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METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF DIGITALIZATION AND ECONOMETRIC MODELING
OF COMMERCIAL BANKING ACTIVITIES
assoc. prof.
Rakhimberdiev Kuvonchbek
Tashkent State University of Economics
ORCID: 0000-0003-2290-5786
Abstract.
This article highlights the importance of introducing digital technologies and
blockchain systems in increasing the efficiency of innovative processes in the activities of
commercial banks and ensuring competitiveness. The role of modern information technologies, in
particular blockchain platforms, in the process of digitizing the bank lending system, their
functional capabilities, level of security and efficiency of use are analyzed. The article also details
the trends in the digitalization of the economy, the spread of mobile and Internet services, the
share of the ICT sector in GDP, and the development of e-commerce. The need to use economic and
mathematical (econometric) models in assessing and forecasting economic processes is
substantiated.
Keywords:
commercial banks, digital transformation, innovative activity, blockchain
technology, digitization of credit policy, fintech, econometric modeling, digital economy.
TIJORAT BANKLARI FAOLIYATINI RAQAMLASHTIRISH VA EKONOMETRIK
MODELLASHTIRISHNING METODOLOGIK ASOSLARI
dots.
Rahimberdiev Quvonchbek
Toshkent davlat iqtisodiyot universiteti
Annotatsiya.
Ushbu maqolada tijorat banklari faoliyatida innovatsion jarayonlarning
samaradorligini oshirish va raqobatbardoshlikni ta’minlashda raqamli texnologiyalar va
blockchain tizimlarini joriy etishning ahamiyati yoritilgan. Bank kreditlash tizimini
raqamlashtirish jarayonida zamonaviy axborot texnologiyalarining, xususan, blokcheyn
platformalarining roli, ularning funksional imkoniyatlari, xavfsizlik darajasi va foydalanish
samaradorligi tahlil qilingan. Shuningdek, maqolada iqtisodiyotni raqamlashtirish
tendensiyalari, mobil va internet xizmatlarining kengayishi, AKT sektorining YaIMdagi ulushi va
elektron savdo rivojlanishi batafsil yoritilgan. Iqtisodiy jarayonlarni baholash va prognoz qilishda
iqtisodiy-matematik (ekonometrik) modellardan foydalanish zarurligi asoslab berilgan.
Kalit so‘zlar:
tijorat banklari, raqamli transformatsiya, innovatsion faoliyat, blockchain
texnologiyasi, kredit siyosati raqamlashtirilishi, fintex, ekonometrik modellashtirish, raqamli
iqtisodiyot.
UOʻK:
336.71
621-629
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МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ОСНОВЫ ЦИФРОВИЗАЦИИ И ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКОЕ
МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ КОММЕРЧЕСКИХ БАНКОВ
доц.
Рахимбердиев Кувончбек
Ташкентский государственный экономический университет
Аннотация.
В статье подчеркивается важность внедрения цифровых технологий
и блокчейн
-
систем в повышении эффективности инновационных процессов в
деятельности коммерческих банков
и
обеспечении конкурентоспособности.
Анализируется роль современных информационных технологий, в частности блокчейн
-
платформ, в процессе цифровизации системы банковского кредитования, их
функциональные возможности, уровень безопасности и эффективность использования.
В статье также подробно рассматриваются тенденции цифровизации экономики,
распространение мобильных и интернет
-
сервисов, доля сектора ИКТ в ВВП, развитие
электронной коммерции. Обосновывается необходимость использования экономико
-
математических (эконометрических) моделей при оценке и прогнозировании
экономических процессов.
Ключевые слова
:
коммерческие банки, цифровая трансформация, инновационная
деятельность, блокчейн
-
технологии, цифровизация кредитной политики, финтех,
эконометрическое моделирование, цифровая экономика.
Introduction.
In accordance with the rapidly changing operating conditions, any bank is forced to
change itself, becoming a full-fledged participant in the market, initiating intra-organizational
innovation processes. Of course, these processes should not occur spontaneously - they should
be systematically carried out within the framework of a developed innovation strategy, which
is part of the bank's overall development strategy. Currently, one of the main factors of
successful banking is a policy of constant innovation. This conclusion follows from a number of
assumptions characterizing the current state of the economy. First, the bank's relationship with
clients is based on the principles of partnership. This means, in particular, that banks constantly
take care not only of preserving, but also of increasing the capital of their clients, offering new
services that contribute to the expansion of financial and economic activities, reducing costs,
developing business activity and increasing its profitability.
