International Journal of Management and Economics Fundamental
48
https://theusajournals.com/index.php/ijmef
VOLUME
Vol.05 Issue02 2025
PAGE NO.
48-55
10.37547/ijmef/Volume05Issue02-11
Statistical assessment of the structure of foreign trade of
the republic of Uzbekistan
Ergashev Mirjon Yorqin Ugli
PhD researcher, Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Institute for Training and Statistical Research,
Uzbekistan
Received:
24 December 2024;
Accepted:
26 January 2025;
Published:
28 February 2025
Abstract:
In this article, a statistical assessment of the composition of the republic's foreign trade is carried out.
In the article, statistical indicators that fully represent the changes in the composition of foreign trade were used
in the assessment. Proposals and recommendations are given based on the results of the analysis.
Keywords:
Statistical indicators, statistical assessment, export, import, trade balance, goods and services.
Introduction:
According to the United Nations
Department of Trade and Development (UNCTAD)'s
"Trade and Development Report", "The global
economy experienced an uneven and shallow global
recovery in foreign trade in 2023. All countries, except
for North Africa, Central Asia and East Asia, have shown
a slowdown in foreign trade activity since 2022."
Trends in international trade processes have seen
countries around the world witness China overtaking
the United States as the leading exporting country.
International trade in goods and services, which
experienced an uneven trend in the world trade market
in 2020-2022, is expected to grow by approximately 1%
in 2023 [1]. This is significantly lower than the growth
in world economic output. It is also lower than the
average growth recorded in the last decade, and is the
lowest average growth rate of global trade since the
end of World War II. In the medium term, trade will
return to its pre-crisis level.
The important and growing role of foreign trade in the
economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan corresponds to
the general trend in the development of the economy
of our country, as in many other countries. In this
regard, there are several important aspects of
organizing foreign trade activities. First, as we have
noted above, trade is currently an important lever in
the development of the economies of most countries.
The globalization of foreign trade activities is
associated with an increase in the share of production,
consumption and employment for countries of all
incomes and levels of development, associated with
imports, exports and foreign direct investment. Recent
years have shown that the number and scale of trade
negotiations between countries have recorded a
significant increase.
METHODS
Statistical research of foreign trade is a statistical
branch of foreign economic activity, which describes
the current state and development trends of foreign
trade relations in the country and its regions. Foreign
trade allows any economic entity to achieve valuable
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International Journal of Management and Economics Fundamental (ISSN: 2771-2257)
value. Because an item that is considered waste in one
region may have a valuable value in another region. It
can be concluded that the development of foreign
trade relations attracts valuable resources to the
country and its regions.
Many scholars have shown that the development of
foreign trade of a country and its regions has a positive
impact on the well-being of the country's population.
For example, K.R. Reddy emphasizes that exports and
imports enhance economic development, while G.T.
Karamanaj argues that imports can satisfy the
resource-scarce demand in the region. S. Yuksel and S.
Zingen argue that imports, unlike exports, lead to the
loss of national currency and weaken the trade balance
in order to weaken economic growth. However, S.
Bakari and M. Mabrouki argue that imports are a
source of economic growth, and that imports can lead
to investment flows and value addition.
In general, we can put forward two hypotheses that
establish the impact of exports and imports on
economic growth. In the first hypothesis, it is known
that exports are the driving force of the economy, and
we conclude that exports are the leading hypothesis. In
addition, it can be assumed that the causal path goes
from exports to production. When assessing foreign
trade, it can certainly be assessed through its impact on
the gross domestic product of the region. Imports also
offer and should offer a beneficial exchange for the
country and its regions. It is only required that national
production in the country does not stop developing.
In addition to statistical indicators that allow measuring
quantitative changes in each part of the foreign trade
indicators under study, the task of assessing socio-
political changes in the course of the study can also be
set. In such cases, it becomes necessary to study
changes in economic phenomena over time. The issues
of analyzing the structure of foreign trade of a country
and its regions have been studied by many scientists.
For example, Rizvanova E.R. in her study noted the
existence of two methods for studying the structure of
foreign trade and the comparative weight of their
shares expressed in shares and percentages [10]. The
researcher proposed a system of relative indicators
that reveal structural changes in the structure. Another
economist, Roditelskaya E. V., also noted the need to
assess differences between similar structures as the
most popular method for analyzing the structure of
foreign trade (in this case, the study should consist of
two periods) [11]. The economist gave a broader
understanding of the terms "change" and "difference"
in the structure of trade.
