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THE VANISHING OASIS: WARNING FOR THE FUTURE
Supervisor: Bekmurodova F.A (PhD. UWED)
Sayfullayeva D.A, Abdurasulov A.E, Sayibjanov Sh.S, Ibragimov I.E,
Olimov A.I
Students of UWED, faculty of EIR
Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Abstract: Central Asia is known for its great heritage and the big contribution
for the world history. Its nature is also known for picturesque views namely forests,
mountain resources, and river sides, However, in the beginning of 19th century,
political issues had a sweeping effect on its ecology. Drying of the main water source,
the Aral Sea (68,000 square kilometers before, 26,300 square kilometers now), created
a number of environmental and economical based barriers for Central Asian countries.
This article will explore the causes and effects of this habitual catastrophe led by
human mismanagement and natural disaster as well as the providing with the measures
that are taken.
Keywords: The Aral Sea, human mismanagement, natural disasters, economy
and ecology, water source, drying.
Introduction
Drainage of The Aral Sea is nowadays' major regional issue mainly
encompassing Uzbekistan and parts of Kazakhstan, was considered to be the 3rd largest
endorheic sea until the 1960s. Nevertheless, due to the USSR's insufficient irrigation
1
,
shrinking period started as its water used in World War II to cover the agricultural
shortages. Today the Sea is adapting to become a desert, and locally appearing issues
are affecting the quality of livestock. Additionally, regional people are struggling with
dust storms that occur every season, and this environmental degradation of toxic dust
and water scarcity affects the increasing number of populations born with natural
1
UNESCO. Water security. https://www.unesco.org/en/water
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illnesses. Authorities along with international organizations, have taken several
measures to address the health-related crisis and conducted in-depth analysis of the
root-causes of different human insecurities, also restore the water to the Aral Sea
2
. Turn
by turn this article will explore the current situation of the Aral Sea and the government
attempts to prevent the complete drainage to save the oasis.
Research data and methods:
All statistic information in this article is based on UN, Uzbekistan Ministry of
Health, World Islamic Association, IFAC, and ASPB. Moreover, research findings are
made through observation and secondary data.
Literature review:
Many scholars made researches about the case in the Aral Sea. The
scientists explored about The Aral Sea's history which reflects a complex interplay of
natural and human-induced factors driving its regression and transgression cycles.
Other studies have extensively documented these changes through geological,
archeological, and historical records, highlighting significant lake level fluctuations
over the past two millennia. While early research provided foundational insights into
Aral Sea dynamics, advances in sediment analysis, radiocarbon dating, and remote
sensing have improved the accuracy of reconstructions.
Irrigative unsustainability of Central Asia which had caused to shrink of Aral
was analyzed by Philip Micklin
3
. He studied historical fluctuations of Aral: the main
natural influencer of the vast lake and how the government made a fatal mistake leading
to depletion, which had showed severe agricultural and economic crises.
Monocultural diversity of irrigation, air and soil salinization, health caring
barriers and increasing degree of mortality were researched by Philip Whish-Wilson
and Michael H. Glantz.
4
According to their analyses, the natural drawback produces
high mortality among infants, malnutrition, and diseases like tuberculosis and hepatitis.
2
UN Uzbekistan. Summary Project Report on a Socio-economic Survey of the Needs of the Population in the Aral Sea
region. https://uzbekistan.un.org/en/49740-summary-project-report-socio-economic-survey-needs-population-aral-sea-
region
3
Micklin. P. (2010). The past, present, and future of Aral Sea
4
Whish-Wilson. P, Glantz. H. (2002). The Aral Sea environmental health crisis
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Ecological problems and restorations of the Aral Sea zone was Bao Anming
5
, he
believed that there should be artificial floods to restore the surface of the Aral Sea.
Manzoor Qadir, Andrew D Noble, Asad S Qureshi, Raj K Gupta, Tulkun
Yuldashev, Akmal Karimov
6
they have studied the ecological crisis and its impact on
Health, he emphasizes that the shrinking of the Aral Sea and the rising salinity levels
in the surrounding areas have had a significant negative impact on public health.
