SELECTION OF ALTERNATIVES, EXPERT
ASSESSMENT AND BIDDING CRITERIA
Mirzaakhmedova Aziza Xusnitdinovna
(a)
, Akbarova Nigora
Ruxiddinovna
(a)
sanoat instituti
Qabul qilingan: 02.04.2024
Qayta qabul : 15.04.2024
Saytda mavjud : 1.05.2024
Muallif (lar)
A.H.Mirzaakhmedova
N.R.Akbarova
Muallif bilan aloqa
https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6651-2429
mu1234@gmail.
Muallif. A.H.Mirzaakhmedova
va boshqalar
UNIVERSAL xalqaro ilmiy jurnal
https://universaljurnal.uz/index.php/jurnal
Maxfiylik bayonoti
Materialni istalgan vosita yoki formatda nusxalash va
qayta tarqatish hamda maqoladan
foydalanish mumkin.
ABSTRACT:
An approach to predicting the number of
scientific personnel is proposed based on
the
regression
model
and
expert
assessment
methods
that
give
an
opportunity to take into account the
intensity of the development of the
scientific and technical potential of the
Republic. It is necessary to process and
analyze examination data, draw up
priority methods of future probabilities of
Science and technology based on expert
assessment, as well as evaluate them and
prepare proposals.
KEY WORDS:
probability
distribution,
dynamics,
decision
making,
criteria,
expert
assessment, multifactorial, alternatives,
collection, highly qualified personnel,
model, acceptable loading.
Universal International Scientific Journal
2024, 1(1)
Universal Xalqaro Ilmiy Jurnal
Jurnalning bosh sahifasi:
https://universaljurnal.uz
Universal International Scientific Journal
2024, 1(1)
INTRODUCTION
.
Currently, the problems of clarity and
decision-making, the activities of the institution are
also of great importance. The global efficiency
criterion that allows to evaluate this or that solution
of a given problem is not clearly known. Serious
difficulties in forming a general factor of efficiency
arise not only due to the multifactorial nature, but
also due to the different quality and variety of
economic and social factors, the dynamics and
consequences of the included measures. Among the
tasks that arise, especially in the decision-making
process, to be precise, it is more convenient to apply
certain rules of decision-making (decision-making
criteria) that establish an alternative relationship
between individual alternatives from the set of
available alternatives and the application of utility
theory in a certain sense. [1,2].
METHODS.
Wald criterion. Alternatives are evaluated
from the pessimistic data of k-possible states.
Comparing two alternatives a
i
, a
j
with certain utility
functions u
ik
, u
jk,
the Wald criterion for all cases is
written as follows:
(1.1)
where R is a binary relation of weak priority ("not
worse than").
Another criterion that is opposite to the
Hurwitz criterion (1.1) and is more "optimistic" is
the maximax criterion:
(1.2)
To some extent, the Hurwitz criterion
is a generalization of (1.1) and (1.2):
(1.3)
At
=1 (1.3) Hurwitz criterion (1.1)
goes to
=0 (1.2).
The coefficient is selected depending
on the nature of the problem. It "adjusts" to
the "preparation variable", the risk, by
selecting certain (1.3) criteria. The simplest
problems that allow the optimal choice of
are considered. But, in general, there is no
unified state.
The Savidge criterion represents the
"regret" between the true and the more
efficient (h-choice) choice:
(1.4)
The expressions in parentheses in (1.4)
are the sequence limits of the false choice. An
acceptable solution is found under the
condition of minimum "regret".
Laplace and Bayes criterion. In the
Laplace criterion, all possible states of the
alternatives are equally likely (state of
complete certainty):
Universal International Scientific Journal
2024, 1(1)
(1.5)
The Bayes criterion is a generalization of
(1.5) and is characteristic of decision-making
situations involving risk in which the distribution of
probabilities for different states (stochastic state) is
known. In this case, the following formula is
appropriate:
(1.6)
where p
k
is the probability of occurrence of state
k.
Thus, according to the criterion (1.6), the
alternative with the maximum mathematical
expectation is chosen.
