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PUBLISHED DATE: - 04-11-2024
DOI: -
https://doi.org/10.37547/tajpslc/Volume06Issue11-07
PAGE NO.: - 42-51
THE NEXUS BETWEEN CORRUPTION AND
RESOURCE THEFT: IMPLICATIONS FOR
NATIONAL SECURITY IN RESOURCE-RICH
NATIONS
Patrick G. Onogwu
PhD Student City University, Cambodia
Olanrewaju Lawal
Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Faculty of
Social Sciences, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Abstract
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INTRODUCTION
Nigeria, as one of the largest oil-producing
countries in Africa, grapples with the significant
challenges of crude oil theft and corruption (Okorie
et al., 2023). These issues not only undermine the
nation's economic stability but also pose severe
threats to national security. Crude oil theft leads to
substantial
revenue
losses,
environmental
degradation, and has been linked to funding
criminal activities and insurgency (Adishi & Hunga,
2017). Crude oil theft, often referred to as
bunkering, involves the illegal extraction,
transportation, and sale of crude oil. This illicit
activity has been rampant in the Niger Delta region,
where complex networks of criminals and local
militants tap into pipelines, siphoning off vast
quantities of oil (Romsom, 2022). The scale of this
theft is staggering, with estimates suggesting that
Nigeria loses hundreds of thousands of barrels of
oil daily to illegal activities (Bodo et al., 2020). The
consequences of crude oil theft are far-reaching: it
results in significant revenue losses for the
government, environmental degradation from oil
spills, and potential funding for armed groups that
destabilise the country and Niger Delta region.
Corruption exacerbates the problem of crude oil
theft. Nigeria has long struggled with high levels of
corruption, which permeates various levels of
government and the private sector (Hope & Hope,
2017). Corrupt practices undermine the
effectiveness of law enforcement and regulatory
agencies tasked with protecting oil infrastructure
and
ensuring
compliance
with
industry
regulations.
Bribery,
embezzlement,
and
mismanagement of public funds erode trust in
institutions and facilitate the continuation of illegal
oil activities (Hope & Hope, 2017). The
combination of crude oil theft and corruption
creates a vicious cycle that hampers economic
development, fuels social unrest, and could pose
significant challenges to national security.
The nexus between crude oil theft, corruption, and
national security in Nigeria is complex and
multifaceted. Oil theft directly impacts the nation's
economy by reducing government revenue, which
in turn limits the resources available for critical
public services, including security and law
enforcement (Henry & Mohammed, 2023). The
environmental damage caused by oil spills from
sabotage and illegal refining activities further
compounds the human security crisis in affected
communities, leading to health issues, loss of
livelihoods, and forced displacement (Olufemi &
Ogunmodede, 2021). Corruption undermines the
rule of law and weakens the capacity of the state to
respond effectively to security threats. It fosters
impunity, allowing criminal networks to operate
with relative freedom and perpetuating a culture of
lawlessness (Singh, 2022). The funds generated
from crude oil theft often finance armed groups,
exacerbating violence and insecurity in the Niger
Delta and beyond (Romsom, 2022). These
dynamics contribute to a broader context of
instability, where economic, environmental, and
social factors converge to threaten national
security.
Despite various measures taken by the Nigerian
government and international bodies to curb crude
oil theft and corruption, these issues persist, with
dire implications for national security (Jooji et al.,
2023; Nwozor et al., 2023; Okorie et al., 2023; Oziri
& Achinike, 2021). There is a need for a robust
empirical and quantitative analysis to understand
the relationship between crude oil theft,
corruption, and national security in Nigeria. By
examining data on human security, oil spills due to
sabotage, and corruption indices over time, this
study aims to identify trends and relationships
which will provide a better understanding of the
problem. Furthermore, this study seeks to provide
actionable insights and recommendations to
policymakers, security agencies, and stakeholders
committed to enhancing Nigeria's national security
and economic prosperity.
Furthermore, most studies examining the
relationship between crude oil theft, corruption,
and
national
security
in
Nigeria
have
predominantly utilised qualitative methodologies
(Adishi & Hunga, 2017; Okoli & Orinya, 2013;
Onuoha, 2008). These studies have provided
valuable insights into the socio-political and
economic implications of crude oil theft and
corruption, emphasising narrative descriptions
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and case studies to highlight the issues. However,
there is a significant gap in the literature regarding
empirical and quantitative analyses that can
systematically measure and evaluate these
relationships.
