The USA Journals Volume 03 Issue 04-2021
99
The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
(ISSN
–
2693-0803)
Published:
April 30, 2021 |
Pages:
99-110
Doi:
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‘
ABSTRACT
The main content of the article is currently concerned only with the problems of methodology and
methodology of political forecasting: the ability to see political change adequately is one of the main
conditions for the correct view of political management strategies and tactics, targeted influence on
political processes. The article analyzes such issues as the strength and continuity of the "forecasting
- planning - management" chain, as the most important factor in achieving current and long-term goals
and objectives for the political subsystem, institutions, entities and society as a whole. It also analyzes
the experience of developed countries in determining the status of forecasting efficiency analysis
centers through their relations with various government agencies.
KEYWORDS
Political forecasting, reliability, level of forecasts, political system, strategy, strategic thinking, tactics,
futurology, military strategy, real space, information space, virtual space, political decision,
forecasting, think tank, future studies, future research, collective decision making,
Forecasting is a very complex science, especially
if they relate to the future
(Nils Bor)
Political Forecasting As An Integral Part Of Optimizing Public
Strategic Management
Fatkhulla Habibullaevich Hikmatov
Doctor Of Philosophy (PhD) On Political Sciences, Tashkent State Technical University,
Uzbekistan
Journal
Website:
http://usajournalshub.c
om/index,php/tajpslc
Copyright:
Original
content from this work
may be used under the
terms of the creative
commons
attributes
4.0 licence.
The USA Journals Volume 03 Issue 04-2021
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The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
(ISSN
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2693-0803)
Published:
April 30, 2021 |
Pages:
99-110
Doi:
https://doi.org/10.37547/tajpslc/Volume03Issue04-16
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INTRODUCTION
Public policy is extremely important role in
public life. It is she who has the goal of timely
identifying
urgent
problems
of
the
development of society, analyzing them,
establishing the causes of their occurrence,
complexity,
inconsistency
and
finding
solutions. In the field of state policy,
appropriate state-political decisions are made
to solve a specific problem, and appropriate
programs and instruments are developed. The
process of developing and implementing
public policy is multifaceted and diversified.
One of the most important links in this process
is political forecasting. A successful political
forecast provides a realistic vision of reality
and, accordingly, forms the basis for making a
decision with an understanding of what is
happening or should be realized. The lack of
scientific and analytical support for state policy
determines the slow pace and difficulties of the
development of society. The consequence of
this, in particular, is that the problems of
society are recognized and become the subject
of theoretical research and practical solutions
after they have become aggravated.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
In the modern world, the problems of
methodology and methodology of political
forecasting are of interest not only among
experts in this field, but the ability to see
political change adequately is analyzed as one
of the main conditions for the correct
construction of political governance strategies
and tactics. The strength and continuity of the
"forecasting - planning - management" chain is
1
Кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных
волн Москва.: изд-ва «Учитель», 2016. Под ред. Л.
Е. Гринина, А. В. Коротаева, Р. С. Гринберга.
С-
34.
the
most
important
factor
in
the
implementation of current and long-term goals
and objectives for a particular political
subsystem, institution, entity, society as a
whole.
When embarking on research in the field of
methodology and methodology of political
forecasting, it is first necessary to identify and
formulate the main parameters of the
requirements for political forecasting today, its
characteristic aspects as a separate type of
probabilistic political knowledge. In addition,
the adoption of political decisions of strategic
importance in modern Uzbekistan requires a
clear picture of the specific conditions in which
the political system operates, the course of
political processes.
There are a number of terms related to
knowing the future in the scientific literature:
foresight, prediction, prediction, forecasting,
futurology, and so on. However, since the
goals and objectives of our research do not
include a comprehensive analysis of this issue,
i.e., the essence of the terms, we will focus only
on issues within the scope of research. The
difference between prediction and forecasting
is that prediction is a pre-reflection of reality
based on an understanding of the laws of
nature, society, and thought, and prediction is
a scientifically based idea of what may happen
to an object in the future or alternative ways
and deadlines
1
.
Political forecasting as a field of theoretical and
practical knowledge studies the dynamic
change of the political system, its structure and
elements over time. In other words, its subject
is political processes
2
. According to G.
Glezerman, foresight is focused on qualitative
changes in society in the future, and
2
Политическое управление. –Москва.: РАГС,
2009. С-37.
