OPPORTUNITIES TO REDUCE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT
OF THE SEASONALITY FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT
Prof. Dr. Nozim MUMINOV
Alfraganus University, the National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo
Lecturer Farhod KHALMATJONOV
The National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek
Student Azamat KADIROV
The National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek
There are many factors which have impact whether positive or negative
on the development of tourism. One clear illustration of the factors is
seasonality. This factor can be recognized as the primary reason for the
uneven distribution of tourists in a certain period (a year, half a year).
From an economic point of view, it represents recurring fluctuations
in demand with alternating peaks and valleys. Lower seasonal demand
unevenness is also characteristic of medical and business tourism;
different tourist regions have specific forms of seasonal demand
unevenness. Therefore, we can talk about the specifics of tourist demand
in a particular locality, region, country, on a global scale. The seasonality
of demand is also influenced by psychological factors (traditions,
imitation, fashion). Peaks and declines in tourist activity can be largely
explained by the conservatism of most tourists such as the ingrained
opinion that summer is the most favorable time for holidays. Seasonal
fluctuations in tourist demand can lead to forced downtime of the
material and technical base, give rise to social problems. Furthermore,
this factor heavily influences when it comes to major tourist centers. The
main aim of this paper is to research the possibilities of alleviating the
negative impact of the seasonality factor in the development of tourism
Tourism, Uzbekistan, Semarkand
TURIZMNI RIVOJLANTIRISHDA MAVSUMIYLIK OMILINING SALBIY
TA’SIRINI PASAYTIRISH IMKONIYATLARI
Turizmni rivojlanishiga ijobiy yoki salbiy ta’sir ko‘rsatuvchi ko‘pgina
omillar mavjud. Shulardan biri mavsumiylikdir. Ushbu omil ma’lum
bir davr ichida turizm industriyasi xizmatlaridan foydalanuvchilarni
notekis taqsimlanishining asosiy sababchisi hisoblanadi. Iqtisodiy
nuqtai nazardan ushbu omil talabning cho‘qqi va tushkunlik bilan o‘rin
almashib turuvchi tebranuvchi holatini aks ettiradi. Past darajadagi
mavsumiy nomutanosiblik davolanish va biznes turizmga ham hosdir,
turli turistik mintaqalar talabning mavsumiy nomutanosibligining o‘ziga
xos shakllariga ega. Shu sababdan, alohida bir aholi yashash joyi, tuman,
mamlakat, dunyo miqyosida turistik talabning xususiyatlari haqida
gapirish mumkin. Mavsumiylikka psixologik xarakterdagi omillar
(an’analar, taqlid, moda)ham o‘z ta’sirini ko‘rsatadi. Turistik faollikdagi
o‘sish va pasayishlarni ko‘p jihatdan turistlarning konservatizmi
bilan, ya’ni yoz ta’til uchun eng qulay davr degan dogma bilan bog‘liq.
Turistik talabning mavsumiy tebranishlari moddiy-texnika bazani
faoliyatsiz turib qolishiga olib keladi, ijtimoiy jihatdan muammolarni
keltirib chiqaradi. Shuningdek, ushbu omil yirik turistik markazlarni
rivojlantirish jarayoniga ham kuchli ta’sir kuchiga ega. Ushbu tadqiqotda
mavsumiylik omilining Samarqandda turizmni rivojlantirishga salbiy
ta’sirini pasaytirish imkoniyatlari o‘rganilgan.
Turizm, O‘zbekiston, Semarkand
TURİZMİN GELİŞİMİNDE MEVSİMLİK FAKTÖRÜNÜN OLUMSUZ
ETKİSİNİ AZALTMA FIRSATLARI
Turizmin gelişimini olumlu veya olumsuz yönde etkileyen birçok
faktör bulunmaktadır. Bu faktörlerden biri mevsimselliktir. Bu faktör,
turizm endüstrisi hizmetlerinin kullanıcılarının belirli bir süre içinde
(bir yıl, yarım yıl) eşit olmayan dağılımının nedenidir. Ekonomik
açıdan bakıldığında, değişen zirveler ve vadiler ile talepte tekrarlayan
dalgalanmaları temsil eder. Düşük mevsimsel talep eşitsizliği, tıp ve iş
turizminin de özelliğidir; farklı turizm bölgelerinin belirli mevsimsel
talep eşitsizliği biçimleri vardır. Bu nedenle, belirli bir yerellik, bölge,
ülke, küresel ölçekte turist talebinin özelliklerinden bahsedebiliriz.