Qualitative research, while rich in contextual detail,
often
lacks
the
statistical
rigour
and
generalisability that quantitative studies can
provide (Hays & McKibben, 2021). Consequently,
there is a need for a study that employs empirical
methods to quantitatively assess the trends,
correlations, and impacts of crude oil theft and
corruption on national security in Nigeria. This
study aims to fill this gap by utilising robust
quantitative techniques to analyse data over the
past decade. By doing so, it seeks to provide a more
objective and comprehensive understanding of the
dynamics at play and offer actionable insights
grounded in empirical evidence.
Studies have highlighted the pressing challenges
facing Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly
to oil theft, corruption, environmental degradation,
and socio-economic instability. Nwozor et al.
(2023) delved into the profound consequences of
oil theft in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, demonstrating
how it not only fuels environmental degradation
but also disrupts socio- economic stability and
human security. The destruction of traditional
livelihoods through oil theft and artisanal refining
leaves communities impoverished and prone to
unrest. To counter these effects, the authors
suggest
strengthening
state
institutions,
legitimizing artisanal refining, and developing
targeted welfare programs.
Building on this, Yahaya et al. (2020) broaden the
scope by investigating the interplay between
financial
development,
corruption,
and
environmental degradation across eight Sub-
Saharan African countries. Their findings align
with Nwozor et al.'s analysis, highlighting how
corruption can magnify environmental harm,
especially when financial growth is pursued
without strong regulatory frameworks. They call
for the adoption of energy-efficient technologies
and robust anti-corruption measures as essential
steps to mitigate environmental degradation in the
region.
Corruption's destabilising effects are further
explored by Shimawua (2020), who examines its
role in prolonging the Boko Haram insurgency in
Nigeria. Corrupt practices within the military, the
study argues, have diverted crucial resources from
the fight against insurgency, thereby weakening
the effectiveness of military operations. The
solution, according to Shimawua, lies in eliminating
corrupt officials from the military to restore
operational effectiveness and enhance national
security.
Olanrewaju et al. (2020) extend this discussion by
addressing how the mismanagement of natural
resources, driven by greed and grievance, fuels
conflicts and security challenges throughout Africa.
Their findings echo the arguments of previous
studies, underscoring that without proper resource
management and a concerted effort to curb
corru
ption, the continent’s security and stability
remain in jeopardy. The economic dimensions of
oil theft are quantified by Umar and Mohammed
(2021), who estimate that Nigeria loses
approximately US$6 billion annually due to this
illicit activity. These losses, they argue, not only
undermine the country’s revenue generation but
also exacerbate the socio-economic challenges
facing local communities. To address this, they
advocate for comprehensive measures to combat
illicit financial flows and improve transparency in
resource management.
Finally, Agba and Aide (2020) bring the broader
implications of corruption into focus, showing how
it permeates governance, development, and
security in Nigeria. They highlight how corruption
erodes public trust, misallocates resources, and
deepens poverty and inequality. Their call for a
united national effort to eradicate corruption
resonates with the solutions proposed across these
studies, all of which emphasize the need for reform
to improve governance, promote sustainability,
and enhance socio-economic stability.
Together,
these
studies
showcase
the
interconnected challenges facing Nigeria and Sub-
Saharan Africa, linking corruption, resource
mismanagement, and environmental degradation
with broader socio-economic and security
concerns. The solutions proposed converge on the
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need for institutional reforms, anti-corruption
measures, and sustainable resource management
to promote long-term stability and development in
the region.
Moreover, the current literature does not
adequately link corruption in the oil sector,
particularly crude oil theft, with national security.
While the detrimental effects of corruption on
political stability and economic growth are
recognised, there is a need for a deeper
understanding of how oil theft contributes to
security threats. This includes exploring how
stolen oil revenues finance activities that
destabilise the country, posing a direct threat to
national security.
Additionally, existing literature often addresses
corruption and crude oil theft as isolated issues,
without fully exploring their combined and
compounding effects on Nigeria’s overall security
landscape. This study fills this gap by providing an
integrated analysis of how corruption within the
military and government institutions, alongside the
rampant theft of crude oil, collectively undermines
Nigeria's national security. This study is therefore
highly relevant as it addresses these gaps by
focusing specifically on how crude oil theft
undermines economic stability and poses
significant challenges to national security. By
exploring these issues, the study contributes to a
more nuanced understanding of the sector-specific
impacts of corruption and provides critical insights
into the effectiveness of recent anti-corruption
measures an
d their implications for Nigeria’s
security and international relations.
