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THE OBJECTIVE NECESSITY AND SIGNIFICANCE OF DEVELOPING THE FRUIT
AND VEGETABLE SECTOR IN THE CONDITIONS OF COMPETITION IN THE
FOOD MARKET
Mengnorov Almardon Abdurakhmonovich
Renaissance Educational University, associate professor,.PhD
Annotation:
This article thoroughly examines scientific and practical approaches to ensuring the
competitiveness of agricultural products produced in our country. Special attention is given to
the stable development of the agricultural sector, particularly the fruit and vegetable industry, the
introduction of innovative technologies, the efficient use of limited land and water resources,
increasing production volumes, and expanding export geography. The study also focuses on
developing additional measures for consistent reforms, conducting systematic analysis, making
optimal strategic decisions, and creating multi-variant models of sustainable economic growth.
Keywords:
agriculture, food, fruit and vegetables, efficiency, international market,
competitiveness, export, production, yield, cost price, land and water resources, effectiveness,
profit, volume, approach, methodology, export geography.
Introduction
In an era of climate change, population growth, and globalization of the world economy,
ensuring the safety and quality of ecological food has become a necessity. In this regard, the
Presidential Decree of October 23, 2019, "On the Approval of the Strategy for the Development
of Agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2020-2030," outlines key priorities. These
include the broad implementation of market principles in the purchase and sale of agricultural
products, the development of quality control infrastructure, the promotion of exports, and the
creation of a favorable agribusiness environment. The strategy also emphasizes the establishment
of a value-added chain aimed at producing competitive, high-value agricultural and food
products for targeted international markets
.
Due to the negative trends observed in the agricultural and food markets, increasing
competition places a priority on state authorities, higher education institutions, and research
organizations to identify and assess long-term strategic measures for the development of
agriculture, particularly in response to global climate change. Expanding scientific research and
implementing effective innovations into practice have become one of the key tasks.
This is because the development of agricultural sectors, including the cultivation of
fruits and vegetables with unique characteristics, is closely linked to factors such as natural and
climatic conditions, biological and technological elements, labor organization and incentive
methods, the seasonality of agronomic measures for crop care, production resources, the location
of service facilities and entities in the sector, land categories, and interregional distribution.
Therefore, determining the prospects for the development of the fruit and vegetable
sector requires a creative study and analysis of the scientific research results conducted by both
foreign and local economists.
In particular, based on our analysis, the strategy for developing the fruit and vegetable
sector includes the synergistic impact of the following five key interrelated and integrated
1
Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. PF-5853 dated October 23, 2019, "On the Approval of
the Strategy for the Development of Agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2020-2030."
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directions:
Accelerating economic growth,
Reducing poverty,
Ensuring gender equality,
Achieving food security, and
Ensuring environmental sustainability.
Considering the integrated synergistic impact of these key directions, it can be
concluded that
"
forecasting changes in production volumes serves as a method for predicting
and identifying changes in internal and external business activities, reducing uncertainties, and
scientifically assessing risk levels occurring in the production process"
If natural and climatic indicators are considered the main factors of uncertainty and risk
in the agricultural sector, this not only affects the performance of agricultural producers but also
impacts the overall national economy and the development of its other sectors. For this reason,
the agro-industrial complex, including its core-agriculture-typically develops short-term (1–3
years), medium-term (4–5 years), and long-term (6–10 years) forecast parameters.
The variability and instability of natural and climatic conditions primarily influence the
yield of agricultural crops, including the development of the fruit and vegetable sector, the
formation of food reserves, and the development of other related industries. They also directly
affect the volume of the agricultural products and raw materials market.
In particular, the simultaneous occurrence of negative impacts from natural and climatic
factors and other influences can distort the accuracy of statistical data management and increase
uncertainty in economic development forecasting.
However, in recent years, global climate change and the rapid growth of the world
population have, in turn, led to changes in the balance of supply and demand in the global food
market. As a result, there is an increasing focus on the intensive use of limited land and water
resources, including the widespread implementation of greenhouses, genetic engineering,
hydroponics, and transplantation methods in livestock farming. Due to these trends, the
importance of scientifically forecasting global economic processes and changes in the food
market has significantly increased.
