MAHALLIY BYUDJET DAROMADLARIGA INVESTITSUYALARNING TA’SIRINI BAHOLASH.

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123

MAHALLIY BYUDJET DAROMADLARIGA INVESTITSUYALARNING

TA’SIRINI BAHOLASH.

L.A. Djurayeva

Termiz davlat universiteti

Nabixonova Durdona Xamid qizi

Termiz davlat universiteti talabasi

Annotatsiya.

Ushbu maqolada Surxondaryo viloyatida mahalliy byudjeti

daromadlariga asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalarning ta’siri ekonometrik
tadqiq etilgan. Natijada avtoregressiya modeli tuzish orqali qisqa va uzoq muddatli
multiplikatorlar qiymatlari aniqlanib, xulosalar qilingan.

Kalit so‘zlar:

model, avtoregressiya, regressiya tenglamasi, styudent, t mezoni,

Fisher, instrumental o`zgaruvchi.

Mahalliy byudjet daromadlar bazasini shakllantirishda unga ta’sir etuvchi

omillarning ta’sir darajasini baholash alohida ahamiyatga ega. Bunda ekonometrik
modellardan foydalanish nafaqat istiqboldagi byudjet tushumlari, balki omillarning
ta’sir darajalarini aniqlash imkonini beradi.

Tadqiqot uchun 2010-2023 yillardagi Surxondaryo viloyati byudjet daromadlari

1

hamda asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsuyalar

2

hajmi to‘g‘risida ma’lumotlar 1-

jadalda keltirilgan.

1-jadval

Surxondaryo viloyati kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlik ishlab chiqarish

hajmi va asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmi qiymatlari

3

Yillar

Surxondaryo viloyati byudjet

daromadlari, mlrd so’m

Asosiy kapitalga

o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar,

mlrd so’m

n

y

x

1

To’rayev, B. E. (2024). Mahalliy byudjet daromadlarini ARIMA modeli asosida prognozlash. Journal of Universal

Science Research, 2(1), 141-149.

2

www.surxonstat.uz

– Surxondaryo viloyat Statistika boshqarmasi rasmiy sayti ma’lumotlari.

3

www.surxonstat.uz

– Surxondaryo viloyat Statistika boshqarmasi rasmiy sayti ma’lumotlari.

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124

2010

264

655,3

2011

351,6

802,9

2012

413,9

980,3

2013

514,9

1371,0

2014

571,7

1509,1

2015

699,1

1843,6

2016

835,5

2142,4

2017

969,8

3551,0

2018

1052,1

7240,6

2019

1844,7

11835,1

2020

1605,7

10068,2

2021

1993,2

12037,8

2022

2466,9

11569,4

2023*

2 962,8

17956,0

Investitsiyalarning mahalliy byudjet daromadlari hajmiga ta’sirini baholashda

avtoregressiya modellari istiqboldagi qisqa va uzoq muddatli o’zgarishlar darajalarini
aniqlash imkonini beradi.

𝐴𝑅(1) + 𝑥

ko’rinishidagi avtoregressiya modeli umumiy

ko’rinishi quyidagicha:

𝑦

𝑡

= 𝑎 + 𝑏

0

∙ 𝑥

𝑡

+ 𝑐

1

∙ 𝑦

𝑡−1

+ 𝑒

𝑡

(1)

Ushbu modelni hisoblash uchun dastlab instrumental o‘zgaruvchini baholovchi

model tuzish talab etiladi:

𝑦̂

𝑡−1

= 𝑑

0

+ 𝑑

1

⋅ 𝑥

𝑡−1

(2)

(2) modelni baholash uchun lag o’zgaruvchilar qiymatlari 2-jadvalda berilgan.

2-jadval

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125

Surxondaryo viloyati mahalliy byudjet daromadlari

hajmi va asosiy kapitalga

o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmi ko’rsatkichlarning

𝒕 − 𝟏

davrdagi

qiymatlari

4

Yillar

𝒚

𝒕

𝒙

𝒕

𝒚

𝒕−𝟏

𝒙

𝒕−𝟏

2010

264

655,3

-

-

2011

351,6

802,9

264

655,3

2012

413,9

980,3

351,6

802,9

2013

514,9

1371,0

413,9

980,3

2014

571,7

1509,1

514,9

1370,992

2015

699,1

1843,6

571,7

1509,144

2016

835,5

2142,4

699,1

1843,612

2017

969,8

3551,0

835,5

2142,412

2018

1052,1

7240,6

969,8

3551

2019

1844,7

11835,1

1052,1

7240,6

2020

1605,7

10068,2

1844,7

11835,07

2021

1993,2

12037,8

1605,7

10068,2

2022

2466,9

11569,4

1993,2

12037,76

2023

2 962,8

17956,0

2466,9

11569,4

Microsoft Excel dasturining «

Анализ данных

» paketidan foydalanib 2-

jadvaldagi ma’lumotlarning regression bog‘lanishini ko‘rib chiqamiz (3-jadval).