Hodges-Lehman criterion. This criterion,
similar to the Hurwitz criterion (1.3), constitutes a
union of the two above-mentioned (1.5), (1.1),
precisely speaking:
(1.7)
where
Criterion (1.7) is used when there is
insufficient information about the law of probability
distribution, but there is information about the
frequency of occurrence of a certain state depending
on the location of the coefficient .
Studying the various factors of decision-
making problems directly leads to its deeper
understanding and solution. In addition, the rational
use of formal and informal methods, the use of
human skills and emotions, the "good"
relationship between the employees of the
organization, external experts and researchers
- all this is the study and analysis of the process
of identifying decision-making problems in
organizational systems, the perspective of
employees' activities. creates conditions for
increasing plans and efficiency. [3]. The
development of various specializations in the
fields of science "Assessment of the relative
importance" for different questions can have
indicators that characterize the following:
- the general opinion of a group of
experts on the importance of the development
of various specialties;
- the level of agreement of experts;
- statistical indicators of the consensus
index of expert opinion;
- the experts' generalized opinions on
each question posed to them.
A rational choice of alternatives. It
shows the models of 3 methodological
solutions to the problem of choosing
alternatives in an uncertain environment [4].
The
first
model
assumes
the
availability of current information in the form
of non-deterministic relations (a.n.m) of
),
y
,
x
(
R
preferences given in a set of U
alternatives. The rational choice of
)
,
(
.
max
arg
*
y
x
x
y
x
alternatives takes
place in the special class of X
ND-
Orlovsky
Universal International Scientific Journal
2024, 1(1)
non-priority alternatives, whose relevance function
(t.f)
)).
x
,
y
(
)
y
,
x
(
,
0
(
max
)
y
,
x
(
),
y
,
x
(
max
1
)
x
(
S
S
S
R
R
R
R
y
X
Within the framework of this model, a method of
solving the issues of choosing educational
methodological manuals is provided.
In the second model, the relative weights of
R
i
a.n.m are given by the corresponding
coefficients
i
. This allows to select alternatives
from
ND
based on the sum of current
relations in the form of the sum of t.f.:
Q
1
(1,2)=min (1; 1; 1; 1; 1)=0
etc. As a result, we find the following.
Step 2. We find Q
1
ND
Step 2.1. The inverse matrix Q
1
-1
.
is formed
Step 2.2
Calculate Q
1
0
:
.
Q
Q
X
;
R
...
R
Q
);
y
,
x
(
)
y
,
x
(
2
1
m
m
1
1
R
m
1
i
i
Q
i
2
In the third model, the information about the relative
weights of the factors is non-deterministic and is
defined in the set of factors R
. .
={
i
}.
Decision-making takes place in two stages. At the
first stage, the resulting R
p
a.n.ms are constructed in
the following form [5,6].
)).
,
(
),
(x
),
(x
min(
sup
)
x
,
x
(
j
i
R
l
R
k
R
,
l
x
R
j
i
j
i
p
In the second step, it is the selection of
alternatives when there is only one R
p
a.n.m:
)).
x
,
x
(
),
x
(
min(
)
x
(
max
arg
x
p
.
p
R
R
X
x
*
RESULTS.
The given model is also used in accepting the issue
of choosing alternatives characterized by a single
aggregate indicator, taking into account the opinion
of several experts. the number of organizations
conducting scientific research and production;
1. Expenses for scientific and technical work
by type of organizations;
2. Provision by the fund;
3. Development of scientific and
technical products;
Non-fixed information R
1
, R
2
, R
3
, R
4
, R
5
and
R.
Step 1. Finding the elements of the matrix Q
1
:
Q
1
(1,1)=min (1; 1; 1; 1; 1)=1
0
)
0
,
0
max(
)
0
0
,
0
max(
)
2
,
1
(
Q
0
)
0
,
0
max(
)
1
1
,
0
max(
)
1
,
1
(
Q
0
1
0
1
etc. As a result, we get the following
information.
Step 2.3. We find Q
1
ND
:
02
,
0
)
98
,
0
;
0
;
0
;
40
,
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
max(
1
)
(
;
1
)
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
max(
1
)
(
;
1
)
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
;
0
max(
1
)
(
3
1
2
1
1
1
x
Q
x
Q
x
Q
etc. ie
;
1
;
02
,
0
;
01
,
0
;
11
,
0
;
07
,
0
;
01
,
0
;
11
,
0
;
1
,
0
;
43
,
0
;
01
,
0
;
01
,
0
;
02
,
0
;
1
;
1
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
DISCUSSION.