According to the study, the contamination of water sources, increased salt and chemical
pollutants in the air, has led to respiratory diseases and other health problems. This
issue has disproportionately affected children and the elderly.
Olimjon Saidmamatov, Umidjon Matyakubov, Inna Rudenko, Viachaslau
Filimonau, Jonathan Day
7
they explore the social-economic impacts of the Aral crisis.
The reduction of water resources has severely affected agriculture, particularly
farming. The research mentions that in some regions, this has led to population
migration, a decrease in employment levels, and a decline in economic activity.
Sergey Krivinogov
8
focuses on the loss of biodiversity due to the drying of the
Aral Sea. The disappearance of plant and animal species in the region has destabilized
the ecosystem. This, in turn, has had a severe impact on the local population’s way of
life and their daily activities.
Alexander A. Svitoch
9
analyzes the Aral Sea crisis from the perspective of
international law. The drying up of the Aral Sea and the degradation of the environment
have led to violations of human and ecological rights. The study particularly highlights
issues related to the population's right to clean water and maintaining public health.
Tatyana A. Shvidenko’s
10
study discusses the potential for the future ecological
restoration of the Aral Sea region. The research considers the possibilities of water
5
Anming. B. (2007). Aral Sea Basin: A Sea Dies, A Sea Also Rises
6
Qadir. M, Noble. A. D, Qureshi. A.S, Gupta. R. K, Yuldashev. T, Karimov. A. (2009). Salt‐induced land and water
degradation in the Aral Sea basin: A challenge to sustainable agriculture in Central Asia. Natural resources forum
7
Saidmamatov. O, Matyakubov. U, Rudenko. I, Filimonau. V, Day. Jonathan. (2020). Employing ecotourism
opportunities for sustainability in the Aral Sea Region: Prospects and challenges
8
Kriginogov. S. (2014). Changes of the Aral Sea levels
9
Svitoch. A. A. (2009). Palaeogeographical history of the Aral Sea
10
Shvidenko. T.A. (2017). Environmental Issues Resulting from the Drying of the Aral Sea
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conservation, ecological rehabilitation, and the introduction of green technologies as
means to restore both the population and the environment in the region.
Causes and effects
The climate change issue is happening nowadays in the region of
Karakalpakstan (in Uzbekistan); the disappearing Aral Sea, till 1960s served as the
main source of water, and as a result of Soviet Union’s project about the construction
of dams and water control structures lead to the overuse of water in agriculture and the
Aral Sea was isolated from its only sources of water Amu Darya and Syr Darya. The
project’s main goal was to undertake the two major water rivers, turn deserts into farms
for cotton and other crops, fed by snowmelt and mountain precipitation, leading to
clinical degradation. In spite of the process made desert farms flourished, the
consequences spoilt the demographic life, local household and the habitat. By 2009, it
had fragmented into four water bodies, losing 92% of its volume and seeing an increase
in salinity.
11
Back in several decades, fluctuations in the Aral Sea’s size were influenced by
natural diversions of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river. However, post-1960
depletion resulted mainly from extensive water withdrawals for agriculture, leading to
severe ecological and economic crises. Complete restoration is unlikely, but partial
recovery is possible. A 2005 project successfully revived the Small Aral Sea, raising
water levels and reducing salinity. However, restoring the Large Aral Sea remains
costly and complex. Efforts should focus on preserving deltas and maintaining
biological refugia. Moreover, health issues include high infant mortality, malnutrition,
and diseases like tuberculosis and hepatitis increased during the shrinking period.
Toxic pollutants in the environment contribute to cancer and reproductive disorders,
while water shortages worsen conditions.
Worldwide, the index of such water sources is increasing. For instance, Lake
Chad in Africa
12
, shrunk by 90% since 1960s, as a result of combination of climate
Brilliant Maps. The Incredible Shrinking Aral Sea 1960-2014. brilliantmaps.com
12
The Lake Chad basin. https://www.fao.org
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change (reduced rainfall) and also human activities, including water usage for irrigation
and dam construction, obviously the reasons are as similar as the Aral Sea’s case. Lake
Winnipeg
13
situated in North America,
is linked to prehistoric dry conditions and a period of reduced lake area, due to
changes of landscape and climate.
