Жамият ва инновациялар –
Общество и инновации –
Society and innovations
Journal home page:
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Analysis of the macroeconomic policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Konstantin KURPAYANIDI
1
, Alisher ABDULLAEV
2
, Shakhrizoda MUKHSINOVA
3
Ferghana Polytechnic Institute
ARTICLE INFO
ABSTRACT
Article history:
Received May 2021
Received in revised form
20 May 2021
Accepted 15 June 2021
Available online
15 July 2021
In the article, studying various approaches to the concept of
macroeconomic policy, the authors propose to consider macroeconomic
policy as a state policy, the main purpose of which is to limit the levels of
unemployment and inflation, support macroeconomic indicators,
prevent economic crises, and ensure the stable functioning of the
economy, taken relatively by the government. The analysis conducted on
the example of Uzbekistan showed what measures are being taken by the
government to digitalize the economy during the pandemic and what
needs to be done for the government. The author analyzes the branches
of macroeconomic policy and suggests some measures for optimal
solution of problems with macroeconomic policy on the example of the
Republic of Uzbekistan.
2181-1415/© 2021 in Science LLC.
This is an open access article under the Attribution 4.0 International
(CC BY 4.0) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.ru)
Keywords:
macroeconomic policy,
unemployment rate,
growth rate,
gross domestic product, public
debt,
macroeconomic policy of the
Republic of Uzbekistan.
O‘zbekiston Respublikasining makroiqtisodiy siyosatini tahlil qilish
ANNOTATSIYA
Kalit so‘zlar:
makroiqtisodiy siyosat, ishsizlik
darajasi,
o‘sish sur’ati,
yalpi ichki mahsulot,
davlat qarzi,
O‘zbekiston Respublikasining
makroiqtisodiy siyosati.
Maqolada, makroiqtisodiy siyosat tushunchasiga turli yonda-
shuvlarni o‘rganib, mualliflar makroiqtisodiy siyosatni davlat siyosati deb
hisoblashni taklif qiladilar, uning asosiy maqsadi ishsizlik va inflyatsiya
darajasini cheklash, makroiqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichlarni qo‘llab-quvvatlash,
iqtisodiy inqirozlarning oldini olish, hukumatga nisbatan qabul qilingan
iqtisodiyotning barqaror ishlashini ta’minlashdir. O‘zbekiston misolida
o‘tkazil-gan tahlillar hukumat tomonidan pandemiya davrida iqti-
sodiyotni raqamlashtirish orqali qanday choralar ko‘rilayotgani va
hukumat uchun nima qilish kerakligini ko‘rsatdi. Muallif makroiqtisodiy
siyosat sohalarini tahlil qiladi va O‘zbekiston Respublikasi misolida
makroiqtisodiy siyosat bilan bog‘liq muammolarni maqbul hal qilish
uchuёn ba’zi chora-tadbirlar taklif etadi.
1
Doctor of philosophy in Economics, associate Professor, Ferghana Polytechnic Institute, Ferghana, Uzbekistan.
E-mail: w7777@mail.ru, konstantin@ferpi.uz.
2
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Economics Ferghana Polytechnic Institute, Ferghana, Uzbekistan.
3
Second-year student, Faculty of production management, Ferghana Polytechnic Institute, Ferghana, Uzbekistan,
E-mail: shahrizada724@gmail.com.
Жамият ва инновациялар – Общество и инновации – Society and innovations
Special Issue – 6 (2021) / ISSN 2181-1415
249
Анализ макроэкономической политики Республики Узбекистан
АННОТАЦИЯ
Ключевые слова:
макроэкономическая
политика,
уровень безработицы,
темп роста,
валовый внутренний
продукт,
государственный долг,
макроэкономическая
политика Республики
Узбекистан.
В статье, изучая различные подходы к понятию
макроэкономическая
политика,
авторы
предлагают
рассматривать
макроэкономическую
политику
как
государственную политику, основной целью которой является
ограничение уровней безработицы и инфляции, поддержка
макроэкономических
показателей,
предотвращение
экономических
кризисов,
обеспечение
стабильного
функционирования экономики, принимаемых относительно
правительством. Проведенный анализ на примере Узбекистана
показал, какие меры принимаются правительством, путем
цифровизации экономики во время пандемии и что предстоит
сделать для правительства. Автором анализируется отрасли
макроэкономической политики и предлагаются некоторые
меры
для
оптимального
решения
проблем
с
макроэкономической политикой на примере Республики
Узбекистан.
