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ANALYSIS OF THE FREIGHT TRAFFIC VOLUME OF THE TERMEZ
RAILWAY JUNCTION
Dilfuza Shakarova Ruzimuratovna
Termez State University base doctoral student
Termez, Uzbekistan
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14981232
Abstract:
In the article cargo turnover of the Termez railway junction of
the Surkhandarya region, an economic and statistical analysis of the
effectiveness of training highly qualified personnel is carried out. The system of
statistical indicators used in the analysis of dynamic series is also described.
Based on the economic and statistical analysis, scientifically based proposals and
recommendations have been developed.
Keywords:
dynamic series, absolute change, growth rate, growth rate,
quantitative assessment, average level, basic indicator, chain indicator.
Introduction.
It is known that our country is one of the few countries in the world that
does not have access to direct sea access. In this place, the main share of cargo
turnover in such countries falls on railways and highways. In this place, in
addition to raising the living well-being of the residents of the region by
increasing the activity of the southern regions, which is the main route to the
sea, as noted above, the driver in the cargo turnover remains an area.
Literature review.
On such issues as the effective use of rail transport in
our country, its economy, the organization of transport processes, the formation
of the theory of cargo systems, many famous domestic and foreign scientists
were engaged in the organization of rational cargo transportation systems and
the formation of tasks in various directions of the transport system (railway
Trasport, motor transport, aviation, etc.). Including, S.R. Abduazizov, G.A.
Kudbieva, I.A. Abduraimov, O.J. Ibrohimova [1], M.V. Balashkina [2], V.A.
Bilokha [3], P.A. Ivanov [4], A.S. Kolishev [6,7], D.A. Macheret [8], D.M.
Rakhimjonov [9], Z.N. Rakhmatov, Sh.V. Ergashev [10], V.I. Soldatkin [11], N.G.
Smekhova [12], S.V.Rachek [13,14] A.I. Shelokov, I.N. Shapkin, Kh.Sh.
Zyabirov[15] in his scientific research, attention was paid to such issues as the
effective use of rail transport, its economy and, in general, the organization of
transport processes, the formation of the theory of cargo systems.
Also, Z.N. Rakhmatov, Sh.V. Ergashev[10] s considered the peculiarities of
the use of blokcheyn exnologies in the process of freight transport on the
railway trackport. This technology allows you to manage the database during
the shipping process. At the same time, special attention in blockchain
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technology is paid to reducing logistic spending along with data security. This
allows the shipping process to be optimized.
Research methodology.
The state views transport as a means of achieving economic, social and
geopolitical goals, ensuring national security, the integrity and stability of the
country's economy and transport complex.
The main share of the volume of freight turnover, one of the main tasks of
rail transport, falls on the responsibility of Railways and highways. Therefore, by
economically-statistical analysis of the freight turnover of the Termez railway
node, it is possible to see and analyze its current operating capacity as well as its
potential potential future.
Table 1.
Freight turnover in general and railways in 2000-2024
1
Years
Railway
freight
bypass
Total cargo
turnover
Years
Railway
freight
bypass
Total
cargo
turnover
2000
15
54,6
2013
22,9
65,8
2001
15,7
55,6
2014
22,9
66,2
2002
18,4
59,9
2015
22,9
65,8
2003
18,9
63,1
2016
22,9
65,3
2004
18
64,7
2017
22,9
66,9
2005
18,1
68,9
2018
22,9
71,3
2006
19,3
73,4
2019
23,4
72,6
2007
21,6
78,8
2020
23,6
66,9
2008
23,4
83,8
2021
24,6
74,8
2009
24,2
77,8
2022
25
75,5
2010
22,3
60,4
2023
27,1
77,6
2011
22,5
62,6
Total
521,2
1638,7
2012
22,7
66,4
Medial
21,7
68,3
When analyzing Table 1, the total freight turnover for the observed 24
years is 1638.7 thousand tons, of which 68.3 thousand tons is the share of the
Termez railway node. This value occupies almost 42%. And the average values
are 68.3 and 21.7 thousand tons, respectively. If the value of absolute change
over the years is analyzed in a chain-like way, it can be seen that freight
turnover on railways decreased only by 0.1 in 2004, 1.9 in 2010, and remained
1
Author's calculations based on the data of the Statistical Agency under the president of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
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unchanged in 2014-2018, increasing to positive in the remaining years. At this
point, the invariance of freight turnover on railways in 2013-2018 attracts
attention. Because this can be explained by the fact that the” Termez-Sariasiya "
direction has completed the process of full electrification. Indeed, since 2019,
freight turnover on Railways has increased significantly. If analyzed year by
year, it was observed that the value of absolute change increased to 2.8 in 2008,
2.3 in 2007 and 2.1 in 2023. The value of the absolute change in the base method
means that in 2023 it increased by 12.1 thousand tons or 180% compared to
2000.
