COVID-19 PANDEMIC WORLD TO THE MARKET INFLUENCE

INTERNATIONAL MULTIDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL FOR

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COVID-19 PANDEMIC WORLD TO THE MARKET INFLUENCE

Samiev M.A.,

Assistant of the Department of Economic

Theory of the Samarkand Institute of Economics and Service

Hamroev H.H.

Economy Faculty IK-524 group student

Abstract.

This article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of the

COVID-19 pandemic on world markets. The article examines the impact of the pandemic on

global trade, production chains, investment flows, the labor market and the logistics system from

a theoretical and practical perspective. It also assesses the role of international financial

institutions in ensuring economic stability during the pandemic and the economic support

measures of states. During the study, the trends in the local market were also analyzed, using the

example of the impact of the pandemic on Uzbekistan's export and import potential. Finally,

scientifically based conclusions and recommendations are given on the prospects for global

economic recovery and the directions of development of the world market after the pandemic.

Keywords:

world market, world economy, trade chains, pandemic impact, export -import,

economic crisis, economic recovery, financial measures, international organizations.

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented negative impact on the global economy since

the beginning of 2020. This crisis has dealt a serious blow not only to the healthcare system, but

also to global trade, investment, employment and social stability. According to the World Bank

analysis, the pandemic has caused an economic shock three times stronger than the 2008 financial

crisis. Uzbekistan has not remained indifferent to this global crisis. As a result of the introduction

of quarantine measures in the country during the pandemic, economic activity has significantly

decreased. In particular, in the first ten days of April 2020, the volume of trade transactions on the

commodity exchange decreased by an average of 30%, and for certain goods - up to 80%. This

situation has negatively affected small and medium businesses, especially in the tourism, catering

and services sectors.
The Government of Uzbekistan has implemented a number of measures to mitigate the socio-

economic consequences of the pandemic. In particular, on March 26, 2020, Presidential Decree

No. PF-5975 "On measures to fundamentally update the state policy of economic development

and poverty reduction" was adopted. This decree officially recognized the existence of poverty in

the country and established comprehensive measures to reduce it. Also, on March 11, 2021,

Resolution No. PP-4966 "On measures to further expand the scale of financial assistance to low-

income families and combat poverty" was adopted and the Iron Notebook system was introduced.

Thanks to this system, mechanisms were created to identify low-income families, provide them

with social assistance and provide them with work. The article analyzes the impact of the

COVID-19 pandemic on the world market and, in particular, on the economy of Uzbekistan, the

measures taken by the state and their effectiveness. Recommendations will also be developed to

ensure the recovery and stability of the economy in the post-pandemic period.

Literature review

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been comprehensively studied by many international and domestic

researchers as one of the global crises that has had a strong impact on the global market. The

economic consequences of the pandemic, government policies and recovery mechanisms are

discussed in detail in the scientific literature.
In particular, the reports prepared by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

in 2020-2021 covered in detail the negative impact of the pandemic on global gross domestic

product (GDP), a sharp decline in employment and a reduction in international trade flows. The

publication "World Economic Outlook" analyzes these processes based on statistical indicators

and identifies the measures necessary to restore the global economy [1].
The analytical work "COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why the Self-Isolation Policy Will Not Work"

by A. Baldwin and R. Freeman scientifically proves that protectionist policies have intensified

during the pandemic and that this has limited international economic relations [2]. Uzbekistan has

adopted several important regulatory documents on economic measures to counter the pandemic:

The Resolution of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated March 19, 2020 No. PP-4652

approved the “Priority measures to reduce the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the

country's economy and support business entities” [3]. This decision introduced mechanisms such

as tax and customs benefits, deferral of loan payments, and the allocation of state subsidies.
The Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated April 3, 2020 No. PF-5969 “On

measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection, reduce the impact of the pandemic on

public health and economic stability” defines specific tasks to support economic sectors, maintain

budget sustainability, and expand the social assistance system [4].
The article by local researcher O. Vakhobov “The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the

