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THE UZBEK ECONOMIC MODEL
Igamova Shaxinya Zikrilloyevna
Associate professor ,PhD Asian International University
Abstract:
Following its independence in 1991, Uzbekistan initiated economic reforms aimed at
transitioning to a market economy. However, by 1996, the country shifted towards increased
state intervention and an import substitution policy to accelerate industrial development. This
approach involved extensive state control over resource allocation, price regulations, and
financial policies. High taxes, government expenditures, and restricted access to favorable
exchange rates further reinforced state dominance. Additionally, artificial monopolies were
created by limiting market entry and granting preferential treatment to select enterprises. Direct
government control over businesses and import restrictions through tariff and non-tariff barriers
further constrained market competition. This economic model prioritized centralized
management and industrial growth but limited private sector development and economic
liberalization.
Key words:
Uzbekistan Independence, Market economy, State intervention, Import substitution,
Industrial development, Resource allocation, Price regulation, Exchange rate, High taxes,
Government expenditures, monopolies, Business management, Market restrictions, Tariff
barriers.
Introduction
As an independent state, Uzbekistan appeared on the world map in 1991. The country launched
reforms that were supposed to create a base for running a market economy. In 1996, however the
course of the economy was radically shifted towards intensification of state intervention in the
economy and the implementation of an import substitution policy. To accelerate industrial
development, the state redistributed huge flows of material, financial, monetary and labour
resources through:
- Direct allocation of resources, administrative regulation of commodity prices, interest
rates and exchange rates;
- High taxes and government expenditures;
- Restricted access to the official exchange rate which is beneficial for currency buyers
(usually two to three times different from the market rate);
- Establishment of artificial monopolies by limiting the access to markets for new players
and provision of tax, credit and other benefits to certain enterprises or groups of
enterprises;
- Direct (‘manual’) business management; and
- Limitation of imports by tariff and non-tariff barriers.
The result was the extremely low level of economic efficiency and economic growth rates, high
unemployment and external labour migration, and rampant corruption.
Table 1. GDP per capita, in USD, nominal growth
countries
1995 2018 Growth
countries
1995
2018
Growth
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China
610
9771
16,0
Moldova
47
7
3227
6,8
Azerbaijan
397
4721
11,9
Mongolia
63
2
4122
6,5
Vietnam
277
2567
9,3
India
37
4
2010
5,4
Armenia
456
4212
9,2
Belarus
13
71
6290
4,6
Lithuania
2169 19153
8,8
Russia
26
66
11289
4,2
Georgia
578
4717
8,2
Tajikistan
21
4
827
3,9
Latvia
2322 17861
7,7
Kyrgyzstan
36
4
1281
3,5
Kazakhstan
1288 9813
7,6
Ukraine
93
6
3095
3,3
Estonia
3131 23266
7,4
Uzbekistan
58
6
1532
2,6
Due to the policies pursued, market reforms were curtailed and market mechanisms were
partially replaced by command and administrative regulation. Limited competition, high
business costs, and insecurity of property rights and deals hampered the creation of competitive
manufacturing and other businesses. The incredibly large benefits and high level of monopolism
stimulated corruption, rapid unearned incomes and the export of monetary capital.
The artificial cheapening of capital (conversions at the lucrative official exchange rate,
cheap loans, and tax exemptions) and expensive labour (due to high payroll taxes) led to
utilisation of capital-intensive industries instead of labour-intensive ones, which, amongst other
factors, contributed to extremely low employment in the formal sector. As the results of a
sociological survey conducted in the summer of 2018 showed (no earlier data is available), with
about 18.8 million people employed, employment in the official sector of the economy amounted
to 5.3 million people (less than 30 per cent of the workforce), while in the informal sector – also
about 5.3 million people (including 1.6 million employed in temporary one-off and seasonal
jobs), the number of external labour migrants exceeded 2.6 million people.
A very high level of direct government intervention in the economy has been established.
The vast majority of large-scale enterprises and financial institutions are state-owned. Many
enterprises are controlled by the state through controlling stakes or so-called ‘golden shares’.
The scale of state ownership is impossible to estimate due to the lack of respective statistics, but
according to some estimates it exceeds 50 per cent of the country’s total production assets. The
state also owns more than 80 per cent of all the assets in the banking sector.
