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VOLUME
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ABSTRACT
In this article, the place and significance of strategic thinking and analysis of international and domestic political
attitudes are analysed. And also, opportunities of the strategic analysis for today are stated.
KEYWORDS
Strategy, state strategy, strategic management, strategic planning, operational planning, strategic analysis, strategic
initiatives, national development strategy, national security.
INTRODUCTION
Strategy represents the triumph of logic, where the
right or wrong choice of strategy can be known only by
the final result. Because it is possible to lose a battle,
but in the end, it is impossible to win a war. Strategy is
a structure, a link between a point of reality and a point
beyond the point of reality, because the realization of
the goal does not exist in the present. This is a clear
Research Article
THE ROLE AND IMPORTANCE OF STRATEGIC THINKING AND ANALYSIS
IN THE MODERN FOREIGN POLICY OF THE STATE
Submission Date:
October 01, 2022,
Accepted Date:
October 05, 2022,
Published Date:
October 20, 2022
Crossref doi:
https://doi.org/10.37547/ijp/Volume02Issue10-07
Khikmatov Fatkhulla Khabibullaevich
Doctor Of Philosophy (Phd) In Political Sciences Senior Lecturer, Journalism And Mass Communications
University Of Uzbekistan
Journal
Website:
https://theusajournals.
com/index.php/ijp
Copyright:
Original
content from this work
may be used under the
terms of the creative
commons
attributes
4.0 licence.
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virtual situation, which is activated by the software of
today's point.
Strategic analysts need to empower decision-makers
to look at themselves with confidence, especially in
future-oriented, uncertain situations. For this reason,
strategic analysts should not fall into any of the
following inadequacy options:
• misunderstanding the actions of o
thers, both
individuals and states;
• presenting simple facts, regardless of problems and
methods of solving them;
• lack of equipment corresponding to new realities;
• not being able to analyze the new realities that are
constantly appearing in the world;
• lack of preparation for working with future threats
and problems, not today.
If we look a little deeper into this issue, strategic
analysis analyzes the consequences of actions, while
tactical analysis analyzes the actions themselves. A
strategic analysis should keep the point of both today
and the future in a single, integrated structure.
In a conflict situation, the main problems are the goals
and plans of the opponent, which means that we need
to know in advance the next move of the opponent.
For example, as early as September 25, a three-page
classified document, divided into nine categories,
defining the future goals of terrorist activities, arrived
on George Bush's desk.
1
:
1
Woodward B
. Bush at war.
–
New York etc., 2002. - P. 132-
133
• political centers
- Washington, as well as federal
offices everywhere;
• i
nfrastructure points - airports, roads, ports, railways,
dams, tunnels, bridges;
• economic systems
- Wall Street, Chicago shopping
centers;
• energy infrastructures
- oil processing plants, oil
storages;
• military targets
- areas where military forces are
gathered, military bases, weapons depots;
• global telecommunications
- electronic transit
points, internet transit centers, bank wires;
• educational centers
- Harvard University and
Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston;
• cultural centers
- Hollywood, squares;
• monuments and other symbols of national identity.
However, it should be noted that the reason why this
attack did not have its proper place and role is that all
measures were taken to ensure the security of these
facilities.
Strategic thinking predetermines our ability to create
optimal options for strategy. If we divide the strategy
into types according to the goal, then both military,
economic and other desired strategies are formed with
the help of political goals, that is, political strategies are
more important, and the rest participate in a
supporting role. Objectives are related to viewpoints,
and the political viewpoint as the head constructs
objectives based on its preferences. At this point, the
opposite of this situation should be understood as a
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mistake when other players (for example, the military)
throw away the rules of the game. At the same time,
such a mistake is made by political players, who
interfere in affairs outside their areas of responsibility.
E. Kord stopped J. Bush, the head of the former
president's administration, when he wanted to
manage not only strategy, but also tactics.
"Don't be a general, be a president. You win, but leave
that chance to the generals. If you impose restrictions
on generals that affect their ability to win a war...
2
” .
Strategy represents a powerful tool with not only
practical, but also theoretical content at the same time.