As well as the ecological impacts, it has a political, economic, social, and
technological factors affecting the Aral Sea.
Pest analysis of the Aral Sea that shows the impacts on the policy, economy,
social, and technological factors to the government
Political factors: The Aral Sea is boarded by Uzbekistan Turkmenistan and
Kazakhstan so the political cooperation among these countries has been challenging,
including the water usage interests, agriculture and economic priorities.
The diversion of rivers has been a vital political decision in the Soviet era; thus,
this prompted the lack of strong and coordinated Water management policy. Also, the
environmental policies in the region have historically been weak, with insufficient
enforcement of regulations. This complicated the efforts taking by the government.
International aids including those from the UN, have been limited in terms of creating
13
Environment and Climate Change. Lake Winnipeg. https://www.gov.mb.ca/sd/water/lakes-beaches-
rivers/lake-winnipeg.html
P
olitical factors:
1.
Geopolitical issues
2.
Water management and policy
3.
Environmental legislation
4.
International aid and cooperation
E
conomic factors:
1.
Agricultural dependency
2.
Fishing industry collapse
3.
Environmental damage cost
4.
Tourism potential
S
ocial factors:
1.
Health issues
2.
Migration
3.
Cultural impact
4.
Social inequality
T
echnological factors:
1.
Irrigation techniques
2.
Desalination technologies
3.
Restoration Technologies
4.
Renewable energy
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sustainable solutions for the restoration process. Economic factors: The economies of
the countries surrounding the Aral Sea, particularly Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, are
heavily dependent on agriculture. The fishing industry is almost completely devastated,
influencing the locals whose major income included fishing, as the decline in fish stock
have occurred as a result of high salt rate (10 grams per liter) and drainage basin.
Furthermore, population faced with some health problems: respiratory issues due to
strong dust storms from the exposed seabed which leads to higher healthcare costs.
With the environmental collapse, tourism in the area has also been severely affected,
restricting the economic recovery from tourism sector. Social factors: This desiccation
created several widespread health-based problems; harmful salts and chemicals
inflaming the asthma, additionally, increasing morality rate among new born babies
are being a huge problem for the regional healthcare policies. The collapse in economy
also caused the social inequality, affecting the poorer communities in the area.
Worsening living quality pushed for migration leading to the depopulation and stricter
pressure on other regions such as Khorezm and Kyzylorda. Disappearing culture and
history has a significant importance, and this was resulted in the loss of traditional
livelihoods. Technological factors: Inefficient irrigation systems, such as using flood
aggravated the situation, In the early 2000s the sea had shrunk to less than 10,000
square kilometers (1,087 sq kilometers per year), representing a nearly 90% loss of its
surface area, the massive lake split into main bodies: the North Aral Sea, the South
Aral Sea larger and much smaller ones respectively.
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Table 1: drainage rate of the North and South parts of the Aral Sea from
1990 and 2020
14
The drainage basin in the North Aral Sea (mostly located in Kazakhstan) started
from 1960s due to inefficient strategy of USSR, the 2 rivers have changed the direction,
along with that the following years were the desiccation period, the drastic desiccation
commenced from 1980s, the influence of climate change (in summertime period the
temperature rose by 12°C) and the misuse of left water accelerated the process. By the
early 2000s, the North Sea had lost about 60% of its surface area. To address the issues
the authorities of Kazakhstan constructed the Kok-Aral Dam in 2005, this helped to
restore the water, the sea level rose from 30 meters to 38 meters by 2006, it also reduced
the salinity levels which facilitated the return of freshwater fish species, and revived
the local fishing industry. Till 2020, this stabilized the procedure, but it remains much
smaller compared to the 1990. Between October 2024 and January 2025, surpassing
the initial expectations one billion cubic meters of water were added.
The South Aral Sea (Uzbekistan) is much smaller one and this side of sea has
been severely affected part of the Aral Sea basin, by experiencing the significant
shrinkage over the past decades. In 1990, the sea already shrunk to about half its
original size approximately 10,000 square kilometers. The next years, sea went through
the sharp shrinking, and in 2000 the South Aral Sea had shrunk by 90% of its original
size. Nowadays, only a small remnant of sea remains, and the eastern portion entirely
disappeared. Local authorities planted saxaul and to mitigate the damage as its core,
this plant’s structural adaptations include the water reserves and keeping from
dehydration.
