Жамият ва инновациялар –
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Miscalculations of the military strategy of the United States and
its NATO allies to “democratize” Afghanistan
Sh. SHUKUROV
1
Military Academy General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces
ARTICLE INFO
ABSTRACT
Article history:
Received June 2021
Received in revised form
20 June 2021
Accepted 15 July 2021
Available online
15 August 2021
The Afghan conflict, which has lasted for more than three
decades, at the turn of 2011–2012 went through a new cycle of
its evolution. In June 2011, it was announced that the withdrawal
from countries of American troops and at the same time – about
the start of direct US talks with the Taliban. Observers agreed
that the complete conclusion US troops in 2014 will not end
conflict, but can contribute to its new round. Few assumed that
in the mid-1970s began one of the longest-running and most
internationalized modern regional conflicts. By its complexity it
is comparable to the situation on the Korean Peninsula and the
Middle East conflict. It is noteworthy that none of external
participants in the Afghan situation could not completely turn
off, even with the withdrawal of troops, Afghanistan gave rise to
and showed the limits for many international endeavors.
2181-1415/© 2021 in Science LLC.
This is an open access article under the Attribution 4.0 International
(CC BY 4.0) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.ru)
Keywords:
The Afghan Ministry of
Defense,
American troops from
Afghanistan,
Joe Biden administration,
NATO Secretary General
Jens Stoltenberg,
“Afghanistan Study Group”,
international radical groups,
US strategy,
Andrey Serenko.
AQSHning harbiy strategiyasi va NATO ittifoqchilari Afg‘onistonni
“demokratlashtirish” bo‘yicha noto‘g‘ri hisob-kitoblari
ANNOTATSIYA
Kalit so‘zlar:
Afg‘oniston Mudofaa
vazirligi,
Afg‘onistondagi Amerika
qo‘shinlari,
Jo Bayden ma’muriyati,
NATO Bosh kotibi Yens
Stoltenberg,
O‘ttiz yildan oshiq davom etgan afg‘on mojarosi 2011–
2012-yillar oxirida o‘z evolyutsiyasining yangi tsiklidan o‘tdi.
2011-yil iyun oyida Amerika qo‘shinlarining mamlakatdan
chiqarilishi va shu bilan birga – AQShning Tolibon bilan
to‘g‘ridan-to‘g‘ri muzokaralari boshlanishi haqida e’lon qilindi.
Kuzatuvchilar AQSh qo‘shinlarining 2014-yildagi to‘liq xulosasi
mojaroni tugatmaydi, balki uning yangi bosqichiga o‘z hissasini
qo‘shishi mumkin, degan fikrga kelishdi. 70-yillarning o‘rtalarida
1
Lieutenant Colonel, Adjunct of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian
Federation, Moscow, Russia.
Еmail: zayniyev.temur@bk.ru.
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“Afg‘onistonni o‘rganish
guruhi”,
xalqaro radikal guruhlar,
AQSh strategiyasi,
Andrey Serenko.
eng uzoq davom etadigan va xalqaro miqyosdagi zamonaviy
mintaqaviy to‘qnashuvlardan biri boshlangan deb o‘ylaydiganlar
kam. Murakkabligi bilan uni Koreya yarim orolidagi vaziyat va
Yaqin Sharqdagi mojaro bilan solishtirish mumkin. Shunisi
e’tiborga loyiqki, Afg‘oniston vaziyatining tashqi ishtirok-
chilarining hech biri to‘liq o‘chira olmadi, hatto qo‘shinlar olib
ketilsa ham, Afg‘oniston ko‘plab xalqaro urinishlarning chegara-
larini ko‘rsatdi.
Просчеты военной стратегии США и их союзников по НАТО
на «демократизацию» Афганистана
АННОТАЦИЯ
Ключевые слова:
Министерство обороны
Афганистана,
американские войска в
Афганистане,
администрация
Джо Байдена,
генеральный секретарь
НАТО Йенс Столтенберг,
«Группа изучения
Афганистана»,
международные
радикальные
группировки,
стратегия США,
Андрей Серенко.