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forecasting - on quantitative changes
3
.
According to the American researcher L.
Bloomfield, if a prediction indicates events that
may occur (prediction); anticipation - classes of
events (anticipation); forecasting shows the
classes of events that may occur in the future
(forecasting)
4
.
Thus, general research shows that the concept
of "forecast" must meet a number of
requirements: 1) it must be probabilistic; 2)
scientifically based; 3) indicate the future state
of the object or alternative ways, deadlines,
resources to achieve its specific state; 4) an
indication of the forthcoming specific
situation.
We consider it expedient to consider some of
the views of the famous futurist G. Kan as a
master of strategic thinking. G. Kahn is known
for his works on American military strategy and
nuclear strategy. G. Kan Guddonovsky founded
the institute as the main type of "think tank"
and within the framework of his proposed
methodology divided it into 6 types according
to the level of prediction of events:
Resilience (climate, language, faith, etc.);
Gradually changing (natural resources,
demography, GDP, tax policy, etc.).
Predictor - (specific scenarios, key forces,
unsolvable problems, etc.).
Coincidences
(consequences
of
revolutions or wars, several types of
external pressure, spontaneous poverty).
Unaccounted for (including the causes or
excessive complexity of unknown and
unanalyzed mechanisms)
5
.
3
Ахременко А. С. Политический анализ и
прогнозирование. Введение в количественные
методы.М.: Изд, Московского университета,
2012.С-15.
4
Bloomfield L. P. Short-order futures: short-range
forecasting in foreign affairs / Forecasting in
international relations: Theory, Methods, Problems,
Prospects. San Francisco, 1978. P- 278-289.
5
Kahn Н. "History happens in «Кmight lines and
curves" // American Outlook. - 1999. – Winter
At present, there is no single opinion on the
relationship
between
forecasting
and
futurology. Often, these concepts are used as
synonyms. Interestingly, in a 1970 survey of
members of the Association for the Study of
the Future to find the most suitable names for
the field of future research, futurology came in
only sixth out of 22 names, with the first two on
the list “future studies” and “future
research”
6
. The effectiveness of political
forecasting is determined, firstly, by the degree
of reliability of forecasts, secondly, more
precisely, and thirdly, by whether one or
another forecast helps to increase the validity,
objectivity and effectiveness of political
decisions made on the basis of such
forecasting.
There are two main views among American
researchers on the level of reliability and
accuracy of forecasts, including foreign policy
forecasts. The first of these views is that it is
practically impossible to predict foreign policy
processes as a result of their complexity, but
only to make some logical or intuitive
assumptions about the future. The second
view recognizes that the future can be
predicted by indicating the probability that
each of the alternatives will materialize
7
.
Representatives of the first point of view, K.
Norr,
O.
Morgenshtern,
question
the
correctness of the concepts of "foresight" and
"forecasting" in the study of international
relations and use a more acceptable concept,
such as "hypothesis". They point to the most
recent history to confirm their point of view,
noting that two world wars, the Vietnam
tragedy, the Israeli war with the Arabs (1967),
6
Paul Dickson. Think Tanks. — New York,
Atheneum, 1971. Перевод на русский язык с
сокращениями. — М., «Прогресс», 1976. //
Электронная публикация: Центр гуманитарных
технологий.
—
01.08.2006.
URL:
https://gtmarket.ru/laboratory/expertize/3026/3037
7
Кислицын С.В. Долгосрочное прогнозирование в
США: институциональный аспект. Анализ и
прогноз. Журнал ИМЭМО РАН, 2019, № 2, С-23.
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and similar events were not predicted
8
.
According to O. Helmer, the second view
related to the name of M. Kaplans is that as the
methods of forecasting develop, there may be
positive changes compared to the past
9
.
According to Bell, “because there are no
algorithms in politics, it is possible to evaluate
events in one country, just as the CIA does, but
it is not possible to accurately assess events
around the world and predict what they will
look like in the future
10
.
According to S. Sargsyan and L. Galvanov, the
level of reliability and accuracy of forecasts is
affected by the following factors: 1) a
significant reduction in prognostic estimates
due to extreme caution; 2) excessive
prognostic estimates; 3) unpredictability of the
future due to narrow vision and lack of
information about the projected object; 4) not
to be critical of authoritative opinions; 5)
unclear definition of relationships and
interactions; 6) inability to predict the future of
the system at a higher level than the projected
object
11
.