At the end of
2018, the expenditures of the consolidated budget of Uzbekistan amounted to 35.2 per cent of
GDP in 2018, and considering quasi-fiscal expenditures of state enterprises, the volume of state
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expenditures amounted to no less than 41.2 per cent of GDP. These two figures are one and half
to two times higher than similar figures of successfully developing countries with comparable
GDP per capita and even higher than analogous figures of some advanced countries in the world
(see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Revenues of the state budget and extra-budgetary funds to the GDP of
individual Asian countries, in percentage, in 2015
Source:
Time of reforms
Uzbekistan’s economy needs fundamental, systemic and consistent reforms and the
replacement of the entire system of public institutions. The key task is to create environment for
normal operation of effective market mechanisms. Uzbekistan’s economic reforms began after
the assumption of power by the new president. The following reforms are most important ones
from an economic perspective:
Unification of exchange rates, liberalisation of the foreign exchange market and
introduction of conversion for current operations (summer – autumn 2017);
Removal of various administrative barriers to cross border flow of goods and people
(primarily with the neighbours of Uzbekistan) and reduction of customs charges (2017-
18);
Reforms of banking sector and money circulation (2017-18);
Radical tax reform (2019); and
Reduction of various administrative costs of doing business.
Several other important areas have already been outlined for reforms to be launched in 2020:
administrative reform, agrarian reform, the restructuring and privatisation of state enterprises,
a new stage of banking reform, and more. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the
timeframe and scope of these reforms became uncertain.
Some of the reforms, both in progress and pending, are described below in more detail.
Liberalization of foreign economic activity
Up to 2017, the government of Uzbekistan had been implementing the policy of active
protectionism, by limiting imports through the absence of free conversion of the national
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currency, high customs charges and non-tariff barriers. In addition, there were significant formal
and informal barriers to the free movement of people and capital across borders. All of this
deprived Uzbekistan of opportunities to fully participate in the international division of labor and
to establish competitive industries.
As already mentioned, in 2017-18 the government introduced free currency conversion
for current transactions, removed a number of administrative barriers to the movement of goods
and people and reduced customs charges, which constitute the most important achievements of
reforms in Uzbekistan.
However, starting from December 2018, under pressure from industry lobbyists, the
government started to restore to some extent the import substitution and protectionism policy:
earlier reduced customs charges for a certain range of FEACN codes were increased and new
non-tariff barriers to import were introduced.
However, zero and low customs tariffs for some
categories of goods are combined with rather high tariffs for other categories, which allows to
keep the average customs tariff approximately at the level comparable to the average tariffs of
the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries. As a result, in industries with high tariffs and
non-tariff barriers, conditions are created for monopolization of markets by particular
companies.
In connection with the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020, customs charges on a
range of essential goods were abolished, the government plans to reduce customs charges on
goods for business as well. There is hope that once the pandemic is over, the tendency of
liberalization of foreign economic activity will continue. The government has announced its
desire to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) as soon as possible. Joining the WTO will
inevitably lead to the reduction of many tariff and non-tariff barriers to imports.
Reform of Banking Sector
Up to 2017, the bank-credit sector used to be one of the most regulated sectors of the
Uzbek economy. Banks had no commercial independence, their activities, including the
establishment of interest rates, were strictly regulated by the Central Bank and alternative credit
institutions had very limited presence. The monetary system was fragmented and tight
restrictions on cash circulation were in place, generating different values for different types of
money.
The deregulation and commercialisation of Uzbekistan’s banking sector have taken place
over the recent years. The Central Bank has significantly reorganised its activities in terms of
control and regulation of commercial banks, regulation of money circulation and currency
market. The banks have become more client-oriented, the cost of the banking services
significantly reduced, the quality improved and the range of services expanded. The
administrative restrictions on the purchase of currency and cash turnover have been removed.
Nevertheless, more than 80 per cent of bank assets are still owned by the state, and the
government is actively providing ‘soft’ and ‘bad’ loans (imposed by government agencies)
through banks primarily to state enterprises.
The credit sector competition is still
underdeveloped, new players (both domestic and international) have limited access, and the non-
banking sector is represented by only a small number of microfinance institutions and
pawnshops.
However, the government declares its intention to denationalize the sector, to privatise
some part of the assets of state banks, to cease the practice of concessional lending, to increase
access of foreign banks to the sector. Several important reforms were planned to be carried out in
2020. However, the coronavirus pandemic is undermining these plans. Preservation of the
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practice of concessional lending, administrative interference in the issuance and prolongation of
loans (which is often almost inevitable in the conditions of an acute economic crisis) is
especially dangerous for the planned reforms.
Tax reform
The key problems of the tax system of Uzbekistan, formed in the previous two decades,
were as follows:
The overall high tax burden on the economy (mentioned above), especially high payroll
taxes, which is burdensome for business;
Very complicated taxation rules which increase the costs of tax administration and create
unequal game rules for business (a large number of taxes, different taxation regimes,
separate rules for calculating the same taxes for different categories of taxpayers, great
deviation from international practice in determining the tax base, a huge number of
exceptions, additional rules, benefits, including individual ones, when paying taxes);
Highly uneven distribution of the tax burden between the simplified and general taxation
regimes (transition of an enterprise from the simplified to the general taxation regime
increased the tax burden several times), as well as between different sectors of the
economy;
and
Broad application of taxes on gross revenues (turnover), which negatively affect the
public division of labour and the formation of long value chains (as the goods move
along the chain, the same value was taxed many times, and the longer the chain, the
higher the tax burden).