1.
Thus, we determined that it is possible
to choose the best environment from the 14
proposed regions by sorting through all the
regions.
Universal International Scientific Journal
2024, 1(1)
2.
The concept of "resource-competency
matching" is a key structural element of the entire
future logic of seeing the problem-oriented
assessment of the demand for highly skilled
personnel. The purpose of developing the
methodological apparatus is to determine the object
and problem-oriented assessment tool. The
indicators used by highly qualified employees and
their measurement methods, the goals of scientific
and technical problems are defined, and a model
that processes the evaluation results is developed.
In this approach, the main task is to study whether
this or that - set of scientific goals corresponds to
this or that - set of highly qualified personnel.
3.
A tool for problem-based assessment is the
measurement of given adaptation. Measurements
of this type are carried out within the limits of
processes formed by the use of mathematical
apparatus and on the basis of heuristic processes.
CONCLUSION.
1. An approach to predicting the number of
scientific staff is proposed based on the regression
model and expert assessment methods that allow
taking into account the speed of the development
of the scientific and technical potential of the
republic.
2. A simulation system was developed to
systematically study the demand for highly
qualified personnel, which helps to implement a
targeted programmatic approach in the Republic, to
optimally load the Republic ITI and to identify
specialties that can be trained only by central ITIs.
3. A criterion for assessing the demand for
highly qualified personnel has been
developed and a selection of available factors
(criteria) has been made.
4. Expert evaluation methods and decision-
making criteria have been developed in
systematic studies of the demand for highly
qualified personnel.
Further prospects in the study.
The development of these methods, in
contrast to previous published work, is based
on a series of interconnected problems, i.e.,
forecasting and evaluation of optimal R&D
activities, decision making, simulation
modeling, software tools, mathematical
models, and modern information technology
methods in the context of the market
mechanism. led to the solution by grading
methods. In particular, despite its simplicity,
the information supply of a systematic study
of the requirements for highly qualified
personnel has advantages in a number of
cases. It is these features that have ensured
their widespread use in solving practical
problems in the management and processing
of information on systematic analysis,
training of personnel.
Taking into account the new dynamics in the
study of strategic priorities in science
naturally leads to a revision of the priorities
of science. Achieving the advanced aspects of
the science requires that the staff potential of
the science comply with modern
requirements, conducting systematic research
Universal International Scientific Journal
2024, 1(1)
on the study of the demand for highly qualified
personnel of the science. The training of highly
qualified personnel largely determines the future
potential of our science. That is why solving the
problems of their training is one of the main issues
in the field of science management.
Developed models and algorithms for the
systematic application of the demand for highly
qualified personnel were achieved on the
computer. The results of the calculations showed
the workability and efficiency of the
developed simulation system. The developed
methodological cases, models, algorithms and
software can be used in the creation of
automated management systems for the
training of highly qualified personnel in other
republics.
Reference List
1. Beshelev S.D., Gurvich F.G. Mathematical-static methods of expert evaluations. -M.: Statistics.
(1980). -314 p.
2. Evlanov L.G., Kutuzov V.A. Expert evaluations in management. -M.: Economics. (1978).
3. Obidov A.O., Mamatkhodjaeva T.N. Determination of priority scientific specialties by the method
of cluster analysis on the basis of promising directions of R&D // Issues of modelling and
informatisation of the economy. -Tashkent, (1991). - Issue. 2. - p.115-122.
4. Orlovskiy S.A. Problems of decision-making at fuzzy initial information. -M.: Science. (1981). -
208 p.
5. Mirzarakhmedova A.H. Modelling of scientific and technical potential on the basis of information
technologies. //VI All-Russian Conference of Young Scientists on Mathematical Modelling and
Information Technologies (with participation of foreign scientists): 2005 Kemerovo.
6. Mirzarakhmedova A.H. Development of information and dialogue system for assessing the need
for highly qualified personnel. // Vestnik TashGTU.
- p.25-28.
