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Друкер
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Коэн
,
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Нийкамп
(2002) Comprehensive methodology for
assessing the quality of life in the region // Bulletin of ISEU. 2009; (1): 1-7.
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изд. М. ЮНИТИ, 2009. МЭ и МЭО: Учебник/ Под.ред. проф.
А.С.
Булатова, проф. Н.Н.
Ливенцева. М. Магистр,
2008. Типовой закон
ЮНСИТРАЛ об электронной торговле.
STATISTICAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS OF THE BANKING
SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY
Gafurova Dildoraxon Fatykhovna,
Lecturer at the Russian University of Economics named after G.V. Plekhanov
Annotation: In this article, the issues of methodological support of
statistical analysis of the efficiency management of the banking sector are
considered. First of all, its role and place in the development of the economy.
It is noted that there is little attention to the problem of methodology in
modern scientific research and the ongoing policy of the banking sector. The
substantiation of the strategy of intensive development of the banking sector
is considered. Especially under market conditions. Namely, to increase the
level and economic efficiency of intensification, strengthening the role of the
state in economic regulation and support of this process.
According to economic theory, commodity-money relations are based
on three diagrams. In the first drawing, the commodity is exchanged for the
commodity, in the second the commodity is exchanged for the commodity
through money, and in the third, the money is transferred from one person to
another. Consequently, the movement of money is part of a commodity-
money relationship that represents the independent movement of money.
A practical approach to the nature of cash flows highlights the main forms of
monetary relations: budget – the formation of budgets and the expenditure of
funds from them; taxes – payment (collection) of taxes and fees; credit is the
transfer and return of money. A bank is a special credit institution that has the
right to conduct banking operations and is: attraction of funds on deposits
from individuals and legal entities, return of these funds; placement on its
behalf and at its own expense on terms of maturity; opens and maintains
bank accounts of individuals and legal entities [1].
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One of the main tasks today is to study methodological approaches to
the formation of sectoral and macroeconomic assessments of the efficiency
of the banking sector of the economy. General conceptual approaches to
assessing the efficiency of the banking sector will be considered in
accordance with the following areas of activity, which represent a potential
source of economic efficiency: areas of production activities related to the
provision of financial services, the effect of which is determined mainly by the
degree of rationality of the use of gross production resources; areas of
organizational decision-making and management, determined by the quality
of strategic and operational decisions that are cost-effective (institutional
changes, focus on expanding areas of activity, expanding the range of
services provided, etc.); economic efficiency is an investment area
determined by the return on assets formed on the basis of invested
resources; the sphere of competitive relations, within which the cost-effective
organization is ensured as a result of the implementation of market
advantages (capital centralization, the use of a monopoly in the market of
specialized banking services, etc.) [2]. The main content for banking
organizations is the use of statistical methods of performance analysis in the
field of production activities, the implementation of intermediary functions, the
most appropriate and comparable integral assessments for specific banking
organizations, and the solution of the development task. In practice, its
possible solution is to use approaches related to the formation of aggregate
indicators, which are carried out in statistics based on the use of the relevant
rules of the theory of aggregate structures.
In this regard, the effectiveness of the organization’s activities is the use
of statistical structures that underlie the formation of the classical average
geometric index to assess the degree of compliance of current and target
indicators. According to this approach, it is advisable to formulate specific
efficiency indices in terms of current levels and their ratio to target or average
values. In practice, their organization can be based on the use of private
index systems on a hierarchical principle, which allows ensuring the required
level of detail of the parameters to be taken into account. Taking into account
the specifics of the sources of economic efficiency in the implementation of
specific management or organizational decisions in the banking sector of the
economy for the field of management, statistical analysis of efficiency is
advisable to limit the areas associated with assessing their impact on
changes in overall financial and economic performance; changes in the
values of specific performance indicators of banking organizations (including
relative indicators and traditional cost ratios); value indicators of the
organization as an object of capitalization. In the first and second cases, the
content of such assessments is related to the impact of systemic efficiency on
the scale of cost reductions or the formation of performance indicators of
economic activity in the new conditions of the organization, and in the latter
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case – the measurement of market value dynamics of the organization. In this
case, the use of the hypothesis evaluation method seems to be a sufficiently
adequate and universal approach to the analysis using the hypothesis
measurement method as the main tool for statistical measurement of the
significance of the observed changes in the values of the indicators taken into
account. At the same time, it is advisable to use the main financial and
economic indicators of banking organizations or a system of key ratios as a
database for such calculations.