таҳлил қилишда энг
оммабоб услуб сифатида ўхшаш тузилмалар
ўртасидаги
тафовутларни
баҳолашни
амалга
ошириш зарурлигини таъкидлаган (бунда тадқиқот
иккита даврдан иборат бўлиши керак)
[11].
Иқтисодчи томонидан савдо таркибидаги “ўзгариш”
ҳамда “фарқ” атамаларига кенгроқ тушунча бериб
ўтилган.
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International Journal of Management and Economics Fundamental (ISSN: 2771-2257)
Fig. 1. The process of organizing foreign trade relations between
countries
RESULTS
Today, these processes cover a wider range of issues
and are carried out at the multilateral and regional
levels. International trade in goods and services is one
of the most important and dynamic factors in the
globalization of the world economy and the
participation of national economies in it.
Data on the structure of trade relations are provided in
accordance with international classifications strictly
regulated by the contracting countries.
Almost all existing methodologies for calculating
foreign trade indicators use the same collection of
Paasche, Laspeyres and Fisher formulas. Using these
formulas, the initial data are changes in the prices and
volumes of goods and services for the current and
reporting periods.
The foreign trade turnover of the Republic of
Uzbekistan in 2023 amounted to 62.6 billion. US
dollars. We can see that this indicator has increased by
23.9% compared to 2022. In terms of volume, exports
account for more than 39% of the country's gross
domestic product, and imports account for almost 61%.
In absolute terms, the volume of exports in foreign
trade turnover amounted to 24,426.2 million US
dollars, and imports amounted to 38,141.2 million US
dollars. Accordingly, compared to 2022, exports
showed an increase of 23.8%, and imports - 24%. [8].
Compared to previous years, the growth trend in
exports has accelerated and is approaching the growth
rate of imports. However, due to the significant
increase in the volume of imports compared to exports
(Figure 2), the balance in the country's foreign trade
turnover remains negative.
According to statistics, until 2012, the volume of
exports exceeded the volume of imports. In recent
years, the removal of import restrictions from a
number of commodity groups and the introduction of
steps towards a free market economy have shown a full
demand for the volume of exported goods. As a result,
local enterprises in our country's economy have also
begun to work on the production of competitive goods
and expanding the range of goods and services. As a
result, the volume of exported goods and services has
also increased. The reason for the decrease in the
Payment
confirmat
ion
Payment
procedur
e
Transfer
Application
Transfer
Exporter
Importer
Contract
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International Journal of Management and Economics Fundamental (ISSN: 2771-2257)
volume of gross domestic product in the 2020s is the
transition to the practice of free conversion.
Figure 2. Dynamics of changes in foreign trade indicators and gross domestic
product of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2010-2023 (in million US dollars)
The largest share in the foreign trade turnover of the
Republic of Uzbekistan belongs to the city of Tashkent
in terms of territory. Statistical reports for the last 5
years (Table 1) show that the city of Tashkent is the
absolute leading region. The main volume in the
foreign trade turnover of the region falls on the services
sector. Absolute indicators of foreign trade affect
macroeconomic indicators, including gross domestic
product (hereinafter referred to as GDP). The volume
of the foreign trade balance, in turn, changes the
volume of GDP. Among a number of indicators, the
main indicator of the national economy is GDP.
According to the 2023 data of the Statistics Agency, the
next places after Tashkent are occupied by Tashkent
region and Andijan region with shares of 9.1% and 8%,
respectively.
Statistical research shows that the volume of imports in
the foreign trade of our country is
significantly higher. The analysis based on 2023 data
shows that only in Kashkadarya and the Republic of
Karakalpakstan, the export volume is greater than the
import volume. In Navoi region, the shares of export
and import are close to each other compared to the
rest of the regions. In 2022-2023, the import volume of
Tashkent city is on average 11% more than the share of
GRP [Table 1].
Table 1.
Foreign trade turnover of the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan and their share
in the country's foreign trade turnover [9]
Regions
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
ml
n
.
U
S
A
d
o
ll
a
r
%
ml
n
.
U
S
A
d
o
ll
a
r
%
ml
n
.
U
S
A
d
o
ll
a
r
%
ml
n
.
U
S
A
d
o
ll
a
r
%
ml
n
.