DATA AND METHODS
This study employed a longitudinal research
design, which is a method of study where data is
collected from the same subjects repeatedly over
an extended period of time (Mohajan, 2020). This
approach is particularly useful for observing
changes, trends, and developments within a
particular
phenomenon,
population,
or
environment over time. The study area for this
study is Nigeria, a West African nation that is one of
the largest oil producers in the world and a
significant player in the global energy market
(Adedayo et al., 2021). Nigeria's oil industry,
concentrated in the Niger Delta region which is
comprised of nine states
—
Abia, Akwa Ibom,
Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Imo, Ondo, and
Rivers
—
and rich in crude oil reserves and has been
the hub of the nation's oil exploration and
production activities since the 1950s (Edo et al.,
2024).
Nigeria is a federal republic comprising 36 states
and a Federal Capital Territory, with Abuja as its
capital. The executive branch is led by the
President, who serves as both the head of state and
head of the federal government (Obiadi & Onochie,
2018). Nigeria's economy is the largest in Africa,
ranking 31st globally by nominal GDP and 30th by
purchasing power parity (PPP) (Isibor et al., 2022).
In 2022, its GDP (PPP) per capita was $9,148, which
is lower than that of South Africa, Egypt, or
Morocco, but slightly higher than Ghana and Ivory
Coast (Ojoare, 2023). Nigeria is a key player in
Africa, particularly in energy, financial markets,
pharmaceuticals, and entertainment. Beyond oil,
remittances from Nigerians abroad are the second-
largest source of foreign exchange earnings
(Ayuba, 2023).
Nigeria's financial services sector is highly
developed, featuring a mix of local and
international banks, asset management companies,
brokerage firms, insurance companies, private
equity funds, and investment banks (Oshikoya &
Durosinmi-Etti, 2019). The country has a lower-
middle-income economy with abundant natural
resources, including coal, bauxite, tantalite, gold,
tin, iron ore, limestone, niobium, lead, and zinc.
Despite these vast resources, Nigeria's mining
industry remains underdeveloped (Ayuk et al.,
2020).
Nigeria is the world's 15th largest oil producer, the
6th largest exporter, and holds the 9th largest
proven oil reserves (Adedara & Adetifa, 2022). Oil
is a major driver of the Nigerian economy,
contributing about 80% of government revenue.
Nigeria also has significant natural gas reserves,
which are seen as key to unlocking economic
growth along the Niger River. However, the
country loses an estimated $2.5 billion annually to
gas flaring and over 120,000 barrels of oil per day
to crude theft in the Niger Delta, leading to conflict
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and production disruptions. The Niger Delta Basin,
in the south-south region, is Nigeria's most
productive oil area, containing 78 of the country's
159 oil fields (Olade, 2021). Despite these
resources, petroleum was Nigeria's main import
until 2021, accounting for 24% of imports.
However, challenges like oil theft have prompted
international oil companies to consider divesting
their Nigerian assets.
DATA
Secondary data used for this study was sourced
from data repositories. The nature of the data for
this study encompassed several quantitative
metrics related to national security, crude oil theft
and corruption. Specifically, the data will include
crude oil theft, violent events and fatalities, oil spill
statistics, and political corruption index. National
security data was obtained from the Armed Conflict
Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). For oil spill
data, the study relied on information from the
National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency
(NOSDRA) while the data on corruption was
political corruption index sourced from World
Bank database.
METHODS
Data on violent events and fatalities, political
corruption index, and crude oil theft was collated,
sorted and cleaned using R to ensure its alignment
with the aim and the period (2013 to 2013) this
study. regression analysis was conducted to
assessing the impact of crude oil theft and
corruption on national security (human security).
Poisson regression analysis was utilized to
quantify the impact of crude oil theft and
corruption on national security; this analysis was
carried out in the context of two aspects of national
security (violent events and fatalities). Poisson
regression is particularly well-suited for this
analysis because the dependent variables
—
national security indicators (violent events and
fatalities)
—
are often count data, such as the
number of violent events and fatalities. By
employing this statistical method, the study aimed
to model the relationship between these variables
and the predictors (crude oil theft and corruption)
while accounting for the frequency of occurrences
within a given time frame.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
RESULTS
Influence of Corruption and Crude Oil Theft on
National Security (Violent Event) in Nigeria
Over the Past Decade
Table 1 shows results from Poisson regression on
the influence of crude oil theft, political corruption
on national security in Nigeria. The model assesses
how changes in crude oil theft events count and the
political corruption index influence the number of
total security events. The model summary reveals
significant findings. The intercept has a value of
30.761, with a standard error of 0.8546 and a
highly significant Wald Chi-Square value of
1295.707 (p < 0.001). This indicates a high baseline
level of security when other factors, such as crude
oil theft event count and political corruption, are
held constantly. This suggests that Nigeria faces
inherent security challenges beyond those
associated with crude oil theft and corruption.