In developing the methodological support of statistical analysis of the
management aspect of efficiency, special attention should be paid to the
assessments of the processes of addition and merging in the banking sector
of the economy. For countries with economies in transition, this aspect of the
analysis seems to be most relevant as ensuring the real development of this
sector and increasing the competitiveness of banks in the market of financial
intermediation services. We propose calculations describing changes in their
market value, taking into account the significant features of the processes
analyzed, as the most appropriate indicators of the results of structural
changes in banking institutions recognized by other market economy entities.
In this case, it is recommended to expand the method of estimating the
hypotheses to indicators that characterize the market value of such results,
formed in the form of appropriate stock indices. At the same time, alternative
approaches to such calculations, in particular, the methods widely used in
foreign statistics in the field of special events, known as “event study”,
including methods of estimating the exchange rate of financial assets (SARM
model in foreign statistics – Capital Asset) Known as the Pricing Model),
regression models, etc. are considered to assess the normal (expected) level
of income. The main areas of investment activity, which represent potential
sources of income for the banking sector of the economy and, accordingly,
are the subject of efficiency assessment, are direct investments, portfolio
investments, participation in investment funds [3]. Each of the presented
directions is characterized by features that determine the specificity of the use
of statistical methods in assessing the effectiveness of innovative activities,
as well as the feasibility or expediency of such an assessment by banking
institutions. In this regard, first of all, the specificity of the latter direction is
determined by the existence of objective restrictions in terms of controlling the
placement of invested resources for the banking sector of the economy,
which significantly limits the ability to create realistic calculations of efficiency.
In contrast to direct investments, which are characterized by the existence of
a methodological framework for statistical analysis of efficiency (including
existing international recommendations in this area, in particular, the
guidelines for evaluating the effectiveness of investments of the United
Nations Industrial Development Organization – UNIDO), portfolio investments
made by banking institutions In assessing the effectiveness, as a rule, it is
necessary to adapt the existing statistical methods to the characteristics of
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the database used. In particular, it shows the features of the use of classical
methods of statistical forecasting based on stock exchange statistics.
However, the approaches used in their analysis emphasize that there are
fundamental differences that are primarily determined by the expected
periods of investment.
A separate area of use of statistical methods and models in the analysis
of the efficiency of the banking sector of the economy is the area of
competitive relations. A classic example of the systemic effect of the
implementation of the competitive advantages of the organization in the
market of banking services is the considered scale effect (returns to scale,
scale effect). In this case, efficiency estimates for the banking sector of the
economy can be obtained based on the use of traditional statistical methods
and models. However, it is important to select generalized quantitative
indicators that characterize the scope of activities of the banking sector as a
source of appropriate economic efficiency. In this regard, the Herfindal-
Hirschmann general index, which allows the assessment of the degree of
centralization of operations in the banking sector of the economy, is a
sufficiently consistent scale indicator [4]. A more common apparatus of
production functions can also be recommended in statistical practice to
compile appropriate calculations, which reflects the relationship between
changes in the number of resources used and changes in the corresponding
production results. The specifics of the use of statistical methods in the
analysis of the effectiveness of specific aspects of the activities of
organizations in the banking sector of the economy are given in the table
below (Table).
Sources of cost-
effectiveness
Methods and models
Processes to be analyzed
Financial
intermediation
Index method
Attracting and allocating financial
resources
Area of
management
Hypothesis testing
Correlation-regression
analysis
Shaping market value
Addition and merging processes
Exchange processes
Investment sector
Methods of forecasting
Compilation of calculation
coefficients
Discounting methods
Methods of quoting
parameters
Exchange processes
Investment processes
The field of
competitive
relations
Production functions
Production functions Capital
centralization
Combining activities
Table.The main directions of the use of statistical methods in the
analysis of the effectiveness of banking organizations
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The analysis substantiates the conclusion that the most promising
approaches are aimed at assessing technical efficiency in terms of
methodological and practical aspects in the development of complex
assessments for banking organizations. In this case, the methodological
basis of the analysis is quite common in the theory and practice of statistics
and can be a schematic representation of their activities in the form of a
model with a set of input (resources) and output (production) parameters.