Thus, the accuracy and reliability of forecasting
are theories based on analysis; completeness
and reliability of primary data; how the forecast
is conducted; who will make the forecast will
also depend on random factors.
The geopolitical concept that Collins expressed
in 1980 that the sources of national integration
and disintegration would be mainly in the field
8
Klaus Knorr and Oskar Morgenstern, Science and
Defense: Some Thoughts on Military Research and
Development, Center of International Studies,
Princeton University, Policy Memorandurn No. 32,
February 18, 1965.
9
Helmer O.
Political Analysis of the Future. P.; L.,
1969. P-31.
Kaplan М.
System and Process in
International Politics. New York., 1957.P-63.
10
Белл Д. Грядущее постиндустриальное
of material factors such as military power and
geographical location (e.g., the period of
instability in the USSR and the long-term
disintegration of the "Russian Empire", as well
as the loss of the USSR's control over Eastern
Europe and its own collapse. had predicted
that it would bring
12
. As a result, although he
made a mistake in time, R. Collins clearly
predicted a period of instability in the USSR
13
.
According to U.S. researcher F. Schrodt, the
biggest failures in predicting U.S. foreign policy
in the 20th century include Pearl Harbor,
predictions of the government’s achievements
in Vietnam until 1968, and defeats in predicting
the end of the Cold War. It failed to predict the
end of the Cold War and the impending
collapse of the Soviet system, despite the
efforts of thousands of analysts who used
information worth tens of billions of dollars a
year, the observations of journalists and
others, and the ideological assumptions that
communism was in fact flawed and ineffective.
According to Schrodt, such a failure in
forecasting US foreign policy was due, on the
one hand, to the inability of analysts who had
devoted their lives to the study of the
Communist Party of the Soviet Union to
imagine their lives without it, and, on the other,
to the "Soviet threat." was dependent. As a
result, this defeat, according to F. Schrodt, cost
the United States an additional $ 500 billion,
11
Саркисян
С.А.,
Голованов
Л.В.
Прогнозирование
развития
больших
систем. Серия Математическая статистика для
экономистов М. Статистика 1975г. С-92.
12
Randall Collins What Does Conflict Theory Predict
about America's Future? 1993 Presidential Address
Sociological Perspectives, Vol. 36, No. 4. published
by University of California Press. (Winter, 1993), P-
296.
13
Randall Collins What Does Conflict Theory Predict
about America's Future? 1993 Presidential Address
Sociological Perspectives, Vol. 36, No. 4. published
by University of California Press. (Winter, 1993), P-
297
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and
Eastern
Europe
remained
under
communist control for another 5-7 years
14
.
Another situation should not be overlooked.
That is, another common element of the last
period is the problem of international
processes of collective decision-making. As an
example, when the United States launched the
war against Iraq, it withdrew from the
collective decision-making process, which
angered many international actors. Decision-
making at the domestic political level is also
quite problematic, as it collides with internal
and external military priorities. In Iraq and
Vietnam, for example, intelligence experts
have spoken out against the war. However,
many experiments show that important
decisions are made under political pressure
and the opinion of experts is not taken into
account. For example, when the U.S. military
invaded a part of Cuba, the population thought
it did not protect the Castro regime, but went
astray
15
. The complexity of the decision-making
process, both externally and internally, is
related to the complexity of analyzes in the
field of internal security.
The former U.S. President George W. Bush also
explores the challenges faced by the
administration in decision-making: policy must
be presented to an internal and external
audience, often the problem of presenting it
correctly arises because both audiences must
be satisfied; there is a gap between theory and
14
Schrodt P. A. Forecasts and Contingencies: From
Methodology to Policy. "Political Utility and
Fundamental Research: The Problem of Pasteur's
Quadrant" at the American Political Science
Association meetings, Boston, 29 August -1
September 2002. P-17
15
Schrodt P. A. Forecasts and Contingencies: From
Methodology to Policy. "Political Utility and
Fundamental Research: The Problem of Pasteur's
Quadrant" at the American Political Science
Association meetings, Boston, 29 August -1
September 2002. P-18
16
Moore J. a.o. Bush’s brain. How Karl Rove made
George W. Bush presidential. Hoboken, New Jersey,
2003. P- 46.
practice in the implementation of domestic
and foreign policy; there is a difference
between goals and means in domestic and
foreign policy
16
. For example, even though the
defense budget has a multi-billion-dollar
potential, it failed to stop 19 terrorists, and this
showed that the detention policy was wrong
17
.