U
S
A
d
o
ll
a
r
%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
2010
2015
2020
2023
Экспорт
Импорт
ЯИМ
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International Journal of Management and Economics Fundamental (ISSN: 2771-2257)
Karakalpa-gistan
700
2.3
539,7
1,5
657,2
1,6
611,8
1,2
544,3
0,9
Andijan
2532,8
8,3
2796,4
7,7
3166,1
7,5
4281,4
8,6
5030,3
8,0
Bukhara
1259,4
4,1
831,4
2,3
1086,9
2,6
1227,7
2,5
1202,9
1,9
Jizzakh
508,8
1,7
816,4
2,2
532,2
1,3
688,0
1,4
1427,0
2,3
Kashkadarya
824,8
2,7
544,2
1,5
661,9
1,6
547,5
1,1
735,6
1,2
Navoi
834,8
2,7
1312,0
3,6
1166,1
2,8
1244,6
2,5
1326,6
2,1
Namangan
986,5
3,2
871,4
2,4
1089,5
2,6
1276,1
2,6
1380,0
2,2
Samarkand
1749,9
5,7
1492,1
4,1
1920,3
4,6
2384,5
4,8
2865,5
4,6
Surkhandarya
562,7
1,8
421,7
1,2
443,1
1,1
372,8
0,7
325,2
0,5
Sirdarya
570,8
1,9
642,3
1,8
668,4
1,6
813,5
1,6
849,6
1,4
Tashkent
4746,9
15,6
4598,0
12,7
5312,0
12,6
5593,2
11,2
5706,8
9,1
Fergana
1417,8
4,7
1462,3
4,0
1835,0
4,4
2061,4
4,1
1968,5
3,1
Khorezm
557,7
1,8
468,5
1,3
516,7
1,2
7855,0
15,7
871,7
1,4
Tashkent c
13229,5
43,4
12 424,1
34,2
16 431,6
39,1
19 530,1
39,1
24 265
38,8
According to statistical theory, relative indicators of
foreign trade include a number of indicators.
There are two methods of expressing the structure of
economic processes in comparative indicators.
Including, it can be expressed in the form of indicators
of the share of statistical indicators expressing the
structure of foreign trade and the relative weight of
their shares expressed in percentage. In such cases,
indicators for two or more periods can be used in
statistical assessment based on two groups of
indicators. That is, the first are indicators based on the
differences between the shares of similar parts of the
period, and the second are indicators based on the
ratio of the relative weights of similar parts of the set.
In our study, we set out to consider changes in the
structure of foreign trade and indicators characterizing
structural changes. First of all, we note that the term
“structural changes” is understood as differences in the
shares that characterize the composition of foreign
trade over time, and this indicator expresses the trend
of changes in similar structural indicators over time.
Table 1 presents structural changes in the commodity
composition of foreign trade of the Republic of
Uzbekistan in 2010-2013. According to these data, the
share of industrial products in the country's export
structure increased by 3.7%, while its share in the
import structure decreased by 1.2%. Trade in services
has a positive indicator in the structure of exports and
imports, respectively, the export of services increased
by 12.3%, while the import of services characterized
the growth by 2.0%. The share of machinery and
transport equipment in exports remained almost
unchanged, while its share in imports decreased by
4.4%.
Table 2
Changes in the commodity composition of foreign trade of the Republic of
Uzbekistan (%) [9]
Классификатор
Структура(%)
Структуравий
ўзгаришлар (%)
2010
2023
Экспорт
Импорт
Экспорт
Импорт
Экспорт
Импорт
Chemicals and similar
products not included in
other categories
5,0
11,7
5,3
12,6
0,3
0,8
Industrial goods
classified mainly
12,6
17,5
16,3
16,4
3,7
-1,2
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International Journal of Management and Economics Fundamental (ISSN: 2771-2257)
according to the type of
material
Machines and transport
equipment
5,5
43,1
5,2
38,6
-0,2
-4,4
Various finished
products
1,2
3,7
4,8
3,9
3,6
0,1
Services
10,4
5,9
22,7
8,0
12,3
2,0
Food products and live
animals
8,2
5,8
7,1
9,0
-1,1
3,3
Beverages and tobacco
0,3
0,6
0,5
0,5
0,1
-0,1
Other goods
20,5
0,0
32,9
0,2
12,4
0,2
In this study, we aimed to assess the relative changes
in the structure of the country's foreign trade. In this
case, we use the system of statistical indicators
proposed by the above scientists for the statistical
assessment of similar structures of foreign trade in two
periods. Through this comparative analysis, we will be
able to find answers to our theoretical and practical
questions and structurally assess the structure of
foreign trade. This method is currently widely used not
only in comparative analyses of trade structure, but
also in comparative analyses between counterpart
countries. This allows us to assess the patterns
emerging in the foreign trade relations of states.