Economy of Uzbekistan: Threats and Opportunities” examines the economic threats caused by the

pandemic, the effectiveness of Uzbekistan's response measures, and its recovery strategy [5].
Also, the articles prepared by D. Kholmukhamedov and I. Khusanov analyze how small

businesses and the service sector in Uzbekistan came into crisis, and what support mechanisms

were introduced at the same time [6].
The above literature review shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed vulnerabilities of

the global economy. At the same time, rapid and systematic actions by governments made it

possible to take control of the global crisis and maintain economic stability. The experience of

Uzbekistan is also an example of important reforms aimed at strengthening socio-economic

protection mechanisms in the context of a pandemic.

Research Methodology

In the process of conducting this study, such methods as a systems approach to scientific

knowledge, historical and logical analysis, comparison of statistical data, monographic

observation, analysis and synthesis were widely used. Also, to assess the dynamics of economic

and social processes, methods of graphical analysis and tabular comparison were used. Regulatory

documents adopted during the pandemic, as well as reports of international organizations, were

selected as the main sources of information.

Analysis and Results

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the global economy. The crisis

situation has developed in key sectors such as international trade, transport, tourism and

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production chains. Many countries have been forced to introduce fiscal stimulus packages to

support economic activity.

Table 1. Impact of the COVID-19

pandemic on the global economy basic impact ( end of 2020)

in accordance with )

Indicator

Before

the

pandemic (2019)

Pandemic

during

(2020)

Change

World GDP height

(% )

+2.9%

-3.1%

-6.0 points

International

trade

volume ( annual)

change , % )

+1.2%

-8.5%

-9.7 points

Tourism

sector

Income

( US$ trillion )

1.5

0.4

−−73%

Unemployment rate

(global, %)

5.4%

6.6%

++1.2 points

International

investments

flow

(FDI, trillion dollars )

1.54

0.98

−−36%

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely slowed economic growth worldwide. While global gross

domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.9% in 2019, it fell to -3.1% in 2020. This is one of the worst

results in the last decade. International trade volume contracted by 8.5% in 2020 after a positive

growth of 1.2% in 2019. The tourism sector was the hardest hit, with revenues falling from

US$1.5 trillion to just US$0.4 trillion, a loss of about 73%. The global unemployment rate rose by

1.2 percentage points, and international investment fell by 36%. These figures show how much

the pandemic has affected markets around the world.
2-

table .

Uzbekistan impact of COVID-19 pandemic on economy influence

Indicator

2019

2020

Change (%)

GDP height bid (%)

5.6%

1.6%

-4.0 points

Export

volume

( billion $)

17.9

15.1

-15.6%

Import

volume

( billion $)

24.3

21.0

-13.6%

Unemployment

bid 9.0%

11.1%

+2.1 points

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(%)
External

work

migration (thousands

of people )

2,650

1,810

-32%

The pandemic has also had a significant impact on the Uzbek economy. While the country's GDP

grew by 5.6% in 2019, this figure was only 1.6% in 2020. This represents a 4-point decline in

growth. Exports fell from $17.9 billion to $15.1 billion, a 15.6% decline. Imports also fell by

13.6%. The unemployment rate rose from 9% to 11.1%, revealing problems in the labor market.

External labor migration decreased from 2,650,000 to 1,810,000 people. This shows how

dependent the Uzbek economy is on external factors.

Table 3.

In Uzbekistan pandemic during the period economic encouragement measures briefly

appearance

Measures type Current form

Result

Tax privilege

Small and average to business

annual tax deferment

Activity save stay opportunity

Credit reliefs

Credit

deadline

extended

,

percentage rates reduced

Finance stability supported

Social help

"Iron

Notebook",

"

Youth"

notebook ", " Women notebook " Weak in layers addressed help provided

Online services Electronic tax , electronic auction ,

remote services

Activity

remote

continue

hold

opportunity

The measures taken by the government of Uzbekistan during the pandemic were aimed at

ensuring social protection and economic stability. Tax deferrals were provided to small and

medium-sized businesses, which allowed them to continue their activities without interruption.