The international policy pursued by the United
States today without the consent of
international institutions is causing a great deal
of discontent. Thus, the accuracy of the
forecasts will depend on who makes the
forecast, i.e., the forecaster. According to their
functions, experts distinguish four main types
of US foreign policy forecasting: 1) forecasting
of foreign policy aimed at creating a single
political-philosophical vision of the future in
certain groups of people (works of D. Bell, Z.
Brzezinski and others)
18
;
2) forecasting aimed at mobilizing certain
groups of people or society as a whole for this
or that action (E. Toffler's works, lectures to
the Club of Rome, etc.)
19
; 3) forecasting aimed
at developing theories of international
relations, developing hypotheses, concepts
and testing (for example, in 1966-1967 by
Princeton University researchers Ch. Hermann
and N. Hermann using the method of
simulation games. Retrospective analysis of
the probability of the First World War and
17
Moore J. a.o. Bush’s brain. How Karl Rove made
George W. Bush presidential. Hoboken, New Jersey,
2003. P- 46.
Moore J. a.o. Bush’s brain. How Karl Rove made
George W. Bush presidential. Hoboken, New Jersey,
2003. P- 47.
18
Белл Д. Грядущее постиндустриальное
общество. Опыт социального прогнозирования /
Перевод с англ. под ред. В.Л. Иноземцева. Москва,
Academia, 1999 // Свободная мысль-XXI. 2000. №
12. С. 60-70; Бжезинский Зб. Стратегический
взгляд. Америка и кризис глобальной власти. –
Москва.: АСТ, 2013. С-85.
19
Тоффлер Э. Шок будущего: Пер. с англ. —
Москва.: «Издательство ACT», 2002. С-157.
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others)
20
; 4) forecasting aimed at optimizing
the adoption of foreign policy decisions
21
.
As the forecast period increases, its level of
accuracy decreases significantly, as with the
extension of the forecast period, the number
of factors that have not been observed in the
past and are not taken into account in the
analysis of the initial database of forecast data
increases. In long-term forecasting, the
number of variables that can affect the
prognosis increases as we move away from the
present. Therefore, other methods are less
commonly used in long-term forecasting than
some methods.
The effectiveness of forecasting is determined
by the status of the analysis center, its relations
with various government agencies. Often,
decisions of the highest bodies of state power
are made on the basis of research conducted
by think tanks, because such centers take into
account a broader aspect, they know the
details of issues discussed in interdepartmental
agreements and interstate negotiations, they
use operational information. As a result, it is
incorrect to assume that the “independent” or
“public” analysis is much better than the pre-
agency, institutionally linked analysis, as the
level of reliability and accuracy is determined
by the adequacy of the information. Schrodt
disagrees that the data used by "academic"
researchers is not sufficient for forecasting
22
. F.
Schrodt cites confidential analysis data as an
example
23
. Such reports spoke of the USSR as
a strong rival, contrary to the information used
by journalists and tourists about the imminent
20
Political Game Theory: An Introduction (Analytical
Methods for Social Research) 1st Edition by Nolan Mc
Carty, Adam Meirowitz . Cambridge University Press;
1 edition (January 8, 2007) P-102.
21
Political Game Theory: An Introduction (Analytical
Methods for Social Research) 1st Edition by Nolan Mc
Carty, Adam Meirowitz . Cambridge University Press;
1 edition (January 8, 2007) P-102.
22
Schrodt P. A. Forecasts and Contingencies: From
Methodology to Policy. "Political Utility and
Fundamental Research: The Problem of Pasteur's
Quadrant"
at
the
American
Political
collapse of the Soviet system during
Gorbachev's rule. However, in our opinion,
such an assertion of F. Schrodt is not about the
sufficiency of the initial information, but rather
about the issue of their reliability and
completeness.