Innovations are a very important factor in the stability of the functioning of banks and
ensure their economic growth. The choice of any strategy, like innovation, always involves the
creation of a separate organizational and economic mechanism that ensures its
implementation. Its direction, features of operation and structural structure largely depend on
the specifics of the innovation processes, which are determined by the typology of innovations
that prevail in the process of the bank's innovative activity.
Effective management and analysis of innovative activities in commercial banks requires
an accurate and scientifically based assessment of the dynamics of economic processes. In this
case, many factors, such as the bank's innovation strategy, the level of technological
development, and improving the quality of customer service, are interconnected and complex.
Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a systematic analysis using econometric modeling to
assess and optimize innovative processes in the banking sector.
The need for econometric modeling in the development of the production process of
innovative products in commercial banks is reflected in the following:
▪
Developing reasonable forecasts for the future financial indicators, liquidity levels, and
risk levels of commercial banks;
▪
Developing recommendations for the effective management of commercial banks,
resource allocation, and optimization of credit policy;
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III SON. 2025
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▪
Developing risk models to assess the risk of customer default, financial losses, and the
impact of market uncertainties on bank activities;
Literature review.
Several regulatory legal documents and scientific approaches to improving the lending
process in commercial banks have been cited in the scientific literature. In particular, according
to the legal framework of the banking system of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in accordance with
the Regulation “On Requirements for the Credit Policy of Commercial Banks”: “The credit policy
of a bank is a set of measures and methods adopted by the bank’s management in managing the
risk arising from the lending process, as wel
l as the bank’s management and employees in order
to effectively manage the credit portfolio. is a document that provides guidance on
management. The credit policy must clearly indicate and define the goals of the bank's credit
activities. "The description of the credit policy is determined depending on the size of the credit
portfolio and the economy of the region in which the bank operates. It is noted that when
forming a credit strategy and implementing a credit policy, the bank must take these factors
into account.
Also, in a number of economic scientific research works, there are different opinions on
describing the economic essence of a bank with state participation. That is, a bank with state
participation: According to Azriliyan, it is understood as a bank that is partially or fully owned
by the national capital and operates from its interests. According to Babayev, banks in which
the country participates as a shareholder, according to Beloglazova, the authorized capital of
which is fully or partially owned by the state A large financial institution that is affiliated with
and supported by the country in various ways. Commercial banks are described as financial
institutions that aim to make a profit in exchange for taking advantage of the country's
privileges in certain areas. The use of the complete model of the banking system developed by
Egorova and Smulov in modeling the optimal management of the lending process serves as the
basis for solving this problem.
Research metodology.
In the current global economic environment, the use of accurate and scientifically based
analytical methods for the effective organization and strategic management of commercial
banks is becoming increasingly important. The fact that banking is a multifactorial, dynamic
and sensitive system to external influences requires the introduction of scientifically based
economic and mathematical models, i.e. econometric modeling, in assessing its effectiveness
and sustainability, not limited to simple analytical methods.
Econometric modeling of commercial banks' activities primarily allows for an accurate
and objective assessment of the banks financial stability, liquidity level, loan portfolio quality,
customer base growth, and innovative activity results. Such models identify the relationships
between factors affecting the activities of banks, analyze the impact of internal and external
shocks, and develop sound forecasts for future development. In the econometric analysis of
economic processes, it is necessary to generate statistical data, which is based on official bank
reports, central bank data, and financial market statistics. The use of time series and panel data
models is important in analyzing the dynamics of banking activities. At the stage of selecting
the model type and technical methods, methods such as multivariate regression models, vector
autoregression (VAR), vector error correction models (VECM), or logit and probit models are
used. The method of mean squares (OLS), generalized mean squares (GLS), and likelihood
methods (MLE) are used to estimate the model parameters. Diagnostic tests such as
multicollinearity (VIF), heteroskedasticity (Breusch-Pagan test), and autocorrelation (Durbin-
Watson test) are also performed to ensure the reliability and adequacy of the model.
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Analysis and discussion of results.
