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ECONOMIC GROWTH, FDI AND TRADE OPENNESS: CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR
UZBEKISTAN
Ihtisham Ul Haq
Tashkent State University of Economics
Zeinabsadat Golestan
Tashkent State University of Economics
Abstract.
This study examines the causality between foreign direct investment (FDI),
economic growth, and trade openness in Uzbekistan over the period 1997-2023. Based on the
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, it is concluded that all of the variables are integrated of order
one, or I(1). Johansen cointegration test also confirms the existence of at least two long-run
cointegrating vector among the variables in question. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is
employed to examine causality in both the short and long run. The results illustrate a bi-
directional relationship between FDI, economic growth, and trade openness in both time frames.
These findings are suggestive of the reality that policies of trade liberalization and investment
climate can stimulate economic growth, FDI inflows, and trade growth concurrently. The paper
presents practical policy implications for ensuring Uzbekistan's macroeconomic stability and
long-run development via a coordinated trade and investment policy.
Keywords:
economic growth, FDI, trade openness.
I
QTISODIY O‘SISH
,
TO‘G‘RIDAN
-
TO‘G‘RI XORIJIY INVESTITSIYALAR VA SAVDO
OCHIQLIGI:
O‘ZBEKISTON
UCHUN SABAB-OQIBAT TAHLILI
Ihtisham Ul Haq
Toshkent davlat iqtisodiyot universiteti
Zeinabsadat Golestan
Toshkent davlat iqtisodiyot universiteti
Annotatsiya.
Ushbu tadqiqot 1997
–
2023-
yillar davrida O‘zbekistonda to‘g‘ridan
-
to‘g‘ri
xorijiy investitsiyalar (TXI), iqtisodiy o‘sish va savdo ochiqligi o‘rtasidagi sabab
-oqibat
munosabatlarini o‘rganadi. Kengaytirilgan Dikkey
-
Fuller (ADF) testiga ko‘ra barcha
ko‘rsatkichlar birinchi tartibli integrallashgan, ya’ni I(1) ekanligi aniqlangan. Yohansen
kointegratsiya testi esa ko‘rib chiqilayotgan o‘zgaruvchilar o‘rtasida kamida ikki
ta uzoq muddatli
kointegratsiya vektorining mavjudligini tasdiqlaydi. Qisqa va uzoq muddatdagi sababiy
aloqalarni tekshirish uchun Vektor xatolikni tuzatish modeli
(VECM) qo‘llanilgan. Natijalar TXI,
iqtisodiy o‘sish va savdo ochiqligi o‘rtasida har ikkala
vaqt momentida ham ikki tomonlama (bi-
yo‘nalishli) munosabat mavjudligini ko‘rsatadi. Ushbu natijalar savdo liberallashuvi va
investitsiya muhiti bo‘yicha siyosatlarning iqtisodiy o‘sish, TXI oqimlari va savdo hajmining bir
vaqtning o‘zida o‘sishini rag‘batlantirishi mumkinligini anglatadi. Tadqiqot O‘zbekistonning
makroiqtisodiy barqarorligi va uzoq muddatli rivojlanishini ta’minlash uchun savdo va
investitsiya siyosatini uyg‘unlashtirish bo‘yicha amaliy tavsiyalarni ilgari suradi.
Kalit
so‘zlar:
iqtisodiy o‘sish, to‘g‘ridan
-
to‘g‘ri xorijiy investitsiyalar (TXI), savdo ochiqligi
.
UOʻK:
330.35
604-612
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ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ, ПРЯМЫЕ ИНОСТРАННЫЕ ИНВЕСТИЦИИ И ОТКРЫТОСТЬ
ТОРГОВЛИ: АНАЛИЗ ПРИЧИННО
-
СЛЕДСТВЕННОЙ СВЯЗИ ДЛЯ УЗБЕКИСТАНА
Ихтишам Ул Хак
Ташкентский государственный экономический университет
Зейнабсадат Голестан
Ташкентский государственный экономический университет
Аннотация.
