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DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION, LEVEL OF PROVISION OF ENTERPRISES
WORKING POPULATION OF NAMANGAN REGION
Bustonov Mansurjon Mardonakulovich,
Professor of Namangan Technical University, Doctor of Economics,
Email:
Akmal Mamadaliev Gayratalievich
assistant of Namangan Technical University
Annotation.
The demographic factor is one of the determining factors for provision stable and
safe development of the state, and the problems of optimal demographic development should be
considered as the primary interests of the state, as a factor and, at the same time, as a result of
its functioning.
Keywords.
Capital, productivity, efficiency, scenario, forecast, demography, socio-economic
conditions, demographic policy, human potential, social factors.
Introduction.
Demographic processes and demographic development of the territory are the
determining factor in the formation of supply and demand in the regional labor market. The
most noticeable connection is between the size of the population (the working-age part), its
characteristics and structure and the formation of labor supply in the region. Specifically, the
analysis of the dynamics of numbers, gender and age composition, population density, as well
as the level of urbanization makes it possible to study the natural basis for the reproduction of
economic activity of the population, which is one of the key concepts in the study of the
implementation of labor potential and the labor market of the region.
The population of the Namangan region is 2997.5 thousand people, of which 1943.9 thousand
people or 64.8% are urban residents, 1053.6 thousand people and, accordingly, 35.2% are rural
residents. Over the past 14 years, that is, from 2010 to 2023, there has been an increase in the
region’s population by 739.0 thousand people. At the same time, the urban population increased
by 458.1 thousand people, while the rural population increased by 253.9 thousand people.
2319.3 thousand people live in 13 (2 of them new) districts (77.4% of all residents of the
region).
In 2022, the total number of births in the Namangan region was 82,330 people or 2.75% of the
total number of residents of the region by 2023; the total number of deaths is 13,433 people or
0.45% of the total number of residents of the region by 2023.
When comparing the dynamics of the birth rate, it is noticeable that since 2017 there has been a
sharp increase in the birth rate per 1000 residents of the Namangan region; more than 36 babies
are born annually.
Some associate the sharp increase in the birth rate with an increase in payments at the birth of a
child, but this is not always true, because there are a number of other factors, such as the
implementation of “postponed births”, the influence of the expansion of the generation of
childbearing age due to natural reasons (a large number of children born in the 80s .), influence
of religious beliefs, etc. At the same time, 13,433 people died in 2022, of which 7,282 were
men and 6,151 women, which is 109 people less than the previous year.
Table 1
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The total number of births and deaths in the Namangan region for 2013-2022
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
birth rate
56859 62285 61980 62164 61380 66490 71830 74720 79968 82330
mortality 11407 11848 12236 12276 13066 12200 12534 13536 13542 13433
As can be seen from the analysis of Table 1, the difference between fertility and mortality has
been steadily increasing since 2013.
The supply of labor in the labor market is influenced primarily by the processes of fertility and
mortality, which form the basis of the natural reproduction of the population and its main
productive part - the economically active population; gender and age distribution of the
population, migration processes. The consequence of the analyzed processes of population
reproduction is a change in the size of the economically active population, which directly
represents the base of labor supply in the labor market.
Table 2
The total number of births and deaths in the Namangan region for 2013-2022 (thousand
people)
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total active population in the
economy
1099,0
1162,6
1214,7
1217,2
1224,0
1209,9
of them:
busy
1034,9
1051,5
1104,6
1088,7
1104,8
1101,9
unemployed
64,1
111,1
110,1
128,5
119,2
108,0
As can be seen from Table 2, the number of economically active population in the Namangan
region is increasing: in 2022 compared to 2017 by 110.9 thousand people. In turn, the number
of employed people is growing: in 2022 compared to 2017 – 67 thousand people.
Table 3
Age structure of the permanent population of the Namangan region for 2023
16-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-69
70-74 75-79 80-84
Number of people
166571 476037 498497 358078 446112 36993 18272 11947
Studying the formation of supply and demand in the labor market is impossible without
studying the age structure of the region’s population. A study of the dynamics of the age
distribution of the population of the Namangan region shows that there is an increase in the
proportion of the population of working age (16–69 years). Thanks to the increase in the birth
1
Compiled by the author
2
Compiled by the author based on https://namstat.uz/uz/rasmiy-statistika/labor-market-2
3
Compiled by the author based on https://namstat.uz/uz/rasmiy-statistika/demography-2
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rate, since 2013 there has been an increase in the share of the population in the final age, which
is a positive trend, because in the future it will contribute to the expansion of the natural base of
economic activity.
