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ECOLOGICALLY BALANCED DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS:
ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND FORECASTING
Mamatkulova Feruza Abdurashidovna
1
Djalilova Gulnora Tulkunovna
2
Tashkent State Agrarian University Tashkent, Uzbekistan
1
National University of Uzbekistan Tashkent, Uzbekistan
2
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14991910
Abstract:
This articles examines some economic models used in ecology, as
well as factors of sustainable development of agroecosystems.
Key words:
ecology,
economic development,
environment, mathematical
modeling.
At the end of the 20th century, attitudes towards economic development
underwent significant changes. Improving the quality of life, creating
comfortable living conditions and preserving the natural environment became
priority issues. Achieving ecological and economic balance aimed at minimizing
the negative impact on the environment acquired particular importance within
the framework of the concept of sustainable development. The need for these
changes is due to the awareness of the limitation of natural resources and the
assimilation potential of the biosphere [1, 2].
The development of regional economies should be carried out taking into
account environmental factors, which involves the restoration and maintenance
of self-regulating natural systems. To solve this problem, it is necessary to use
modern economic and mathematical tools that allow finding a balance between
economic interests and the preservation of ecosystems [3].
Methodological approaches to modeling ecological and economic
processes.
When developing regional development strategies, the use of
economic and mathematical modeling plays an important role. Modern methods
allow not only to analyze the current situation, but also to predict the
consequences of decisions taken. Among the most common tools, we can
highlight:
Balance models used to determine the relationships between
economic sectors and their impact on natural resources [2].
Econometric models that use statistical data to identify patterns and
predict the development of situations [3].
Optimization models that allow us to evaluate various scenarios for
the inclusion of environmental factors in the economic and investment activities
of a region [4].
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Information and logical models that allow analyzing complex multi-
parameter systems and identifying optimal resource management strategies [5].
Modeling of soil fertility as a factor of sustainable development.
One
of the key aspects of the ecological and economic development of regions is the
maintenance of soil fertility. In scientific literature, soil fertility models are
considered as a set of their optimal properties that contribute to the rational
functioning of intrasoil processes, ensuring high productivity of agricultural
crops [6].
According to the research of Efremov V.V., soil fertility is determined not
only by its physical and chemical characteristics, but also by dynamic processes
occurring under the influence of anthropogenic and climatic factors [7]. Modern
fertility models allow us to predict the yield and quality of agricultural products,
identify limiting factors and develop effective strategies for managing
agroecosystems [8].
The main requirements for soil fertility models include:
Informativeness of indicators affecting productivity and product quality;
Possibility of comparative analysis of different soil covers and assessment
of factors limiting their productivity;
Forecasting the dynamics of changes over time;
Feasibility and cost-effectiveness of fertility management models [9].
The most promising method of analysis is information-logical modeling,
which allows taking into account complex relationships between soil
characteristics and the conditions of their use.
Forecasting ecological and economic development.
The use of aggregate
models for long-term forecasting is an important tool for sustainable regional
development. Forecasting models allow:
Assess the impact of economic activity on the environment [3];
Develop scenarios for balanced development taking into account
environmental and economic factors [4];
Optimize the use of land and water resources [5];
Develop adaptation strategies for agriculture in the conditions of
climate change [6].
Thus, modeling of ecological and economic processes allows not only to
predict the consequences of economic decisions, but also to develop effective
strategies for sustainable development of regions. The use of mathematical
methods in combination with modern information technologies opens up new
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opportunities for ensuring environmental safety and improving the life quality
of population.
List of references:
1.
Glazyrina I.P. Study of the quality of economic growth in the context of the
concept of sustainable development // Economics of nature management. 2006.
No. 4. P. 21-31.
2.
Druzhin P.V. Calculation of parameters of national and regional
aggregated production functions // Economics and mathematical methods.
1990. Vol. 26, No. 5. P. 891-896.
3.
Druzhin P.V., Moroshkina M.V., Shkiperova G.T. Models of ecological and
economic processes: optimization approach // Bulletin of Perm University.
2014. No. 2 (21). P. 16.
4.
Efremov V.V. Modeling of soil fertility of typical chernozem // In the book:
Models of soil fertility and methods of their development: scientific works of the
Soil Institute named after V.V. Dokuchaev. - M., 1982. - P. 78-84.
5.
Kulakovskaya T.N. Optimization of the agrochemical system of soil
nutrition of plants. - M.: Agropromizdat, 1990. - 218 p.
6.
Chesnyak G.Ya. Determination of the parameters of the properties of
powerful typical chernozems of different fertility levels // In the book:
Theoretical foundations and methods for determining the optimal parameters of
soil properties: scientific works of the Soil Institute named after V.V. Dokuchaev.
- M., 1980. - P. 42-50.
7.
Nosko B.S., Chesnyak G.Ya., Medvedev V.V. Fertility model of typical deep
chernozem of the left-bank forest-steppe of the Ukrainian SSR // In the book:
Soil fertility model and methods of their development: Scientific works of the
Soil Institute named after V.V. Dokuchaev. - Moscow, 1982. - Pp. 84-91.
8.
Pankova T.I. Fertility parameters of typical chernozem in an
agrolandscape, their relationship and the ecological role of soil organic matter:
diss. ... for a Ph.D. in biology. - Kursk, 2002. - 191 p.
9.
Shishov L.L. Fertility models of agroecosystems as the most important
component of soil-ecological studies // In the book: Soil fertility models and
methods of their development. - M., 1982. - P. 5-9.
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