В данном исследовании рассматривается причинно
-
следственная
связь между прямыми иностранными инвестициями (ПИИ), экономическим ростом и
открытостью торговли в Узбекистане за период 1997–2023 годов. На основе теста
расширенного Дики–Фуллера(ADF) установлено, что все переменные являются
интегрированными первого порядка, то есть I(1). Тест Йохансена на коинтеграцию
также подтверждает наличие по крайней мере двух долгосрочных коинтеграционных
векторов между рассматриваемыми переменными. Для анализа причинно
-
следственных
связей в краткосрочной и долгосрочной перспективе применяется модель векторной
коррекции ошибок (VECM). Полученные результаты демонстрируют двустороннюю
взаимосвязь между ПИИ, экономическим ростом и открытостью торговли в обоих
временных горизонтах. Эти выводы свидетельствуют о том, что политика
либерализации торговли и благоприятный инвестиционный климат могут
одновременно стимулировать экономический рост, приток ПИИ и развитие внешней
торговли. В статье представлены практические рекомендации по обеспечению
макроэкономической стабильности и долгосрочного развития Узбекистана посредством
согласованной политики в области торговли и инвестиций.
Ключевые слова:
экономический рост, прямые иностранные инвестиции (ПИИ),
открытость торговли.
Introduction.
The role of foreign direct investment (FDI) has significantly picked up all over the globe
post-1980s (Adamu et al., 2019; Haq et al., 2022). The enormous surge in the volume of FDI has
raised questions about its effect on economic growth in the backdrop of developed countries
(Khan et al., 2021). Minimal or no consideration has been given to such effects in developing
countries (Al-Sadig, 2013). FDI inflow to developing economies and growing dominance of
multinational corporations within host economies have led to some very serious questions
concerning the developmental effects of FDI on host countries. Are the host countries really
being developed by investing their domestic resources into multinational corporations; does
FDI as a strategy for development actually develop developing countries (Acar et al., 2003).
Ndikumana and Verick (2008) posited that domestic investment forms part of the key ways
through which such an impact of FDI inflows would be enforced on host countries.
In recent years, significant consideration has been directed towards the factors of
economic growth in economic literature, and considerable attention is given to the contribution
of FDI inflows to economic growth (for instance, Dinh et al, 2019; Yeboua, 2019; Ozili, 2025).
Nangpiire et al. (2018) examined the effects of ease of doing business on foreign direct
investment (FDI) inflows in the Sub-African nations. They stated that the ease of doing business
indicator has significant effects on FDI in Sub-Sahara African countries. The authors believed
that the ease of doing business actions of the government or policy makers need to be adjusted
to attract FDI. Contractor et al. (2020) studied the contribution of the regulatory variables in
the attraction or deterrence of FDI in 189 countries. They determined that contract
enforcement and stronger regulation of international trade attract FDI in those countries where
the mentioned indicators were strong.
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Literature review.
International trade is reported to be among the different sources of productivity and
development. The literature on growth theory indicates that trade promotes long-term growth.
Trade has thus been a source of growing economic growth in most countries as a core
component of the development path (Haq et al., 2014; Haq et al, 2025). One implication of the
vast literature confirms that nations engaged abroad are more productive than those nations
that only produce domestically. Foreign trade also maximizes the use of resources and can help
achieve faster growth that can be translated to higher factor accumulation, especially to those
economies that are connected to technology diffusion and knowledge spillovers. The countries
attempt to build their economies. FDI is a very powerful tool for these companies to make their
target a reality. Through these investments, developing countries can avail the opportunity to
gain an economic boost. FDI also brings some threats to the countries. For example, domestic
businesses can lose financial amounts as a result of the tough competition. Aside from this
factor, countries become more attuned to the changes of foreign exchange rates (Lipsey, 2002).
Aside from that, countries can be severely affected when there is an outflow of FDI which may
affect stability of the economy negatively (Herzer, 2008).
Even though the association between trade openness and economic growth
has been widely debated
in
the literature, the issue
is
still quite far
from
being solved until now.
For
instance,
empirical country-specific studies range to cross
country studies.
It
has
been
determined
that
although
cross
country
studies are experiencing problems when it comes to identifying or defining a measure of
openness, both cross country and case studies were in agreement with a very
strong positive effect of openness to trade on growth. However, it must be noted that other
studies questioned and criticized the strength of this impact (Silajdzic and Mehic, 2018;
Semančíková, 2016). Silajdzic and Mehic (2018) conducted
an extended review of empirical
evidence concerning the effect of trade openness on economic growth. The researcher reached
to conclusion that positive association between trade openness and economic growth
exists; suggesting that trade can be a significant driver for economic growth.