Афганский конфликт, длившийся более трех десятилетий, на
рубеже 2011–2012 годов прошел новый цикл своего развития. В
июне 2011 года было объявлено о выводе из страны
американских войск и одновременно – о начале прямых
переговоров США с талибами. Наблюдатели сошлись во мнении,
что полное завершение войск США в 2014 году не положит конец
конфликту, но может способствовать его новому витку. Мало
кто предполагал, что в середине 1970-х начался один из самых
продолжительных и интернационализированных современных
региональных конфликтов. По своей сложности она
сопоставима с ситуацией на Корейском полуострове и
ближневосточным конфликтом. Примечательно, что ни один из
внешних участников афганской ситуации не смог полностью
отключить, даже с выводом войск, Афганистан породил и
показал пределы для многих международных усилий.
The United States has already withdrawn a third of its forces from Afghanistan. This
was reported by the Central Command of the country.
“According to US Central Command estimates, we have completed 30 to 44% of the
entire withdrawal process”, the agency said in a statement. The Central Committee
clarified that about 300 cargo planes with materials were removed from Afghanistan, and
13 thousand pieces of equipment for disposal were transferred to the Logistics Agency of
the Ministry of Defense. In addition, the United States has officially transferred six facilities
to the Afghan Ministry of Defense.
World The United States withdrew a third of the contingent from Afghanistan The
United States has already withdrawn a third of its military contingent from Afghanistan.
This was reported by the Central Command of the country. “According to US Central
Command estimates, we have completed 30 to 44% of the total the withdrawal process,
“the ministry said in a statement. The Central Committee clarified that about 300 cargo
planes with materials were removed from Afghanistan, and 13 thousand pieces of
equipment for disposal were transferred to the Logistics Agency of the Ministry of Defense.
In addition, the United States has officially transferred six facilities to the Afghan Ministry
of Defense. Advertising on Gazeta.uz In mid-April, US President Joe Biden announced the
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withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. The process is planned will complete by
9/11 – the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York.
The Wall Street Journal previously wrote that the United States is considering
options for deploying troops and military equipment withdrawn from Afghanistan in
Central Asia or the Middle East. In mid-May, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev
noted the importance of efforts to maintain peace in Afghanistan, given the withdrawal of
US troops. “What will life be like thanks to our efforts after the withdrawal of US troops
and their NATO allies? – asked Shavkat Mirziyoyev. – If other states think about it, being
far away, for us it is a neighbor. If, God forbid, any conflict breaks out on the other side of
the bridge, how will this affect all our efforts made? With this in mind, we must work daily
to keep the peace. We must always be ready for the most difficult conditions, and if we can
be ready, we will never lose”, he stressed.
After the Joe Biden administration came to power in the United States, NATO is
changing its strategy in Afghanistan. How will this change affect the TAPI project, the
republics of Central Asia, and what does Pakistan have to do with it? NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg on February 4 demanded that the Taliban break with al-Qaeda
and end the violence. On the same day, the “Afghanistan Study Group”, created at the
initiative of the US Congress, proposed the new American administration to urgently
resume negotiations with the Taliban on postponing the withdrawal of US troops from
Afghanistan. The day before, on February 3, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas voiced
the position of Germany: the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan depends on
progress in the inter-Afghan negotiations, and is not tied to a specific date.
And the NATO press service clarified that until the beginning of May there will be no
reduction in the military contingent in Afghanistan – and this is about 10 thousand people
– there will be no reduction. Joe Biden’s Afghan strategy and the Heiko Mas formula All of
this indicates that the United States and NATO intend to abandon Donald Trump’s plan to
withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by early May 2021. According to the agreement
reached earlier by his special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad with representatives
of the Taliban in Doha, after that peace talks were to begin with the official government in
Kabul. The Taliban interpreted the February news as a refusal of the West from an
agreement with them and announced that they would continue their armed struggle
against foreign occupation.
