The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
158
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
TYPE
Original Research
PAGE NO.
158-174
10.37547/tajpslc/Volume07Issue05-18
OPEN ACCESS
SUBMITED
23 March 2025
ACCEPTED
19 April 2025
PUBLISHED
22 May 2025
VOLUME
Vol.07 Issue05 2025
CITATION
O.M.C. Osazuwa, Maryjane Y. Oghogho, Alfred A. Mboto, Godwin P.
Onogwu, & Okwudia Gogogwute. (2025). Climate change and civil conflict
in Africa: understanding the interconnections. The American Journal of
Political Science Law and Criminology, 7(05), 158
–
174.
https://doi.org/10.37547/tajpslc/Volume07Issue05-18
COPYRIGHT
© 2025 Original content from this work may be used under the terms
of the creative commons attributes 4.0 License.
Climate change and civil
conflict in Africa:
understanding the
interconnections
O.M.C. Osazuwa
City University, Cambodia
Maryjane Y. Oghogho
PhD Student, City University, Cambodia
Alfred A. Mboto
Ph.D. Student, City University, Cambodia
Godwin P. Onogwu
Ph.D. Student, City University, Cambodia
Okwudia Gogogwute
Ph.D. Student, City University, Cambodia
Abstract:
Climate change is a major catalyst for socio-
political instability, especially in Africa, where reliance
on natural resources for sustenance and economic
endeavours is substantial. This study investigates the
intricate relationship between climate change and civil
strife, emphasising how environmental stress intensifies
socio-economic inequalities and incites hostilities. The
research seeks to elucidate the mechanisms connecting
climate change to conflict and to provide ways for
mitigating these effects while enhancing resilience in
impacted communities. The study employs a qualitative
methodology, utilising secondary sources including
peer-reviewed articles, policy reports, and empirical
case studies. The Environmental Scarcity Theory and
Relative Deprivation Theory offer an analytical
framework that demonstrates how resource scarcity
and socio-political grievances lead to conflict. The data
concentrates on areas such as the Sahel and Lake Chad
Basin, where the effects of climate change are most
pronounced. Thematic and comparative analyses are
utilised to merge theoretical viewpoints with practical
examples. The research indicates that climate change
aggravates resource shortage, especially regarding
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
159
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
water and arable land, heightening confrontations
between competing factions such as farmers and
herders. Environmental displacement burdens host
communities, exacerbating tensions frequently
manipulated by rebel factions. Inadequate governance
and
institutional
inefficiencies
exacerbate
vulnerabilities, while climate-induced economic
disruptions disproportionately impact agriculture-
dependent populations. The results substantiate that
climate change considerably affects civil violence in
Africa. Addressing this nexus necessitates a
multifaceted
strategy,
encompassing
the
enhancement of governance, the promotion of
sustainable livelihoods, and the encouragement of
community-based
resource
management.
Recommendations encompass the augmentation of
climate adaptation strategies, the implementation of
early warning systems, and the procurement of
international assistance for at-risk areas. A
coordinated, region-specific strategy is crucial for risk
mitigation and the promotion of enduring socio-
political stability.
Keywords:
Climate change, civil conflict, resource
scarcity, governance and displacement.
Introduction:
Climate
change
is
increasingly
acknowledged as a major catalyst for socio-political
instability globally, especially in areas where natural
resources are essential for lives and economic stability.
Comprehending the relationships between climate
change and civil war in Africa is essential for
formulating effective social and environmental policies
that reduce risks and foster stability. Climate change
has become one of the most urgent global issues of the
21st century, significantly affecting ecosystems, the
economy,
and
human
societies.
The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
consistently emphasised the rising frequency and
severity of climate-related events, including droughts,
floods, and heatwaves, which disproportionately
impact
vulnerable
populations,
especially
in
developing areas such as Africa (Garfinkel, 2021; Xu et
al., 2020). These climatic changes threaten food and
water security while intensifying pre-existing socio-
economic disparities, resulting in increased tensions
and potential conflicts (Ehiane & Moyo, 2021; Steel et
al., 2022).
Africa, a continent marked by varied cultures,
economies,
and
political
environments,
has
experienced a notable increase in civil conflicts in
recent decades. Poverty, political instability, and
ethnic tensions have traditionally contributed to this
volatility (Chigudu, 2024; Kwame et al., 2022).
Nonetheless, the awareness of climate change as a
"threat multiplier" has intensified in recent years.
Environmental degradation and resource scarcity are
now seen as factors that can heighten competition for
limited resources, hence worsening existing grievances
and provoking conflicts (Bourekba, 2021; Depetris-
Chauvín & Özak, 2020). The Lake Chad region has
encountered a confluence of climate change effects and
socio-political factors that have exacerbated violent
extremism and conflict (Ehiane & Moyo, 2021).
Statement of Problem
Civil conflicts in Africa are frequently associated with the
struggle for scarce resources, including water, arable
land, and grazing areas. The Sahel region has become a
focal point for resource- driven conflicts due to
escalating aridity resulting from climate change (Xu,
2023). As temperatures increase and precipitation
patterns become erratic, conventional coping strategies
among people dependent on agriculture and animals
are challenged. The outcome is increased inter-
communal conflicts and, in certain cases, insurgencies
driven by discontent regarding resource disparities
(Müller, 2021). Despite these realities, there remains a
lack of comprehensive understanding of the specific
mechanisms linking climate change to civil conflict
within the African context (Ignatiev & Fediushin, 2024).
The significance of governance and institutional
capability is important to this discussion. Fragile state
institutions, inefficient resource allocation, and
insufficient conflict resolution strategies exacerbate the
effects of climate change, rendering impacted areas
more vulnerable to violence. Furthermore, climate-
induced migration exacerbates the socio-political
situation, as displaced groups frequently conflict with
host communities for scarce resources. The interaction
between environmental and socioeconomic elements
highlights the intricacy of tackling climate-induced
conflicts in Africa. The persistent data gaps and absence
of robust analytical frameworks further hinder the
formulation of targeted and sustainable solutions
(Walker, 2024). This seminar paper seeks to bridge this
knowledge gap by exploring the interconnections
between climate change and civil conflict in Africa.
Aim and Objectives
This research aims to examine the complex relationships
between climate change and civil conflict in Africa. This
study seeks to:
•
elucidate
the
mechanisms
connecting
environmental stressors to conflict in Africa.
•
analyze the interconnections between climate
change and civil conflict in Africa.
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
160
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
•
To propose strategies for mitigating climate-
related conflicts and fostering resilience.
Research Questions
This paper will examine several critical research
questions to accomplish this objective:
•
What are the specific mechanisms through
which environmental stressors contribute to social
unrest in Africa?
•
How do the interconnections between climate
change and civil conflict manifest across different
regions in Africa, and what are the primary socio-
political and environmental factors involved?
•
What strategies can be proposed to mitigate
climate-related conflicts in Africa, and how can these
strategies foster long-term resilience in affected
communities and regions?
Scope
This study is geographically concentrated on Africa,
particularly in areas where the interaction between
climate change and civil conflict is most evident. The
regions of focus are the Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, and
the Horn of Africa. The study examines farmer-herder
conflicts in the Sahel,
intensified by desertification and irregular rainfall
patterns. The Lake Chad Basin is analysed for its
distinct challenges concerning water resource
depletion, displacement, and insurgent activities. The
analysis in the Horn of Africa focuses on the
relationship between drought, food insecurity,
migration, and socio-political instability.