Crude oil theft events have a positive and
statistically significant relationship with total
security events. The estimate for crude oil event
count is 0.001, with a very small standard error of
0.00003, and a Wald Chi-Square value of 480.703
(p < 0.001). Although the increase in security
events per crude oil event is small, the significance
of the relationship indicates that oil theft plays a
considerable role in fueling insecurity. Over time,
the accumulation of oil-related crimes contributes
to greater instability, further exacerbating national
security
concerns.
Political
corruption,
represented by the political corruption index,
shows a strong negative relationship with security,
with an estimate of -26.475 and a standard error of
0.947. The Wald Chi-Square for this parameter is
780.975 (p < 0.001). This indicates that as
corruption reduces, the number of security events
increases.
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Table 1 model summary on the influence of corruption and crude oil theft on national security (violent events) in Nigeria
over the past decade
95% Wald
Confidence
Interval
Hypothesis
Test
Parameter
B
Std.
Error
Lower
Upper
Wald
Chi-
Square
df
Sig.
(Intercept)
30.761
.854
29.086
32.436
1295.707
1
.000
COTEC
.001
3.366x10
-
5
.001
.001
480.703
1
.000
PCI
-26.475 .947
-28.332
-24.619 780.975
1
.000
(Scale)
1
a
Dependent Variable: Total_Events
Model: (Intercept), Crude_oil_event_count (COTEC), Political-corruption index (PCI)
a. Fixed at the displayed value.
Influence of Corruption and Crude Oil Theft on
National Security (Fatalities) in Nigeria Over
the Past Decade
Table 2 showcases insights into the impact of crude
oil event counts and political corruption on the
total number of fatalities. The intercept was
estimated at -9.962, with a standard error of 0.449,
and a Wald Chi-Square value of 491.403 (p <
0.001). This indicates a low baseline level of
fatalities in the absence of crude oil events and
corruption, although other inherent factors may
still influence fatality levels.
The crude oil event count demonstrated a small but
statistically significant negative relationship with
the total number of fatalities, with an estimated
coefficient of -0.00006 (p = 0.001). This suggests
that, counterintuitively, as crude oil theft events
increase, fatalities may slightly decrease. While the
effect is minimal, this could reflect the complex
dynamics of criminal activities related to oil theft,
where more oil theft incidents may not always lead
directly to higher fatality counts.
On the other hand, the political corruption index
had a substantial positive effect on fatalities, with
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an estimate of 19.589, a standard error of 0.495,
and a Wald Chi-Square value of 1562.575 (p <
0.001). This finding highlights the significant role
corruption plays in exacerbating fatal security
events. As corruption increases, the weakening of
state institutions and the erosion of law
enforcement contribute to a greater number of
fatalities, creating a dangerous environment where
violence and conflict thrive. Therefore, while oil
theft may not always result in an immediate
increase in deaths, political corruption has a clear
and strong link to higher fatality rates. Reducing
corruption and strengthening governance will be
crucial in addressing the rising fatalities associated
with security events in Nigeria.
Table 2a model summary on the influence of corruption and crude oil theft on national security (fatalities) in Nigeria over
the past decade
95% Wald
Confidence
Interval
Hypothesis
Test
Paramet
er
B
Std. Error
Lower
Upper
Wald
Chi-
Square
df
Sig.
(Intercep
t)
-9.962
.449
-10.843 -9.082
491.403
1
.000
COTEC -6.081x10
-5
1.7613x10
-
5
-9.534x10
-
5
-2.629x10
-5
11.921
1
.001
PCI
19.589
.4956
18.618
20.560
1562.575
1
.000
Dependent Variable: Total_Fatalities
Model: (Intercept), Crude_oil_event_count (COTEC), Political-corruption index (PCI)
a. Fixed at the displayed value.
DISCUSSION
The Poisson regression results highlight the
influence of both crude oil theft and political
corruption on national security in Nigeria. These
findings offer critical insights into how economic
crimes and governance issues exacerbate
insecurity. The significant baseline level of security
events, as indicated by the intercept, implies that
Nigeria faces underlying security challenges that
persist even without the direct influence of crude
oil theft and corruption. This suggests that the
national security landscape is shaped by multiple
factors, some of which may be rooted in broader
systemic or structural issues within the country.