Therefore, the theory and methodology of scientifically forecasting the prospective
directions of agriculture and changes in the dynamics of food production must be improved in
line with the requirements of modern information and communication tools and digital
technologies.
"In particular, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have substantiated the
necessity of fundamental reforms in the sector and demonstrated that the production of consumer
goods is not only economically but also socially significant"
Not only for the overall development of society and the economy but also for improving
forecasting methodologies in agricultural production, it is essential to select and apply methods
2
Butakova M.M. Economic Forecasting: Methods and Practical Calculation Techniques. – M.: KNORUS, 2018. –
168 pages.
3
FAO. 2020. Agri-Food Markets and Trade Policy During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Rome.
https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8446ru
FAO. 2020. Coronavirus and Potential Gaps in National Statistics: Reorganizing
the Work of National Statistical Systems in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Rome.
https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8614ru
. FAO. 2020. COVID-19 and Small Farmers’ Access to Markets. Rome.
https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8657ru
. FAO. 2020. Adapting Business Models to Support Agri-Food Enterprises During
the COVID-19 Pandemic. Rome.
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for analyzing several years of analytical data in accordance with specific goals and objectives.
In particular, forecasting agricultural production volumes is crucial not only for
ensuring food security but also for maximizing the efficient use of processing enterprises’
capacities. Additionally, it is important to systematize the methodology for forecasting the
development of not only the agricultural sector as a whole but also its individual sub-sectors.
This involves considering sector-specific conditions, the nature and purpose of production
processes, and the methods that substantiate and reflect them in the following directions (Table
1.1).
According to I.F. Khitskov and his co-authors, within this system, a comprehensive
approach to forecasting the future activities and development directions of agriculture is viewed
as the interconnection of several processes, namely:
Assessing potential threats,
Identifying influencing factors and opportunities,
Determining possible and appropriate areas of activity, and
Increasing the adaptability to changes in the external environment.
Table 1.1
The System and Content of Methodological Approaches Used in Agricultural Forecasting
№ Approach
Essence and content
1. Comprehensi
ve
It involves an analytical analysis of the complexity of agricultural
production and its connection with processes occurring in other
sectors.
2. Systemic
The analysis of agricultural development is studied as a system
consisting of elements that influence it.
3. Structural
The forecasting process in agriculture is explained from the
perspective of cause-effect and structural relationships.
4. Innovative
It reflects the prediction of priority directions for the innovative
development of agriculture and the application of effective forms of
knowledge and skills dissemination.
5. Marketing
It envisages the development of high value-added agricultural and food
products based on the study of demand in external and internal
markets.
6. Ecologic
It justifies the need to develop a program of measures to effectively
utilize and develop ecological factors in agricultural production at the
state and regional levels.
7. Resources
It reflects the forecasting of the rational use of natural-economic,
production, and labor resources.
8. Social
It is aimed at ensuring food security, improving the consumption ratio,
increasing employment in rural areas, and expanding income sources.
Based on the analysis of the above methodological approaches, it should be particularly
emphasized that today, in the agricultural sector of the republic, the main focus is on improving
property ownership and economic management structures, fully transitioning agricultural
production to the private sector, abolishing state orders, developing infrastructure and service
4
Developed by the author based on the generalization of scientific sources in the research work.
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industries, shifting from raw material production to the manufacturing of finished consumer
goods, and enabling producers to independently market and export their products through
appropriate sales channels or commodity exchanges.
As a result, broad opportunities are being created for producers to directly access food
markets and other consumer outlets without intermediaries. To ensure that most producers can
simultaneously adapt to both domestic and international market conditions, it is essential to
consider that "accelerating innovation processes should be regarded as an effective tool for
addressing production, economic, and social challenges in the agricultural sector of the national
economy
"
.
Thus, a systematic approach that scientifically and methodologically substantiates the
importance of determining the development prospects of the fruit and vegetable sector requires
the correct selection of quantitative and qualitative indicators of probabilistic processes in this
field. This approach is viewed as a system consisting of several interrelated elements and
components.
In particular, this system is expressed through a combination of the following elements,
which reflect the means and essence of a specific process: hypotheses, concepts, strategies,
programs, and others.