In order to track its share of Railways in the total freight turnover, figure 1
was prepared.
Figure 1. Share of rail in total freight turnover
2
.
As can be seen from the picture, the share of the railway in the total freight
turnover is changing around 30%. This is exactly the share of this network,
which is about a third of the exports and imports in our country.
In order for the analyzes to be detailed and complete, it is necessary to
consider the values in a chain and basic way of indicators of absolute change,
growth rate and incremental rate.
Absolute variation is found in the chain-like Method
∆𝑌 = 𝑌
𝑘
− 𝑌
𝑘−1
, and in
the base Method
∆𝑌 = 𝑌
𝑘
− 𝑌
𝑏𝑎𝑧𝑖𝑠
method. The determination of the growth rate
in a chain way is found by the fact that the ratio of the value of the indicator for
the current year to the value of the previous year is expressed in percent
∆𝑇 =
𝑌
𝑘
𝑌
𝑘−1
∙ 100%
. In the case of a base method, instead of the value of the
previous year, the value of the year considered to be the base is obtained.
∆𝑇 =
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
0,4
Share of rail in total freight turnover
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𝑌
𝑘
𝑌
𝑏𝑎𝑧𝑖𝑠
∙ 100%
increment rate is the expression of absolute change in percentages
of the ratio to the value of the previous year
∆𝐾 =
𝑌
𝑘
−𝑌
𝑘−1
𝑌
𝑘−1
∙ 100%
. In the basic
method, the same is found as above only in which the year of the base is taken
into account, and not the value 1 year before
3
.
Table 2.
In 2000-2023, an analysis of the absolute growth, growth rate and
increase rate indicators of the load turnover of the Termez railway node in
a chain-shaped and basic way
4
Years Cargo
turno
ver
Absolute change Growth rate (%) Rate of increase
In a
chain
way
In a
basic
way
In a
chain
way
In a
basic
way
In a
chain
way
In a
basic
way
2000 15
2001 15,7
0,7
0,7
104,6
104,6
4,6
4,6
2002 18,4
2,7
3,4
117,2
122,7
18,1
17,2
2003 18,9
0,5
3,9
102,7
126
3,3
2,7
2004 18
-0,9
3
95,2
120
-6
-4,8
2005 18,1
0,1
3,1
100,5
120,7
0,7
0,5
2006 19,3
2,1
4,3
106,6
128,7
8
6,6
2007 21,6
2,3
6,6
111,9
144
15,3
11,9
2008 23,4
1,8
8,4
108,3
156
8
8,3
2009 24,2
0,8
9,2
103,4
161,3
5,3
3,4
2010 22,3
-0,9
7,3
92,1
148,7
12,6
7,9
2011 22,5
0,2
7,5
100,9
150
2,3
0,9
2012 22,7
0,2
7,7
100
150
0
0
2013 22,9
0,2
7,9
100
150
0
0
2014 22,9
0
7,9
100
150
0
0
2015 22,9
0
7,9
100
150
0
0
2016 22,9
0
7,9
100
150
0
0
2017 22,9
0
7,9
100
150
0
0
2018 22,9
0
7,9
100
150
0
0
2019 23,4
0,5
8,4
102,1
156
6
2,1
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2020
23,6
0,2
8,6
100,8
157,3
1,3
0,8
2021
24,6
1
9,6
104,2
164
6,7
4,2
2022
25
0,4
10
101,6
167
3
1,6
2023
27,1
2,1
12,1
108,4
180,7
12,3
8,4
Absolute growth in the analyzed years received negative values in 2004,
2010, while during 2012-2018 it acquired a value of 0, which is unchanged. For
16 years, growth was frozen. Notably 2.7% in 2002, 2.3% in 2007, 2.1% in 2006
and 2023. This trend of absolute growth is in turn evidenced by the fact that in
recent years, work has been properly organized in the region on cargo turnover,
in particular the Termez railway node. This is the case with the fact that our
government has developed separate programs in this regard
5
.
It can be seen that the growth rate is less than 100% in 2004, 2010, even
when analyzed in a chain-like way. So in these years it is possible to know that
the load turnover has decreased compared to the previous 1 year. In contrast,
analysis in the basic method shows an increase of 80% in 2023 by 1.8 times
compared to 2000.
Like the above absolute growth, the rate of increase declined in 2004 and
2010, while it experienced a period of stagnation in 2012-2018. In the rest of the
years, a slight increase was achieved. The top swing was 17.2% in 2002, 11.9%
in 2011, and 8.3% in 2008.