As one review points out, strategy, like strategic
thinking, is still not viewed as an equal among other
academic disciplines. It was mentioned by the military,
who were the first to weaponize strategy, and for a
long time strategy remained for them a phenomenon
requiring considerable mental work. Realizing the
importance of strategy in the battle of competition,
business has incorporated it
3
.
We will see that the result of the choice of one or
another strategy will change the course of
development, as in the events of September 11. For the
United States, it is precisely this point that led to a
change in strategy for the fight against terrorism. If
terrorism was a criminal phenomenon during the
Clinton era, for the Bush administration, terrorism has
become a real enemy, which had to be destroyed only
by means of weapons. For the first time, such an idea
was expressed in the closed speech of Defense
2
Woodward B
. Bush at war.
–
New York etc., 2002.
–
P. 176
3
Scarborough R
. ‘This is war’, Rumsfeld told Bush
//
Washington Times.
–
2004.
–
Februa
ry 23; книжное издание
–
Scarborough
R.
Rumsfeld’s war. The untold story of
America’s anti
-terrorist commander.
–
Washington, 2004
Minister D. Rumsfeld to J. Bush: "This is not a criminal
act. This is war." These words were said exactly four
hours after the plane crashed into the walls of the
Pentagon, it was recorded in the book called "Voyna
Rumsfeld". “It was a really strategic and intellectual
shift. The presentation of the events of September 11
as a strategy-demanding war was a sufficient basis, and
many events started from this event
4
. That is, such an
idea was the impetus for choosing a different strategy.
Depending on the case being analyzed, such decisions
are of critical importance. D. worked as Bush's
speechwriter. Fram says quite sharply in this regard:
"Presidents either control events or are pressured by
them." The failure to take control of the events of 9/11
left Bush somewhat weakened by 9/12.
5
"
Decision making J. Based on the table given by
Baydon, it is like a chain: KMQH - Observation, Goal,
Decision, Action. One way or another, it is possible to
clarify the incident (in the case given above, it could be
either criminal or military). One way or another
clarification of the event automatically leads to the
choice of strategy.
We can clarify the phenomenon from the point of view
of error, standard and strategic, that is, always new.
The standard handling of 9/11 is an action on the
criminal schedule, the strategic handling is a military
strategy, and 9/11 is an example that prompts a
reexamination. An example of a wrong decision is
Montezuma's wrong decision that led to the Cortes
Wars
6
. Hindus had only white-skinned Gods in their
4
Scarborough
R.
Rumsfeld’s war. The untold story of America’s
anti-terrorist commander.
–
Washington, 2004
4
5
Frum D
. The right man. An inside account of the Bush White
House.
–
New York, 2003.
–
P. 133
6
Harris L.
Al Qaeda’s fantasy
ideology // Policy Review.
–
N 114
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Publisher:
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memory, which gave them the impetus for a wrong
decision. Thus, the correct definition of the problem is
the basis for the construction of a clear and optimal
strategy.
The events of September 11 lead the United States to
make several decisions, as a result of which the
following unconventional steps were taken:
•
military strategy, not police;
•
active preparation not only for the war, but also for
the post-war situation in Iraq;
•
new role of special units.
All these details come from a new type of entity
(small, mobile terrorist units and terrorist networks)
that are not easily detected by conventional methods.
Strategic thinking works in the area of expanding our
goals and capabilities. Habitual thinking is associated
with limited goals and opportunities. There are three
different types of expansions that are derived from
each other:
1.
expanding the number of moving factors, forces
and participants;
2.
expanding the territory of decisions;
3.
expanding the area of activities.
It is strategic thinking that allows you to consider not
only your own decisions, but also those of your
opponent. It is strategic thinking that can push its
vision forward 5-10-25-100 years. That is, it goes beyond
the point of narrow possibilities defined by the time
zone. Strategic thinking can break the limitations
imposed by time and space.
Today, regions such as Europe approach their global
strategies in economic terms. That is, their
geostrategies are becoming geoeconomic. On the
other hand, in the West's struggle with the USSR,
geostrategic issues were resolved by geoeconomic
means. The destruction of the economy of the USSR
led to the fundamental solution of many strategic
issues.
We see that today strategic thinking expands not only
the capabilities of the individual, but also the
capabilities of the state. This is very important for
Uzbekistan, which is looking for its rightful place on the
chessboard in today's difficult and complex
geopolitical struggle. However, strategic thinking is
very difficult to teach, even though many attempts are
made to do so, especially in the military. G. According
to Summers, the only way to do this is to work together
to identify and educate competent strategists.