Currently, the consistent introduction of digital technologies into economic and social
spheres around the world is having a strong impact, first of all, on the financial market.
Therefore, the world economy is increasingly undergoing a process of international digital
transformation. This technological transformation process is called digitization. The main goal
of implementing the digitization process is to achieve high economic efficiency as a result of
providing customers with modern, high-quality and safe financial services. To this end, the
banking system in the Republic of Uzbekistan is being improved on the basis of modern digital
technologies to a high-quality level that meets the technological requirements of our national
digital economy.
Digital transformation contributes to the evolutionary development of business models,
the introduction of modern conceptual solutions in the banking system, from the improvement
of Internet banking technologies to the maximum transformation of traditional monetary and
credit operations. The introduction of digital innovative technologies into banks and financial
institutions is the main mechanism for ensuring sustainable and long-term growth in their
effective activities. Also, the process of digitization is one of the modern strategic priorities of
banking and lending technologies in the world economy.
Therefore, the application of modern digital technologies to bank lending is the basis for
providing high-quality and safe lending services. However, the lack of a clear methodology and
concepts for implementing the digitization process of commercial banks' lending sectors can
lead to a decrease in the efficiency and slowdown of the digitization process. For this reason,
we need to pay attention to the following issues in the digitization of economic processes.
▪
Research into the fundamental theoretical foundations of the digitization process of
commercial banks;
▪
Develop theoretical methodological foundations for the classification, clustering and use
of scientific directions, theories, concepts, models and methods necessary for the digitalization
of the lending system of commercial banks;
▪
Identify effective information technology tools necessary for the digitalization of the
economic process based on scientific methodology. That is, to fully cover this process, identify
software environments that fully implement its parameters and calculation processes, cluster
them, and study methodological conceptual foundations for them;
▪
Develop conceptual models for the identification and use of effective information
security tools for the implementation of secure financial services in commercial banks;
▪
Analyze modern financial technologies used to improve the efficiency of the lending
process of commercial banks, and form methodological foundations for their implementation;
From the above issues, it can be understood that it is necessary to study the theoretical
and methodological foundations for the implementation of the process of effective
digitalization of the activities of commercial banks.
Therefore, this paragraph aims to study the theoretical, methodological and conceptual
foundations necessary for the digitalization of commercial banks. To achieve this goal, it is
necessary to understand the essence of the digitalization process and study the factors affecting
it. The process of introducing innovative technologies and digitization in the banking and
financial sectors has been widely studied by banks, financial institutions and researchers for
many years and has led to significant innovative results. Therefore, it is necessary to study the
main factors and developments in improving the lending systems of commercial banks and
introducing digital technologies. The evolution of the digitization and introduction of
innovative technologies in the commercial banking sector is presented in the table below
(Table 1).
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Table 1.
The evolution of digitalization of banking systems
Developmental
periods
Development stage
Developmental stage classification
I-period
Production and
introduction of plastic
cards of commercial
banks
Creates opportunities for the development of retail
banking services and the improvement of the
financial sector
II-period
Development and
introduction of new
technologies for using
plastic cards of
commercial banks and
ATMs
It allows customers to use banking services
remotely. This allows banking organizations to use
these banking services in areas outside of their
borders.
III-period
The emergence of
electronic trading
platforms, stock
exchanges (NASDAQ)
The introduction of the Internet and modern
network technologies has contributed to the
development of financial markets and stock
exchanges. This has created the opportunity for
banks and financial institutions to expand their
remote services.
IV-period
Benefits and
implementation of
Fintech technologies
Fintech (Financial technology) is an institution that
introduces modern technologies to improve the
financial sector and develops new financial
technologies. The development of Fintech financial
technologies has created opportunities for the
emergence of projects that compete with traditional
banking services and an increase in the volume of
bank financial transactions.
V-period
Improving financial
sector digitalization
systems
Widespread introduction of internet technologies
and digital innovations in the banking and financial
sectors
VI-period
Introduction of
blockchain technology
The creation and implementation of
cryptocurrencies, crypto exchanges, and crypto
lending technologies based on blockchain
technology to improve the financial sector
In particular, if we look at the scientific research works of such world scientists as Chen
and Liao, Antonopoulos, Thomas, Golovenchik, Yegorova, Smulov, Koroleva, Bukharin, we can
see the approaches of various researchers to understanding the essence of digitization and
innovation. Summarizing the studied approaches, it can be seen that the digitization of
commercial banks' lending systems is inextricably linked to the following scientific areas
(Table 2).