Furthermore, American researcher Ch. Cooper
points out that in the second half of 1972,
independent analysis centers were tasked
incorrectly as a reason for lack of forecasts for
political decision-making, as independent
analysis centers were tasked by less informed
individuals due to their lower office or distance
from the center. More informed people, on the
other hand, are unable to work with surface
researchers due to over-employment
24
. In
particular, the effectiveness of foreign policy
forecasting by think tanks and analysts:
constructive interaction with the foreign policy
apparatus and the political community (direct
contacts with government agencies, liaison
with the legislature, participation in various
diplomatic receptions by think tanks and
analysts) etc.); formation of foreign policy
discourse (public speeches of representatives
of analytical centers and analysts at meetings
of major universities, academic forums,
professional associations, articles of analytical
centers and analysts); public appearances in
the media will also increase due to relevance
and timeliness.
According to Cooper, effectiveness is
determined not only by how well researchers
make predictions, but also by how seriously
Science Association meetings, Boston, 29 August -1
September 2002. P-23.
23
Schrodt P. A. Forecasts and Contingencies: From
Methodology to Policy. "Political Utility and
Fundamental Research: The Problem of Pasteur's
Quadrant"
at
the
American
Political
Science Association meetings, Boston, 29 August -1
September 2002. P-23.
24
Cooper, Charles (ed.) (1973) Science Technology
and Development: The Political Economy of
Technical Advance in Underdeveloped Countries.
London: Frank Cass. P-107.
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key officials in the political hierarchy take such
predictions
25
.
Politicians take into account the results of
prognostic research when making decisions,
but do not always follow them. In particular, on
the eve of the US withdrawal of troops from
Cambodia in April-May 1970, G. Kissinger
played an imitation or practical game with five
members of his staff, who were supposed to
oppose the entry of troops
26
. The task of this
game was to determine the factors that would
oppose this or that movement in the United
States. As a result, evidence was presented
during the game against the incursion of U.S.
troops into Cambodia (including the possibility
that such a move could lead to an escalation of
the war in Indochina and negative relations
within the country and around the world). But
despite the fact that the outcome of the game
was presented to US President R. Nixon, the
president personally decided to bring in
troops. As a result, "the operation was
successful from a military point of view, but in
fact it was not necessary, and politically
wrong"
27
.
In addition, one of the key issues in forecasting
effectiveness is that significant changes, often
in the form of reforms, are planned at the
higher levels of government, and their
implementation takes place at the level of
primary levels. As a result, the implementation
of the decisions made will depend not only on
the real and probable views of the ruling elite,
but also on the mass processes taking place at
the grassroots level.
Strategy differs from tactics in that it works
within a multifaceted space. As a result, an
inter-level effect is formed, in which it is
understood that actions in one space can yield
25
Development studies revisited. Twenty-five Years
of The Journal of Development Studies.With an
Introduction by Charles Cooper and E.V.K.
FitzGerald. Third Avenue, New York. 2016. P 125
26
Генри Киссинджер. Дипломатия.1994.
Пер:
В.
Н. Верченко. Издательство АСТ. 2017. С-340.
results in another. The opponent / rival may not
even feel the danger because he can see
everything within one space.
Strategy looks to the future, and tactics look to
the present. Today has certain limits, beyond
which the situation will change radically, that
is, the transition to the future will take place.
From today, the future can only be seen
through this boundary. That is, strategy exists
in virtual space and tactics in real space.
It should not be overlooked that it is the virtual
space that shapes the real space to the desired
level. That is why the struggle for the virtual
space of countries is underway. Old heroes,
ideologies, values are denied, they are weakly
described, the virtual space of an entire
country is occupied and reshaped. For
example, Lenin used to be a hero on stage and
in cinema, but today he cannot be a hero.
At the same time in the space is not only
planning the situation, but also a clear struggle.
Working in a virtual space allows:
Setting goals for the enemy;
Change their goals for him;
To create a false image in him to change
the purpose of the enemy;
Change the decision-making process
28
.
As a result, in addition to waging war without
declaring it to the opponent, it is also possible
to end it without announcing that the
opponent has been defeated.
Today, the structure of motion is created in 3
interconnected spaces: real space, information
space, and virtual space. As we saw above, the
goal is to occupy virtual space, because
27
Генри Киссинджер. Дипломатия.1994.
Пер:
В.
Н. Верченко. Издательство АСТ. 2017. С- 345.
28
Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for
Modeling and Simulation. Paul K. Davis, Amy
Henninger. RAND National Defense Research
Institute. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation
2007. P- 78
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through it is possible to interact with other
spaces.
The information space is located between the
real and virtual space and can play the role of
changing two spaces. While information space
is characterized by dynamic changes, physical
and virtual space change slowly.