If the absolute value of information about the share or volume of the sphere
over certain years is known, then to compare them, a statistical analysis is
carried out using such indicators as absolute change of the temporal series
(chain-shaped and basal), growth rate (chain-shaped and basal), value of 1%
additional growth (or decrease), incremental rate (chain-and basal), absolute
acceleration or fading rate
6
.
The ratio of absolute change to the rate of increase in the chain method is
called an additional growth value of 1%. Absolute acceleration or the rate of
fading is called-the turnover of absolute change values in the chain method. The
rate of acceleration or fading (%) is said to be the percentage expression of the
ratio of the growth rate in the chain method to the growth rate of the next period
of one period. The Optimal rate of acceleration or fading (%) is said to be the
percentage expression of subtraction of 100% from the rate of acceleration or
fading
7
.
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The values of 1% additional growth value, absolute acceleration,
acceleration or fading rate and optimal acceleration or fading rate are detailed in
Table 3 below.
Table 3.
In 2000-2023 Termez's statistical analysis of the growth rate of freight
turnover at the railway node, the value of additional growth by 1%, the
rate of increase and the values of the acceleration or fading rate and the
indicators of the optimal acceleration or fading rate.
Years
Cargo
turnover
1%
additional
growth rate
Absolute
acceleration
or
fading
pace
Acceleration
or
fading
pace
Optimal
acceleration
or
fading
rate
2000
15
2001
15,7
0,15
2
112,04
12,04
2002
18,4
0,15
-2,2
87,63
-12,37
2003
18,9
0,15
-1,4
92,70
-7,30
2004
18
0,15
1
105,57
5,57
2005
18,1
0,14
2
106,07
6,07
2006
19,3
0,26
0,2
104,97
4,97
2007
21,6
0,15
-0,5
96,78
-3,21
2008
23,4
0,22
-1
95,47
-4,52
2009
24,2
0,15
-1,7
89,07
-10,93
2010
22,3
0,07
1,1
109,55
9,55
2011
22,5
0,08
0
99,10
-0,89
2012
22,7
0,15
0
100
0
2013
22,9
0
-0,2
100
0
2014
22,9
0
0
100
0
2015
22,9
0
0
100
0
2016
22,9
0
0
100
0
2017
22,9
0
0
100
0
2018
22,9
0
0,5
102,1
2,1
2019
23,4
0,08
-0,3
98,73
-1,27
2020
23,6
0,15
0,8
103,37
3,37
2021
24,6
0,15
-0,6
97,50
-2,49
2022
25
0,13
1,7
106,69
6,69
2023
27,1
0,17
2
112,04
12,04
When the above table is analyzed at an additional growth rate of 1%, the
selected 24 years did not have 1% in a year. There was no change in 2013-2018.
And the pace of absolute acceleration 2002, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2019
and it can be noticed that in 2021 it decreased. The best growth was achieved in
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2001 and 2% in 2023. The most declining value was 2.2% in 2002. The pace of
acceleration or fading also acquired a changeable character, just like absolute
acceleration. While stagnation was observed in 2012-2014, it reached its lowest
value in 2009 at 89.07%. To its greatest value, it showed 112.04% in 2001 and
2023. The Optimal rate of acceleration or fading is known to depend on the rate
of acceleration or fading. There was also no change here in 2012-2017. In 2001
and 2023, the largest increase was 12.04% while the largest decline occurred in
2002 and 2009 indicators were -12.37% and -10.93% respectively.
As a result of the analysis of the volume of freight traffic at the Termez
railway depot, the following conclusions were obtained;
1.
Termez railway node is an important object of our country in Freight
Export-import.
2.
In 2012-2018, there was stagnation in all indicators for the fact that
the process of electrification of the railways in the area was observed. Another
reason why freight values do not increase in 2020 is the impact of the COVID-19
epidemic, the quality of which is observed all over the world.
3.
With the complete electrification of the region's rail system (as of
2019), there has been an increase in all indicators. Thus, by further moderating
the railway system of the region, it is possible to increase the volume of freight
traffic in terms of quality as well.
4.
With increasing the distance of active railways in the area, it is
possible to further increase the volume of freight traffic.
In the socio-economic development of the region as well as the country, the
role of the railway sector as the main cargo carrier is great. The development of
the industry, in turn, will contribute to the acceleration of the transport,
infrastructure, trade of the territory, further improving the standard of living of
the population and the development of socio-economic spheres.
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higher education system until 2030”(concept of development of the higher
education system until 2030). https://lex.uz/docs/4545884
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