INTRODUCTION
In the modern economy, the macroeconomic policy of the state plays an important role in
determining the pace, structure and scale of development.
The relevance of this article is the optimal solution of problems for the development of
macroeconomic policy on the example of the Republic of Uzbekistan during the coronavirus
pandemic. The article considers the types of macroeconomic policy, the analysis of the structure
and content of the macroeconomic policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the measures of the
government during the pandemic.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Macroeconomic policy is a well-studied area for the country’s economy, but the
development of new problems that contribute to a decrease in the growth rate of a certain country’s
economy requires new methods of solving. Therefore, at the same time, it is worth studying existing
studies, which creates certain restrictions for studying. Many specialists have their own point of
view, considering and analyzing economic resources in their scientific works.
These are the works of such scientists from the domestic country such as Hadjiev B.D.,
Mambetzhanov K.K., from the CIS countries such as Balabanova G.G., Zhuravleva L.I., Nosova S.S.,
Vechkanov G.C. and from far foreign countries such as N.G. Mankyu and others.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The methodological basis of the research consists of research, analog, mathematical,
situational approaches, as well as methods of logical and comparative analysis, observation
methods and statistical methods.
ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
In the modern economy, macroeconomic policy plays an important role in determining the
pace, structure and scale of development. The development of the economy in the context of
macroeconomic policy is the main problem that we have to face when we have to raise the issue of
attracting investment to the state. At the same time, there is a problem of the development of
Жамият ва инновациялар – Общество и инновации – Society and innovations
Special Issue – 6 (2021) / ISSN 2181-1415
250
macroeconomic policy. This problem is being solved within the framework of the development of
branches of macroeconomic policy.
“Macroeconomic policy is a state policy, the main goal of which is to limit the levels of
unemployment and inflation, support macroeconomic indicators, prevent economic crises, ensure
the stable functioning of the economy, taken relatively by the government”.
2020 undoubtedly brought many difficulties to every country in the world. Governments
were forced to completely rethink their economies, and some countries faced poverty. Developing
countries were forced to attract huge funds to keep their economies afloat.
Table 1
Macroeconomic indicators
Macroeconomicindicators
2019
2020
2021 (прогноз)
GDP growth
5,7 %
1,6%
5,1%
Inflation
15,2%
11,1%
9-10%
Unemploymentrate
9%
11,1%
отсутствует
CPI
13,5%
12,5%
9-10%
Foreigntradebalance
$41,8 billion
$38,6 billion
$41,9 billion
Foreigndirectinvestment
$6,51 billion
$6,63 billion
$7,81 billion
According to (table 1), during the crisis, the growth of the national economy slowed
significantly last year to 1-1. 5%. In order to support the economy, the Government has
adopted a Practical Action Plan to restore Economic growth and continue structural
reforms in the Republic of Uzbekistan (table 2).
Table 2
Practical action plan for restoring economic growth and continuing structural reforms
The Action Plan
provides for the coordination of the efforts of the Government, ministries, departments,
economic associations, and local state authorities to:
overcoming the negative
consequences of the coronavirus
pandemic for the economy and the
population (recovery growth)
creating conditions for
the continuation of
systemic reforms
identification of new
opportunities and reserves that
can give an additional impetus
to the development of the
economy (“growth points”)
STAGE I – stabilization and recovery
growth until the end of 2020
STAGE II – continuation of systemic reforms that will
ensure stable economic growth rates of 5.0-5.5% from
2021
In 2021, taking into account measures to stabilize the macroeconomic situation and
the continuation of systemic structural reforms, economic growth is expected to recover
to the level of 5.1%. At the same time, it is taken into account that in the conditions of the
ongoing pandemic, uncertainty remains high.
Quarantine restrictions had a negative impact on all sectors of the economy by
reducing their growth rates (table 3). In 2021–2023, a gradual recovery in the growth
rates of economic sectors to pre-crisis values is predicted.
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Table 3
According to the main directions of the country’s monetary policy for 2021, which were
developed by the Central Bank, the main task of the regulator is to achieve inflation targets below 10%
in 2021 and 5% in 2023.
Taking into account the degree of uncertainty and the specifics of the channels of influence,
forecasts
of
macroeconomic
development
were
developed
on
the
basis
of
3 different scenarios – the main one (providing for a gradual recovery of the economy), optimistic
(faster recovery) and risky (slower recovery).
Meanwhile, on December 6, S&P Global Ratings confirmed the long-term and short-term
sovereign credit ratings of the Republic of Uzbekistan for obligations in foreign and national currency
at the level of “BB-/B”. The outlook for the ratings remains “Negative”.