Rael space
Information space
Virtual space
For example, K. Rove believes that at the heart
of everything lies the control of the country's
information agenda
29
. This is understandable
because information space can define the
internal environment of both real and virtual
space. Here is the answer from a person who
was one of Carl Rove’s employees. Carl Rove
asked his staffer, "Do the American people
compare the war on terrorism to World War
II?" The employee replies after a while: "No,
they don't think so, they want us to think this
war is like World War II." Taking World War II as
an example, the focus is on information and
ideological support
30
. If the information space
is in conflict with the virtual space, the virtual
space loses the information space.
The following directions for the formation of
the future can be identified: the formation of a
virtual space under the control of real space;
shaping real space under virtual space control.
For example, the revolution of 1917 in Russia,
the policy of reconstruction in 1985-1991
reshaped reality, changed the physical space.
Changes in virtual space have changed real
space.
29
Moore J.
Bush’s brain. How Karl Rove made
George W. Bush presidential. – Hoboken, New
Jersey., 2003 P-273.
30
Moore J.
Bush’s brain. How Karl Rove made
George W. Bush presidential. – Hoboken, New
Jersey., 2003 P-274.
31
Hoffman D.E.
Reagan approved plan to sabotage
Soviets. Book recounts ('old War program that made
Another example is that at the end of the
twentieth century, CNN news was shaping
public opinion, and under its pressure,
Americans were forced to withdraw their
troops from Somalia
31
. So, before the war in
Afghanistan, Powell advised the military to stay
away from CNN. Before the war in Afghanistan,
J. Bush Jr. formed his own communicative
team, which included K. Rice, K. Hughes, D.
Barlet, A. Fleischer. The purpose of the
communicative command was to form an
appropriate understanding in the American
people, to explain the purposes of the White
House
32
. The success of this persuasion
campaign would determine the success of the
White House. "I'm a Vietnamese product,"
Bush said. "I remember unsupported war
presidents at a time when the nation was
divided." The reason was that America was
defeated in the virtual space, so it was forced
to retreat in the real space
33
. Henson advises
considering
the
military,
diplomatic,
philosophical, and cultural aspects of war
34
.
Because war is fought on all fronts.
The fight against uncertainty is based on the
virtual component as the main task of the
technology go haywire // Washington Post. -2004. -
February 27
32
Woodward В.
Bush at war. - New York etc., 2002. -
P. 95
33
Woodward В. Bush at war. - New York etc., 2002.
– P-87.
34
Hanson V.D. Ripples of battle. How wars of the past
still determine how we fight, how we live and how we
I think. - New York etc., 2003. – P-199.
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strategy. Speaking about Rumsfeld, Deputy
Secretary of Defense D. Fayette said: “His big
strategic issue is uncertainty. The need for
strategic work with uncertainty. The inability to
predict the future is the “limit of our
knowledge and intellect”. He notes that he
dislikes Rumsfeld’s prediction: “virtual filling;
structuring; reliability assessment. We fill in the
uncertainties with our imaginations, then
structure them, and then determine their level
of reliability
35
.
Another variant of virtual strategic thinking
was proposed by T. Sauvel, who called it
"playing beyond the first step"
36
. However,
many social problems are solved through
compromises that can occur at a later stage.
An example of this is the findings of the
American scientist Justin McCurry. He
estimates that by 2020, the number of
unmarried men in China will reach 40 million. In
China, there was one child policy per family,
with families mostly wanting to have a son. As
a result, boys began to make up a much larger
number than girls. To prevent this problem,
posters saying “Girls are as good as boys” were
hung in some villages
37
. That is, virtual space is
in conflict with real space, creating a state of
crisis. The issue of virtuality is relevant for post-
Soviet countries as they have lost their heroes.
Without a hero, there will be no influence of
national ideology.
Therefore, the following specific actions
should be taken: “check” the heroes in the
interior; a "check" of external heroes present
in the virtual space; analysis of ways to create
new heroes. If we create our own hero, we can
form our own virtual space variant with our
own desires and objections. The “virtual
35
Fallow J. Blind into Baghdad // Allanlic. - 2004. -
January/February
36
Goode S. Sowell reaches beyond rhetorics //
www.insightinag.com
37
Justin McCurry. а.о. 40 m bachelors and no
woman... the birth of new problem for China //
Guardian. - 2004. - March 9
platform” defends what it knows to be true in
terms of reality.
