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Understanding the impacts of climate change on the
availability of water resources in Central Asia
Nizomiddin RAJABBOEV
1
National Agency for Social Protection under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan
ARTICLE INFO
ABSTRACT
Article history:
Received October 2024
Received in revised form
15 November 2024
Accepted 25 November 2024
Available online
25 December 2024
The water crisis is a major problem in Central Asia which
consists of five countries
–
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The Central Asian region has
only two major rivers that provide water resources to the
people in the region, and there has been a struggle among the
people for the adequate distribution of water for various
purposes. It is seen that two rivers are not adequate in meeting
the requirements of people due to the fact that the upstream
countries have built dams to harness electric power, which
restricts the movement of the rivers into the downstream
countries. The fact that global warming as a climatic condition is
causing a reduction in the availability of water in the area
contributes further to accelerating the negative situation. There
has been an rapid increase in the average temperature of the
region in the past three to four decades, which has increased
the loss of the overall water content in the region due to
increased evaporation and reduced precipitation. Therefore, the
political environment between the states has been one of the
negative implications because people are unable to obtain the
necessary water for survival. Political conflict needs to be
resolved with regard to water to ensure an adequate water
supply.
2181-
1415/©
2024 in Science LLC.
https://doi.org/10.47689/2181-1415-vol5-iss12/S-pp
This is an open access article under the Attribution 4.0 International
(CC BY 4.0) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.ru)
Keywords:
transboundary cooperation,
sustainable development,
water crisis,
global warming,
evaporation and
precipitation.
1
Leading Specialist, National Agency for Social Protection under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
E-mail: nizom98@gmail.com
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Markaziy Osiyoda iqlim o‘zgarishining suv resurslari
ta’minotiga ta’sirini tushunish
ANNOTATSIYA
Kalit so‘zlar
:
transchegaraviy hamkorlik,
barqaror taraqqiyot,
suv tanqisligi,
global isish,
suv bug‘lanishi va
yog‘ingarchilik
Markaziy Osiyo beshta davlatdan
–
Qozog‘iston, Qirg‘iziston,
Tojikiston, Turkmaniston va O‘zbekistondan iborat bo‘lib,
mintaqada suv inqirozi katta muammo hisoblanadi. Markaziy
Osiyo hududida aholining suv bilan ta’minlanishini ta’minlovchi
atigi ikkita yirik daryo mavjud bo‘lib, suvning turli maqsadlar
uchun adolat
li taqsimlanishi borasida mamlakatlar o‘rtasida
ziddiyatlar kuzatilmoqda. Ikkita daryo aholining ehtiyojlarini
qondirish uchun yetarli emas, chunki yuqori oqimdagi davlatlar
elektr quvvatini ishlab chiqarish maqsadida to‘g‘onlar qurib,
daryolarning quyi oqimdagi davlatlarga oqimini cheklab
qo‘yishgan. Iqlimiy sharoit sifatida global isish hududda suv
resurslarining kamayishiga olib kelayotgani vaziyatni yanada
yomonlashtirmoqda. So‘nggi uch
-
to‘rt o‘n yillikda mintaqada
o‘rtacha harorat tezda oshib bormoqda,
bu esa bug‘lanishning
kuchayishi va yog‘ingarchilikning kamayishi tufayli umumiy suv
miqdorining yo‘qolishiga olib kelmoqda. Natijada, davlatlar
o‘rtasidagi siyosiy muhit ham yomonlashmoqda, chunki
odamlar tirikchilik uchun zarur bo‘lgan suvni ololmayapti
. Suv
bilan bog‘liq siyosiy nizolarni hal qilish va yetarli suv
ta’minotini ta’minlash zarur.
Понимание воздействия изменения климата на
доступность водных ресурсов в Центральной Азии
АННОТАЦИЯ
Ключевые слова:
трансграничное
сотрудничество,
устойчивое развитие,
водный кризис,
глобальное потепление,
испарение и выпадение
осадков
.