The “Negative” forecast reflects the possibility that the external debt and the debt of the
expanded government of Uzbekistan may continue to increase rapidly.
S&P Global Ratings notes that the agency may downgrade the ratings in the next
12 months if it believes that the rapid growth of the government’s external debt, observed in recent
years, will not slowdown in accordance with the agency’s expectations, for example, if the current
investment needs lead to a larger than expected budget deficit or external deficit .
According to the results of the first quarter, the economy of Uzbekistan is returning to the
trajectory of steady growth. The gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3% in the first three
months of 2021.
In general, Uzbekistan’s macroeconomic policy is actively striving to return to pre-crisis
dynamics. GDP increased by 3% in the first three months of 2021. The main element of inflation
remains the growth of prices for food products-they increased by 3.1% by December 2020. The growth
of prices for non-food products remained at the level of 1.7%, but prices for services grew at a faster
pace than in the same period last year – by 2.7% in the first three months of this year against 1.5% for
the same period last year. According to the results of the first quarter, the economic development of
Uzbekistan continued to be affected by the global crisis, which is reflected in a slowdown in the growth
GDP, trillion sums; 2019;
510,1
GDP, trillion sums; 2020;
580,2
GDP, trillion sums; 2021
(prediction); 688,9
GDP, trillion sums; 2022
(prediction); 843,2
GDP, trillion sums; 2023
(prediction); 985,4
GDP growth, in
%; 2019; 5,8
GDP growth,
in %; 2020;
1,6
GDP growth, in
%; 2021
(prediction);
5,1
GDP growth, in
%; 2022
(prediction);
5,8
GDP
growth, in
%; 2023
(predictio
n); 5,4
GDP growth rates
GDP, trillion sums
GDP growth, in %
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rates of certain sectors of the economy compared to the first quarter of last year, a decline in foreign
trade (which is largely due to the cessation of gold exports).
From the above-mentioned directions for the optimal distribution of economic resources, it can
be noted that the main attention is paid to animal husbandry, fish farming, the development of
silkworms, fruit and vegetable growing, as well as the allocation of additional funds to prevent a crisis
during a pandemic.
Also, the current situation with the pandemic in Uzbekistan may affect the amount of public
debt, and at the same time, the government’s measures in such situations will show how well the
country was prepared for emergency situations.
CONCLUSION
Thus, the study showed that macroeconomic policy plays an important role in the country’s
economy. The article analyzes the macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2019–
2023 and the impact of the digitalization of the economy in the macroeconomic policy of the state. In
general, Uzbekistan’s macroeconomic policy is actively striving to return to pre-crisis dynamics. GDP
increased by 3% in the first three months of 2021. All large-scale and relevant projects and tasks
through the digitalization of the economy are undoubtedly important for the socio-economic
development of Uzbekistan in the coming years, because the future of our country is inextricably linked
with the widespread introduction and use of digital technologies. Also, the measures taken by the
government of the Republic of Uzbekistan during the pandemic to optimally solve problems with
macroeconomic policy showed how the state was prepared for emergency situations. One of the
solutions to this macroeconomic policy of the state is to achieve a reorientation of the policy of all
branches of economic policy in the country for the purpose of economic recovery, quantitative
stimulation of economic growth, and the infusion of substantial state capital into the market. And all the
goals such as “inflation targeting”, “money supply regulation” should take a back seat. Everything that
works to revive the economy should be welcomed. The Ministry of Economic Development and
Poverty Reduction should play a leading role in the development and implementation of economic
policy.
REFERENCES:
1.
Resolution of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Sh. Mirziyoyev
“On measures for the widespread introduction of the digital economy and e-government” dated April
28, 2021 № RP-4699. https://lex.uz/docs/4800661.
2.
Resolution of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Sh. Mirziyoyev “On measures for the
widespread introduction of digital technologies in the city of Tashkent” dated March 17, 2020 № RP-
4642. https://lex.uz/ru/docs/4767518.
3.
Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Sh. Mirziyoyev dated 18.05.2020 № DP-
5996. https://lex.uz/docs/4815482.
4.
Message of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Sh. Mirziyoyev to the
OliyMajlishttps://uza.uz/ru/posts/poslanie-prezidenta-respubliki-uzbekistan-shavkata-mirziyoeva-
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Budgetforcitizens 2021 – Tashkent – 2021.
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N. Gregory Mankiw Macroeconomics: eighth edition, Harvard University – United States of
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