Significance of the Study
For its comprehensive assessment of climate change
and civil conflict in Africa, this work fills crucial gaps in
understanding and application. The research
illuminates how climate-induced environmental
stressors worsen socio-political instability, providing
crucial insights for evidence- based policymaking to
mitigate climate risks and strengthen vulnerable
regions. This study is essential for governments,
regional organisations, and international agencies
facing climate- conflict issues due to its policy
significance.
Governance reforms, community-based conflict
resolution, and climate-resilient solutions to reduce
resource-based conflicts are also stressed in the study.
Institutional capability and equitable resource
allocation reduce vulnerabilities and promote long-
term stability. These guidelines are essential for
practitioners and politicians seeking sustainable and
culturally responsive climate solutions.
The paper addresses the dearth of robust data and
analytical frameworks relating climate change to African
civil strife. It prepares stakeholders for future research
and helps them create better interventions by
synthesising literature and case studies. This
contribution is crucial to climate security discourse and
preparing vulnerable regions for climate change.
METHODOLOGY
This study employs a qualitative research design,
integrating secondary data from peer-reviewed
journals, policy reports, and case studies. The
Environmental Scarcity Theory and Relative Deprivation
Theory guide the analysis of how resource scarcity,
displacement, and socio-political grievances drive
conflict.
Data sources include the World Map, which provides
spatial insights into climate vulnerabilities such as
temperature shifts, rainfall variability, and resource
distribution, and the Armed Conflict Location and Event
Data (ACLED), which offers empirical evidence of
climate-conflict linkages. ACLED's conflict mapping is
cross-referenced with climate indicators, identifying
hotspots such as the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, where
environmental pressures exacerbate tensions.
Thematic content and comparative case analyses
integrate theoretical frameworks with empirical data,
enabling a nuanced understanding of the climate-
conflict nexus. This approach supports actionable
insights into the roles of governance, resource
management, and adaptation strategies in mitigating
climate-induced conflicts in Africa.
Conceptual Framework
Climate Change
Climate change refers to significant alterations in global
temperatures and weather patterns over time. It is
primarily driven by human activities, particularly the
emission of greenhouse gases. The consequences of
climate change include rising sea levels, increased
frequency of extreme weather events, and disruptions
to ecosystems and biodiversity.
Climate change refers to long-term changes in
temperature, precipitation patterns, and the frequency
or intensity of extreme weather events. Human
activities significantly influence these shifts, which have
extensive implications for natural ecosystems, socio-
economic structures, and global governance. The
ongoing and intensifying impacts of climate change
require a thorough examination of its attributes, causes,
and consequences, especially in vulnerable areas like
Africa (Hänsel, 2023; Singh & Aparna, 2024).
Climate change is characterised by increasing global
temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and a
rise in the frequency of extreme weather events. Global
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
161
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
average temperatures have increased consistently,
with evidence showing that the Earth's surface
temperature was roughly
1.1°C higher in 2020 compared to pre-industrial levels.
The projected warming trend is anticipated to exceed
1.5°C by the mid-21st century, contingent upon the
continuation of current emission trajectories (Singh &
Aparna, 2024).
Alterations in precipitation patterns represent a
significant indicator of climate change. Certain regions
undergo extended drought conditions, whereas others
encounter heightened monsoons or erratic rainfall
patterns, significantly impacting water availability and
agricultural output (Hänsel, 2023). The frequency and
intensity of extreme weather events, including
hurricanes, heatwaves, floods, and wildfires, have
markedly
increased,
resulting
in
substantial
environmental, economic, and social disruptions.
Climate change is primarily driven by anthropogenic
factors, including fossil fuel combustion, industrial
emissions, and deforestation. Greenhouse gas
emissions, specifically carbon dioxide (C
O₂), methane
(CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O), are primary factors in
global warming. The atmospheric concentration of
these gases has significantly increased since the
Industrial
Revolution, exacerbating the greenhouse effect and
retaining heat within the Earth's atmosphere (Hänsel,
2023).
Land-use changes, such as deforestation and
urbanisation, intensify climate change by diminishing
the
Earth's
ability
to
sequester
carbon.
Industrialisation and consumer-driven economic
activities contribute to resource depletion and
environmental degradation, thereby reinforcing the
multifaceted impacts of climate change (Singh &
Aparna, 2024).
Long-term changes linked to climate change impose
considerable pressure on socio-ecological systems.
Natural ecosystems exhibit significant vulnerability;
alterations in temperature and precipitation disrupt
biodiversity, result in habitat loss, and trigger species
migrations or extinctions. Rising ocean temperatures
have led to extensive coral bleaching, compromising
the stability and resilience of marine ecosystems
(Hänsel, 2023).
Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities in human
populations, especially in developing regions with
limited adaptive capacities. Communities dependent
on climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture and
fishing, encounter increased risks of livelihood
disruptions. Erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts
pose significant risks to food security, whereas extreme
weather events, including floods, compromise critical
infrastructure,
thereby
diminishing
economic
productivity and escalating recovery expenses (Singh &
Aparna, 2024).
Africa exhibits significant vulnerability to climate change
as a result of its geographical and socio- economic
conditions. The continent has undergone warming at
rates exceeding the global average, resulting in
significant effects on water resources, agriculture, and
biodiversity. Erratic rainfall patterns and extended
droughts have compromised food security, while
extreme weather events,
including floods and cyclones, have resulted in
significant displacement and economic losses (Hänsel,
2023).
Weak institutional frameworks and constrained
financial resources intensify Africa's susceptibility to
climate change. Regional initiatives, exemplified by the
African Union’s Agenda 2063,
underscore the
significance of fostering resilience via sustainable
development and climate adaptation.
Civil conflict
Civil conflict, defined by armed disputes occurring
within a state's boundaries, frequently includes non-
state actors like insurgent groups, militias, or criminal
networks (Ackah-Arthur, 2023). Conflicts often stem
from entrenched socio-political grievances, such as
ethnic tensions, economic inequalities, and political
exclusion (Ofori-Ayeh, 2022). Comprehending the
intricate dynamics of civil conflict is essential for
identifying its root causes and formulating sustainable
solutions.
Socio-political grievances, including the exclusion and
marginalisation of ethnic or religious groups, along with
governance failures, are critical factors contributing to
civil conflict (Ludvík, 2023). Economic inequality and
competition for resources, notably the resource curse,
intensify these tensions, as demonstrated by the
conflict in Nigeria's Niger Delta (Schneckener, 2022).
Weak state capacity and governance failures generate
power vacuums that non-state actors exploit,
exemplified by the situation in Somalia (Podder, 2024).
Identity politics, characterised by the mobilisation of
ethnic and religious identities for political advantage,
exacerbates civil conflict, especially in multi-ethnic
states (Ramirez, 2024). Non-state actors, including
ideologically motivated insurgents and profit-driven
criminal organisations,
significantly influence these conflicts by challenging
state authority and offering alternative governance
structures (Ojakorotu, 2024).
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
162
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
Civil conflicts result in severe humanitarian outcomes,
such as fatalities, displacement of populations, and the
destruction of infrastructure. The conflict in South
Sudan illustrates the significant humanitarian crisis
that arises from such situations (Hofmann et al., 2016).
Conflicts have significant economic repercussions,
hindering activities, deterring investment, and
exhausting resources, frequently resulting in persistent
poverty cycles, exemplified by the situation in the
Democratic Republic of Congo (Clément et al., 2021).
Conflicts politically undermine governance, erode trust
in state institutions, and foster conditions for further
instability,
thereby
complicating
sustainable
peacebuilding efforts (Sen, 2019).