Водный кризис является серьёзной проблемой в
Центральной Азии, которая состоит из пяти стран –
Казахстана, Кыргызстана, Таджикистана, Туркменистана и
Узбекистана. В регионе Центральной Азии имеются всего
две крупные реки, которые обеспечивают водными
ресурсами население, и между странами возникают споры
по поводу справедливого распределения воды для
различных нужд. Этих двух рек недостаточно для
удовлетворения потребностей людей, поскольку страны,
расположенные в верховьях, построили плотины для
выработки электроэнергии, что ограничивает поступление
воды в страны, расположенные ниже по течению.
Дополнительным усугубляющим фактором является
глобальное потепление, которое снижает доступность
водных ресурсов в регионе. За последние три
-
четыре
десятилетия средняя температура в регионе значительно
повысилась, что привело к увеличению потерь общего
объёма воды из
-
за усиленного испарения и уменьшения
количества
осадков. В результате политическая обстановка
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между странами обострилась, поскольку население не
может получить необходимую для выживания воду.
Политические конфликты по вопросам водных ресурсов
необходимо решить для обеспечения достаточного
водоснабжения
.
OVERVIEW OF THE TOPIC
Climate change is a major concern that the world faces as a whole (United Nations,
2022). There has been a significant rise in the global temperature in the recent past due
to various reasons, and the causes and effects are very dynamic and connected in many
ways. Numerous causes for climate change have been identified across the world, along
with associated consequences. Generally, studies consider the effects of climate change in
important areas like the Americas, Europe, and so on, but very little research focuses on
the effects of climate change that are observed in areas like central Asia. With the lack of
sufficient research in the area comes the necessity of carrying out an adequate amount of
research into the conditions of the environment in these areas with regard to various
elements and understanding how climate change has affected the region.
This report aims to understand how the region of central Asia is experiencing
issues related to water due to climate change, as well as the water politics that exists in
the region between various agencies (Britannica, 2006). The risks associated with the
water-related issues are also examined to understand if there are potential solutions to
the problems so that the people can have better access to water which is an essential
resource. Considering the fact that the states were once a part of the USSR and there
were no issues between them during that time with regard to power generation or water
supply for irrigation, and the government distributed the resources adequately, it stands
to argue that the political dissonance that exists currently is a major contributing factor
to the water crisis that exists in the states.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
It is necessary to understand the fact that the research being conducted is
secondary research which accumulates and analyses the information from previous
research. It forms an essential part of the research process. The main objectives of the
process are as follows:
▪
to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on the region of Central
Asia with regard to water resources
▪
to understand the impact that the region has on the contributing factors to
climate change
▪
to understand the contribution of water politics in escalating the negative
aspects of the scenario
▪
analyse the risks that are associated with the region’s water r
esources and
identify potential solutions
The research goals need to be satisfied in order to establish what factors have been
identified as potential risks in the area. A brief review of literature is conducted to
understand the geographical conditions that exist in Central Asia and how the climatic
conditions affect the availability of water resources in the area. Further, the key themes
of water shortage and the underlying causes and their effects are analysed to have a
better idea of the overall condition of water politics in the region (Zakhirova, 2013). The
research hopes to fulfil a gap that connects both environmental and anthropogenic
causes that have caused the people in these countries to experience a severe shortage in
water resources for their use.
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LITERATURE REVIEW
The central region of Asia extends from the Caspian Sea to the Chinese border
laterally and longitudinally by Russia in the north, and the countries of Iran, Afghanistan,
and China cover the region in the south. So, essentially, the place is mostly landlocked on
three sides. The region that is considered central Asia consists of five countries
–
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The geographical
features of the region indicate that there is very little precipitation in the form of rain,
evident from the fact that almost 60% of the region is covered in desert, and the rest is
covered with vast steppes grasslands (Britannica, 2006).
There are two major rivers in the region
–
the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya rivers,
which provide water for most purposes of the people. The rivers course through the
countries and drain into the Aral Sea (Britannica, 2006). Considering the fact that there
are only two rivers that serve the needs of the people and that there is very little
precipitation on an annual basis, the climatic conditions in these countries are very dry
for the most part of the year. This has led to a very uneven distribution of population in
these countries. Most populated areas are near the foothills of the mountains and by the
river banks, and the arid deserts and grasslands generally have very little to no
population.