These problems became the key reasons for the low level of registered employment of the
population, did not allow to carry out deep processing of raw materials and to create competitive
manufacturing by utilising the advantages of economies of scale and narrow specialisation,
forced the business to go into the ‘shadow economy’, to split into parts, and destroyed the
competitive environment.
On January 1
st
2019, Uzbekistan launched a tax reform process, during which many of
the above-mentioned problems were already addressed (partly or completely).
The following
achievements were particularly important:
Drastic reduction of taxation on labour (by one and half to two times);
Significant reduction of the tax burden on enterprises under the general taxation regime
(the most important ones are the reduction of the VAT rate from 20 to 15 per cent,
elimination of contributions to the State Targeted Funds from revenues – 3.2 per cent);
Significant reduction in the sphere of influence of turnover taxes (before the reform these
taxes were paid by almost all enterprises, now medium and large enterprises do not pay
them at all, and small enterprises can choose between turnover tax and VAT); and
Work has begun on eliminating a huge number of tax privileges and exemptions,
equalising tax conditions for all parts of the economy.
Several mistakes in the preparation and initial phase of the reform were corrected by
subsequent adjustments in the second half of 2019. In particular, VAT was reduced from 20 to
15 per cent, the refusal to provide tax benefits and exceptions began, and some mechanisms for
paying VAT were improved. Nevertheless, relatively high tax administration costs and overall
high level of redistribution of revenues through the budget and quasi-budget funds remain. Due
to the coronavirus pandemic, some businesses have been given tax holidays and several
inefficient budget and quasi-budget expenditures are being reduced. It is hoped that after the
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pandemic it will be possible to maintain some positive steps towards reducing state participation
in the economy.
Administrative Reform
The existing model of state administration in Uzbekistan is characterised by excessive
centralisation of decision making, underdevelopment of self-regulation institutions, which leads
to ‘manual management’ of socio-economic and political processes in the country. There is a
poor performance of checks and balances, as well as significant informal dependence of the
legislative and judicial branches of government on the executive branch.
The main issue of state administration and economic policy in Uzbekistan is that the
executive authorities continue to actively use administrative methods of management that are
incompatible with the effective functioning of a market economy. Active government
intervention is the main factor in high transaction costs for national business and the widespread
corruption and, consequently, low competitiveness of domestic products. Accordingly, the main
goal of administrative reform is a significant reduction of state participation, as well as
modification of functions and methods of state regulation in the economy.
Uzbekistan needs a fundamental administrative reform based on consideration of
international experience and functional analysis that will result in:
Reconsideration and redistribution of the structure, tasks, functions and responsibilities of
central authorities, as well as of administrative bodies at the sectoral level;
Reduction, simplification and optimisation of procedures for public service delivery;
reconsideration of the principles of social sector financing (combined with the reforms of
education, health care and pension system);
Fundamental transformation of the public service system; and
Redistribution of functions, powers and financial resources between central and local
governments. At the same time, it is necessary to conduct a fundamental reform of the
local government itself, including addressing the issues of the separation of powers at the
local level and increasing the responsibility of local authorities towards the population.
Unfortunately, only some elements of administrative reform have been implemented in
Uzbekistan so far. The coronavirus pandemic is inevitably introducing some adjustments into the
government’s plans to intensify the reforms in 2020.
Regulation of business, protection of property rights, development of competition
The Uzbek leadership has done much in the last years for the improvement of business
environment and reduction of transaction costs. This is mainly reflected in reduction of the tax,
customs and administrative burden, simplification of procedures for export-import transactions
and obtaining various permits, and the improvement of the money circulation system and the
banking sector.
At the same time, the regulatory and legal sphere continues to face many problems
related to the lack of transparency, inconsistency and inefficiency of legislation, extremely
ineffective judicial and legal protection of property and transactions, and lack of real separation
of powers and checks and balances.
Another major issue associated with the imperfection of the regulatory and legal
framework is the high level of market monopolisation and unequal business rules. Competition is
destroyed by artificial barriers to market access for new enterprises, high tariff and non-tariff
barriers to imports, and a wide range of individual and group (for example, for members of
industry associations) privileges. Reforms have been extremely slow (mostly just plans for the
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time being) in the so-called ‘natural monopolies’ (energy, utilities, transport) and extractive
industries sectors. State enterprises dominate and there is practically no competition. Meanwhile,
healthy competitive environment can be successfully created in the majority of such industries
with the involvement of private investors.
Reforms in the agrarian sector and irrigation systems
Agriculture is one of the major sectors of the Uzbek economy. Almost half of the
population of the country lives in rural areas. In 2019, the contribution of the agricultural sector
to Uzbekistan’s GDP was 25.5 per cent.