The purpose of this research is to examine causal relationships between FDI, trade
openness, and economic growth in Uzbekistan. Using time-series analysis, the research will
investigate how the three most critical economic indicators are interrelated with each other
over time, i.e., whether or not the increase in FDI and trade openness affects economic growth
or not. Given Uzbekistan's Central Asian geographical position and ongoing economic reforms
to open up trade and invite investment, understanding these forces is crucial for policy makers.
The findings will help account for whether or not trade-promoting and FDI-attracting policies
can induce sustainable economic growth in Uzbekistan or if economic growth itself generates
greater openness and investment. This research will contribute to the limited literature on the
economic integration of Uzbekistan and inform transition economy development policies.
Research methodology.
This study applies a quantitative time series econometric technique to examine the nexus
between FDI, trade openness, and economic growth in Uzbekistan for the period 1997
–
2023.
The sources of the data are the World Bank (2025), where FDI and trade openness are
measured as a percentage of GDP, while economic growth is measured in terms of annual
percentage. Primarily, variables were transformed to their natural logarithmic form to stabilize
variance and reduce prevailing heteroscedasticity in macroeconomic time series data. The
study also checked for stationarity of variables using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test
(Dickey & Fuller, 1979). This was necessary to determine the order of integration and
suitability for cointegration analysis. ADF test results confirmed that all variables are I(1).
Because all variables are not stationary in level and stationary in first difference, Johansen
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cointegration test (Johansen, 1988) has been employed to check the existence of long-run
equilibrium relationship between variables.
Both trace and maximum eigenvalue tests supported the presence of at least two
cointegrating vectors, which suggested long-run relationships. In order to test for both short-
run and long-run causality, the study employed a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The
VECM allows one to model the short-run dynamics while continuing to be compatible with the
long-run equilibrium relationship detected through cointegration. The model includes the
error correction term (ECT), which reflects the speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium
following a shock. The existence of statistically significant ECT coefficient confirms the
presence of long-run causality. Short-run Granger causality was tested by an F-statistic on the
differenced terms of independent variables in their lagged levels. The estimation proves two-
way causality among FDI, trade openness, and economic growth in both short run and long run,
emphasizing their interdependence. Serial correlation diagnostic tests, normality tests, and
heteroskedasticity tests were conducted to verify the robustness of the model validity. With
such rigorous methodology, results reveal that the findings are reliable, and empirical evidence
is presented to support policy recommendations for Uzbekistan's economic development.
Analysis and discussion of results.
Figure 1 illustrates the trend in FDI net inflows (% of GDP). FDI inflows were low, usually
less than 1.5% of GDP, during the period 1997 to the early 2000s. A sharp surge, however, began
in 2007 and peaked in 2010 at around 3.5%. This indicates higher confidence among investors,
perhaps due to economic reforms and liberalization efforts. Post-2011, FDI flows were
characterized by volatility, with a sharp decline in 2012 and 2013, followed by some
improvement. The largest decline was in 2018, but soon FDI again recovered and reached
another peak in 2019. After pandemic-induced setbacks in 2020, flows again recovered but
declined in 2023, indicating persistent global uncertainties or domestic investment climate
issues. Figure 2 presents the yearly percentage growth of GDP, indicating a high economic
performance from 2003 to 2011, at an over 7% annual rate that reached a peak of nearly 10%
in 2007. This coincides with a period of increased trade and investment activities. Since 2012,
however, growth has become slower at about 5
–
7%, which indicates an economy entering into
a mature phase and perhaps structurally transforming. The most radical shift occurred in 2020,
when growth plummeted as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet a resurgence of
strength then followed in 2021, in tandem with global economic revival, although growth
subsequently modestly declined in subsequent years.
Figure 1: Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP)
Source:
World Bank (2025).
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP)
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608
Figure 2: GDP growth (annual %)
Source:
World Bank (2025).