This approach creates similarities between the statistical models that
formalize the processes of the banking sector and industrial enterprises,
which allows harmonizing the basic principles of the theory of the
development of financial and banking institutions and the classical theory of
corporate processes. A typical and most common example of a parametric
model used in modern banking sector performance appraisal and considered
as a tool for conducting experimental calculations is a model based on the
construction of Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). According to the
interpretation of the calculated ratios obtained on its basis, an organization is
considered inefficient if its operating costs exceed the optimal level
conditionally (according to the potential capabilities of the organization) on a
scale not explained by existing statistical errors. It is also noted that the
principles of creating models for assessing the efficiency of the banking
sector of the economy can be extended to the level of sectoral and
macroeconomic research. This thesis is confirmed by several specific
examples from foreign and international practice, in particular, studies related
to the analysis of the efficiency of the banking sector in the European Union,
Asia-Pacific region [5].
One of the most promising and modern international statistical
standards for assessing the efficiency of the banking sector of the economy
at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels is an approach based on the use of
information and methodological base of the SCO. According to the SCO, the
banking sector of the economy represents an element (subject) of economic
turnover interrelated with other entities within the system of financial flows,
and as a sector of the economy (financial and non-financial corporations,
public sector, households, and non-profit organizations) will be displayed.
Such assessments in the SNA can be made based on a system of indicators
presented in the relevant accounts of the system. In our view, the advantage
of this approach over other approaches available in modern statistics is the
balance of indicators used and the ability to create different combinations of
evaluation criteria based on them based on the goals and objectives of the
study. At the same time, there are different possibilities for the
implementation of certain aspects of the analysis, based on the content of
information used, which is primarily determined by the level of development of
national statistics in individual countries. Current statistics For countries
operating in the context of the application of all methodological principles of
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the SCO, a complete set of indicators reflected in the calculations of the SCO
can be used for economic and statistical analysis. In the absence of such a
system, the initial set of indicators is limited by the methodological and
technical capabilities of the separation of indicators related to the activities of
the banking sector of the economy within the accounting system used.
In the first case, such an analysis may be based on the use of a system
of indicators formed for the mixed subsector “Banks, Bills of Exchange” and
“Savings Banks”. In our opinion, such a system may, in its entirety, consist of
the sum of all the indicators reflected in the MHT accounts. In the latter case,
the possibilities of analyzing the efficiency of the banking sector of the
economy are limited only to the general aspects of the activities of
organizations in the field of financial intermediation. Credit organizations, as
business entities, make it a priority to make a profit in their activities. A
financial institution cannot operate without a certain share of income, but, as
a rule, in the case of banks, it is not advisable to prioritize profit as a single
goal, because in this case banks are misdirected to society and society to
banks. Thus, it is appropriate to interpret the purpose of the activities of credit
institutions as activities that are in the interests of customers (ie, provide the
necessary monetary resources and other operations in the credit market) for
profit. Therefore, it is more accurate to say that banks operate on a
commercial basis and do not make profitability their main goal. To fully
understand the goals and activities of the bank, it is necessary to define its
mission. In the context of the pandemic, the following are distinguished:
development and strengthening of the banking system, protection, and
maintenance of the stability of the national currency; the Central Bank, which
is responsible for ensuring the stability and development of the payment
system, as well as for the issuance of funds. In addition to the Central Bank,
there is a system of banks engaged in commercial banking, including
universal banks that carry out a wide range of banking operations and
operate in the interests of the client; investment banks engaged in operations
with investments in securities and derivative financial instruments; savings
banks, the main purpose of which is to attract funds from the population.