The Nexus of Climate Change and Conflict
The intricate relationship between climate change and
conflict is shaped by a complex interplay of
environmental, social, and political factors. This nexus
is underpinned by three key mechanisms: climate-
induced
resource
scarcity,
displacement
and
migration-induced tensions, and weak governance
structures.
•
Climate-Induced Resource Scarcity
Climate change exacerbates the scarcity of essential
natural resources like water and arable land, which are
crucial for agriculture and sustenance. Rising
temperatures, desertification, and erratic rainfall
patterns disrupt agricultural production and deplete
water supplies, leading to heightened competition
over dwindling resources. In regions like the Sahel,
where livelihoods heavily rely on subsistence farming
and pastoralism, this scarcity intensifies disputes
between farmers and herders (Abu Hatab et al., 2024).
These conflicts often escalate into broader communal
violence, destabilizing entire regions and hindering
development.
•
Displacement and Migration-Induced Tensions
Climate-induced displacement and migration further
exacerbate intercommunal tensions. As environmental
conditions deteriorate, individuals and communities
are compelled to migrate in search of better living
conditions and access to resources. However, the
influx of displaced populations often strains the limited
resources of host communities, leading to competition
and, in some cases, violent confrontations. For
instance, the shrinking of Lake Chad has led to
significant migration in the Lake Chad Basin,
exacerbating tensions between local residents and
migrants (Sharifi et al., 2024). Moreover, displaced
populations, often marginalized and vulnerable, are
susceptible to recruitment by insurgent groups, who
exploit their grievances to fuel conflict.
•
Weak Governance and Institutional Failures
The role of governance in mediating or exacerbating
climate-related
conflicts
is
paramount.
Weak
governance structures and institutional failures amplify
vulnerabilities by failing to effectively address resource
disputes or provide equitable access to basic needs.
Corruption, inefficiency, and a lack of conflict resolution
mechanisms exacerbate tensions further. In many
African nations, governments struggle to implement
adaptive measures to address climate impacts, leaving
communities to navigate these challenges without
adequate support (Troise et al., 2025). This governance
gap creates opportunities for insurgent groups and
criminal networks to thrive, exploiting the void to
consolidate power and perpetuate violence.
Theoretical Framework
Environmental Scarcity Theory (EST)
Environmental Scarcity Theory (EST) posits that
resource scarcity can lead to conflict and social
instability. It examines the relationship between
environmental degradation, resource depletion, and
socio-political outcomes. The theory emphasises the
role of environmental factors in shaping human
behaviour and societal dynamics.
Environmental Scarcity Theory, proposed by Thomas
Homer-Dixon, asserts that the depletion of renewable
resources
—
such as water, arable land, and forests
—
can
lead to social unrest and violent conflict (Homer-Dixon,
1994). This theory is particularly significant in the
context of climate change, which intensifies resource
scarcity due to the increased frequency and severity of
extreme weather events such as droughts and floods
(Steel et al., 2022). This analysis examines the
fundamental elements of Environmental Scarcity
Theory, its implications for civil conflict, and its
significance in the modern African context.
Environmental Scarcity Theory posits that the scarcity of
resources can lead to competition among groups, which
may escalate into conflict (Homer-Dixon, 1994). The
theory delineates two main types of scarcity: supply-
induced scarcity, which arises from environmental
degradation or climate change, and demand-induced
scarcity, which is a consequence of population growth
and heightened resource demand.
Environmental scarcity may intensify social tensions,
especially in areas characterised by weak governance or
pre-existing social divisions. In these contexts,
competition for limited resources may intensify
grievances and lead to violent conflict (Buhaug &
Uexküll, 2021; Steel et al., 2022).
The relationship between environmental scarcity and
conflict can be analysed through the lens of
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
163
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
environmental scarcity, which may intensify pre-
existing social divisions and heighten tensions among
various groups. The scarcity of resources can heighten
the vulnerability of marginalised groups, leading to a
deterioration of social cohesion and an escalation of
conflict (Koubi et al., 2020).
Multiple
studies
have
empirically
validated
Environmental Scarcity Theory, establishing a
connection between resource scarcity and conflict.
Studies indicate that drought conditions markedly
elevate the risk of civil conflict in agriculturally
dependent regions (Uexküll et al., 2020). Households
in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that
experienced drought conditions exhibited a higher
likelihood
of
supporting
political
violence,
demonstrating the direct influence of environmental
stressors on conflict dynamics (Uexküll et al., 2020).
Studies have indicated that climate-induced migration
can serve as a pathway to conflict. Displacement
resulting from environmental degradation can incite
competition for resources within host communities,
potentially leading to social tensions and conflict
(Koubi et al., 2020). This dynamic is particularly evident
in regions with significant migration driven by climate
change, such as the Horn of Africa, where competition
for resources between migrants and host communities
has resulted in heightened conflict (Kenee, 2022).
Environmental Scarcity Theory offers a useful
framework; however, it faces several critiques. A
notable criticism is its tendency to oversimplify the
intricate causes of conflict by mainly linking violence to
environmental factors (Hendrix et al., 2023). Critics
contend that this viewpoint may obscure the influence
of political, economic, and social factors that also play
a role in conflict dynamics (Koubi et al., 2020).
The theory has faced criticism for its deterministic
nature, positing that resource scarcity inevitably
results in conflict. Many societies have developed
adaptive strategies and governance mechanisms to
mitigate the impacts of scarcity and prevent conflict
(Buhaug & Uexküll, 2021). Effective resource
management and conflict resolution mechanisms
enable communities to address resource competition
without engaging in violence (Neef et al., 2022).
EST is particularly pertinent in the context of current
climate challenges. The ongoing effects of climate
change on resource availability heighten the potential
for conflict stemming from scarcity. The rising
occurrence of extreme weather events, including
droughts and floods, highlights the critical need to
address the climate-conflict relationship (Steel et al.,
2022).
In Africa, where numerous communities are already
susceptible to the effects of climate change, the
ramifications of Environmental Scarcity Theory are
especially significant. The continent faces considerable
environmental stressors such as desertification, water
scarcity, and food insecurity, which may intensify pre-
existing conflicts (Masara, 2021; Issifu et al., 2022).
Relative Deprivation Theory (RDT)
Ted Robert Gurr's Relative Deprivation Theory offers a
compelling lens for understanding the dynamics of
collective violence and insurgencies, particularly within
economically disadvantaged and politically marginalized
populations. This theory posits that a discrepancy
between individuals' or groups' expectations and their
reality can lead to frustration, resentment, and a
proclivity toward collective violence (Baylouny, 2024;
Nasser, 2024).
Relative deprivation is not merely about material
deprivation but rather about the perceived gap
between expectations and reality. Gurr argued that the
greater this gap, the more intense the sense of
deprivation, leading to increased mobilization towards
violent action (Sudira, Pamungkas, & Adulsyah, 2021).
For instance, a community observing rapid economic
development in a neighboring region, while
experiencing stagnation, may feel marginalized,
sparking civil unrest or insurgent activities.
Moreover, the theory emphasizes the relational nature
of deprivation, highlighting the role of intergroup
comparisons in exacerbating feelings of injustice. Such
perceptions are intensified in contexts of weak
governance, corruption, and limited avenues for redress
(Walker, 2024).
Relative Deprivation Theory has been instrumental in
explaining the rise of insurgent movements and civil
conflicts, particularly in developing regions. In Africa, for
example, the theory elucidates the drivers of conflict in
resource-rich yet economically marginalized areas like
the Niger Delta in Nigeria and the Sahel region.