"The starting point of these combinations is the analysis of agricultural development
trends and laws." In this regard, it is possible to present active intervention options that include
mandatory decision-making and accountability measures when plans and programs must be
implemented within a specified timeframe, involving specific executors.
Thus, determining the future production volume primarily involves explaining the
development of the
fruit and vegetable sector
in relation to its unique characteristics, patterns,
and natural-climatic factors. These aspects must be scientifically forecasted, considering the
changes in the production activity of the specific research object (Figure 1.1).
Thus, in any sector (field), as well as in the dialectics and foundations of changes in a
particular process or condition, new trends emerge over time, influencing the interconnection
and impact of factors. These trends shape a system of measures that align with the interests of
society and economic entities, helping to mitigate negative factors and comprehensively consider
both positive and negative aspects in future planning. Conducting systematic scientific research
in this area is of great significance.
Additionally, when developing programs for the development of an object, the primary
goal is to identify the impact of positive trends and factors while minimizing the effects of
negative conditions. This requires a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the object,
identifying existing barriers, and implementing measures to eliminate them, thereby ensuring the
subject's effective functioning.
Analyzing and defining the forecasting of production volumes and the development of
the fruit and vegetable sector plays a crucial role, as this approach reflects the interconnection of
influencing factors in the studied process. It also considers the socio-economic and structural-
organizational changes in the development of agriculture across different regions.
5
Samatov G., Rustamova I. Improving Institutional Mechanisms for Effective Management of Innovative Activities
in the Agrarian Sector. Materials of the 10th Forum of Economists. Edited by Doctor of Economics, Professor
Akhmedov T.M. Tashkent: IFMR, 2018. – 240 pages.
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Figure 1.1. The System of Prospective Directions for the Development of the Fruit and
Vegetable Sector
Indeed, "the scientific forecasting of the development of the fruit and vegetable sector
in the region considers expected economic events, namely, the development trends of productive
forces, production relations, their interrelations, and the assessment of anticipated outcomes.
These factors manifest in the dynamics of production, distribution, exchange, and consumption
6
Author's development.
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volumes and structures. Agricultural reforms influence the restructuring of motives and interests,
changes in production and distribution relations, and impact market capacity."
This approach is explained as follows in the process of accurately assessing agricultural
production activities:
a) The interconnection between productive forces and production relations in the
development of the fruit and vegetable sector in a region is based on changes in their equilibrium.
Furthermore, the level of productive forces determines the dynamics of agricultural development.
b) Changes in and interactions between productive forces affect the volume and
composition of agricultural products. This, in turn, serves as the basis for determining the
alignment of forecasting results with existing conditions. Taking these factors into account, the
scientific forecasting of the regional development of the fruit and vegetable sector should be
reflected in industry development programs, considering aspects such as ensuring the
population’s supply of essential food products, export channels for goods and services to foreign
markets, quantitative and qualitative product indicators, and cost-based marketing strategies (see
Table 1.2).
The application of the most effective marketing methods in determining the
development prospects of the fruit and vegetable sector helps establish a rational balance
between product production and demand. It also creates an appropriate information base on
optimal coordination between crop and livestock farming for a specific region, their placement
and specialization according to the natural-climatic and soil conditions of each region. Through
this, it plays a crucial role in the development of prospective industry development programs.
Table
1.2.
The Marketing Approach in Defining the Scientifically-Based Prospects for the
Development of the Fruit and Vegetable Sector
№ Direction
Context
1.
Considering the development of
the fruit and vegetable products
market
Considering the price dynamics of fruit and vegetable
products, raw materials, production, and other resources
in the markets, as well as institutional changes.
2.
Determining the production
volume of products
Identifying the demand for fruit and vegetable products
in domestic and international markets, taking into
account the indicators of targeted programs aimed at
industry development and supported by the state.
3.
Taking into account the demand
for products
Studying demographic conditions, household incomes,
changes in the consumer basket, the composition of
family expenditures, and consumer preferences in
domestic and international markets, among other
factors.
4.
Introducing new products to the
market
Diversifying the fruit and vegetable sector and farms in
line with market demands, determining product volumes
and consumption markets.
5.
Capturing new market segments
Exploring new market segments in terms of fruit and
vegetable varieties, considering the demands of new
domestic and international markets, among other
7
Developed by the author based on the generalization of scientific sources.