This can also be seen in the arguments given by
D. Fram and R. Pearl, who try to justify the
formation in this direction for the following
reasons: “society describes women as slaves,
teaches men to be strict towards women;
ignorance
breeds
fanaticism,
ignorance
prevails everywhere in a society that keeps
women ignorant; in different cultures,
unemployed men cannot marry, and the
inability of men to have sex causes young men
to become angry; in a society where women
have political rights, they oppose social discord
and ideological radicalism ”
38
. In Pakistan, 33%
of women do not know how to read, so the
United States supports a UN program that
provides child education in the country. For
example, in practice, the "fat for reading"
program, according to which every girl who
studies at school for 20 days receives 4 liters of
fat
39
. We can see that the transformation of
mass consciousness is accomplished through
the transformation of women’s consciousness.
Men’s consciousness cannot be changed
because it has been formed.
P. Wolfowitz points out that half of the
population of Arab countries is women and this
is one of the ways to transform the mass
consciousness. The adoption of laws banning
Muslims from wearing headscarves in French
schools is also one of these areas. Loss of
external signs of a foreign system is also very
important, because in this way it is possible to
enter or swallow a foreign system. A Muslim
woman without a headscarf is easily accepted
by French society, or the French welcome
modern Arab women well
40
.
38
Frum D., Perle R. An end to evil. How to win the
war on terror. - New York, 2003. – P-150.
39
Deputy secretary Wolfowitz interview with the
New Yorker Festival // www.defenselink.mil
40
Deputy secretary Wolfowitz interview with the
New Yorker Festival // www.defenselink.mil
The USA Journals Volume 03 Issue 04-2021
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The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology
(ISSN
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2693-0803)
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April 30, 2021 |
Pages:
99-110
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What should the strategy do to shape the
future? To answer the question, we can cite the
following set of situations: merging two
separate objects; transition to the future from
a real object that has not yet taken place in
practice; creating a context that facilitates the
appearance of the object; creating a context
that does not facilitate the appearance of the
object; create a set of objects of the same type;
Forming an object with unique properties.
CONCLUSION/RECOMMENDATIONS
The analysis of the issues raised in this part of
the study allows us to draw the following
conclusions. Forecasting is a very important
function of managing political events, has a
significant impact on the main directions of
political development, reflects the whole set of
complex external and internal connections and
connections between different spheres of
political life. The principles of political
forecasting stem from the nature of political
activity and the characteristics of forecasting
activities in the structure of strategic
development and management of political
activity.
Political practice shows that the degree of
validity of a decision made at any level of
strategic management is determined by the
number of alternatives considered and the
depth of forecasting. The promotion of the
principle of alternative as one of the most
important principles of political forecasting is
related to this situation.
Today, in practice, all events, processes, events
are evaluated in terms of alternatives. The
formation of alternatives must take into
account the impact of specific policy
objectives.
It should be noted that today, on the one hand,
the problems of political forecasting in the
applied political science of our country are
poorly
studied
at
the
scientific
and
methodological level. On the other hand, there
is little demand for professional political
forecasting methods in the activities of
organizations that serve to make political
decisions and implement them: analytical
departments of public administration, political
parties,
political
consultation
centers.
Scientifically based forecasting and analytical
activities are often regarded by leaders at
various levels as an excessive "luxury" that is
still not worth the involvement of material,
human and information resources. At the same
time, the consequences of various political
crises that have shaken the world community
and Uzbekistan in recent years, without
exaggeration, the adoption of technology of
political forecasting - a matter of life and death
for
the
state,
civil
society,
political
organizations and private entrepreneurship.
Based on the above analysis, it can be noted
that,
first
, it is impossible to effectively manage
the political activity of the state without
forecasting
the
main
trends
in
the
development of political forecasting.
Second
,
forecasting is a very important and integral
part of strategic planning and management.
Third
, political forecasting based on the
considered principles and approaches is a
subject-practical activity aimed at providing
scientifically
developed,
systematic
and
reliable forecasts of political development.
Fourth, due to its functional orientation and
unity of theoretical basis, the "forecasting -
planning - management" link is a single system,
the interconnectedness and complementarity
of its elements is a very important factor in the
effective implementation of strategic goals
and objectives in political activity.
The selection of strategies, decision-making,
and their implementation will not be effective
enough without constant and reliable
forecasting.
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