Communities in these regions, often experiencing
environmental degradation and economic exclusion,
perceive themselves as exploited or neglected by
central governments, fueling grievances (Basedau &
Deitch, 2022).
The theory is also relevant in contexts of economic
globalization and uneven development. Communities or
nations witnessing rapid wealth accumulation by elites
or multinational corporations, while the majority faces
stagnation or impoverishment, are more likely to resort
to protests or violent uprisings. This dynamic is evident
in the ongoing struggles of Indigenous populations
globally, whose resources are often extracted without
corresponding socio-economic benefits (Cornelius,
2024).
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
164
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
Relative Deprivation Theory intersects with other
theoretical models. Social Identity Theory explains how
group identity and solidarity strengthen in response to
perceived injustices, leading to collective action.
Resource Mobilization Theory provides insights into
how aggrieved groups translate deprivation into action
by accessing resources like leadership, organizational
capacity, and communication networks (Waty, Mirza,
& Fadli, 2022).
Additionally, integrating Relative Deprivation Theory
with systemic theories of governance highlights how
institutional inadequacies exacerbate grievances.
Weak state capacity to deliver equitable public goods
or address intergroup inequalities intensifies
perceptions of deprivation, fueling cycles of rebellion
and state fragility (Hampson, Özerdem, & Kent, 2020).
While a valuable framework, Relative Deprivation
Theory has limitations. Critics argue that it
overemphasizes subjective perceptions, making
empirical validation challenging. Furthermore, not all
perceived deprivation results in collective violence;
cultural, psychological, and systemic factors can
mediate
the
trajectory
from
frustration
to
mobilization. Communities with strong conflict
resolution mechanisms or cultural norms emphasizing
non-violence may experience deprivation without
resorting to rebellion (Furceri, Pizzuto, & Yarveisi,
2024).
Relative Deprivation Theory remains a crucial tool for
analyzing the roots of civil conflict and insurgencies,
particularly in contexts marked by socio-economic and
political inequalities. By highlighting the role of
perceived disparities and unmet expectations, the
theory deepens our understanding of why some
groups mobilize for collective violence.
Climate Change Impacts in Africa
Africa is disproportionately impacted by climate
change, resulting in significant effects on its varied
ecosystems, economies, and communities. The
continent's sensitivity arises from its dependence on
climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, its
constrained adaptation capacities, and its vulnerability
to extreme weather phenomena.
The Sahel region has undergone significant
desertification and reduced precipitation, adversely
impacting agricultural output and pasturelands. The
alterations have exacerbated tensions between
farmers and herders about limited resources,
undermining socio-economic stability (Adam et al.,
2025). Prolonged droughts in Burkina Faso have
markedly diminished maize harvests, intensifying food
insecurity and economic difficulties for rural
households (Waongo et al., 2024). Climate- smart
farming practices, although implemented in certain
regions, are underutilised owing to insufficient
resources and understanding.
The Horn of Africa endures persistent droughts, with
nations such as Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya suffering
extended arid periods. These droughts have resulted in
significant crop failures, livestock losses, and severe
food shortages. The situation is exacerbated by political
instability and little foreign aid, resulting in millions
dependent on humanitarian assistance (Moyo, 2024).
The conventional migration routes of pastoralists have
been interrupted, exacerbating intercommunal conflicts
over scarce resources.
The prevalence and severity of cyclones and floods in
Southern Africa have escalated, resulting in extensive
infrastructure damage and fatalities. The 2019 Cyclone
Idai and accompanying storms underscored the region's
susceptibility to catastrophic weather events. These
occurrences have relocated populations, compromised
food security, and damaged local economies (Salako et
al., 2024). The agricultural sector in South Africa has
encountered unparalleled challenges due to alterations
in rainfall patterns, which have diminished water
availability for irrigation (Apio, 2024).
Agriculture, the cornerstone of several African
economies, is especially susceptible to climate change.
Increasing
temperatures
and
unpredictable
precipitation have markedly diminished agricultural
output, jeopardising food security. In West Africa,
rainfed maize output has diminished due to heightened
climate unpredictability, requiring the implementation
of resilient crop types (Waongo et al., 2024).
Nevertheless, the elevated expenses and insufficient
access to these technologies hinder their extensive
adoption by smallholder farmers.
Climate change has resulted in the depletion of essential
water supplies throughout Africa, heightening
competition for access. The contraction of Lake Chad
exemplifies a significant issue, impacting millions in
adjacent nations who depend on the lake for fishing,
agriculture, and potable water. This has incited
resource-driven conflicts and migration, exacerbating
regional instability (Okoliko & de Wit, 2024). Enhanced
water
management
regulations
and
regional
collaboration are crucial to tackle these concerns.
Climate change has exacerbated poverty levels,
compelling several Africans to depend on informal
businesses for sustenance. Disruptions in agriculture
and fisheries have resulted in the loss of livelihoods,
prompting individuals to migrate to urban regions in
pursuit of employment. This movement frequently
leads to congested urban areas, intensifying socio-
economic disparities and placing pressure on public
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
165
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
services (Kurebwa & Kurebwa, 2025). Long-term
solutions must encompass investments in sustainable
livelihoods and social protection frameworks.
Mechanisms Connecting Climate Change and Civil
Conflict
•
Resource Scarcity and Rivalry
Climate change intensifies the depletion of essential
natural resources, like water and arable land,
increasing competition among populations. Resource
shortage is most pronounced in areas such as the
Sahel, where desertification and unpredictable rainfall
patterns have diminished agricultural output. Conflicts
between farmers and herders in Nigeria illustrate this
phenomenon, as herders roam in pursuit of grazing
land, frequently intruding upon farmers' domains,
resulting in confrontations that escalate into extensive
violence (Okoyeuzu et al., 2024). The conflicts, driven
by rivalry for scarce resources, illustrate the
intersection of environmental stressors and pre-
existing socio-economic tensions that incite conflict.
•
Climate-Driven Migration and Displacement
Climate change has caused considerable displacement
throughout Africa, as inhabitants are compelled to
abandon their residences owing to droughts, floods,
and desertification. The Lake Chad Basin exemplifies a
situation where diminishing water supplies have
resulted in the displacement of millions, causing
tensions between host communities and displaced
people over limited resources. This competition
frequently leads to localised violence and exacerbates
regional instability (Bedasa & Deksisa, 2024).
Displacement undermines societal cohesion and
fosters an environment conducive to insurgent groups
such as Boko Haram, enabling them to exploit
grievances and recruit recruits (Kwanhi et al., 2024).
•
Economic
Disruptions
and
Livelihood
Disruption
Climate-induced economic disruptions, including
agricultural failures and animal losses, jeopardise
livelihoods and compel vulnerable populations to
resort to extreme means. In Somalia, extended
droughts have ravaged agricultural and pastoral
populations, resulting in considerable economic
difficulties. Such interruptions render individuals more
vulnerable to recruitment by armed factions such as Al-
Shabaab, which exploits complaints arising from the
loss of income (Akinyetun et al., 2024). This connection
highlights how economic vulnerabilities stemming
from climate change can perpetuate cycles of violence
and war.
•
Institutional
Fragility
and
Governance
Challenges
Inadequate governance and institutional capability
intensify the effects of climate change on conflict.
Numerous African nations face challenges in efficiently
managing environmental stressors due to corruption,
resource limitations, and insufficient infrastructure. The
mismanagement of aid and resources exacerbates
grievances, while ineffective conflict resolution
procedures fail to resolve issues prior to escalation. In
Kenya, the failure to manage access to diminishing
water supplies has resulted in ongoing conflicts among
pastoralist communities (Duba, 2024). This institutional
instability not only obstructs climate adaptation
initiatives but also heightens the probability of violence
in susceptible areas.