The positive and significant relationship between
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crude oil theft and security events underscores the
destabilising role that oil-related crimes play in
Nigeria's security dynamics. Although the marginal
increase in security events per oil theft incident is
small, the cumulative effect over time cannot be
ignored. These findings align with studies such as
Nwozor et al. (2023), who emphasise the broader
implications of oil theft on human security and
environmental degradation in Nigeria’s Niger
Delta. Oil theft not only depletes national resources
but also fosters conditions of instability that enable
further criminal activities and conflict.
However, the surprising negative relationship
between crude oil theft and fatalities adds a layer
of complexity. While theft increases violence, it
minimally reduces fatalities. This suggests that oil-
related crimes might be evolving into less overtly
violent operations, perhaps involving more covert
activities that result in fewer immediate fatalities.
This result contrasts with the findings of Umar and
Mohammed (2021), who emphasise the economic
damage of oil theft but do not directly link it to a
reduction in fatalities.
In contrast, political corruption exhibits dual
effects. The significant negative relationship
between political corruption and violent events
suggests that corruption may sometimes suppress
overt violence. This could be because corrupt
officials attempt to maintain a fragile order,
preventing violent outbreaks that might destabilise
their control. Yet, the deeper implication of this
finding reveals how corruption erodes governance
and law enforcement. As corruption rises,
weakened
institutions
and
governance
mechanisms reduce the state’s ability to effectively
respond to security threats. This mirrors
Shimawua (2020), who highlighted how
corruption has crippled Nigeria’s military efforts,
prolonging conflicts like the Boko Haram
insurgency.
Moreso, the relationship between political
corruption and violent events could be explained
by the notion that corruption may sometimes act as
a stabilising force. In corrupt systems, those in
power might suppress violence to maintain order
and avoid public attention that could threaten their
positions. Corruption could also divert resources
away from overt criminal activities, leading to
fewer visible violent incidents, although deeper
systemic issues remain unresolved. The significant
positive relationship between political corruption
and fatalities underscores the deadly consequences
of weakened governance. As corruption escalates,
lawlessness increases, leading to more fatal
security events. This highlights the urgent need for
anti-corruption reforms to improve national
security. The findings align with Yahaya et al.
(2020), who observed that corruption exacerbates
environmental degradation, further demonstrating
the far-reaching impacts of corruption on public
safety. The strong correlation between corruption
and fatalities reinforces the need for stronger,
more transparent institutions to combat
corruption and its fatal effects. Overall, while crude
oil theft and political corruption are major drivers
of insecurity in Nigeria, they affect different
security metrics in distinct ways. Oil theft
contributes to insecurity through non-lethal
means, while corruption intensifies violence and
lawlessness, resulting in higher fatality rates. This
multifaceted nature of Nigeria’s security challenges
demands comprehensive strategies that tackle
both economic crimes and governance failures.
CONCLUSIONS
The regression analysis provides insight into the
complex relationship between political corruption,
crude oil theft, and violent events in Nigeria. The
model shows that even in the absence of these
variables, there is a baseline level of violence,
indicating that factors beyond corruption and oil
theft contribute to national security challenges.
The analysis reveals that crude oil theft is
positively correlated with violent events, meaning
that as oil theft increases, so does the level of
violence. This suggests that illegal activities tied to
the oil industry, such as resource conflicts or
criminal syndicates, are significant drivers of
violence in the country. Crude oil theft fuels unrest,
likely due to competition over valuable resources
or the funding of militant groups through illegal
proceeds.
Conversely, the relationship between political
corruption and violent events is negative,
indicating that as corruption increases, violent
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events decrease. Although counterintuitive, this
could be explained by the notion that corruption
may sometimes act as a stabilising force. In corrupt
systems, those in power might suppress violence to
maintain order and avoid public attention that
could threaten their positions. Corruption could
also divert resources away from overt criminal
activities, leading to fewer visible violent incidents,
although deeper systemic issues remain
unresolved. These findings suggest that while
crude oil theft directly contributes to insecurity,
political corruption may reduce overt violence by
maintaining a fragile stability. However,
addressing these issues requires a nuanced
approach. Policymakers must recognise that
combating corruption and oil theft alone will not be
sufficient to ensure national security; instead,
strategies
should
tackle
both
issues
simultaneously, understanding that reducing
visible violence does not always eliminate the
underlying causes of insecurity.
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