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DEMOGRAPHY INDICATORS AND UZBEKISTAN’S INFLUENCING
FACTORS
Niyozov Ikhtiyor Kadyrzoda
2nd-year student in the Geography and Fundamentals of Economic Knowledge
program at Gulistan State Pedagogical Institute
Mavlonkulova Shakhlo Sherzod kizi
2nd-year student in the Geography and Fundamentals of Economic Knowledge
program at Gulistan State Pedagogical Institute
Abstract:
This article analyzes the rapid population growth in the Republic of
Uzbekistan, the factors influencing this process, and the potential social issues that
may arise as a result of demographic growth. Based on official statistics, the study
examines the impact of social factors on the country's future economic situation, as
well as the extent to which economic conditions affect demographics, using statistical
methods.
Key words:
population, economy, state, society, elderly, demography, pension,
budget, forecast, statistics, birth rate, mortality.
O‘ZBEKISTONNING DEMOGRAFIK KO‘RSATKICHLARI VA UNGA
TA’SIR QILUVCHI OMILLAR
Annotatsiya:
Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekiston Respublikasi aholisining yuqori
sur’atda ortib borishi, ushbu jarayonga ta’sir etuvchi omillar hamda demografik
o‘sish natijasida yuzaga kelishishi mumkin bo‘lgan ijtimoiy muammolar tahlil
qilinadi. Rasmiy statistika asosida malakatning kelajakdagi iqtisodiy holatiga ijtimoiy
omillarning ta’siri hamda iqtisodiy holatning demografiyaga ta’siri statistik usullar
yordamida o‘rganiladi.
Kalit so‘zlar:
Aholi, iqtisod, davlat, jamiyat, keksalar, demografiya, pensiya,
byudjet, prognoz, statistika, tug‘ilish, o‘lim.
When we hear the word “society,” we immediately envision people that is, the
population of the Earth, or the inhabitants of a particular country or region. The term
“population” refers to a group of people living in a specific area. These groups form
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the foundation of society. Since the emergence of humanity on the planet, many eras
have passed. Throughout these periods, humans have continuously strived to preserve
their existence and develop within society.
In this process, people have used natural resources to create the means necessary
to meet their material needs, establishing and developing an economic system.
Accordingly, the world’s population and human settlements have steadily grown.
Thus, in the development of society, three key factors population, natural resources,
and the economy are closely interconnected and play a vital role. [1; p.5]
When studying the population, we naturally turn to “Population Geography,”
which is a branch of the system of geographical sciences. Population geography, as
an independent discipline, fulfills a number of tasks that carry both theoretical and
practical significance.
Theoretical tasks:
to improve the theoretical foundations of population
geography (such as studying the processes and laws of population reproduction).
Practical tasks:
to observe and analyze the population size, composition,
reproduction, territorial distribution, migration, and the development of urban and
rural settlements in the world, its regions, foreign countries, and our own nation, as
well as to prepare scientific recommendations.
Demography is one of the sciences that is closely and comprehensively
connected to population geography. This science also studies the population, but from
its own specific perspective focusing on the laws of population reproduction. Thus,
population geography directly refers to demography when studying the population.
Such studies are known as demographic research. [2; p.49]
Relevance of the Topic:
The growth of the population directly complicates
production and is considered one of the factors that drive the development of
agriculture. The term “population size” refers to the total number of people currently
living. Today, the world population continues to grow without interruption. As of
November 2024, the global population exceeds 8,140,000,000 people. If we compare
this figure with that of a century ago, the difference is immense. For instance, in
1927, the world population was about 2 billion, and by 1950, it had reached 2.5
billion. In the second half of the 20th century, the world population increased at a
very rapid pace. Global population growth during the second half of the 20th century
averaged 1.75%.
Scientists refer to such a rapid increase in population as a “demographic
explosion.” [1; p.51]
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Within the global community, population censuses are conducted within specific
timeframes. Since gaining independence, the population of our country has been
steadily increasing. A population census is a periodic process that involves collecting
and processing personal data characterizing the demographic and socio-economic
status of the population across the entire territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan or
within specific regions, conducted on designated dates.
In Uzbekistan, the Law on Population Census was adopted by the Legislative
Chamber on November 21, 2019, and approved by the Senate on February 28, 2020.
This law consists of 5 chapters and 31 articles. The last population census in
Uzbekistan was conducted in 1989, and no census was held after that. By 2025, it
will have been 36 years since the last census. According to the State Statistics
Committee, as of January 1, 2025, the population of Uzbekistan exceeds 37.5 million
people.
In this context, it is important to examine the methods of tracking population
numbers even without conducting a full census. The Statistical Agency monitors
population indicators through several demographic calculation methods, including:
1. Civil registration of vital statistics
– data on births and deaths are collected
continuously.
2. Migration records
– changes in the population due to those entering and
leaving the country, as well as changes in permanent residents, are taken into
account.
3. Household sample surveys
– general forecasts are made based on the
average number of residents in a particular area.
4. Trends from previous years
– forecasts are based on the annual growth rate
of the population (approximately 1.5–2%).
As a result of the processes listed above, an approximate estimate of the national
population is formed. However, these calculations are not precise figures but are
rather forecasted indicators. The actual numbers may be even higher. Population
growth also implies an increase in labor resources. The level of labor activity within
the population and the share of the working-age population engaged in social
production determine the utilization of labor resources. In Uzbekistan, this rate
exceeds 99.8%. The country’s labor force includes men aged 16 to 59 and women
aged 16 to 54, which makes up about half of the total population. Since gaining
independence, the educational level of the working population has significantly
improved and this trend continues to this day. The country’s GDP (Gross Domestic
Product) is also steadily increasing. An analysis of Uzbekistan’s GDP and its per
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capita distribution over the years shows that in 1991, per capita GDP was around
$550, and 32 years later, by 2023, this figure had increased 4.5 times to
approximately $2,500.