Case Studies of the Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa
•
Conflicts between farmers and herders in
Nigeria
The conflicts between farmers and herders in Nigeria
exemplify the relationship between climate and conflict.
Desertification and land degradation in northern Nigeria
have diminished grazing land, compelling herders to
migrate southward, which has resulted in violent
confrontations with farmers over limited resources
(Ogum, 2023; Umana et al., 2023). Decreasing rainfall
patterns and unsustainable agricultural practices
intensify these tensions. Government initiatives such as
the National Livestock Transformation Plan seek to
address the issue; however, their implementation
frequently faces challenges due to weak governance
and socio-political divisions (Akinyetun & Ogunbodede,
2023).
•
Climate Stressors, Migration, and Ethnic
Tensions in Sudan and South Sudan
Climate-induced droughts and floods in Sudan and
South Sudan have exacerbated competition for limited
resources, resulting in displacement and conflict
(Babatunde & Ibnouf, 2024).
Environmental stressors intensify existing ethnic
tensions by heightening competition for land and water
resources
along
ethnic
lines.
International
interventions, including peacekeeping missions and
climate adaptation programs, exhibit varied success
attributed to the complexities of conflicts and
opposition from local stakeholders (Lenshie et al.,
2021).
•
Somalia: Drought and Insurgency Issues
The recurrent droughts in Somalia have severely
impacted rural livelihoods, increasing the vulnerability
of populations to recruitment by insurgent groups such
as Al-Shabaab (Busby et al., 2022). The group capitalises
on grievances arising from resource scarcity to garner
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
166
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
support, emphasising the connection between climate
stress and socio-political instability. Humanitarian aid
is crucial; however, it frequently lacks sustainability
and does not effectively tackle underlying issues such
as inadequate infrastructure and governance (Njoki,
2023).
•
Lake Chad Basin: Displacement and Insurgency
Issues
The reduction of Lake Chad has resulted in the
displacement of millions, facilitating the emergence of
insurgent groups such as Boko Haram (Scheffran et al.,
2022). The group exploits socio- economic grievances
within displaced populations to establish a recruitment
base. Regional cooperation and international support,
exemplified by initiatives such as the Great Green Wall,
are essential for tackling the interconnected issues of
climate change and insurgency in the area. These
efforts encounter substantial obstacles, such as
insufficient funding, corruption, and inadequate
coordination (Fonjong & Wanki, 2024).
The case studies illustrate the intricate relationships
among climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict
in Africa.
Challenges and Limitations
•
Data Gaps and Uncertainty
The absence of detailed data explicitly connecting
climate change to particular civil conflicts in Africa
constitutes a considerable challenge. There is
agreement that environmental stressors like droughts
and desertification intensify socio-political tensions;
however, distinguishing climate factors from other
conflict drivers
—
such as governance failures, poverty,
and ethnic rivalries
—
remains complex (Aragie, 2024).
The interrelatedness of these variables frequently
obscures causal pathways, complicating the design of
targeted interventions. Furthermore, climate-conflict
dynamics data is often region-specific, which restricts
the applicability of findings to other contexts
(Muhammed, 2023).
The uncertainty inherent in climate modelling further
complicates the situation. Projections regarding
temperature increases, variability in rainfall, and
occurrences of extreme weather events are frequently
debated, stemming from constraints in data precision
and variations in methodologies. This uncertainty
diminishes the confidence of policymakers and donors
in prioritising climate-resilient strategies, resulting in
delays in actionable responses (Mvile & Bishoge, 2024).
•
Political and economic limitations
Insufficient funding constitutes a significant constraint
in tackling the climate-conflict relationship in Africa.
Numerous countries in the region are deficient in
financial resources necessary for the implementation of
effective climate adaptation measures and for
investment in sustainable peacebuilding initiatives
(Hrynick, 2024). International financial assistance
frequently comes with strict conditions or is allocated to
short-term initiatives, which do not adequately address
fundamental vulnerabilities.
Political opposition to reforms constitutes an additional
barrier. Structural changes, including equitable resource
distribution and decentralisation of governance,
frequently pose a threat to the vested interests of
political elites. This resistance obstructs the
implementation of policies that may alleviate climate-
induced conflicts. Initiatives targeting resource
allocation disparities in the Sahel have encountered
resistance, primarily due to concerns regarding the
potential erosion of centralised control (Akram et al.,
2024).
•
Social and cultural obstacles
The interplay of social and cultural dynamics
complicates efforts to address the relationship between
climate change and civil conflict. In numerous impacted
areas, local communities demonstrate resistance to
external interventions, frequently viewing them as neo-
colonial or incompatible with their traditional practices
(Muhammed, 2023). The resistance hinders the
execution of climate adaptation programs, particularly
those dependent on international stakeholders.
Ethno-religious dynamics play a significant role.
Conflicts in areas like the Lake Chad Basin and the Horn
of Africa are rooted in historical grievances and identity
politics, which are intensified by climate stressors rather
than being caused by them.
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
167
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
Source: Search - Our World in Data
Authors Analysis
The map shows the average monthly surface
temperature in Africa as of October 15, 2024. The map
uses colours to show different temperatures across the
continent, highlighting that the warmer areas are
mainly found in the northern and eastern parts of
Africa.
The map shows that most of the continent has
temperatures over 15 degrees Celsius, and some
places even go above 30 degrees Celsius. The high-
temperature range makes sense considering Africa's
geographical position, as it is mostly located within the
tropics.
The map shows possible differences in temperature
patterns across regions. The northern and eastern
areas, especially the Sahara Desert and the Horn of
Africa, show much higher temperatures than the
southern and western parts. This difference can be
explained by things like how far north or south you are,
how high up the land is, and how close it is to big lakes
or oceans.
The map shows data that can help us look at different
climate-related events, like heatwaves and droughts,
and how they might affect agriculture, water resources,
and human health. Additionally, the map can be really
helpful for figuring out how temperature patterns are
spread out across Africa and what that means for
sustainable development and adapting to climate
change.
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
168
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
Source: The Links between Food Crises and Violence in East, South and West Africa: An ACLED briefing
note
Authors analysis
The map shows FEWS NET's assessment of Africa's
February
–
May 2017 food crisis and ACLED's conflict
statistics. The map shows significant food insecurity
across the continent, with different regions
experiencing distinct crises.
"Famine," the worst food crisis, is in South Sudan and
Somalia. These regions have severe food shortages,
malnutrition, and high mortality. Food shortages and
acute malnutrition are common in South Sudan,
Somalia, Nigeria, and Yemen during the "Emergency"
period.
Large parts of the continent are "Crisis" and "Stressed,"
signifying food insecurity and possible worsening.
Conflict, displacement, and climate shocks worsen food
shortages in these locations. Conflict data overlays show
that food insecurity and conflict are linked, implying that
conflict can generate and worsen food shortages.
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
169
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
Source: http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/Food_assistance_needs_2017.pdf
Authors Analysis
The data presented herein demonstrates a concerning
correlation between conflict and food insecurity in
Africa. A substantial segment of Eastern, Southern, and
Western Africa endures diverse levels of food
insecurity, from "Minimal" to "Famine." The prevalent
vulnerability, along with rising conflict rates, especially
in areas designated as "Crisis," "Emergency," and
"Famine," engenders a complex and perilous scenario.