Furthermore, it moves away from the concept of
strategy as simply linking means and ends
7
. According
to him, the strategist should be more concerned with
conceptual and less material components. That is, in
his opinion, the strategy is more connected with the
theory, or rather with the creative field.
Here we can distinguish a set of details related to
strategic thinking. E. Lawrence J. Based on Lidtky's
model, he distinguishes the following complexes and
constructs his analysis:
•
systemic perspective,
•
concentrated intention,
•
openness to new experience,
•
thinking about time,
•
working with hypotheses.
7
Summers H. G., Jr
. Military strategy. Conversations //
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E. Lawrence himself does not make a sharp distinction
between strategic planning, analytically, and strategic
thinking, creatively. They complement each other, and
he argues that the objective construction of the
strategy is only possible if these two processes are
involved
8
.
From the point of view of common sense, even here
simple planning is not considered as a mandatory
component. According to the results of the survey
conducted by FOM, 52 percent of Russians make plans
for the future, and 44 percent do not make any plans
9
.
Here the plans do not have any basis with them, in
which the owners of the plan become ordinary
dreamers. Such a situation cannot be in strategic
thinking, because strategy is always practical in nature.
It is known that G. Based on the meta-level, Kahn lays
out several options for future construction. However,
the seeker in this position is better equipped to deal
with the blows ahead than the seeker who strategizes
about the situation.
Strategies can be divided into several types according
to their construction, purpose and basis. Undoubtedly,
different types of strategic thinking are created here.
In real practical work, where a real strategist is
engaged, we can meet the following three types of
strategies:
•
constructor: this is the default option that builds
events that go to a specific target,
•
fiery: to put a "platform" on a rapidly developing
and chaotic event, the presence of such a platform
causes the change of events. The availability of
8
Lawrence E.
Strategic thinking //
www.psc.cfp.gc.ca
9
Нарышкина А.
Антикризисное планирование
//
www.inauka.ru
resources adapts events to such a platform.
Perhaps the Bolsheviks in 1917 were stuck in the
incipient chaos.
•
alerter or seeker: when we are only following
trends, the possibility of interfering with reality
remains in another dimension.
In general, we can see that some variants of the above
strategy are compatible with each other in certain
practices. However, they still differ in content.
What is fundamentally important for strategic thinking
is the consid eration of two additional parameters: the
aggressive behavior of the environment and the
autonomous behavior of the opponent/adversary. If
the environment is less amenable to management, and
we can build only some variants of defense against it,
the situation with the opponent is a little different.
A strategist tries to control not only his own "power",
but also the opponent's "power". In the latter case, he
can mislead his adversary by providing false
information, leading to dead ends in order to destroy
his military units. All these actions are done to program
the opponent's actions. Such situations are common in
election campaigns. For example, the opponent
adopts a completely different sociology, thus they
tend to take actions that do not correspond to the
events at all. The strategist here tries to "manage"
both his own and others' actions. Even if he didn't
succeed, he would still try to predict his opponent's
actions.
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STRATEGIC
PREDICTS
adversary's move
PROGRAMMING THE
OPPONENT'S MOVEMENT
Sustaining performance at multiple levels, typical of
strategizing, is a more complex process than operating
at one level. Here, the players/objects of these levels
conduct their own independent actions. A sufficiently
complex object appears here, which requires constant
adaptation of the initial strategy to changes. Strategy
is not only the collection of a set of events, but also the
structure of its constant adaptation to changing
realities.
Decision-making begins with the recognition that this
or that information is true or false. Strategic thinking
must be able to consider only the most important
aspects without being distracted by others, because it
is impossible to process all the information. It is on the
basis of this ability/inability that all defeats of strategic
thinking are built. For example, CIA received
information about expected terrorists from the
German special unit, but could not use this
opportunity
10
. One of the decisions that was made in
the US was that this type of information was now
10
Risen J. a.o.
C. I. A. was given data on hijacker long before
9/11 // New York Times.
–
2004.