Talebin mevsimselliği de psikolojik faktörlerden (gelenekler, taklit,
moda) etkilenir. Turist faaliyetlerindeki zirveler ve düşüşler, büyük
ölçüde turistlerin çoğunluğunun muhafazakarlığıyla açıklanabilir. Yaz
tatilleri için en uygun zaman olduğuna dair kökleşmiş görüş. Turist
talebindeki mevsimsel dalgalanmalar, maddi ve teknik tabanın zorunlu
olarak durmasına yol açmakta, sosyal sorunlara yol açmaktadır. Bu
faktör aynı zamanda önemli turizm merkezleri söz konusu olduğunda da
güçlü bir etkiye sahiptir. Bu çalışma, Semerkant’ta turizmin gelişmesinde
mevsimsellik faktörünün olumsuz etkisini azaltma olanaklarını
Turizm, Özbekistan, Semerkant
The accelerated development of the tourism and increasing its role in
the economy is considered one of the important tasks in the Development
Strategy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. In recent years, tourism has
become one of the “focal points” of the national economy, which, being
a driver for the development of other related industries, stimulates
income growth, having a high multiplier effect. Tourism development
is influenced by many factors. A special place among them is occupied
by seasonality, which acts as the most important specific problem.
Seasonality is the property of tourist flows to concentrate in certain
places over a short period of time. From an economic point of view, it
represents recurring fluctuations in demand with alternating peaks
and valleys. The “high” tourist seasons are summer (July-August) and
winter (January-March). In addition, there are “off-seasons” (April-June,
September-December), during which tourist flows fade and demand is
reduced to a minimum.
Studies of Turaev B.Kh. (2008), Safarov B.Sh. (2015), Muminov N.G.
(2022), describe the theoretical and methodological foundations of
tourism development and the factors which influence it. Features of the
development of ecological tourism are studied in the works of Andrew
Holden (2016), Hoshimov M. (2009), Tukhliev N. and Abdullaeva T.
(2006), Kholmatjanov B.M. and others (2020). The following scientists
have dealt with the problems of formation and sale of tourism products
in foreign countries and in Uzbekistan: Durovich A.P. (2008), Hristov
T.T. (2007), Fedtsov V.G. (2008), V.V. Ludnikova (2013), Voloshinova
M.V. and Zagorskaya V.V. (2021), Usmonova D.K. (2009), Egamberdiev
F. (2022). These works describe the features of development in various
countries of the world during the pandemic. The analyzed material on
tourism encourages a deeper study of tourism policy in our country, as
well as in foreign countries.
When solving the tasks set, a structural-system approach, a
classification method, comparative and statistical analysis, induction and
deduction, extrapolation, generalization, economic and mathematical
modeling, as well as empirical and logical methods have been applied.
Features of the seasonality of demand in tourism are as follows: it
varies significantly by type of tourism. Thus, educational tourism is
characterized by less significant seasonal fluctuations than recreational
tourism. Lower seasonal demand unevenness is also characteristic of
medical and business tourism; different tourist regions have specific
forms of seasonal demand unevenness. Therefore, we can talk about the
specifics of tourist demand in a particular locality, region, country or on
a global scale.
Hence, according to statistics, in Europe two summer months account
for up to half of all tourist trips. In countries where annual fluctuations in
temperature and other climate elements are insignificant, the seasonality
of tourism is less pronounced (for example, Morocco has a year-round
tourist season); seasonality in tourism is determined mainly by factors
such as climatic, social and psychological.
The seasonality of demand is also influenced by psychological factors
(traditions, fashion). Peaks and declines in tourist activity can be
largely explained by the conservatism of many tourists, for instance the
ingrained opinion that summer is the most favorable time for holidays.
Seasonal fluctuations in tourist demand have a negative impact on
the national economy. They lead to forced downtime of the material
and technical base, give rise to social problems. The fact that most of
the enterprises of the tourism industry and its personnel are used only
a few months a year is the reason for the increase in the share of semi-
fixed costs in the cost of tourism services. This reduces the possibility of
a flexible pricing policy, complicates the activities of tourism enterprises
in the market and reduces their competitiveness.
The negative consequences of seasonal uneven demand require the
study of this phenomenon and the adoption of organizational, economic
and social measures to smooth out seasonal peaks and recessions in
tourism. To this end, tourist organizations and enterprises practice
seasonal price differentiation (increased prices in the high season,
moderate or reduce prices in the “off-season”; the difference in hotel
rates depending on the season can reach 50 percent), stimulation
development of types of tourism that are not subject to seasonal
fluctuations (for example, business, congress, etc.).