International programs and financial allocations
International Programs provided support to the nature and helped the
affected population, so several initiatives are taken. For instance, Aral Sea Basin
Program (ASBP) was initiated in 1994 as a regional cooperation, aimed to backbone
the environmental and socio-economic consequences of the Aral Sea disaster. The
14
Aral Sea transboundary river basin. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. openknowledge.fao.org
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ASBP-2
15
included project financed by international organizations and governments,
funding over $2 billion. In 1993 five Central Asian countries established the
International Environmental Fund for the Aral Sea (IFAS), this program works with
UN and World Bank and other international donors to fund Aral-related projects. IFAS
focuses on the management of water, and reducing the polluting also including public
health initiatives. Uzbekistan with IFAS’s support has set up forest plantation strategy
on the Akpetke Archipelago, inner island appeared by desiccation of the sea, aiming to
plant up to 200,00 hectares. Recently World Islamic Relief Agency (WIEA) along with
international organizations, has played a crucial role in providing with needed
humanitarian aid. WIEA allocated financial support based on the severity of the crisis,
such as food aid, healthcare, and clean water access. Their funding involves donations,
government grants and partnerships with other international agencies. The survey
conducted in 2018 by UN covered 1,600 households across 116 communities, focused
on improving the public health, highlighting the high rates of respiratory diseases and
malnutrition, also to develop sustainable livelihoods for people who rely on fishing and
agriculture.
16
December 31, 2022, The UN
17
contributes approximately $16,42 million
from various donors, and $8,61 million was reported as expenditure, to support projects
aiming the region’s condition.
Food & Water and Health sector is mainly considered fields internationally,
organizations such as UNESCO, UNICEF, UNDP, and UNFPA implemented projects
regarding the before mentioned sectors.
15
Agency of IFAS. Aral.uz
16
International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea as a Platform for Sustainable Development of Central Asia
https://www.icwc-aral.uz
17
Human Security Trust Fund. https://www.un.org
Project name
Agency
Status
Approved
budget
Expenditure
Percentage
Food & Water
Aral
Sea
MPTF-Human
Insecu
UNDP
Operationally
closed
1,312,414 1,311,007
99.89
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Table 2: displays the net funded amounts and financial delivery rates by
joint program and participating organizations on the Aral Sea disaster. The Fund
governance allocations are referred to as “direct costs”
18
In 2022, the total funding for food & water accounted for: $1,463,900
(99.90%), and Health totally amount to $4,910,911.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, it can be said that, The Aral Sea crisis stands as one of the most
severe environmental disasters of modern times, with unrenewable consequences for
the economy, ecology, public health of Central Asia. The restoration water and
greenery projects that are carrying on todays have a positive impact on the
enhancement of the region, and the regional governments continue to invest in
rehabilitation strategies, but this long-term process requires big efforts, and a
combination of effective water management policies, technological innovations, and a
18
CONSOLIDATED ANNUAL FINANCIAL REPORT of the Administrative Agent. Aral Sea UN Human Security
Trust Fund for the Aral Sea in Uzbekistan for the period 1 January to 31 December 2022. https://mptf.undp.org
Aral
Sea
MPTF-Human
Insecu
UNESCO Operationally
closed
151,487
147,785
99.90
Health
Aral
Sea
MPFT-
Perinatal care
UNFPA
Operationally
closed
639,322
639,290
99.99
Aral
Sea
MPFT-
Perinatal care
UNICEF
Operationally
closed
980,344
980,344
100.00
JP-Investing
Karakalpakstan
UNFPA
On Going
200,250
194,410
99.58
JP-Investing
Karakalpakstan
UNICEF
On Going
3,098,027 2,858,837
92.28
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stronger joint of nations as well as being a huge financial stopper for state budget. If
the above-mentioned human mismanagements are not stopped in approaching decades,
this phenomenon will get more fatal for all over the globe causing depletion of other
vital water resources. However, the mankind actions bound to be a culprit in the global
warming, but the already happened efforts cannot be overcame.
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1.
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