Figure 3 is Trade (% of GDP), which is an indicator for openness to trade. Trade flourished
in the early 2000s and was over 80% of GDP in 2008. This indicates that Uzbekistan made an
effort to integrate more into the international economy. But from 2009, trade openness kept
declining to hit a historic low of less than 30% in 2016, likely due to protectionist policies and
import substitution policies. Trade openness began to increase again from 2017, indicating that
the policy had since then been aligned with liberalization and outward orientation. Trade as a
share of GDP had stabilized at around 65% by 2023. In general, Uzbekistan's macroeconomic
performance exhibits cycles of openness and inward orientation. Rapid GDP growth and FDI
inflows are found to coincide with phases of increased trade, reflecting the positive impact of
globalization and liberalization. Yet, short-term declines reflect either external shock or
internal policy reversals, suggesting the requirement for steady, investor-friendly policies to
sustain economic performance in the long run.
Figure 3: Trade (% of GDP)
Source:
World Bank (2025).
ADF test results validate that the variables lnFDI, lnGDP, and lnTRADE are non-stationary
in their levels because their t-statistics (-2.13, -1.89, and -2.00) are all larger than the 5% critical
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
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value of -2.95. However, after first differencing, all the variables are stationary because their t-
statistics (-5.84, -4.96, and -5.45) are well below the critical value. Therefore, each series is
integrated of order one, I(1), i.e., it is stationary only after having been differenced once. Table
1 indicates ADF test results. Johansen cointegration test results indicate the presence of long-
run relations among the variables.
According to the null hypothesis of no cointegration (r = 0), trace statistic value (45.72) is
greater than the 5% critical value (29.79) and max-eigenvalue statistic value (24.38) is greater
than the corresponding critical value (21.13), which on rejection of the null hypothesis
indicates at least one cointegrating vector. Correspondingly, for the null hypothesis of there
being no more than one cointegrating vector (r ≤ 1), both the trace (21.34) and max
-eigenvalue
(14.49) statistics are larger than their respective critical values (15.49 and 14.26), indicating a
second cointegrating relationship. Finally, for r ≤ 2, again statistics are above critical values,
confirming a third cointegration. In conclusion, the results are strongly in favor of that the
variables are cointegrated, implying long-run stable equilibrium relationships. Table 2 presents
Johansen cointegration test results.
Table 1
.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Results
Variable Level t-Statistic 1st Diff. t-Statistic Critical Value (5%) Order of Integration
lnFDI
-2.13
-5.84
-2.95
I(1)
lnGDP
-1.89
-4.96
-2.95
I(1)
lnTRADE
-2.00
-5.45
-2.95
I(1)
Table 2
.
Johansen Test Results
Null
Hypothesis
Trace
Statistic
5% Critical
Value
Max-Eigen
Statistic
5% Critical
Value
Cointegration
r = 0
45.72
29.79
24.38
21.13
Yes
r ≤ 1
21.34
15.49
14.49
14.26
Yes
r ≤ 2
6.85
3.84
6.85
3.84
Yes
Table 3 presents the results of a causality test investigating the long-run relationships
among changes in foreign direct investment (
Δ
lnFDI), gross domestic product (
Δ
lnGDP), and
trade (
Δ
lnTRADE). The statistics indicate significant causality running in multiple directions
among these variables, along with evidence of long-run equilibrium relationships.
The results show strong evidence that changes in economic growth and trade openness
cause changes in foreign direct investment. Specifically, the causality from
Δ
lnGDP to
Δ
lnFDI is
supported by a test statistic of 9.45, and from
Δ
lnTRADE to
Δ
lnFDI by 6.34. Additionally, the
negative long-run t-statistic of -3.45 for
Δ
lnFDI confirms the presence of a long-run
cointegrating relationship. This finding suggests that improvements in GDP and trade openness
significantly attract FDI inflows over time. Such results are consistent with Borensztein, De
Gregorio, and Lee (1998), who emphasize that economic growth prospects and trade openness
are crucial determinants for attracting foreign direct investment.
Conversely, the causality from
Δ
lnFDI and
Δ
lnTRADE to
Δ
lnGDP is also strongly
supported, with statistics of 8.11 and 7.44 respectively. The long-run t-statistic of -2.87 further
supports the existence of a stable long-term relationship between GDP and its determinants.
This outcome aligns with the conclusions of Alfaro et al. (2004), who found that foreign direct
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investment positively affects economic growth, especially in countries with well-developed
financial markets. Moreover, the effect of trade openness on GDP growth concurs with Frankel
and Romer (1999), who demonstrated that trade promotes higher income levels by facilitating
specialization and the diffusion of technology.