The growth of population income and access to permanent employment ensures
the well-being and development of both society and individual families. Currently,
the majority of the population in the country is employed or engaged in
entrepreneurial activities. The diagram below shows the share of different sectors in
the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Figure 1. Distribution of GDP by sectors
The analysis of statistical data shows that 60.5% of the population of the
republic is of working age, and 74.4% of them are currently economically active. The
constant increase in the population of the republic leads to economic problems in
43,40%
26,10%
24,30%
6,20%
Service sector
Industry
Agriculture
Construction
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The goals of the pension
system are:
various social sectors. The solution to these problems depends on the continuous
growth of the economy. According to current statistical data, the economic growth
for the years 2023-2024 and from 2024 to 2025 is projected to be 6-6.5%. Another
important impact of the demographic situation on the economy is the payment of
social and age-related benefits and pensions. The goals of the pension system are
shown in the following graph.
Figure 2: Goals of the pension system.
When analyzing the data, the following numbers have been recorded in terms of
the number of pension and social benefit recipients in recent years:
1. In 2016, 3.3 million people;
2. In 2017, 3.5 million people;
3. In 2018, 3.7 million people;
4. In 2019, 3.9 million people;
5. In 2020, 4.0 million people;
6. In 2021, 4.3 million people.
For example, in 2021, it was planned to spend a total of 36.5 trillion soms for
pensions and social benefits, of which 23.5 trillion soms would come from revenues,
To ensure a
guaranteed income in
an amount
proportionate to the
salary.
To protect citizens
from poverty in old
age by the state.
To improve the
standard of living
of citizens through
the pension system.
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and 14 trillion soms would be covered by transfers from the state budget.
Additionally, as of June 1, 2023:
The number of people receiving old-age pensions: 3,182,617;
The number of people receiving disability pensions: 426,532;
The number of people receiving survivor’s pensions: 230,359.
When analyzing these figures by regions of the country, the following diagram
is formed:
Figure 3: Recipients of pensions and social benefits by regions of the country
Recommendations:
Many issues that have vague answers can be resolved by
providing clear facts and accurate calculations. First and foremost, it is necessary to
clarify the statistics related to population forecasts based on assumptions. Delaying
the population census process is less effective than addressing this issue, as solving it
can provide solutions to several other problems. Additionally, a well-thought-out and
11,80%
11,50%
9,50%
9,30%
9,10%
8,60%
7,50%
6,00%
5,80%
5,20%
5,10%
4,10%
3,40%
3,00%
Samarkand Province
Kashkadarya Province
Fergana Province
Surkhandarya Province
Andijan Province
Namangan Province
Tashkent Province
Republic of Karakalpakstan
Khorezm Province
Tashkent city
Jizzakh Province
Bukhara Province
Navoi Province
Syrdarya Province
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calculation-based planned demographic policy should be implemented. When this
process, i.e., demographic policy, was officially introduced in India, it led to mass
protests. To avoid such situations here, solutions can be found through step-by-step
measures and public awareness campaigns.
In concluding the topic, based on the information provided above, we can say
that in most countries, population renewal is divided into four types. They are as
follows:
Type 1 - In countries of this group, both birth and death rates are high.
Type 2 - Birth rate exceeds death rate due to medical advancements.
Type 3 - In this group, both death and birth rates decline.
Type 4 - In this group, the renewal is negative, with more deaths and a
decreasing population.
When studying and analyzing these types, we can observe that Uzbekistan
currently fits into Type 2. Due to attention given to the health and well-being of
individuals in society, the average life expectancy has increased. The death rate was
5.1‰ in 2017, while the birth rate was 22.1‰. Therefore, in the near future, the
population growth rate may remain stable, and in some cases, it may even stabilize.
One of the main reasons for this stabilization is the level of economic stability and
development. When analyzing such issues, it is necessary to prepare plans and
analyze them not only based on the continuous growth of the population and its
consequences but also on Types 3 and 4 mentioned above. This is because humans
are the sole producers of material wealth. A planned economy is the key to
development!
Refrences used:
1.
Tojiyeva.Z.N., Aholi geografiyasi. “Innovatsiya-Ziyo” Toshkent 2020-
yil. 294 bet.
2.
Abdurahmonov.Q.X.,
Abduramanov.X.X.
Demografiya.”Noshir”
Toshkent 2011-yil. 296 bet.
3.
Karimov I.A. O‘zbekiston iqtisodiy islohotlarni chuqurlashtirish yo‘lida.
– T.: “O‘zbekiston”, 1995. 119-b.
4.
Mirziyoyev Sh.M. Tanqidiy tahlil, qat’iy tartib-intizom va shaxsiy
javobgarlik – har bir rahbar faoliyatining kundalik qoidasi bo‘lishi kerak. Toshkent:
“O‘zbekiston” NMIU, 2017. – 104 b.
5.
G.Qosimova,Z.Karimova. Budjetdan tashqari fondlar. O‘quv qo‘llanma.
2009-y.
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6.
O‘zbekiston demografik yillik to‘plami. Toshkent 2021-yil. 215 bet.
Internet websites
www.lex.uz
www.stat.uz
www.advice.uz
www.pfru.uz
