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FEATURES OF EXPRESS ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS
Yusufov Isfandiyor
Teacher of Tashkent State University of Economics
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11118214
In addition to the fundamental financial and economic analysis of
investment projects, there are several other types of this analysis.
Strategic analysis of the project, carried out by the project initiator and
reflected in the project business plan, consists of analyzing the compliance of the
project goals with the development strategy of the company (industry, region,
country) that is the initiator or executor of the project. The strategic analysis of
the project, carried out by a bank (or other financial institution) and the
conclusion reflected in its conclusion about the advisability of the bank’s
participation in financing the project, consists of analyzing the compliance of the
project’s goals with the development strategy of the initiating company and the
strategy and investment policy of the bank itself. In particular, the strategic
analysis of the project performed by the development bank must take into
account the compliance of the project with the development strategy of the
industry or region of the project, as well as the strategic priorities (industry and
regional) of the bank’s investment activities over the planning horizon under
consideration [1].
During the strategic analysis, strategic risks of the project are also
identified, which may be associated with changes in the external environment of
the project, changes in legislation, and the development strategy of a particular
industry (region). Therefore, analysis of the external environment
(macroeconomic conditions, regional environment, analysis of possible changes
in legislation) is an integral part of the strategic analysis for large investment
projects. For small local projects necessary for the development of a specific
company, an analysis of the external environment can be performed as part of
the institutional analysis of the project.
Technical analysis of the project is carried out with the aim of assessing
the technical feasibility of the project and assessing its innovative potential. The
feasibility assessment of the project is carried out in order to determine the
feasibility of the scientific, design and technological solutions included in the
project, the availability of appropriate foreign or domestic analogues of the
products that will be produced as a result of the project, its competitiveness in
the domestic and foreign markets.
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A commercial analysis of the project is carried out in order to determine
the commercial risks of the project associated with the forecast of sales volumes,
the price of manufactured products (services), the prices and volumes of
products (services) purchased from suppliers, and the reliability of
counterparties.
The most important aspect of commercial (or marketing) analysis is the
analysis of the competitiveness of products that will be released as a result of
the implementation of the project (services), its competitive advantages, export
potential, and changes in the competitiveness of products over time.
Institutional analysis is carried out in order to assess the impact on the
project of a set of internal and external factors accompanying the investment
project (analysis of the external and internal environment of the project).
Analysis of the external environment of the project includes an assessment of
changes in macroeconomic (country, regional) indicators affecting the project,
analysis of the legal aspects of the project [2].
When analyzing a project, it is necessary to distinguish between the
concepts of “risk” and “uncertainty”. Risk is of a probabilistic nature and is
characterized by the probability of not obtaining the planned effect (result) from
the implementation of the project or the probability of the occurrence of such
conditions that will lead to negative consequences for all or individual project
participants. Uncertainty is a characteristic of incompleteness and insufficient
quality (inaccuracy) of the initial and calculated information used to analyze the
project.
Project risk analysis includes qualitative and quantitative risk analysis.
The purpose of qualitative risk analysis is to identify, evaluate and identify key
project risks. The purpose of quantitative risk analysis is to determine the
degree of stability of the results of financial forecasts in relation to key project
risks [3].
The main method for assessing the degree of stability of the results of
financial forecasts in relation to the key risks of the project is to analyze the
sensitivity of the project and its performance indicators to deviations in the
values of the most significant factors and parameters of the project. Sensitivity
analysis is carried out on the basis of the financial model of the project (pre-
investment stage of the project life cycle), which provides a forecast of all cash
flows of the project, the balance sheet of the project company and an assessment
of the effectiveness of the project. At other stages of the project life cycle, the
financial model of the project is transformed into the financial model of the
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project company implementing the project. The project is considered
sustainable for the participant in question if, with possible changes in all the
main parameters of the project and its economic environment, it turns out to be
financially feasible and effective, and possible adverse consequences are
eliminated by measures provided for by the organizational and economic
mechanism of the project.
A project is considered unsustainable for the participant in question if,
with some fairly probable changes in its basic parameters or its economic
environment, it turns out to be financially unfeasible or leads to consequences
that do not meet the goals and interests of the participant [4].
Environmental analysis of a project has recently become increasingly
important. Taking into account the environmental consequences of the project is
an important condition for assessing the social effectiveness of the project. The
purpose of the environmental analysis of the project is to assess the impact of
the project on the environment and human living conditions. The analysis of the
environmental impacts of the project is carried out by checking the availability
of valid permits for the financing and implementation of the project, issued by
authorized bodies in the field of state environmental assessment and state
examination of project documentation.
And finally, the express analysis method, which is the first and one of the
most important at the stage of decision-making on project implementation. An
express analysis of the project can be carried out by the project initiator in order
to determine the feasibility of the project and the effectiveness of investments in
it before developing a detailed business plan for the project [5]. An express
analysis of a project by an investor includes a preliminary assessment of the
project, an assessment of the reliability of the business plan data presented by
the initiator (or executor) of the project in order to decide on the advisability of
a more in-depth analysis of the project if it complies with the bank’s investment
policy. Express analysis may not include a study of the organizational and legal
aspects of project implementation, the contractual framework, and social
aspects. The main emphasis in express analysis of a project is on assessing the
economic efficiency and technical feasibility of the project, which corresponds to
the investor’s investment policy [6].
The characteristic and advantageous features of express analysis are minimal
labor costs, quick results and, accordingly, quick decision-making on the general
feasibility of accepting the project and its further analysis. Without the use of
express analysis at the initial stage, further investments in a more in-depth and
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thorough study of the project using all the types and methods of analysis listed
above may turn out to be not only impractical, but also unprofitable for a
potential investor.
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