Andrei Serenko, an employee of the Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan
(CISA), explains that the formula voiced by Heiko Maas, most likely, will be the essence of
the US strategy under Joe Biden. “If earlier the withdrawal of troops was first supposed,
and then the Taliban entered into negotiations with official Kabul, now, first, the Taliban
are invited to agree on peace with the government, and only then the withdrawal of NATO
troops will begin”, he says. According to the expert, this change in strategy decisively
affects the approach countries of Central Asia towards settlement in a neighboring state.
Central Asia after the change of the negotiating paradigm with the Taliban In recent
years, all the republics of the region, with varying degrees of intensity, have been building
their relations with the Taliban. “Ashgabat offered its own negotiating platform, but under
the auspices of the UN. Tashkent conducted its negotiations with the Taliban and tried to
help Kabul and the Taliban come to terms”, recalls Taalatbe, the former director of the
UN special political mission in Afghanistan to Masadykov.
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The countries of Central Asia, based on their own security interests, want
stabilization in Afghanistan: there are training camps and commanders of several
international radical groups who dream of overthrowing secular governments in all these
countries. In addition, the Taliban are hindering the implementation of large economic
projects, be it the TAPI gas pipeline or the railway from Uzbekistan through Afghanistan
to Pakistan to the Indian Ocean.
TAPI without the Taliban
“It is unlikely that these projects will be feasible until the conflict in Afghanistan is
resolved”, Masadykov says. However, in his assessment, NATO’s decision itself not to rush
to withdraw from Afghanistan does not contribute to this settlement.
“Large states too often act in Afghanistan depending on their own political calendar,
and not in the name of solving its internal problems. It is important for the countries of the
region that Afghanistan does not boil, that there are no terrorist groups there. But the very
presence of NATO has long been a trigger of unrest: some groups receive weapons from
foreigners, some – money, intelligence games are being played, proxy wars between
groups loyal to certain external participants, and so on further”, – explains the interlocutor
DW.
Andrey Serenko assesses the situation differently. The negotiation process with the
Taliban is an illusion; they are not going to share power with anyone in Afghanistan and
intend to take it by force in order to build a state according to the model of an Islamic
emirate. “It is unlikely that the countries of the region would be delighted with this project.
Now they need to again be more oriented towards NATO, the role of which will increase,
as well as the role of the United States”, says the TsISA expert. As for transport projects
with the participation of Afghanistan, they cannot be solved without the Taliban, he agrees.
“But even with the Trump agreement with the Taliban, I did not see the best prospects for
these projects, since the civil war in Afghanistan was not annulled by this agreement”,
Andrei Serenko emphasizes. Central Asia in search of stability and the role of Pakistan “And
in Dushanbe, and in Nur-Sultan, and in Tashkent, and Ashgabat, and in Bishkek, they will
breathe a sigh of relief when they learn that the United States will not suddenly leave
Afghanistan. Contacts in these capitals with the Taliban will remain – just in case. But there
they understand that if something really needs to be negotiated with the Taliban, then for
this it is necessary to go to Islamabad, to the command of the army and intelligence, which
are now Taliban operators”, explains the TsISA expert.
The special services of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan have
stable contacts with colleagues in Pakistan. “Islamabad is interested in activity in Central
Asia, including for countering Indian projects and attempts by Indian special services to
build their communications in the region. But I still don’t see any progress beyond these
contacts”, says DW’s interlocutor. According to him, this is due to the fact that Pakistan is
now facing an economic collapse.
During the last months, there have been the offices of the Bank of Pakistan were
closed, including the largest representative office in Ashgabat, through which the financing
of the TAPI project went. “In this context, the revision of the US strategy is a bad sign for
Islamabad. We are talking about the possible introduction of economic sanctions by the
US, so that Pakistan would more intensively contribute to” forcing the Taliban “to peace”,
says Serenko. On the one hand, sanctions can induce the Taliban to be more compliant, but,
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on the other hand, they can reduce the possibilities of Islamabad on participation in major
projects related to Central Asia.
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