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ANALYSIS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING STEPS
Abdunazarova Shakhnoza Norquchqor qizi
Teacher of Termiz State University E-mail:
shahnoza.abdunazarova1530@gmail.com
Annotation.
This article investigates the main stages of econometric
modeling, their unique characteristics in various fields and the economy, as well as
the sequence and content of the stages of economic-mathematical modeling.
Keywords:
model, mathematical modeling, econometric modeling,
correlational-regression, hypothesis.
Modern economic theory also includes mathematical models and methods as
highly natural and necessary elements. The use of mathematics in economics allows
for the identification and formal description of the most important and significant
connections between economic variables and objects, and for the clear and concise
presentation of the rules, concepts, and conclusions of economic theory. The basis
of these methods is correlational-regressive analysis. As a system of specific
methods, econometrics began to develop by clarifying its problems while describing
the characteristics of economic variables and their interrelations." [1].
The formulation of the economic problem and its qualitative analysis.
This
stage includes isolating the most important characteristics and properties of the
object to be modeled and abstracting them from secondary ones; studying the main
connections that link the structure of the object and its elements; and forming (at
least initial) hypotheses that explain the state and development of the object[2].
Building the mathematical model.
This stage involves formalizing the
economic problem and expressing it in the form of definite mathematical
connections and relationships (functions, equations, etc.). Usually, the main
structure (type) of the mathematical model is determined first, and then the
components of this structure (a precise list of variables and parameters, the form of
connections) are specified.
Mathematical analysis of the model.
The goal of this stage is to identify the
general properties of the model. Here, pure mathematical methods of research are
used. In the analytical study of the model, issues such as the existence and
uniqueness of the solution, which variables (unknowns) may be included in the
solution, the relationships among them, how these variables change depending on
which ranges and initial conditions, the directions of their changes, and similar
problems are clarified. The analytical study of the model is preferable to empirical
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(numerical) research in that the conclusions obtained retain their validity under
various specific values of the model's external and internal parameters.
Nevertheless, models of complex economic objects are analytical with great
difficulty brought to research. General properties of the model by analytical methods
it is impossible to determine and it is desirable to simplify the model in cases that
lead to non-existent results, it is transferred to quantitative methods of research.
Preparation of preliminary data.
Strict to the modeling information system
makes demands. At the same time, the real possibilities of obtaining information are
in practice limits the selection of models intended for application. In this not only
the current possibility of preparing information (within specific deadlines), but also
relevant the cost of preparing information arrays is also taken into account. These
spending costs should not exceed the cost of using additional information [3].
Numerical solution.
This stage includes the development of algorithms for
the numerical solution of the problem, the creation of programs in EHMs and direct
calculations. Difficulties at this stage arise, first of all, from the large volume of
economic issues, the need to process very large information arrays. A quantitative
study can significantly complement the results of an analytical study, and for many
models it will be the only study performed. The class of economic problems that can
be solved by numerical methods is much wider than the class of problems that can
be analyzed analytically. At this final stage of the cycle, the question arises about
the accuracy and completeness of the modeling results and their level of practical
application. Mathematical methods of verification identify the incorrect structure of
models and thus narrow down the class of models that are likely to be correct [4].
In conclusion, econometric modeling is an informal analysis of theoretical
conclusions and numerical results obtained by means of the model, comparing them
with existing knowledge and real facts.
REFERENCES
1. Econometrics. Eliseeva I. I. Textbook for bachelor's and master's degrees.
Scientific school: St. Petersburg State University of Economics. St. Petersburg 2017,
449 p.
2. Khodiev V.Yu., Shodiev T.Sh., Berkinov V.V. Econometrics: Study guide.
-T.: ECONOMY, 2018. -178 p.
3. Aspen hysys software and technical complex and design of a hydrocracking
device in it. Kh Yusupov, S Farkhodov, Sh Doliyev - Eurasian Journal of Social...,
2022 - inacademy.uz.
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4. Quality of communal services–as a factor of economic development. K
Yusuf To‘xtasin og‘li, Sh Dolliyev- Galaxy International Interdisciplinary…, 2022
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