3-jadval

Regression tahlil natijalari

5

ВЫВОД
ИТОГОВ

4

Surxondaryo viloyati Statistika boshqarmasi

www.surxonstat.uz

sayti

5

Muallif ishlanmasi

ISSN (E): 2181-4570 ResearchBib Impact Factor: 6,4 / 2023 SJIF 2024 = 5.073/Volume-2, Issue-7

126

Регрессионная статистика

Множественн
ый R

0,958

R-квадрат

0,917

Нормированн
ый R-квадрат

0,910

Стандартная
ошибка

212,871

Наблюдения

13

Дисперсионны
й анализ

df

SS

MS

F

Значимос

ть F

Регрессия

1

5539643,5

83

5539643,5

83

122,249

2,68616E-

07

Остаток

11

498456,74

93

45314,249

94

Итого

12

6038100,3

32

Коэффи-

циенты

Стандарт

-ная

ошибка

t-ста-

тистика

P-

Значение

Нижние

95%

Y-пересечение

319,716

88,244

3,623

0,004

125,492

Переменная X
1

0,144

0,013

11,057

0,000

0,115

𝑦̂

𝑡−1

instrumental o‘zgaruvchini aniqlovchi regressiya tenglamasining umumiy

ko‘rinishi

𝑦̂

𝑡−1

= 319,716 + 0,144 ⋅ 𝑥

𝑡−1

(3)

ISSN (E): 2181-4570 ResearchBib Impact Factor: 6,4 / 2023 SJIF 2024 = 5.073/Volume-2, Issue-7

127

Ushbu (3) model bo’yicha Fisherning F mezonining hisoblangan qiymati

𝐹

ℎ𝑖𝑠

=

1013,663

ga teng, bu esa

𝑑𝑓

1

= 𝑚 = 1

va

𝑑𝑓

2

= 𝑛 − 1 − 1 = 12

erkinlik darajasida

hamda,

𝛼 = 0,05

ahamiyatlilik darajasida Fisherning jadval qiymati

𝐹

𝑗𝑎𝑑

= 4.75

dan

katta. Shuningdek (3) modelning parametrlari bo‘yicha Styudentning t mezoni

qiymatlari

𝑡

𝑑

0

= 2,882

hamda

𝑡

𝑑

1

= 10,083

ga teng, bu esa

𝛼 = 0,05

ahamiyatlilik

darajasida hamda

𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 𝑚 = 13

erkinlik darajasida Styudentning

𝑡

𝑗𝑎𝑑

= 2,16

dan

katta. Shu sababli model statistik ahamiyatga ega hisoblanadi.

𝑦̂

𝑡−1

instrumental o‘zgaruvchining nazariy qiymatlarini aniqlaymiz. (4-jadval).

4-jadval

Instrumental o’zgaruvchining nazariy qiymatlari

6

Yillar

𝒚

𝒕

𝒙

𝒕

𝒚

𝒕−𝟏

𝒙

𝒕−𝟏

𝒚

̂

𝒕−𝟏

2010

264

655,3

-

-

-

2011

351,6

802,9

264

655,3

413,9

2012

413,9

980,3

351,6

802,9

435,1

2013

514,9

1371,0

413,9

980,3

460,6

2014

571,7

1509,1

514,9

1370,992

516,7

2015

699,1

1843,6

571,7

1509,144

536,6

2016

835,5

2142,4

699,1

1843,612

584,6

2017

969,8

3551,0

835,5

2142,412

627,6

2018

1052,1

7240,6

969,8

3551

829,9

2019

1844,7

11835,1

1052,1

7240,6

1 360,1

2020

1605,7

10068,2

1844,7

11835,07

2 020,3

2021

1993,2

12037,8

1605,7

10068,2

1 766,4

2022

2466,9

11569,4

1993,2

12037,76

2 049,4

2023

2 962,8

17956,0

2466,9

11569,4

1 982,1

6

Surxondaryo viloyati Statistika boshqarmasi

www.surxonstat.uz

sayti

ISSN (E): 2181-4570 ResearchBib Impact Factor: 6,4 / 2023 SJIF 2024 = 5.073/Volume-2, Issue-7

128

4-jadvaldagi

𝑦

𝑡

,

𝑥

𝑡

hamda

𝑦̂

𝑡−1

o‘zgaruvchilar ishtirokida (1) modelni

baholadik. Buning uchun yana Microsoft excel imkoniyatlaridan foydalandik. Biroq (1)
model parametrlari statistik ahamiyatga ega bo’lmadi. Shu sababli (1) modelni
o’zgarmas ishtirokisiz baholadik (5-jadval).

3-jadval

Regression tahlil natijalari

7

ВЫВОД
ИТОГОВ

Регрессионная

статистика

Множественн
ый R

0,990

R-квадрат

0,979

Нормированн
ый R-квадрат

0,887

Стандартная
ошибка

233,097

Наблюдения

13

Дисперсионны
й анализ

df

SS

MS

F

Значимост

ь F

Регрессия

2

28341349,3

6

14170674,6

8

260,806

2,35521E-

09

Остаток

11

597676,645

3

54334,2404

8

Итого

13

28939026

7

Muallif ishlanmasi

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129

Коэффи-

циенты

Стандарт

-ная

ошибка

t-ста-

тистика

P-

Значение

Нижние

95%

Y-пересечение

0,000

#Н/Д

#Н/Д

#Н/Д

#Н/Д

Переменная X
1

0,091

0,028

3,264

0,008

0,030

Переменная X
2

0,587

0,191

3,071

0,011

0,166

Bundan avtoregressiya tenglamamiz:

𝑦

𝑡

= 0,091𝑥

𝑡

+ 0,587𝑦

𝑡−1

(4)

ko‘rinishga ega bo‘ladi. Model barcha parametrlari hamda modelning o’zi statistic
ahamiyatga ega.

Shunday qilib, (4) modelga ko’ra qisqa muddatli multiplikator

𝑏

0

= 0,091

ga

teng, ya’ni

𝑥

𝑡

- asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmining 1 mlrd so‘mga

ortishi

𝑦

𝑡

- mahalliy byudjet daromadlarini o‘rtacha 0,091 mlrd so‘mga oshiradi. Uzoq

muddatli multiplikator

𝑏 =

𝑏

𝑜

1−𝑐

=

0,091

1−0,587

= 0,22072

ga teng, ya’ni

𝑥

𝑡

ning 1 mlrd

so‘mga oshishi esa,

𝑦

𝑡

ni uzoq muddatda 0,22072 mlrd so‘mga oshiradi.

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