The smoothing of seasonality in tourism gives a great economic
effect, allowing economic agents to increase the life of the material and
technical base, increase the degree of use of personnel labor throughout
the year, and increase tourism revenue.
A special place in the tourism industry is occupied by accommodation
and catering enterprises. The attractiveness of the region for tourists
largely depends on the level of hotel and restaurant service. But the
tourism industry, especially accommodation and catering enterprises,
is subject to fluctuations in demand for tourist services during the year
(seasonality), which leads to an increase in the cost of maintaining
accommodation and catering enterprises and an increase in the cost of
The main tasks of tourism are (Karpova G.A., 2013, p. 138):
establishment of harmonious relations between the economy,
nature and society;
creation of as many tourist organizations as possible, whose
activities would be aimed at increasing, reproducing and preserving the
already existing consumer value of the natural environment. It is also
important that a part of the funds received from tourism revenues be
directed to the solution of these problems; preference should be given to
long-term projects, but at the same time, short-term interests should be
taken into account;
longer-term ones should be directed to the preservation of nature,
historical monuments and other attractions for future generations.
multiple increase of the country’s recreational and tourist resources,
development of local communities in socio-economic terms;
constant, purposeful and systematic cultivation of the criteria
responsible for the balance of the environment.
Tourism development is hampered by several key points (Pisarevsky
E.L., 2011, p. 35).
Firstly, the lack of high-quality hotel infrastructure and professional
staff. Many hotel managers prefer hiring people “off the street” and teach
them on their own.
The second important factor is the problem of transport. In many
regions there are no decent roads, and air travel is too expensive.
The third factor is few well-maintained facilities. There are several
territories in which any economic activity is prohibited by law. As a
result, such places simply fall into disrepair.
Undoubtedly, inbound tourism significantly limits the visa issue, but
it’s not just about visas.
Tourism around the world is developing quite quickly, but in
Uzbekistan there are some problems that need to be solved for tourism
to develop better in our country.
Number of tourists visiting Uzbekistan in 2016-2021 (million people)
Center for Economic Research data
For the period 2016-2020, the Government of Uzbekistan adopted
more than 60 regulatory legal acts related to the tourism sector. A visa-
free regime has been introduced for citizens of 90 countries of the world.
During this period, the number of tour operators increased by around
2.7 times (from 484 to 1346), the export of tourism services by 2.4 times
(from $547 million to $1.3 billion), tourist accommodation facilities
increased by 1.7 times (from 750 to 1308), the number of places in
accommodation facilities increased 1.8 times (from 34.1 thousand to
61.5 thousand), the number of countries with which a visa-free regime
was introduced increased 10 times (from 9 to 90).
A very simple and effective method of minimizing the negative impact
of seasonality on tourism development is the organization of short-term
tours to major tourist centers. For example, organizing a short tour to
Samarkand has the following advantages:
duration of the tour - 12-16 hours.
tour costs are minimal (transport Tashkent-Samarkand-Tashkent).
good highway Tashkent - Samarkand meeting international
existence of roadside communications for rest and short-term stop.
services of a guide introducing the tourist destinations of Samarkand.
transport in Samarkand to visit tourist destinations (perhaps the
same transport as from Tashkent).
lunch (possibly + dinner) with the maximum combination of national
visiting the famous Samarkand Siyab market and country bread
market (Samarkand Patir).
purchase of souvenirs for memory and for gifts.
However, there are also negative aspects of short-term tourism:
lack of time to visit all tourist destinations.
Long periods of sitting on the road (7-8 hours round trip) and on
your feet visiting tourist destinations (approximately 5-8 hours) can be
exhausting for some tourists.
Based on the above analytical and research materials, the following
conclusions can be drawn: to some extent each factor impacting the
development of tourism is the main one but in its own way, there are no
secondary factors; each factor affecting the development of tourism can
be a reason to both positive and negative consequences; the seasonality
factor has a dogmatic character, and it can be gradually transferred to a
wave of positivism that is to say any season can be used for various types
of tourism; short-term tourism such as Tashkent-Samarkand-Tashkent,
which was aforementioned as an example, will not give time and
opportunity to tourists to forget their comfort along with the changes in
weather patterns which will not greatly affect tourism plans.
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