The evidence illustrates a detrimental loop in which
conflict intensifies food insecurity, and conversely. As
war escalates, it interrupts agricultural output,
obstructs food access, and ruins infrastructure,
resulting in exacerbated food shortages. Conversely,
food insecurity can incite social instability and war as
individuals vie for limited resources.
Regional inequalities in food insecurity and violence
are also apparent. Although South Sudan is presently
the sole nation facing "Famine" conditions, the
escalating violence and food insecurity in the region is
alarming. This indicates the necessity for a thorough
regional strategy to tackle these difficulties.
DISCUSSION
This seminar paper highlights the significant and
complex effects of climate change on civil strife
throughout Africa. Analysis of many case studies and
empirical research reveals that climate- induced
environmental stressors substantially contribute to
socio-political instability. This discourse integrates
essential insights from the study, clarifying the
processes that propel these dynamics and situating
them within the larger contexts of governance, resource
scarcity, and socio- economic vulnerability.
A prominent conclusion is the impact of climate change
on exacerbating resource shortages, especially
regarding water and cultivable land. Increasing
temperatures, deserts, and unpredictable rainfall
patterns have significantly reduced the supply of these
essential
resources,
consequently
intensifying
competition. In the Sahel region, the interaction
between desertification and unpredictable weather
patterns has intensified conflicts between farmers and
herders regarding grazing pastures and water resources,
frequently leading to violent confrontations. These
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
170
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
dynamics underscore the vulnerability of conventional
coping strategies in response to climate change
(Akinyetun et al., 2024; Okoyeuzu et al., 2024).
Additionally, resource constraint, intensified by
climate change, intersects with existing socio-
economic disparities, hence magnifying discontent.
This discovery corresponds with the Environmental
Scarcity Theory, which asserts that the exhaustion of
renewable resources in susceptible areas might
provoke conflict (Homer-Dixon, 1994; Uexküll et al.,
2020).
Displacement and migration caused by climate change
are key contributors to intercommunal relations.
Communities forced to relocate owing to severe
weather phenomena, such as droughts and floods,
frequently inhabit regions already experiencing stress,
exacerbating competition for limited resources. The
reduction of Lake Chad illustrates this phenomenon,
resulting in the displacement of millions and
heightened tensions between host communities and
migrants. Insurgent organisations such as Boko Haram
have capitalised on these socio-economic issues,
utilising them as possibilities for recruitment (Kwanhi
et al., 2024; Bedasa & Deksisa, 2024).
This confluence of displacement, migration, and
conflict highlights the intricate relationship between
environmental stress and socio-political vulnerability.
It underscores the necessity for policy initiatives that
cater to the urgent requirements of displaced
populations while ensuring the long-term stability of
host communities.
Inadequate governance frameworks and institutional
inefficiencies substantially exacerbate the negative
impacts of climate change on civil strife. Numerous
African countries lack the capability to efficiently
address natural resource conflicts or provide fair
access to essential requirements, resulting in a void
frequently exploited by non-state entities, rebel
factions, and criminal organisations (Duba, 2024;
Troise et al., 2025).
In Kenya, inadequate governance in water resource
management has sustained disputes among pastoralist
groups, but in Somalia, Al-Shabaab has used
governance deficiencies to strengthen its influence in
drought-affected regions. These observations highlight
the essential function of government in alleviating or
intensifying climate-related conflicts (Njoki, 2023;
Busby et al., 2022).
Climate change has significantly affected agricultural
and pastoral livelihoods throughout Africa, especially
in areas reliant on rain-fed agriculture. In Somalia,
recurrent droughts have severely diminished
agricultural output and animal numbers, rendering
impacted communities economically precarious. Such
disturbances increase individuals' vulnerability to
recruitment by armed groups, as economic deprivation
compels them to seek alternative survival strategies
(Moyo, 2024; Akinyetun et al., 2024).
The correlation between economic vulnerability and
conflict underscores the imperative for climate-resilient
livelihood solutions. Investments in climate-resilient
agricultural techniques and income diversification are
essential to mitigate communities' vulnerability to
climate-induced economic disruptions.
The results indicate that the influence of climate change
on conflict differs by location, influenced by distinct
socio-political, cultural, and environmental factors. The
Sahel, Lake Chad Basin, and the Horn of Africa exhibit
unique
issues
concerning
resource
shortages,
displacement, and governance (Bedasa & Deksisa, 2024;
Fonjong & Wanki, 2024). These geographical disparities
highlight the necessity of tailored policy interventions
that tackle the specific difficulties of each location.
The results correspond with many theoretical
frameworks. Environmental Scarcity Theory elucidates
how resource depletion intensifies societal tensions,
whereas Relative Deprivation Theory contextualises the
frustration stemming from unequal access to resources
and opportunities (Koubi et al., 2020). These
frameworks offer a thorough comprehension of the
relationship between environmental stresses and socio-
political instability, underscoring the necessity for
coordinated solutions that tackle both ecological and
societal vulnerabilities.
The results of this seminar paper confirm the significant
relationships between climate change and civil strife in
Africa. Resource scarcity, displacement, governance
issues, and economic disruptions are the primary
mechanisms by which climate change intensifies
instability.
CONCLUSION
This analysis highlights the substantial impact of climate
change as a driver of civil conflict in Africa. Resource
scarcity induced by climate change, especially regarding
water and arable land, has become a significant catalyst
for conflict, intensifying pre-existing tensions and
generating new ones. The Sahel region has experienced
increasing conflicts between farmers and herders,
attributed to desertification and changing rainfall
patterns (Akinyetun et al., 2024).
Climate-related displacement has exacerbated these
challenges. Population displacements, frequently
caused by floods and droughts, may result in heightened
competition for resources and social tensions within
host communities. The Lake Chad Basin has undergone
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
171
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
considerable displacement and conflict attributed to
diminishing water resources, creating opportunities
for insurgent groups such as Boko Haram (Ehiane &
Moyo, 2022).
Inadequate governance frameworks and institutional
shortcomings intensify the effects of climate change on
conflict.
Corrupt
practices,
poor
resource
management, and ineffective conflict resolution
mechanisms can impede efforts to tackle climate-
induced challenges. The absence of effective
governance frequently results in prolonged conflicts
and the deepening of grievances, thereby complicating
peacebuilding initiatives (von Braun et al., 2022).
The relationship between climate change and civil
conflict in Africa requires a thorough and coordinated
response. Addressing the underlying causes of climate-
induced conflict and enhancing governance can
mitigate risks and foster a more sustainable and
peaceful future for the continent.
Policy Responses and Recommendations
The intricate relationship between climate change and
civil conflict in Africa requires a comprehensive and
proactive policy strategy. To address the immediate
and long-term impacts of climate-induced stressors,
policy interventions must focus on climate adaptation,
governance, and the underlying causes of vulnerability.
•
Enhancing Climate Adaptation Strategies
Due to the substantial dependence of African
populations on agriculture, it is essential for policies to
encourage sustainable farming practices, including
conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and precision
agriculture. These practices improve soil fertility,
increase water retention, and boost agricultural
productivity, thereby reducing the negative impacts of
climate variability. Integrated water resource
management is essential, especially in areas such as
the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin. Investment in irrigation
infrastructure, rainwater harvesting, and groundwater
recharge systems can mitigate resource competition
and decrease the probability of intercommunal
conflict.
The transition to renewable energy sources, including
solar, wind, and hydropower, can diminish Africa's
reliance on climate-sensitive and conflict-prone
resources such as biomass and fossil fuels. This
transition can facilitate sustainable development,
decrease deforestation and carbon emissions, and
alleviate the wider effects of climate change.
