All articles - Demography

The aim of research work is to demonstrate the demographic processes geographic features and to develop the main trends of the regions demographic modernization.
The object of the research work is the demographic potential of the Republic of Uzbekistan and its territorial- and- demographic structure.
Scientific novelty of the research work is as follows:
here have been proved the indicators of demographic security, affecting sustainable development, and its social-economic effects on a territories scale;
have been improved the methodological principles of geodemographic and demographic studies in respect of the social-demographic development modifications;
have been developed the territory demographic content measures (TDM) according to general population and gender and age structure, have been defined the demogeographic features of the territorial localities organization;
based on population mortality simulation and the average expected lifespan according the method of de Moivre has been described its cross correlation and dynamics;
have been developed the suggestions and recommendations in terms of demographic problems to be solved in matters of population employment and job market, as well as in respect of the monitoring of population opportunities programme;
have been developed the measures of demographic forecast, based on average and long-term forward looking indicators of demographic development.
Implementation of the research results. Based on scientific suggestions and recommendations in terms of territorial features demographical processes shifts:
The results of short-term and medium-term demographic forecast have been introduced into the practice of the Ministry of Economy (refer of the Ministry of Economy №5-1/20-1825 from December 9 of 2010 year). The usage of this survey results allowed to define the measures of demographic forecast in the Republic of Uzbekistan and do monitoring of Work places Swap Programme in 2011 and population employment assurance:
Developments based on indicators system of demographic security and territory demographic content level were used by Institute for Socio studies under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the organization of population life quality level monitoring system and development «Design procedure of TDC level» (refer of the Institute for Social studies № 01/04-322 from November 8 of 2016). The survey results worked for attention strengthening in terms of demographic security, assurance of high degree efficiency of demographic content in the regions;
Aimed to new work places swap and population employment assurance in the Republic the demographic capacity values in terms of social-economic industries and labour market have been introduced into the Ministry of Labour system (refer to the Ministry of Labour and suggestions and recommendations allowed to solve the industry problems in terms of Demography, population employment and lab our market;
The demogeographic features of population territorial organization and localities, the scientific results on methodological principles of geodemographic and demographic studies improvement have been introduced into the content of State educational standard on the subject of «Human geography» for Bachelor’s Degree 5140600-Geography and job specification of this BD course (refer of «Uzstandard» agency №10/1584 from December 30 of 2016). Introduced materials allowed disclosing the main directions specifications, demography tools.
The structure and volume of the thesis. The thesis structure consists the introduction, six chapters, conclusion, reference literature list and annexes. The Thesis size is 206 pages.

The aim of the research work is to develop recommendations for the functional integration and improvement of mathematical models of the institutions of public opinion formation.
Scientific novelty of the research work:
correlation interconnections (quantitative and qualitative changes) between objective conditions and subjective factors of public opinion formation are proven;
factors influencing the formation of public opinion are mathematically modelled: «correlation»*, «Chi-square criterion» , «integral assessment» , «efficiency level» the effectiveness of the integration (significance factor, and power of connection) are shown;
recommendations and practical suggestions on improving the methodology for managing and controlling the institutions which are responsible for determining strategic objectives and formulating the expectations of public opinion (nationalized mental and individual-corporate characteristics) have been elaborated.

Aholining qarishi, tug'ilishning kamayishi va migratsiya shakllari kabi demografik o'zgarishlar butun dunyo bo'ylab mehnat bozorlarini qayta shakllantirmoqda. Aholining yoshi o'sib borayotgani va ishchi kuchining ishtiroki ko'rsatkichlari o'zgargan sari, bu tendensiyalar bandlik va iqtisodiy samaradorlikka chuqur ta'sir ko'rsatmoqda. Birlashgan Millatlar Tashkilotining ma'lumotlariga ko'ra, 2050 yilga borib 65 va undan katta yoshdagi dunyo aholisi ikki baravar ko'payib, 1,5 milliard kishiga yetadi va bu ko'plab mamlakatlarning yosh tarkibini sezilarli darajada o'zgartiradi [1]. Masalan, Yevropada mehnatga layoqatli aholi (15-64 yosh) doimiy ravishda kamayib bormoqda, bu ulush 2010 yildagi 66 foizdan 2021 yilda 63 foizga tushib, mehnat bozorlari va ijtimoiy himoya tizimlariga bosim o'tkazmoqda [2].