CONTRIBUTION OF CENTRAL ASIA TOWARDS CLIMATIC WORSENING
Understanding the contributions of the region in terms of emission of greenhouse
gases and other associated factors is important to observe the consequences and the
proportionality of the consequences. In consideration of how much CO2 is being emitted
by the countries, the effect of central Asia is moderately high, as the countries of
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan rank in the top 50 and the others rank in the top 100.
Figure 1: Global emission of CO2 nationwide
Source: (Global Carbon Atlas, 2022)
However, it has been observed that there has been a significant decrease in per-
capita emissions in Europe and Central Asia in recent years, which is a result of the
economic contraction that is observed in the region (Karakaya and Özçağ, 2005).
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The collapse of the USSR and the states becoming republics is the factor behind the
economic contraction. However, the cumulative effects of whatever events have
happened in the region until now have had significant negative impacts on the
environment. One of the main precedents to this observation is the fact that the Aral Sea,
which is where the rivers flow in the region drain, has been suffering negative impacts
from human activities for a very long time (Karakaya and Özçağ, 2005). The population
growth has been high in the region as well. It is true that the population is limited to
certain areas, but the rate of growth being high plays an important role in increasing the
negative effects on the environment (Karakaya and Özçağ, 2005). Technology has also
been increasing in the region to some extent and is also being considered a valid
contributor to ecological harm in the area.
KEY THEMES IDENTIFIED
The region of central Asia has been suffering the negative impacts of climate
change in the recent decades considerably. When considering the change in climatic
conditions, it is observed that the region has undergone a rise in temperature of 0. 36º to
0.42º C increase every decade since the 1970s, which is a drastic change (Hu et al., 2014).
Studies conducted have indicated that there has been a reduction in the overall water
content that is available in the region for the use of people.
For instance, the effective water content in the region takes into account the
precipitation, any amount of snow on the mountains, the water in the rivers, and any
small water bodies that exist in the region. Typically, the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea are
disregarded as they are drains for the water content. The studies conducted by various
researchers and organisations indicate that the effects of climate change are high in the
central Asian region (Hu et al., 2014). The glacial snow, which is present in the mountain
tops perennially, has begun to melt, which is a severely negative consequence. Glacial
snow is freshwater storage that, when melted, flows into the rivers and becomes saline
and useless for human consumption. Glacial snow melting also effectively contributes to
the reduction in the overall content of water in the region.
The process of water in the region becoming low can be explained in more detail.
Essentially, a region has a water cycle
–
where water changes form but essentially stays
in the same region. However, this is the ideal condition, which implies that the water that
rises into the sky due to evaporation and transpiration gets converted into clouds and
then precipitates back in the region, thereby maintaining the same amount of water
overall. However, in recent years, the rate of evaporation of water has been observed to
be high, but the precipitation is very low, which implies that the evaporated water is
getting lost from the region due to atmospheric conditions. The reduced precipitation,
along with the increased evaporation, implies that there is a substantial reduction in the
overall content of water in the area.
This is, in turn leading to further negative consequences. The reduction in water in
the region implies that the river basins, which should essentially have adequate water
flowing, are becoming dried. Therefore, the dried soil is saline in nature and is unsuitable
for agriculture. An essential source of food and revenue for people is getting destroyed
due to the harmful effects of climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2022). It is necessary to understand that the increase in the global temperature
due to the greenhouse effect is causing harm to human life as well. With minimal water
being available and the climate of the region being arid, the possibility of a person
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becoming dehydrated is very high. One factor that needs to be considered critically is the
fact that the climatic conditions are not the only parameters that are to blame for the
harsh experience that people in the region undergo with regard to water. Water politics
play an important role as well.
THE MAIN ISSUES
Water and power have become the core concepts of political uneasiness in the
region to a great extent. The fact is, the states that currently exist split from the USSR
decades ago, and since then, there has been a power struggle and political uneasiness in
the region, and the water crisis has increased in magnitude (Karakaya and Özçağ, 2005).