–
February 24
collected outside of the organizations (the FBI and the
CIA) if they had not previously shared their
information. To date, not only a special ministry -
Department of Homeland Security, but also a Terrorist
Threat Integration center, a separate center for
terrorist threats, has been established. In theory, this
situation brings information together and facilitates
the decision-making process.
However, many analysts have accepted this as a way to
cover up the remaining problems of data collection and
analysis
11
. In essence, this is true, because the problem
lies not only in the organizational issues of solving it,
for which many other structures can be created, but in
its final solution. One of the problems is, on the one
hand, in the new methods of analysis and training of
analysts, and on the other hand, in the specific training
of policy-makers focused on their interactions with
data collectors. V. Hanson also understands that
11
Babbin J.
Operation: Langley transformation //
www.nationalreview.com
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decision-making
is
not
about
creating
new
bureaucratic structures, but about changing ethics
12
.
Strategic thinking is looking into the future: we look
from the future to the present and from the present to
the present. Pericles strategizes for the second battle
of the Athenians in the Peloponnesian Wars based on
their low manpower. If they lose the first battle, they
lose the whole battle. Therefore, Pericles chose a
strategy of defense on land and attack on water
13
.
In a stable and predictable situation, strategic
thinking, which is more consistent with western ideas,
relies on the left hemisphere, and when there is a lot of
uncertainty, it relies on the right hemisphere, which is
more creative and corresponds to eastern ideas.
Interestingly, this occurs not only in business, but also
in war
14
. Terrorism turned out to be a creative
direction, contrary to Western views.
In general, strategic thinking operates within a clear
boundary that determines one or another decision-
making option:
•
the point of future and today, the goal of the future
strategy, if today is presented as an important
element of the structure of tomorrow,
•
available and non-
available “anti
-
resources”, that
is,
the
level
of
resistance
of
the
opponent/opponent.
Aggressive environment, strong opponent, personal
inertia - these are the things all make it difficult to move
forward. But there are more factors that drive
people/organizations/states forward, otherwise there
12
Hanson V. D.
W
e’re removing Saddam Huse
in //
www.usni.org
13
Хаммонд Н.
История древней Греции. –
М., 200
14
O’Shannassy
T. Lessons from the evolution of the strategy
paradigm //
would be no movement at all. However, an action may
or may not be right or wrong, optimal or non-optimal
in terms of resource availability. It all comes down to
strategic thinking that is pragmatic and practical.
Interesting strategic players are usually interesting
practitioners. For example, J., known as the number
one theorist in information warfare at the Pentagon
and REND. Arkvilla advised the chief on strategy during
the Persian Gulf wars. Famous for his works, Professor
Michael Handel, known from his works, during this
period, advised the military administration on the
issues of misleading the opponent. It is possible that it
was his idea to mislead the Iraqi administration about
the location of the American military. The most
important part of achieving success is having a goal
and a strategy. As one business analyst says: "If we
know where we're going, we're more likely to get
there
15
." He cites the following obstacles to strategic
planning:
•
people exaggerate their daily operations,
•
people feel the uncertainty of the future,
•
planning is hard enough.
We look at all of this as a psychological preoccupation
with today's problems in relation to tomorrow. Man is
more suited to today than to tomorrow. It was given to
him by biology. Only some have long-term planning
features found in the animal world.
In planning, there is some uncertainty of the future, in
any case, there is an alternative of options, and we
choose the most optimal one among them, for
15
Donald D. J.
Classical masters. Review essay of Handel M.I
Masters of war: classical strategic thought // Naval War
College Review.
–
2002. - Spring
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example, B. Deich cites the following principles of
planning:
•
today's decisions limit tomorrow's actions,
•
time significantly affects the stability of the plan,
•
the more strongly the planned changes deviate
from the decisions taken, the stronger the
potential for resistance to the changes.
At this point, it should be noted that the capabilities of
strategic thinking and strategic planning should not be
exaggerated. Ron Robinson, director of one of the
consulting business enterprises, identified a number of
mistakes that should be taken into account in strategic
planning:
•
believe that the strategic plan represents a
panacea in itself,
•
considering the plan as an end product,
•
external structure of the plan,
•
failure to collect all necessary information,
•
destruction by analysis,
•
lack of circulation,
•
impossibility of implementing the plan
16
.