In the digitalization of the financial sector, integration between the scientific fields listed
in Table 2 is of great importance. It is necessary to study the issues, problems, methods and
algorithms necessary for the implementation of the economic digitalization process of these
scientific areas. The results of the research can be used to develop theoretical methodologies
and concepts for the development of the digital economy. A conceptual model for using models
and methods of scientific fields in improving the digital economy. The process of digitizing the
economy cannot be implemented without using the theoretical and practical achievements of
mathematics, applied mathematics and computer science. Therefore, scientific research is
being conducted by world scientists to improve the digitization process. From these research
works, it can be understood that the role of not only economic scientific fields, but also
mathematical sciences is invaluable in the digital economy.
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Table 2.
Scientific fields that are inextricably linked to the digitalization of economic sectors
Scientific fields
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Applied
mathematics
Mathematical
modeling of
economic processes
Identifying errors in
economic and mathematical
models
Evaluation of
economic-
mathematical models
Information
Technology
(Informatics)
Development of
financial blockchain
platform
architecture and
creation of
blockchain models
Identify and program
blockchain model
programming tools
Identify the technical
tools required to
implement blockchain
software tools
Information
Security
(Cryptography and
Cryptanalysis))
Studying methods
for ensuring
information security
in financial software
Selecting, modifying, and
creating new cryptographic
methods that are resistant
to cryptography
Cryptanalysis of
existing cryptographic
algorithms,
modifications, and new
methods using
cryptanalysis
techniques
Statistics
Collecting,
analyzing, and
generalizing units of
a set using special
methods
Statistical inference is the
evaluation of predictions
about the population and
some other generalizations
based on the information
that makes up the sample.
Determining the level
of confidence, i.e. the
degree of uncertainty
associated with a
statistical conclusion
Econometrics
Identifying factors
influencing the
digitalization of
financial processes
Conducting econometric
modeling and
computational experiments
Econometric model
evaluation, economic
analysis
Nowadays, information technologies are becoming an integral part of most sectors of
society and people's lifestyles, which also affects the economic relations between them. In
particular, according to the Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the indicators
of the provision of mobile communication devices to the population of our country were 63.4
units per 100 permanent residents in 2013, while this indicator was 89.7 units according to
2022 data (Table 3). That is, over the past ten years, the provision of mobile communication
devices to the population of our republic has increased by almost 29.31 percent (Figure 4).
Figure 1. Indicators of mobile communication
coverage of the population of the Republic of
Uzbekistan (per 100 permanent population
units)
Figure 2. Internet service coverage
indicators for the population of the
Republic of Uzbekistan (per 100
permanent population units)
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From these indicators, it should be understood that 89.7 percent of the population of our
country uses mobile devices. To determine their indicators of use of mobile financial services,
it is first necessary to study the level of provision of this population with Internet services. The
level of provision of the population of the Republic of Uzbekistan with Internet services is
presented below (Table 3).
Table 3.
Indicators of provision of mobile communication and Internet services to the
population of the Republic of Uzbekistan, (per 100 permanent population units)
Years
Indicators of the population's access to mobile
communication devices
Indicators of population coverage
of Internet services
2013
63,4
21,8
2014
64,2
23,6
2015
66
26,6
2016
66,8
30,2
2017
69,5
34,5
2018
66,6
40,4
2019
71
48,8
2020
75,9
58,4
2021
83,1
65,8
2022
89,7
75
According to the data presented in Table 3, the rate of provision of Internet services to the
population of our country was 21.8 per 100 permanent residents in 2013, and this figure
reached 75 in 2022. Compared to 2013, in 2017 it increased by 36.8 percent, and by 2022 this
figure reached almost 72 percent. From the data presented in the table above, it can be
understood that by 2022, 75 percent of the population of our Republic will be connected to the
Internet and use the services of this technology (Figure 5). In this regard, we can see in the table
below that the increase in the number of mobile communication devices is inextricably linked
to the provision of Internet services (Table 4).
Table 4.
The dependence of mobile communication coverage on Internet service indicators.