Jahonda va uning alohida hududlarida aholi soni yildan-yilga ko'payib bormoqda. Bunga bir tomondan, aholining tabiiy harakati sabab bo'layotgan bo'lsa, boshqa tomondan aholining mexanik harakati ham ta’sir ko'rsatmoqda. Ayniqsa, iqtisodiy rivojlangan mamlakatlarda aholi sonining tabiiy tug'ilish hisobiga emas, balki immigrantlar (ko'chib kelganlar) tufayli ko'payishi yaqqol misoldir. Bu esa nafaqat, hududning iqtisodiy, shu bilan birga ijtimoiy-demografik holatining o'zgarishiga ham sabab bo'ladi. Bulardan farqli ravishda, O'zbekiston Respublikasi aholisi soni asosan tabiiy ko'payish, xususan, tug'ilish evaziga ortib boryapti. Natijada, respublika demografik jarayonlari alohida hududlar doirasida tadqiq etish vazifasini belgilamoqda. Ayniqsa, geografik joylashuviga ko'ra ajralib turadigan viloyatlarda demografik rivojlanishda o'ziga xos o'zgarishlar ya’ni, aholining ko'payishi, aholi soni dinamikasi, migratsiya jarayonlarini to'g'risida ma’lumot to'plash, ularni chuqur ilmiy tadqiq qilish hamda kelgusi istiqbollarini belgilash muhim masalalardan biridir.

Hozirda rasmiy bandlikni ta’minlash, mamlakat ichida mehnat resurslarining hududiy harakatini hamda tashqi migratsiya jarayonlarini nazorat qilish dolzarb mavzuga aylanib bormoqda. Ichki va tashqi migratsiya jarayonlari bir-biriga uzviy bog'liq bo'lib, ichki migratsiya muammosini hal etish tashqi mehnat migratsiyasini kamayishiga olib keladi. Har ikki migratsiya turi birmuncha salbiy va ijobiy ta'sirlarni o'zida jamlaydi. Mamlakat budjetiga xorijiy valyuta tushumining ortishi, mamlakatda ishsizlik darajasining kamayishi, migrantning oila daromadlari oshishiga hamda turmush sharoiti yaxshilanishi, yangi ish, yangi muhit migrantlarning ish tajribasi va dunyoqarashini kengaytirishi kabilarni migratsiya jarayonlarining afzalliklari sifatida ko'rsak, migrantlarning huquqlarini buzilishi, odam savdosi va diskriminatsiya holatlari, mehnat resursiga qo'shilgan holda inson kapitalining chiqib ketishi, mehnat migrantlarining uzoq vaqt uyda bo'lmasligi uning oilaviy ajrimlar ko'payishi, ichki migratsiya doirasida, mamlakatning qishloq hududlarida yashovchi fuqarolari poytaxtga ko'chib kelishi va asosiy mehnatga layoqatli ishchi kuchining markazda to'planishi, ishlab chiqarish kuchining notekis taqsimlanishiga olib kelishi kabi misollar esa mehnat migratsiyasining salbiy tomonlarini ochib beradi.

Bugungi globallashuv davrida aholining turli maqsad va sabablar tufayli migratsion harakatchanligi ortganligi hech kimga sir emas. Ayniqsa, O'zbekistondek aholisi soni ko'payib borayotgan davlatlarda ko'plab yoshlarning ishlash hamda o'qish uchun dunyoning turli hududlariga bo'layotgan migratsiyasi bunga yaqqol misoldir. Uning afzal va salbiy jihatlari mavjud. Aholi migratsiyasining afzalliklari shundan iboratki, yaxshi va sifatli ta’lim olish, dunyoqarashni kengaytirish, ijtimoiy-madaniy o'zaro axborot almashinuvi va eng muhimi, mamlakatimiz rivojiga hissa qo'shish bilan ifodalansa, boshqa tomondan viloyatimizning qishloq joylaridagi yoshlarning keyinchalik ishlash hamda o'qishni davom ettirish, qolaversa doimiy yashash uchun shaharlarda qolib ketishi, demografik hamda ijtimoiy-iqtisodiy unumdorlikning pasayishiga olib keladi. Shu boisdan, aholining mexanik harakati va uning hududiy jihatlarini o'rganish, ayniqsa aholi migratsiyasining miqyosi bo'yicha tadqiqotlar olib borish dolzarb masalalardan hisoblanadi.