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aspects.
Based on these data sources, when forecasting the population's demand for food products,
it is essential to first analyze the changes in locally produced and imported products that meet the
needs of the local population. Additionally, it is necessary to determine the share of products
retained within the region and compare it with the share of products exported to foreign markets.
To determine the level of food supply for the population and calculate the food security
index, the following formula is used:
(1.1)
here:
– security index;
– production volume, i – the type of agricultural product (excluding imports and
consumption reserves), t – the period;
– t – during the production period, in tons;
– region’s average annual population for period t, in persons;
– rational consumption level of product i, in kilograms
Based on Formula 1.1, the level of food security can be determined at the national or
regional level. If the index is equal to 1, it indicates that food security is ensured. An index
higher than 1 means that there is a surplus of food products beyond local consumption, while an
index lower than 1 indicates a food shortage.
The competitiveness of agricultural products exported by producers largely depends on
their ability to strengthen their position in global food markets by achieving competitive
advantages over similar products. Various factors determine the competitiveness of agricultural
products in global food markets, including: quality indicators; product price and cost; nutritional
value, taste, and consumer properties; design and packaging; pre-sales and after-sales service;
market segmentation of the product; marketing, advertising, and the development of information
and communication systems; warranty provisions and guarantee periods; timely availability of
the product in the competitive market; the socio-economic and political situation in the country
or region.
Export diversification, which refers to expanding the range of goods (or services) sold in
foreign markets, prevents an excessive increase in the share of specific products (especially raw
materials) or certain services in total exports. It also broadens the geographical scope of
exporting countries, ensuring stable export growth and reducing the vulnerability of the national
economy to adverse changes in external markets. Trade turnover diversification reflects the
expansion of both the range of exported and imported goods (services) and the number of partner
countries. From this perspective, the main strategic task is to calculate forecasted indicators,
integrate them into statistical databases, and use them purposefully for decision-making. This
enables the comparison of the movement trajectories of agricultural and industrial products and
plays a crucial role in developing long-term development scenarios and strategies. By analyzing
future changes in factors influencing development, alternative (scenario-based) forecasting
approaches can be developed, allowing for optimal decision-making.
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Forecasting based on intuitive knowledge is generally less reliable than empirical
forecasting built on scientific knowledge, experience, case studies, random observations, and
proposals. Therefore, forecasting scenarios must be reliable and adaptable, considering multiple
possible situations. The forecasting model should not only follow trends and patterns but also
closely approximate reality and be based on principles of adequacy and adaptability. Thus,
forecasts should be continuously updated, and long-term planning, project development, and
management should be integrated with sectoral, regional, and economic development programs.
The task of scientifically grounded forecasting is to anticipate the causes, progression, and socio-
economic consequences of problems and contradictions arising in regional farming and to
identify possible solutions in advance.
Overall, the primary content and goal of methodological approaches should focus on
ensuring the development of society, the state, sectors, and agricultural enterprises in alignment
with market principles, mechanisms, and competition. These approaches are also significant in
fostering the ability of producers to influence competitive processes by considering supply and
demand for goods and services. The market economic system's distinctive features are logically
expressed through the increasing independence of producers in terms of ownership forms and
business practices. Accepting scientifically based principles meets these requirements, ensuring
the validity and accuracy of proposed forecasts. This enables a scientific justification of potential
directions for the activity of forecasted entities and an evaluation of current economic policies.
The solution to this issue and its relevance are closely linked to the urgent need to address
the most complex tasks related to food security, improving the supply and quality of food
products for the population, stabilizing production volumes, and increasing the competitiveness
of local agricultural (fruit and vegetable) products through new innovations in a short period.
This, in turn, aligns with Uzbekistan's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including:
eradicating hunger, reducing poverty, ensuring food security, and, achieving sustainable
development in the agricultural sector.
In conclusion, research findings indicate that the current management methods used in
agriculture do not fully meet existing demand requirements. Therefore, it is necessary to improve
and implement them in line with strategic objectives and mechanisms. These improvements will
not only enhance the efficiency of fruit and vegetable production but also strengthen labor
motivation and incentives, as well as boost the competitiveness of production and exports.