Decentralised renewable energy systems, especially
solar power, can supply electricity to rural regions,
promoting economic opportunities and enhancing
social stability.
•
Improving Governance and Mechanisms for
Conflict Resolution
Institutional capacity building is essential for the
effective management of natural resources and the
equitable distribution of those resources, necessitating
strong institutions. Enhancing the capacity of local
governments
and
regulatory
bodies
improves
transparency, accountability, and the effectiveness of
resource governance.
Emphasising community-based dispute resolution
mechanisms can effectively address conflicts in a
culturally sensitive and accessible way. These
mechanisms may mitigate tensions, enhance social
cohesion, and avert escalation into violence.
Early warning systems serve as proactive measures that
can reduce conflict risks by identifying and addressing
potential flashpoints. These systems must incorporate
climate data, socio-political analysis, and conflict
monitoring to deliver timely and actionable intelligence.
•
Addressing Root Causes of Vulnerability
Socioeconomic
development
necessitates
the
addressing of poverty and unemployment to ensure
long-term stability. Investment in education, skill
development, and economic diversification can
generate alternative livelihood opportunities and
diminish dependence on climate-sensitive activities.
Community-Based Natural Resource Management
enables local communities to collaboratively oversee
natural resources, resulting in more equitable and
sustainable outcomes. Decentralised decision-making
structures and capacity-building initiatives promote
community ownership and mitigate resource conflicts.
•
International Collaboration and Support
Regional organisations, including the African Union, are
essential in coordinating responses to climate-related
conflicts, aligning policies, facilitating knowledge
sharing, and mobilising resources.
Mobilising global climate finance through mechanisms
such as the Green Climate Fund is crucial for assisting
vulnerable African nations in executing climate
adaptation and conflict mitigation strategies. To ensure
that funds are allocated to the most vulnerable
communities, it is essential to implement strong
accountability mechanisms and align with local
priorities.
Implementing comprehensive policy responses and
recommendations will enable Africa to address the
challenges of climate change, reduce conflict risks, and
promote sustainable development and peacebuilding.
REFERENCES
Abu Hatab, A., López-i-Gelats, F., Cellura, M., & El Bilali,
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
172
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
H. (2024). Contributions of the WEFE nexus to
sustainability.
DIVA
Portal.
Retrieved
from
https://www.diva-
portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2:1915619
Ackah-Arthur, J. (2023). The state, non-state actors,
and populations: Security responses to insurgent
attacks in Sub-Saharan Africa. LSE Theses Online.
Retrieved from https://etheses.lse.ac.uk/4635/
Adam, A. M., Giller, K. E., & Rusinamhodzi, L. (2025).
Enhancing the resilience of intercropping systems to
changing moisture conditions in Africa through the
integration of grain legumes: A meta-analysis. Field
Crops
Research.
Retrieved
from
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0
378429024004167.
Akinyetun, T. S., & Ogunbodede, N. E. (2023). Conflict
weather: Climate change as a driver of pastoralist
conflicts in the Lake Chad region. Jurnal Politik.
Retrieved from https://scholarhub.ui.ac.id/politik.
Akinyetun, T. S., Fatai-Abatan, A., & Bello, S. (2024).
Heated Environment, Armed People: Between
"Climate Change Conflict" and "Fragility Conflict" in the
Sahel. Journal of Asian and
African Studies.
Retrieved
from
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0021
9096241285108.
Akram, W., Hussain, Z., & Adeel, S. (2024). Water and
Food Security in the Middle Eastern and
NorthernAfrican
Countries.
Springer.
Retrieved
from
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/37854608
3
Aragie, T. A. (2024). Regional Economic Communities
and Peace Building in Africa: Lessons from
ECOWAS
and
IGAD. The
African Review. Retrieved
from
https://brill.com/view/journals/tare/aop/article-
10.1163-1821889x-bja10134/article-
10.1163-
1821889x-bja10134.xml
Babatunde, A. O., & Ibnouf, F. O. (2024). The dynamics
of herder-farmer conflicts in Plateau State, Nigeria, and
Central Darfur State, Sudan. African Studies Review.
Retrieved
from
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/african-
studies-review.
Basedau, M., & Deitch, M. (2022). Rebels with a cause:
Does ideology make armed conflicts longer and
bloodier? Journal of Conflict Resolution. Retrieved
from
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022
0027221108222
Baylouny, A. (2024). The Dynamics of Insurgent
Movements. Springer.
Bedasa, Y., & Deksisa, K. (2024). Food insecurity in East
Africa: An integrated strategy to address climate change
impact and violence conflict. Journal of Agriculture and
Food
Research.
Retrieved
from
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S26
66154324000152.
Berti, B. (2018). Violent and criminal non-state actors.
Oxford Handbook of Governance and Limited
Statehood.
Busby, J., Eklöw, K., & Krampe, F. (2022). Security risks
of environmental crises: Environment of peace.
OceanRep
Geomar.
Retrieved
from
https://oceanrep.geomar.de.
Carlson,
J.
(2024). Solving the
“small
outbreak
problem”
in
climate epidemiology. doi:10.32942/x2v024
Chigudu, H. (2024). Peace and security, health and
climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Law
and
Sustainable
Development.
doi:10.55908/sdgs.v12i6.3628
Clément, M., Geis, A., & Pfeifer, H. (2021). Recognising
armed non-state actors: Risks and opportunities for
conflict transformation. Manchester University Press.
Cornelius, K. G. (2024). Aspirations for equity and
excellence: A policy trajectory exploration.
ResearchGate.
Retrieved
from
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/385509649
Depetris-Chauvín, E., & Özak, Ö. (2020). Borderline
disorder: (De facto) historical ethnic borders and
contemporary conflict in Africa. SSRN Electronic Journal.
doi:10.2139/ssrn.3541025
Duba, S. G. (2024). Assessing response disconnects in
cascading climate change impacts and stressors in
northern
Kenya.
CGSpace.
Retrieved
from
https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstreams/c4012eda-d973-
4ef8-a058-c47df4e35e6f/download.
Ehiane, A., & Moyo, T. (2021). Climate change, human
insecurity and conflict dynamics in the Lake Chad region.
Journal
of
Asian
and
African
Studies.
doi:10.1177/00219096211063817
Ehiane, S., & Moyo, P. (2022). Climate change, human
insecurity and conflict dynamics in the Lake Chad region.
Journal of Asian and African Studies. Retrieved from
https://journals.sagepub.com/
Fonjong, L., & Wanki, J. E. (2024). The food security crisis
in the Lake Chad Basin: NGOs’ res
ponse to the climate-
security nexus. The Journal of Environment &
Development.
Retrieved
from
https://journals.sagepub.com.
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
173
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
Furceri, D., Pizzuto, P., & Yarveisi, K. (2024). The effect
of pandemic crises on fertility. Journal of
Population
Economics.
Retrieved
from
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-
024-00983-3
Garfinkel, M. (2021). The climate conflict trap:
Examining the impact of climate change on violent
conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Flux International
Relations Review. doi:10.26443/firr.v11i2.72
Hampson, F. O., Özerdem, A., & Kent, J. (2020).
Routledge Handbook of Peace, Security, and
Development. Taylor & Francis.
Hänsel, S. (2023). Regional climate variability.
Retrieved
from
https://tubaf.qucosa.de/id/qucosa:89032
Hendrix, C. S., Koubi, V., Selby, J., Siddiqi, A., & Uexküll,
N. v. (2023). Climate change and conflict. Nature
Reviews Earth &Amp; Environment, 4(3), 144-148.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00382-w
Hofmann, C., & Saul, B. (2016). Humanitarian
engagement with non-state armed groups. Chatham
House.