The relationship between the level of
access to the Internet and mobile
communication devices among the
population
Indicators of population
coverage with mobile
communication devices
Indicators of the
population's access to
Internet services
Indicators of population coverage with
mobile communication devices
1
0,9573638
Indicators of the population's access to
Internet services
0,9573638
1
Table 4 shows that the correlation coefficient between the availability of mobile
communication devices and the indicators of Internet services is R=0.957363. This indicates
that the increase in mobile communication devices has a strong impact on the increase in the
efficiency of Internet services. Also, currently, the gross added value of the ICT economy and e-
commerce in the GDP of the Republic is increasing in our country (Table 5).
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Table 5.
Share of the information economy and e-commerce sector in the GDP of the Republic of
Uzbekistan (billion soums)
Information economy and e-commerce sector
ICT
production
ICT
trade
ICT
services
Content sector
and media
E-
commerce
The size of the
digital economy
2015
141,7
140,8
3 299,20
294,6
x
3876,3
2016
127,2
228
4 220,10
392,4
x
4967,7
2017
238,3
281,6
5 329,10
518,7
10,1
6377,8
2018
301,9
236,2
6 338,70
750,1
105,2
7732,1
2019
279,4
293,3
6 750,30
908,9
260
8491,9
2020
540,1
252,3
8 303,50
1 089,70
591,4
10777
2021
630,3
367,8
10 696,40
1 464,60
3 907,30
17066,4
2022
680,6
402,6
12695,5
1854,4
5425,8
20165,7
According to the data presented in Table 1.1.5, the ICT economy in our country
amounted to 141.7 billion soums in 2015, and in 2022 the ICT industry increased by almost 4.8
times and amounted to 680.6 billion soums. The value of ICT trade increased by 287.5 percent
compared to 2015, ICT services by 384.8 percent, and the media sector by 629.4 percent. Also,
the statistics for 2015 do not provide indicators of the share of e-commerce in GDP. This is
because the formation of e-commerce projects, startups and other innovative projects in our
country is at an early stage. The share of e-commerce in GDP amounted to 10.1 billion soums
by 2017, and this indicator increased by 542.5 times in 2022. At the same time, the share of e-
commerce in GDP in our country is 0.6 percent.
We can model the impact of the digitization of the banking systems of the Republic of
Uzbekistan on the size of the digital economy using multivariate linear econometric modeling
as follows.
1
2
3
4
5
ˆ
439.4 5.33
6.10
0.36
2.27
0.92
Y
X
X
X
X
X
=
+
+
+
+
+
(1)
where,
Y
- The size of the digital economy,
1
X
- ICT production,
2
X
- ICT trade,
3
X
- ICT
services,
4
X
- Content sector and media,
5
X
- E-commerce.
In order to identify the factors affecting the growth of the digital economy in Uzbekistan
and assess the level of their impact, a correlation and regression analysis was conducted based
on data for the period 2015
–2022. In this analysis, the “volume of the digital economy” (Y) was
used as the independent variables, and the indicators of ICT production (X₁), ICT trade (X₂), ICT
services (X₃), content and media (X₄) and e
-
commerce (X₅) were taken. The results of the
analysis show that the volume of the digital economy is highly correlated with all factors. In
particular, the correlation coefficient with the indicators of ICT services and e-commerce is
higher than 0.95, indicating that they are decisive factors in the development of the digital
economy.
The model results indicate that ICT trade and e-commerce sectors have the greatest
impact on the size of the digital economy. T-statistics and p-value analyses for e-commerce
confirmed that this variable is statistically significant
(𝑝 < 0.05)
. Other factors also have a
positive effect, but due to the limited sample size, not all of them were statistically significant.
The coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.999, which means that the model can explain 99.9
percent of the real data. This indicates that the model is of high quality and that the analyzed
factors are the main drivers of the growth of the digital economy. The model was also found to
be statistically significant according to the overall F-statistic
(𝑝 < 0.01).
Residual analysis shows that there are no signs of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity,
which ensures the stability and reliability of the model.
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Conclusion and suggestions.
In conclusion, the key factors in ensuring the growth of the digital economy in Uzbekistan,
especially in the areas of ICT services, e-commerce and content media, are the following. Also,
attracting investment to the private sector, improving the processes of lending and digitization
of financial services will provide an opportunity to further develop the digital economy and
increase its share in GDP.
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