The fact that there is glacial melt can potentially increase the amount of water available
for use considerably, as studies indicate that there may be up to a 40% increase in water
availability if the glaciers melt. On short-term bases, the region is extremely prone to
situations of drought, and the most vulnerable countries in the region are Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan (Change, 2022).
The aspect of water politics increases, or rather, comes into the picture mainly
because of the fact that since the splitting of the USSR, the region has had a drastic change
in the general circumstances that exist (International Crisis Group, 2002). For one, the
irrigation system of the region has decayed considerably, which means that the system is
faulty, and almost half of the water in the region which is directed towards irrigation
does not make it to the point of utilisation.
Water politics also mainly exists due to the fact that the increased population is
causing an increased demand for water and electricity. A large amount of electricity
generated by these states comes from hydel power (Change, 2022). Often, this means that
the amount of water held by the dams in one country restricts the amount of water
flowing into the other countries. This has been a constant issue between the states for a
long time. Before splitting, under the USSR, all the resources were equally distributed as
per the necessity, and when the nations got separated, the issues began to rise as each
country tried to have more control over the resources than the others (International
Crisis Group, 2002).
This is mainly an issue that is observed in the downstream countries
–
Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This is due to the fact that these states are more
agriculturally viable than the other two states, and they grow cotton and other crops that
need plenty of water to grow well, compensating for the arid nature of the environment
(Change, 2022). The upstream countries are leaning more towards control of water
resources for generating electricity as agriculture is not a viable option for the people.
A critical example of the tussle that exists in the countries of Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan. Tajikistan faces an energy crisis and, therefore, is trying to control the water
level in the Rogun Hydropower Plant Project, which provides the energy required for the
people (European Parliament, 2015). However, this causes a water crisis for the people in
Uzbekistan as the water is necessary for agriculture which the Uzbek people engage in on
a higher level.
THE NECESSITY OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Considering the fact that the water crisis is in the situation where the acceleration
of the crisis is imminent has risen from human aspects like politics and power implies
that there is a need to reconsider the political aspects that exist and reform the
relationships between the countries to the extent that supports growth and development
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rather than potential conflict. Looking at history, it can be easily seen that there was
a very little struggle in the central Asian region when these states were under the rule of
the USSR (International Crisis Group, 2002). Mutual understanding and diplomacy are
needed to solve these issues.
CONCLUSION
The climatic effects and the human effects in the central Asian region have caused
a drastic negative impact on the water resources in the region. There is increased
evaporation and reduced precipitation that is causing the soil to go saline and arid,
unviable for agriculture. There are two rivers which are controlled by the countries in the
upstream region for power generation, which limits the water for irrigation in the
downstream region of the rivers. Overall, climate change, which has caused global
warming, and the human aspects are causing a severe imbalance in the environment and
political struggle as well. It is possible that a war over water is imminent in the central
Asian region.
It is necessary to consider the fact that there were no issues that existed during the
time the states were under the USSR when resources were appropriately distributed, and
there was no conflict, which indicates that this can be regained if there is proper
diplomacy among the states. A mutual agreement can help in solving the main issues that
exist with regard to water resources. It is also necessary to implement laws that control
human activities in a way that further decreases the consumption of fuels that contribute
to the carbon emission levels in the country.
REFERENCES:
1.
Britannica,
2006.
Central
Asia.
[Online]
Available
at:
https://www.britannica.com/place/Central-Asia [Accessed May 2022].
2.
European Parliament, 2015. Water disputes in Central Asia: Rising tension
threatens regional stability. [Online] Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/
thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2015)571303 [Accessed May 2022].
3.
Global Carbon Atlas, 2022. Global Carbon Atlas: Emissions. [Online] Available at:
http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions [Accessed May 2022].
4.
Hu, Z., Zhang, C., Hu, Q. & Tian, H., 2014. Temperature Changes in Central Asia
from 1979 to 2011 Based on Multiple Datasets. Journal of Climate, 27(3), p. 1143
–
1167.
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022. Climate Change 2022:
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International Crisis Group, 2002. Central Asia: Water and Conflict. [Online]
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