At this point, compared to the Ministry of Defense,
business often takes a riskier strategy. This can be
explained in this way, which means that taxpayers
need to be more careful when it comes to spending
money. It is possible that excess costs are negative for
businesses, so they operate within a dual-advantage
framework.
The mission is defined by the authors as the
commitment of the organization. Drive is the
organization's unique sense of identity and shared
sense of purpose. Strategy combines means and goals.
16
Robinson R.
Seven sins of strategic planning //
A strategic plan is a set of actions for the
implementation of the strategy.
The excellent options of strategy do not go directly to
tactics in an understandable direction (quasi-prosaic),
but in an indirect way (quasi-poetic) that takes
advantage of the opportunities that the other side did
not use. This transition occurs not in the expected,
understandable, horizontal direction, but in an
unexpected, incomprehensible movement. That is why
E. Luttwak refers to strategy as non-linear transition. A
strategic goal cannot be achieved in a simple way. This
goal is always closed to us by the sum of several
obstacles.
Max Broad F. Analyzing Kafka's life and work, he puts
forward the following interesting idea: "God's desires
seem illogical to us, that is, they contradict our human
logic
17
." A strategy doesn't make sense if we look at it
today, but if we look at it from the perspective of the
future, it adds some logic to it. The strategist does the
same thing, that is, while the tactician looks at the
situation from the present, the strategist evaluates the
situation from the perspective of the future and tries
to find a suitable solution for it.
However, only a few people manage to look at the
situation from the future, which is why the
construction of the strategy is complicated. Strategic
thinking is considered a specialized thinking that
develops less from everyday experience.
In conclusion, it can be said that strategic thinking
increases the chances of an organization, enterprise,
country, and humanity to survive for a long time.
Strategic thinking tries to preserve the parameters of
17
Брод М.
Франц Кафка. Узник абсолюта. –
М.
, 2003.
–
С.
190
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the structure in one way or another. Strategic thinking
can suggest new types of actions and methods of
influence that are completely different.
Conclusions and recommendations. Today, it is
possible to point out several notes regarding the
choice of strategy of Uzbekistan. The modern stage of
world politics and socio-economic development is
characterized by the following features:
•
globalization of the world economy;
•
information of all forms of relations;
•
acceleration of the stage of scientific and technical
development;
•
the transformation of the role of the state and the
formation of new quasi-states;
•
the development of a new economy in the process
of resource depletion.
The development and implementation of asymmetric
strategies of political-military relations is a very
important task in ensuring the national interests of
Uzbekistan and the national security of Uzbekistan.
When implementing strategic planning, we should take
into account the achievements and shortcomings of
ourselves, our management, and our partners.
Strategic planning needs to know what the opponent
thinks, strategic planning (and strategic decision-
making) uses historical analogies in politics and
business.
In short, it can be said that not all players participating
in the political scene (whether it is an individual, an
organization or a state) have the opportunity to use
strategy as an instrument. Strategic activity is a
separate art. On the one hand, the strategy process
involves a limited number of experts, while it has a
systematic description and requires special analytical
skills. Another important aspect of the problem is that
even an entire country may or may not have its own
strategy. Because every organization, management
div has a limit to imagine its future. Usually their main
efforts are determined by solving their daily problems.
As a result, under the influence of all the mentioned
factors, strategy, strategic thinking and management
will not work. As the famous saying goes, if you don't
have your own strategy, you live with someone else's.
That is, there is a foreign strategy in life (there is no
strategic gap, just as there is no gap without ideology)
and it continues to develop within the country without
any obstacles.
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// www.capitol.northgrum.com.
2.
Deutsch B. J. The art of strategic planning //
www.work-at-home-index.net.
3.
Robinson R. Seven sins of strategic planning //
www.charityvillage.com.
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Levy D. G. a.o. Strategic and performance
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Volume 02 Issue 10-2022
53
International Journal of Pedagogics
(ISSN
–
2771-2281)
VOLUME
02
I
SSUE
10
Pages:
44-53
SJIF
I
MPACT
FACTOR
(2021:
5.
705
)
(2022:
5.
705
)
OCLC
–
1121105677
METADATA
IF
–
5.689
Publisher:
Oscar Publishing Services
Servi
audiences. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48
(3): 287
–
309