Nevertheless, agriculture is the sector of economy
which is the most regulated by the state. The property rights of major agricultural producers and
farmers are poorly protected, methods of regulation of their activities are de facto taken from the
Soviet past, and markets for many types of agricultural products, manufacturing resources and
services for the sector are underdeveloped. Agriculture desperately needs to be reformed, but no
significant changes have taken place so far.
A key feature of the agricultural sector of Uzbekistan is the presence of two agricultural
crops produced mainly for state needs – cotton and wheat. In the latest years, there has been a
certain reduction in the amount of land mandatorily allocated for cotton, primarily in favour of
fruit and vegetable production. However, cotton and wheat still constitute about two thirds of all
lands allocated for cultivated areas, orchards and vineyards. The existing mechanisms of forming
the state order and the pricing system make the cultivation of cotton and wheat unprofitable for a
significant part of farmers. In addition, the existing system of land quotas for mandatory crops
does not allow farmers to optimise the structure of production, with due regard for soil and
climate peculiarities, water availability, staff qualifications, etc. Often, other crops are more
profitable to grow on land allocated for cotton and wheat.
The strategy for the development of the agricultural sector was adopted at the end of 2019,
emphasising the need for fundamental reforms. At the beginning of 2020, the President
announced plans to cancel the mandatory state order during the period 2020-23. It is also
planned to develop competitive markets for agricultural products, resources and services for the
agricultural sector, as well as to create a legal framework for land use. Besides, the draft concept
of water sector development, which assumes reformation of the sector, is under
discussion.
However, in view of the forthcoming removal of the mandatory state order, the
question arises about the redistribution of the portions of land which are held by farmers.
In recent decades there have been several redistributions of cultivated lands of former
collective and state farms. And all these redistributions were carried out completely arbitrarily
without any public discussion and approval. This resulted in the current situation when most of
the cultivated land is at the disposal of (on the basis of lease agreements) a very small part of
rural residents (farmers). The overwhelming majority of rural population has only small plots
(dekhkan farms). At the same time, it should be taken into account that some regions have
complicated demographic situation, overpopulation and high unemployment in rural areas.
Most rural residents consider this distribution of land to be illegitimate. The problem
becomes very acute due to the forthcoming cancellation of the state order, which will turn
farmers into real owners of most fertile and irrigated agricultural land.
One of the options for solving this acute problem is to use the fact that lease agreements
state that farmers have no right to freely dispose of lands allocated for cotton and wheat. In fact,
this is not their land. And since the state cancels the state order, there is a chance to revise the
agreements and redistribute the lands previously allocated for the state order in favour of other
rural residents (for example, through auctions). During redistribution of the land, especially
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when determining the size of land plots to be transferred to new owners, it is necessary to keep in
mind a significant number of economic and social circumstances, including: the impact of the
size of farms on agricultural productivity, employment and income of rural residents, as well as
the interests of adjacent sectors of the economy, the demographic situation in the regions, and so
on.
Challenges and prospects of reforms
The country’s leadership is still under strong influence of the philosophy and practice of
import substitution and protectionism, as well as traditions of ‘manual management’ of the
economy. The importance of separation of government functions from business practices and the
need for the government to act as an ‘arbitrator’ defining the rules of the game for business,
rather than being a direct participant in business processes, is not understood. There is no unified
team of reformers who clearly and equally understand the goals and directions of reforms and
methods of their implementation. On the contrary, the positions of industry and individual
lobbyists who defend corporate and private interests are very strong.
Many challenges are related to the very low average level of professionalism, initiative
and economic literacy of civil servants. For a long time, a) the existing system of selection and
promotion of personnel, b) lack of political competition, and c) low salaries in government
bodies (with the exception of law enforcement agencies), caused ‘negative selection’ of officials,
leaving in management positions the unsolicited performers of someone else’s will with low
qualifications and high degree of inclination to corruption. It is extremely difficult to carry out
fundamental reforms with such personnel potential and to expect a significant improvement in
the quality of public administration.
Nevertheless, the reforms in the country are going on, even if not always consistently and
systematically. If at least some of the necessary reforms are implemented relatively successfully,
there is hope for the formation of more or less effective inclusive market institutions, the creation
of conditions for sustainable economic development, the formation of a ‘middle class’ and civil
society. In the future, the ‘middle class’ and civil society will become a social pillar for further
economic, legal and political reforms.
In conclusion, the author would like to note that there is an acute objective need for
expert and organisational support for reforms in Uzbekistan by international organisations,
governments of foreign countries and the international expert community. Without it, it will be
quite difficult for the country to build and implement an effective strategy of reforms, which will
make it possible to shape a fundamentally new socio-economic system.
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