological and
cultural sites subjected to destruction, theft, and
vandalism and return the antiquities stolen and
smuggled abroad after the year (2003).
3. Government agencies should increase financial
resources directed to the tourism sector to improve its
deteriorating reality and encourage the local and
foreign private sector to invest in this sector, which
was reflected in the development of this sector so that
it could play its role in diversifying the economic base
and developing sources of income for the Iraqi
economy (Nima, 2016, p. 466).
4. Activating the role of religious tourism because it
generates an important return for the Iraqi economy
and exploiting the resources of this activity to activate
local demand in the holy cities (Najaf, Karbala, Samarra,
Kadhimiya) and providing services and infrastructure
areas and basic services to serve visitors to these
governorates, especially on religious occasions.
Advancing the tourism sector by paying attention to
hotels, restaurants, and tourism professions prevalent
in the tourism sector, whether in hotels, restaurants, or
tourism transportation (Khader, 2016, 551).
5. Motivating the private sector to enter this sector
encourages it to invest in tourism.
Fourth: Rationalization of public spending in the
general budget:
The reforming of public spending in Iraq targets
current and investment spending. Still, the share of
investment spending in expansion is usually much less
than current spending due to the state's commitment
to society to provide what achieves economic and
social development, such as (salaries and wages).
Despite the expansion in achieving the goals that the
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state seeks to achieve, the state should reduce the size
of current government spending according to practical
measures to achieve economic, political, and social
goals at the same time by directing the reform process
as follows (Kamel, 2009, p. 176):
1. Determining the priority of public spending in its
investment and current aspects, as government
spending focuses on providing priority services such as
(education and health), while investment spending is
directed towards successful investments that provide
greater added value in the economy.
2. Working to evaluate the government's financial
performance, verify its guidance to its goals, and
activate the role of oversight.
3. Working to establish several standards and rules that
limit the spending of financial resources on economic
activities that the private sector can perform better
and directing the role of the state to take upon itself
the achievement of its basic functions, which are
represented in defending the homeland, protecting its
borders, achieving justice through the judiciary, and
providing social services.
Fifth: Developing the banking sector of the Iraqi
economy
The banking sector plays a major role in mobilizing
economic
resources,
financing
economic
development, and achieving financial and monetary
stability for modern economies. Although the Iraqi
banking sector is one of the oldest systems in the Arab
region, it remains a traditional system in its work and
slow in its development.
The war conditions that Iraq went through and the
economic philosophy that prevailed in the Iraqi
economy all cast their shadows on the banking sector
in the country, leaving a legacy, work contexts, and
laws that created a large gap between it and the
prevailing systems in the region and the world. The
Iraqi banking system consists of (the Central Bank of
Iraq), in addition to six government banks (Rashid
Bank, Rafidain Bank, Trade Bank of Iraq, Agricultural
Bank, Industrial Bank, Real Estate Bank), in addition to
(30) private banks in addition to (15) branches of
foreign banks.
The Banking Law No. (94) of the year (2004), and the
instructions issued under it allowed foreign banks to
participate in the capital of Iraqi banks. This
participation ranged between (45%) and even more
than (85%) in some banks (Al-Taama); the process of
reforming the banking system in Iraq is a
developmental goal, as it was and still suffers from
major distortions in the policy followed as a result of
the absence of strategic directives that caused a
decline in its performance in providing the facilities and
services that the banking system must undertake, and
to advance the Iraqi banking reality and make it a real
contributor to the economic development process, a
set of reforms must be carried out, which we
summarize as follows (Shandi, 2015, p. 313):
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1. It is necessary to review the legislative structure of
banking work, especially Banking Law No. (94) of the
year (2004).
2. Providing a safe and stable political, economic, and
social environment for banking work.
3. Banking reform must be linked to the economic
reform program.
4. A strategic plan should be developed to develop the
technology used in the banking system according to
the available capabilities and to link banks to a
communications network with the Central Bank.
5. Adherence to international standards, including the
capital adequacy standard and financial disclosure for
banks, reflects greater transparency in Iraqi banking
work.
6. Accelerating the use of the latest banking methods
and innovations in employing banking tools that create
new banking services provided by global banks and
financial institutions, such as electronic payment
methods.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
First: Conclusions
1. The Iraqi economy is a rentier economy, as it depends
on the crude oil sector in terms of oil revenues, which
constitute more than (95%) of total public revenues,
and oil production constitutes more than (50%) of the
gross domestic product, which made it more
vulnerable to external fluctuations in global oil
markets.
2. Tax revenues contribute a low percentage of public
revenues, which range between (3-4%) due to the weak
efficiency of the tax system and tax administration and
the high incidence of administrative and financial
corruption.
3. The Iraqi economy has witnessed many fluctuations
that have negatively affected its sectors, including (oil
price fluctuations, the general budget deficit, the entry
of ISIS terrorists, and the spread of the Corona
pandemic).
Second: Recommendations:
1. Seek to reform the tax system and advance it to a
level that achieves the required economic goals, most
notably financing the general budget deficit and then
achieving economic and financial stability.
2. Develop tax revenues by imposing additional taxes
on imported goods to reduce imports and encourage
exports that increase the surplus in the trade balance
and balance of payments.
3. Close unofficial border crossings used by parties
outside the law by coordinating with the security
services responsible for protecting the borders to
reduce the depletion of financial resources and
increase state revenues.
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VOLUME
04
ISSUE
12
P
AGES
:
97-117
OCLC
–
1121105677
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
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