Furthermore, the causality from
Δ
lnFDI and
Δ
lnGDP to
Δ
lnTRADE is indicated by test
statistics of 5.91 and 6.87, respectively, along with a long-run t-statistic of -2.45 confirming the
long-run causal link. This suggests that inflows of foreign direct investment and economic
growth contribute to the expansion of trade activities. The mechanism behind this may be the
integration of the domestic economy into global value chains, facilitated by FDI. This
interpretation supports Blonigen’s (2005) argument that f
oreign direct investment can
enhance trade by linking domestic firms with international markets. Additionally, the causal
effect of GDP on trade growth is consistent with the gravity model of trade, which posits that
larger economies tend to engage in more trade. In summary, the presence of bidirectional
causality in certain relationships indicates a high degree of interdependence among foreign
direct investment, economic growth, and trade. These factors appear to reinforce one another
over time, contributing to a virtuous cycle of economic integration and development. The
significant negative long-run t-statistics for all variables further confirm that these
relationships are stable in the long term, which is consistent with cointegration theory. The
findings emphasize the importance of policies that simultaneously promote trade openness,
attract foreign investment, and support economic growth to achieve sustained development.
Comparing these results to prior research, the findings align closely with the established
literature. Borensztein, De Gregorio, and Lee (1998) highlighted that FDI inflows are attracted
by growth prospects and trade openness, which matches the causality from GDP and trade to
FDI found here. Alfaro et al. (2004) provided evidence that FDI positively influences economic
growth, especially where financial markets are developed, which supports the causality from
FDI to GDP. Similarly, Frankel and Romer (1999) demonstrated the role of trade openness in
driving economic growth, consistent with the results showing causality from trade to GDP.
Finally, Blonigen (2005) emphasized the role of FDI in facilitating trade, a conclusion supported
by the causality from FDI to trade identified in this analysis.
Table 3
.
Causality Results
Dependent
Variable
ΔlnFDI
ΔlnGDP
ΔlnTRADE
t-Statistic (Long-
run)
Long-run
Causality
ΔlnFDI
--
9.45
6.34
-3.45
Yes
ΔlnGDP
8.11
--
7.44
-2.87
Yes
ΔlnTRADE
5.91
6.87
--
-2.45
Yes
Conclusion and suggestions.
This study examined the dynamic relationship between FDI, trade openness, and
economic growth in Uzbekistan using yearly time series data spanning from 1997 to 2023.
Relying on a comprehensive econometric exercise including the ADF test, Johansen
cointegration approach, and VECM, the outcomes provide strong empirical evidence of both
short-run and long-run interactions among the three variables.
ADF test results confirmed that variables are not stationary at levels but become
stationary once first differenced, indicating the presence of order one integration, I(1).
Johansen cointegration test established the existence of a minimum of two long-run
relationships of equilibrium among FDI, trade openness, and economic growth. Such a long-run
relationship implies these macro variables tend to move together over time and react to
structural change and policy change as a group.
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The VECM-based causality test detected bidirectional causality between variables in the
short run and the long run. In other words, economic growth and trade openness contributed
to FDI inflows, whereas FDI contributed to economic growth and trade expansion. The large
and negative error correction terms also reinforced the fact that long-run causality existed, as
it indicated that any short-run disequilibrium between the variables will get corrected in the
long run and ultimately converge towards a stable equilibrium.
These findings have important implications for policy. The interconnectedness of trade,
FDI, and growth suggests that narrowly directed or unidimensional policies will be weaker than
comprehensive ones. Promoting an open trading regime can bring more FDI inflows and
improve economic growth. Promoting a better investment environment can lead to greater
foreign investment, the source of productivity, technology transfer, and competitiveness in
exports. In the context of Uzbekistan, ongoing reforms in regulatory openness, infrastructure,
and regional trade integration are likely to have compounding effects in these areas. In
conclusion, the aforementioned research confirms that economic growth, trade openness, and
FDI are not only reinforcing but also interdependent. The Uzbekistan policymakers have to
adopt a holistic development strategy that enhances trade liberalization, foreign investment
promotion, as well as sustainable economic growth simultaneously. This will support the
country's macroeconomic foundation and pave the way for its transformation into a diversified
and strong economy.
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