Hrynick, T. (2024). Key Considerations for Responding
to Floods in South Sudan Through the Humanitarian-
Peace-Development Nexus. OpenDocs. Retrieved from
https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/articles/report/26435752
Ignatiev, R., & Fediushin, V. (2024). Anthropology
Across Borders and Limits: 1st Independent Research
Network
Papers. Retrieved
from
https://books.google.com/books?id=TDX6EAAAQBAJ
Kenee, F. (2022). Pastoralists and violent conflict along
the Oromia
–
Somali border in Eastern Ethiopia:
Institutional options toward peacebuilding. *African
Studies Review*, doi:10.1017/asr.2021.89.
Koubi, V., Nguyễn, Q., Spilker, G., & Böhmelt, T. (2020).
Environmental migrants and social- movement
participation. Journal of Peace Research, 58(1), 18-32.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343320972153
Kurebwa, J., & Kurebwa, N. Y. (2025). Climate change
and household food security. IGI Global. Retrieved
from
https://www.igi-global.com/chapter/climate-
change-and-household-food- security/363184.
Kwame, A., et al. (2022). The threats of climate change
on water and food security in South Africa.
American Journal of Environment and Climate.
doi:10.54536/ajec.v1i2.568
Kwanhi, T., Modiba, F. S., Mago, S., & Matindike, S.
(2024). Conceptualizing climate-induced migration in
Africa. Environmental Science and Policy. Retrieved
from
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S22
11464524000873 .
Ludvík, Z. (2023). Violent non-state actors: The politics
of territorial governance. Springer.
MacLeod, A., Hofmann, C., Saul, B., & Hogg, J. (2016).
Engaging non-state armed groups.
Chatham House Report.
Mahlakeng, T. (2023). Homer-Dixon's environmental
scarcity
theory
and
regime
theory.
doi:10.4324/9781003366379-2.
Moyo, M. M. (2024). Pastoralist conflict in Ethiopia from
2015 to 2022: Climate change and food insecurity as
exacerbating factors. ProQuest Dissertations. Retrieved
from
https://search.proquest.com/openview/542297bfac45f
dee2e9ad9ff55269875/1.
Muhammed, G. Y. (2023). Migration and Trans-Border
Crimes in the Sahel Region. YAJAMSS. Retrieved from
http://yajamss.com.ng/index.php/yajamss/article/view
/89
Müller, T. R. (2021). Interviews with Ethiopian and
Eritrean migrants in Nairobi and Khartoum, interviews
with Eritrean migrants in Addis Ababa, 2020
–
2021.
Reshare.
Retrieved
from
https://reshare.ukdataservice.ac.uk/id/eprint/857255
Mvile, B. N., & Bishoge, O. K. (2024). Mining and
Sustainable Development Goals in Africa. Resources
Policy. Retrieved
from
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S03
01420724000771
Nasser, L. (2024). A system justification approach to
predicting collective action. Ryerson University.
Retrieved from https://rshare.library.torontomu.ca
Njoki, F. W. (2023). Environmental stress and conflicts in
the Sahel region: A case study of Mali.
University of Nairobi Repository. Retrieved from
https://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke .
Odeyemi,
A.
(2021).
Conceptualising
climate‐
riskification for analysing climate security.
International
Social
Science
Journal*,
doi:10.1111/issj.12270.
Ojakorotu, V., & Erameh, N. I. (2024). Africa's
engagement with the responsibility to protect in the
21st
century.
Springer.
Retrieved
from
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-
981-99-8163-2.pdf
Okoliko, D. A., & de Wit, M. P. (2024). Analysing climate
change communication in African countries: Scales,
frames, and claims-makers in media from South Africa,
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
174
https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajpslc
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
Nigeria, and Kenya.
Environmental
Communication.
Retrieved
from
https://books.google.com/books?id=mrI0EQAAQBAJ.
Okoyeuzu, C. R., Ujunwa, A. I., & Ujunwa, A. (2024).
Interactive effects of armed conflict and climate
change on gender vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa.
International Journal of Social Economics.
Retrieved
from
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.11
08/IJSE-09-2022-0595/full/html .
Otundo Richard, M. (2024). Navigating climate change
and environmental degradation in conflict- affected
regions of Africa: Implications for sustainable
development and peacebuilding. SSRN. Retrieved from
https://papers.ssrn.com/
Podder, S. (2024). Non-state armed groups and
stability: Reconsidering legitimacy and inclusion.
Contemporary Security Policy.
Ramirez, C. (2024). The role of non-state actors in
conflict resolution: A comparative analysis.
Studies in Social Science & Humanities.
Regehr, E. (2021). Armed conflict: Trends and drivers.
Simons Foundation Report.
Salako, K. V., & Dimobe, K. (2024). Potential impacts of
future climate on twelve key multipurpose tree species
in Benin: Insights from species distribution modeling
for biodiversity conservation. Trees, Forests and
People.
Retrieved
from
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2
666719324002504.
Scheffran, J., Link, P. M., & Schilling, J. (2024). Climate
and conflict in Africa. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of
Climate
Science.
Retrieved
from
https://www.researchgate.net/
Sharifi, A., Candelaria, J. L., & Simangan, D. (2024).
Navigating peace and sustainability in an increasingly
complex
world. Springer.
Retrieved
from
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-
97-8772-2_1
Silander, J. (2021). The UN Agenda 2030 and the
climate-security nexus in Africa. Journal of Geography
Politics and Society. doi:10.26881/jpgs.2021.2.04
Singh, A. K., & Aparna. (2024). Climate change and
maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region: A
strategic
approach.
Springer.
Retrieved
from
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-
97-1685-2_8
Steel, D., DesRoches, C. T., & Mintz‐Woo, K. (2022).
Climate change and the threat to civilization.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
119(42). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210525119
Sudira, I. N., Pamungkas, C., & Adulsyah, F. (2021).
Pembangunan, marginalisasi, dan disintegrasi Papua.
TIFA
Foundation.
Retrieved
from
https://www.tifafoundation.id
Troise, C., Bigliardi, B., & Corvello, V. (2025). Examining
the influence of entrepreneurial ecosystem pressure on
the economic, social, and environmental orientation of
startups. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
Retrieved
from
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00
4016252400698X
von Braun, M., Bartrem, C., & von Lindern, I. (2022).
Climate change, conflict, and resource extraction:
Analyses of Nigerian artisanal mining communities and
ominous global trends. Annals of Global Health.
Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/
Walker, C. D. B. (2024). Whither Now and Why:
Blackness and critical thinking. Religious Studies Review.
Retrieved
from
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/rsr.17
063
Waongo, M., Laux, P., Coulibaly, A., & Sy, S. (2024).
Assessing the impacts of climate change on rainfed
maize production in Burkina Faso, West Africa.
Atmosphere.
Retrieved
from
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/386246129
.
Waty, R. R., Mirza, I. M., & Fadli, N. M. (2022).
Separatism
movement
and
contemporary
reconciliation: Causes and its impact. Jurnal Studi Sosial
dan
Politik.
Retrieved
from
https://jurnal.radenfatah.ac.id
Xu, H. (2023). Counter-globalization changes and
China's response in the perspective of global history.
Elibrary.
Retrieved
from
https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=65506029
Xu, Y., et al. (2020). Future of the human climate niche.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
doi:10.1073/pnas.1910114117