Loan terms were extended, interest rates were reduced. These measures served to reduce the

financial burden. Targeted assistance was also provided to vulnerable groups through the “Iron

Notebook”, “Youth Notebook” and “Women’s Notebook”. In addition, most public services were

transferred online, which ensured the continuity of services under quarantine restrictions.

Conclusion And offers

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the global market. The severe

consequences of the pandemic include a sharp decline in economic growth in the global economy,

a halt in trade, a decrease in investment flows, and an increase in unemployment. International

experience has shown that sectors with economic vulnerability - especially services, tourism,

transport, and small businesses - have suffered the most. The economy of Uzbekistan has not been

exempt from this global crisis. The country's GDP growth rate has sharply decreased, exports and

imports have decreased, and unemployment has increased. However, the rapid measures taken in

the context of the pandemic (tax and credit benefits, social assistance programs, the "Iron

Notebook" and other targeted assistance mechanisms) have served to mitigate the consequences

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of the crisis. At the same time, the pandemic has shown the need to strengthen the social

protection system, digitalize economic management, and establish stable cooperation between the

state and the private sector.
The following proposals can be included in the measures being taken: To ensure economic

stability, cross-sectoral diversification should be strengthened. Along with the sectors most

affected by the pandemic, it is necessary to identify and prioritize sustainable sectors.
Restoring and strengthening foreign economic relations should be one of the main priorities in the

post-pandemic period. Incentives aimed at encouraging exports should be continued. Expanding

the scope of the digital economy and electronic services will create the opportunity to continue

economic activity in any conditions. The targeted social assistance system should be constantly

improved. It is necessary to increase the transparency and efficiency of systems such as the “Iron

Book” and “Youth Book”. It would be useful to create anti-crisis reserve mechanisms in the tax

and credit systems.
Such mechanisms will serve to support economic activity in future emergencies. A system for

predicting economic risks based on scientific and analytical centers and forecasting models should

be established.

References

[1] Jahon banki. Global Economic Prospects, June 2021. – Vashington, Jahon banki nashriyoti.
[2] International Monetary Fund (IMF). World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent.

– October 2020.

[3] O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2020-yil 19-martdagi PQ-4652-son qarori

“Koronavirus pandemiyasining mamlakat iqtisodiyotiga salbiy ta’sirini kamaytirish va

tadbirkorlik subyektlarini qo‘llab-quvvatlashga doir birinchi navbatdagi chora-tadbirlar

to‘g‘risida”.

LEX.UZ

[4] O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2020-yil 3-apreldagi PF-5969-son farmoni

“Koronavirus infeksiyasi tarqalishining oldini olish, pandemiyaning aholi salomatligi va iqtisodiy

barqarorlikka ta’sirini kamaytirish chora-tadbirlari to‘g‘risida”.

[5] O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2020-yil 26-martdagi PF-5975-son Farmoni

“Iqtisodiyotni rivojlantirish va kambag‘allikni qisqartirishga oid davlat siyosatini tubdan

yangilash chora-tadbirlari to‘g‘risida”.

LEX.UZ

[6] O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2021-yil 11-martdagi PQ-4966-son qarori “Kam

ta’minlangan oilalarga moddiy yordam ko‘rsatish hamda kambag‘allik bilan kurashish ko‘lamini

yanada kengaytirish to‘g‘risida”.

LEX.UZ

[7] Vahobov O. COVID-19 pandemiyasining O‘zbekiston iqtisodiyotiga ta’siri: tahdidlar va

imkoniyatlar. Iqtisodiy tahlil jurnali, 2021.

[8] Xolmuhamedov D., Xusanov I. Pandemiya sharoitida kichik biznesning moslashuv

mexanizmlari. Ilmiy-amaliy iqtisodiy sharhlar, 2021.