The state and level of employment of the population in the labor market is characterized by the
level of various factors influencing its formation. The study examined factors influencing the
level of employment of the population and its effectiveness in terms of volume and
characteristics of influence, and also clarified the classification of factors. Using this
classification, the goal is to study the influence of various factors on the level of employment in
our country on the basis of accurate statistical data, and also, based on the level of influence of
the factors, to develop proposals for the areas of managing factors that ensure effective
employment in the national labor market in the future.
Forecast indicators calculated for the short term based on a certain econometric model show
that in the near future the number of employed people in the economy will tend to increase
depending on changes in the factors influencing it (Table 4).
Table 4
Forecast of the number of economically employed population and factors influencing it in
the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2021-2026
Y
ea
rs
N
um
be
r
of
jo
bs
in
th
e
ec
on
om
y,
th
ou
sa
nd
pe
op
le
,
In
ve
st
m
en
ts
in
fix
ed
as
se
ts
pe
r
ca
pi
ta
ҳa
zh
m
i,
m
in
g
ўm
Fa
ol
iy
at
nu
m
be
r
of
re
pr
es
en
tin
g
en
te
rp
ri
se
s
(o
rg
an
iz
at
io
ns
an
d
in
st
itu
tio
ns
),
th
ou
sa
nd
bi
rl
ik
C
on
su
m
er
pr
ic
e
in
de
x,
%
W
or
ki
ng
ag
e
po
pu
la
tio
n,
th
ou
sa
nd
pe
op
le
Sh
ar
e
of
sm
al
lb
us
in
es
s
an
d
pr
iv
at
e
en
tr
ep
re
ne
ur
sh
ip
in
G
D
P,
%
2021 14134,9
6466,4
429,3
115,6
19602
59,5
2022 14431,4
6782,3
444,9
115,8
19974,2
61,0
2023 14727,6
7098,2
460,5
116
20346,4
62,5
2024 15023,6
7414,1
476,1
116,2
20718,6
64,0
2025 15319,2
7730,0
491,7
116,4
21090,8
65,5
2026 15614,7
8045,9
507,3
116,6
21463
67,0
According to the information presented in the table, the number of jobs in the economy in 2026
compared to 2020 will increase by 12.8% to 15,614.7 thousand people as a result of the
implementation of the tasks set to achieve the targets set in the concept of further development .
the development of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2030 and the scientific
results obtained in the research are expected to be realized with a change in the number of
operating enterprises by 22.6%, an increase in the amount of fixed capital by 30.8% for 2030.
per capita up to 8045.9 thousand soums (Figure 1).
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In the Republic of Uzbekistan, under normal economic conditions without a pandemic in 2021-
2026, the number of employed people in the economy and the indicators of the factors
influencing it are forecast. the share of small businesses and private entrepreneurship in the
employment level will have a steady growth trend. Of course, there is a possibility that the
identified forecast indicators will change in the real situation in the current period under the
influence of changes in certain economic processes.
Figure 1. Indicators of changes in the number of employees in the economy of Uzbekistan,
thousand people
These changes are caused by qualitative changes observed in economic and socio-demographic
indicators at the country level, which were taken into account in our analysis above.
Calculation of statistical indicators showed that in 2022, the total number of small businesses in
the Namangan region is 32,305, the population is 2,867.5, and the density is 133.2 per 1,000
people. In our opinion, this is due to the fact that there is a disproportion between districts, and
the number of small businesses and density per capita in each district are different (Table 5).
Table 5
Classification of small businesses in the Namangan region by their density per 1000
population
Density level District names
Density
indicator
Maximum
Namangan city, Norinsky district
40 and above
High
Uychinsky district, Uchkurgansky district
30-40
Middle
Chortok district, Kosonsoy district, Torakorgan
district
10-30
Short
Mingbulok district, Pop district, Chust district,
Yangikurgan district, Namangan district
10 and below
4
Developed by the author
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The analysis showed that small businesses in the Namangan region were divided into
areas of maximum, high, medium and low levels by dividing them into groups based on density
per 1000 people. Compared to 2018, in 2022 it remained at a low level. in this regard, we can
say that the specialization of these areas is agriculture, farming, gardening, and the majority of
the population are foreign labor migrants.