Credit institutions perform several functions that, following their
functions and the purpose of their existence, maintain the status of a
commercial bank and radically separate their activities from the activities of
the company in any other independent economic sphere. First of all, credit
institutions, while acting as financial institutions, are engaged in attracting and
accumulating temporarily vacant funds of the population. The funds
accumulated in bank accounts, on the one hand, bring income to their
owners, on the other hand, they serve as resources for the bank’s credit
operations, serve as a source for lending. This function is not only the main
function for a commercial bank but also serves as the main type of activity
and income. The second distinctive function of the bank in the financial
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market is its activity as an intermediary in lending. Thus, the commercial bank
eliminates the problems inherent in the credit sector and assumes some of
the risks. The Bank directs the accumulated temporarily vacant funds to a
location where it can generate economic benefits by calculating and
correcting all possible risks, taking into account in advance the more
favorable terms of the transaction. Currently, a lot of payments for individuals
and legal entities go through banks. Therefore, mediation in the
implementation of settlements and payments can be called a separate
function of banking, as only credit institutions have the absolute right and
ability to regulate and ensure the settlement process between almost all types
of subjects of money circulation and economic relations. By optimizing their
operations, banks carry out successful operations with many financial
instruments, offering customers various forms of accounts: letters of credit,
payment orders, collection, checks and promissory notes, bank cards, and
more. In addition, credit institutions are actively developing and offering new
products (e.g., the development of electronic cashless payments, which has
become very popular in recent years, on new terms that are attractive to
customers) [6].
The purpose of a bank analysis is to determine its reliability, solvency,
and ability to cover potential losses at its own expense. Thus, the bank
balance sheet is a tool of bank management. Financial analysis often
considers financial stability, solvency, liquidity, business activity, absolute and
relative indicators of profitability. There are three main methods of analysis:
horizontal analysis, vertical analysis, and coefficient analysis. Horizontal
analysis is based on the grouping of assets and liabilities (separately). The
essence of this methodology is to determine the absolute growth rates of
balance items, to identify trends in substances, to predict the increase or
decrease in the amount of substance. When conducting a horizontal analysis
of the bank’s balance sheet, it is necessary to pay attention to the decrease in
the volume and specific weight of the securities portfolio, expressed in total
assets. Since the horizontal method is fundamental to the bank, it requires
monitoring changes in lending and investment activities. Thus, large changes
in this or that substance should be identified and justified by horizontal
analysis. It should be noted that the growth of bank assets often leads to
negative consequences. However, horizontal analysis of a bank’s balance
sheet alone is not sufficient to assess, it is necessary to analyze banking
performance using other effective methods using different indicators. Vertical
analysis determines the structure of a company’s assets and liabilities by
allocating separate weights to balance sheet groups. Specific weights allow
determining the share of certain resources in the bank’s balance sheet, ie: to
assess the composition of the customer base, determine the value of bank
resources, identify the main types of active operations, identify the most
effective and inefficient investments of the bank, develop measures for asset
and liability management.
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The study of the structure of the balance sheet of a commercial bank
should begin, first of all, with the analysis of liabilities that reflect its funds and
sources of borrowed funds, as the volume and composition of liabilities is a
condition determining the form and direction of the use of bank resources.
Commercial banks must maintain the ratio of their funds and borrowed funds
by established standards. The active operations of the bank mainly make up
a large part of its economic activity. The balance sheet asset describes the
composition, placement, and intended use of bank funds. It shows what
financial resources are spent on and what the purpose of available economic
resources is [7]. In short, each bank has its characteristics of managing its
activities. However, they do not have to be the same in different countries.
The activities of banks in any country are directly related to issues of national
importance, such as regulating the monetary economy and thereby reducing
or increasing the money supply, ensuring the soundness of the country’s
finances through the reduction or issuance of loans.
REFERENCES:
1. Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. PF–5177
of September 2, 2017 “On priority measures to liberalize foreign exchange
policy”, No. PP–3270 of September 12, 2017 “Measures for further
development and stability of the banking system of the Republic” Resolution
on Source: https://lex.uz/docs/3107036.
2. Beloglazova G.N., Krolivetskaya L.P. Accounting in commercial
banks. In 2 volumes – M.: Yurait-Izdat, 2012.
3. Mirzaev F.I. Conceptual bases of formation of interbank competition
in Uzbekistan. Doctor of Economics diss. abstracts. T.: Banking and Finance
Academy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2009. – P. 36.
4. Maslikova E.N. Problems of economic and statistical analysis of the
banking sector activities. Nineteenth International Plekhanov Readings
Abstracts M, REAim GV Plekhanov, 2006 – 0.1pl
5. Ortiqov O.A. Banking services in the context of interbank competition
and ways to improve them. iqt. fan. nom. diss. avt. T.: 2009. – P. 23.
6. Poletaeva E.N. Evaluation of the efficiency of the banking sector of
the economy experience of international research Consultant to the director.
M, No. 7 (259), 2006 – 0.2 p l
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the banking sector of the economy Twentieth International Plekhanov
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