Accordingly, in our study, we aimed to analyze the
mobility, stability, and structural changes of dynamic
series representing foreign trade indicators. In this
case, we use the recommended linear coefficient of
"absolute" structural changes. This indicator reflects
the average change in the share of foreign trade during
the research period in % value.
𝛥̅𝑑
𝑖
− 𝑑
0
=
∑
(|𝑑
𝑖𝑗
− 𝑑
𝑖𝑗−1
|)
𝑛
𝑘=0
𝑘
Here,
𝑑
𝑖𝑗
is the share of goods in the foreign trade
structure,
𝑖
is the ordinal number of the trade
structure,
𝑗
is the research period, and
𝑘
is the number
of groups.
In addition, in this
study, we also use the “square
coefficient of absolute structu
ral shifts” (
𝜎
𝑑
1
−𝑑
0
), which
provides a deeper expression of the structural changes
in the set:
Here, the share of goods in the structure of foreign
trade, the order number of the structure of trade, the
research period, and the number of groups
In addition, in this study, we also use the "quadratic
coefficient of absolute structural shifts", which gives a
deeper expression to the structural changes in the set:
𝜎
𝑑
1
−𝑑
0
=
√
∑
(𝑑
𝑖𝑗
− 𝑑
𝑖𝑗−1
)
2
𝑛
𝑘=0
𝑘
In the study of the composition of foreign trade, linear
and quadratic coefficients allow us to obtain a general
estimate of the relative rate of change of individual
components of the composition of foreign trade. For a
brief and clear description of the intensity of specific
weighted changes in the composition of foreign trade,
we use the coefficient of the square of relative
structural changes (
𝜎
𝑑1
𝑑0
)
𝜎
𝑑1
𝑑0
=
√
∑
(𝑑
𝑖𝑗
−𝑑
𝑖𝑗−1
)
2
𝑛
𝑘=0
𝑑
𝑖𝑗−1
∙ 100
Through this indicator, we determine the average
relative growth (decrease) of the share of foreign trade
in the period of the research. As a result, we can reach
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International Journal of Management and Economics Fundamental (ISSN: 2771-2257)
clear conclusions through the intensity of changes, as
we mentioned above.
Table 3
Coefficients of structural changes in foreign trade of
the Republic of Uzbekistan (%) [9]
Coefficient
Экспорт
Импорт
Linear
5,9
1,3
Quadratic
8,7
1,9
Relative quadrate %
78,2
20,2
Linear (for period n)
0,5
0,1
The result of our research shows that (appendices 1-4),
from 2010 to 2023, the share of goods and services in
exports changed by an average of 5.9%. From this it can
be concluded that the linear differences in the share of
goods and services in the composition of exports have
a significant variable character. As for imports, the
difference between the shares of the composition
groups represents a somewhat slower change and is
1.3%. As a general conclusion, the volume variability of
the groups of goods and services in the export content
represented a strong variable feature compared to the
import indicators. We can confirm this conclusion in
the quadratic coefficients of structural shifts of export
and import indicators. According to our research, this
indicator represents 8.7% for import content and 1.9%
for export content.
In addition, our study shows that, in relative terms,
each share of the export group composition
represented 78.2% of the average value, while the
structural groups of imported goods and services
represented 20.2% of the average value. The average
annual change in the shares of export and import
groups during 2010-2023 was 0.5% and 0.1%,
respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
As a result of world experience, our country Uzbekistan
shows the need to form multilateral policy measures
and coordination mechanisms for the development of
trade processes. This will allow us to develop weak
economic points and protect our country and its
regions from various shocks and crises. At the same
time, based on our research, we will make the following
conclusions and recommendations:
• Formation of a system of incentives for specialization
in absolute and relative advantage sectors for the
development of trade processes in the regions;
• Mitigation of inc
ome inequality across regions as a
result of increasing trade volumes;
• Creation of mechanisms to prevent increased debt
pressure and political autonomy in developing
economic sectors.
Based on the recommendations of our research, we will
have the opportunity to mitigate the inequality of
incomes of the population in the regions of the country
by improving trade processes in the regions.
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Ризванова, Эльвира Рафаэлевна
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диссертация на
тему «Статистический анализ товарной структуры
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диссертация на
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