In general, today’s indicators of sustainability and efficiency of small businesses, in order to
maintain the state of financial and other resources in accordance with the requirements and
needs of the market, it is necessary to constantly monitor stability indicators, that is, it is
necessary to avoid ensuring the financial sustainability of the organization’s activities in a
certain period of time.
Sustainable development of small business is the dynamic acquisition of a new quality by the
structure of a small business, strengthening production, financial, social activities and its
subsystems, helping to prevent the occurrence of crisis events at any stage of the life cycle.
Based on an analysis of factors influencing employment, we believe that in order to increase the
level of employment of labor resources in the labor market of our country, the following
measures are necessary by the relevant structures of republican and regional government:
1. Increase the number of new jobs by organizing the activities of new business entities and
expanding the activities of existing entities by increasing the volume of investments in fixed
capital that are attracted to the economy by industry and sector, namely: and also on the basis of
a territorial approach.
2. Planning to bring the working age population to the most optimal value by changing the
directions of demographic policy implemented at the regional and republican levels due to
natural population growth.
3. Increase the number of enterprises with an optimal number of jobs by optimizing the volume
of production (services) of enterprises (organizations, institutions) operating in industries and
sectors of the economy based on the current economic situation.
4. By increasing the effectiveness of government anti-inflation measures (targeting, etc.),
stabilizing the consumer price index (inflation level), which directly affects the level of
effective employment of the population, and preventing its sharp growth.
5. Legal regulation of migration processes, ensuring the optimal level of the migration balance
by establishing agreements (quotas) with foreign countries in the direction of labor migration
based on the optimal limits of the migration balance.
6. Increase the nominal wage of the population in proportion to the level of inflation and the
size of the consumer basket.
7. By further improving the conditions for the development of small businesses, private and
family entrepreneurship, with the sustainable formation of new jobs, and a constant increase in
its share in employment.
As a result of activities in these areas, our country will ensure effective employment of the
population, and the level of well-being of the population will steadily increase due to an
increase in the level of employment in the near and medium term using modeling.
The labor market of the Namangan region is an integral part of the national labor market.
However, while having common features with the national labor market, it has a unique
specificity, determined by the natural-geographical and economic-geographical position of the
territory, and the historical and geographical features of farming. The Namangan region is
characterized by a significant share of people employed in agriculture, industry and trade.
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Transformational and crisis processes of socio-economic life influence the formation and
functioning of the labor market, the formation of which was accompanied by the release of a
large number of workers and increased employment and employment problems.
It is important to study employment in our country, increase the level of employment and
manage changes in the labor market in managing the level of employment. A general analysis
of the state of the labor market shows that there are problems in the economy, changes in the
labor and supply sectors, and a low standard of living in life, improving the standard of living.
The creation of these problems in the process of socio-economic reforms is one of the main
directions.
A study of the demographic process in Uzbekistan and the Namangan region revealed its direct
impact on the personnel potential of enterprises. A number of factors and negative
consequences have been identified that significantly influence the formation of the personnel
potential of enterprises in the conditions of the demographic crisis. The study of this group of
factors represents an awareness of the influence on the formation of the personnel potential of
an enterprise of such social factors as the quality of life of people, the satisfaction and
harmonization of their vital needs, the level of incentives for conscientious, highly effective
work, the demographic structure of society, etc.
Consequently, the factors influencing the formation and use of the potential of enterprises are
diverse both in their internal nature and content, and in the influence they exercise. This allows
us to conclude that factors interacting with each other significantly influence the state of the
enterprise’s potential and its further development and operational effectiveness.
Conclusions.
Demographic factors reflect the level of birth and death rates in the region, its
gender and age structure, and mechanical population growth. The factor of this group is
determined by the size and composition of the workforce, and the gender and age structure of
the population affects the increase in the efficiency of reproduction of qualified personnel. In
this situation, the direction of the country's demographic policy must be aimed at increasing the
level and improving the life of the population. The emphasis should be placed not on
quantitative, but on qualitative parameters of demographic reproduction.
It is necessary to concentrate efforts on solving current and strategic problems - economic
provision of population reproduction, adequate social protection of families with children and
the elderly, improving the environmental situation, reducing industrial and household injuries,
promoting a healthy lifestyle, ensuring the availability of quality medical care and education,
and ultimately In short, it will become a significant basis for the transition to a modern regime
of population reproduction and increasing the duration of a full active life.
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