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Forecasts of the food market and its alternative scenarios
Sotvoldiev Nodirbek Jurabaevich
1
Candidate of Economic Sciences,
Associate Professor of Namangan State University
Uzbekistan, 160136, Namangan, Uychi street, 316
E-mail:
Annotation:
Each region of the Fergana Valley is characterized by its strong management
centers, the diversity of natural resources, the general agro-climatic factors, the availability and
the potential for the creation of a finished product production system. For this reason, it is
advisable to work out prospective directions for the deployment and development of productive
forces. At the same time, it is important to fully utilize the capabilities of the main sector in the
organized economic system of the region. The future development of productive forces in this area
is inseparably linked with agro-industrial production and its sectoral and regional improvement.
In addition, the interregional production system, which is based on the continuous growth
of food production in the regions, the intensification of intersectoral communications, the
expansion of the role of intensive factors, in turn, will increase the demand for complex scientific
forecasts. At this stage, the scientific forecasting should reflect the activities of the food market
and facilitate the expansion of foreign markets. The region's participation in the world economy
opens the way for further stages of social and economic development. At the same time, the
emphasis should be on the sustainable improvement of the elastic business structure, adapted to
the changing competition inherent to the market economy.
The main task of the food market in the Ferghana Valley in the near and long-term
perspective is to increase production efficiency and bring the level of material welfare of the
population to the world's leading countries on the basis of equalizing social and economic
development in the regions. This, in its turn, is a very complex and urgent issue, not only with the
radical changes in the economy, but also with a change in the lives of the whole society and,
consequently, the acceleration of its development.
In this regard, this article elaborates the forecasts of the food market in the Ferghana Valley
for 2020-2030 and its alternative scenarios. The first scenario is based on a retrospective analysis
of food production in the Ferghana Valley. In the second scenario, the population's food supply is
calculated based on the minimum consumer budget, while the third scenario provides the regions'
food supply coefficients and supply estimates. On the basis of the analysis of the forecast
parameters of the Ferghana Valley Food Market and its results, scientific-practical conclusions
have been developed.
Key words:
food market, agriculture, agro-industrial complex, Fergana Valley, region,
population, forecast.
Introduction
In the near future, the solution of the food problem will be related to trends in
agricultural development. Growth rates of food production are expected to be lower than
population growth. The food problem in the world is so acute that radical changes are
taking place in approaches to addressing the food crisis and food security. Due to the
global population growth and the shortage of basic foodstuffs, export and import
operations are becoming one of the key factors in the development and development of
interstate economic relations. Given the complexity of the current and expected trends in
the formation of global resources, food and raw materials security in the countries will be
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ensured both now and in the future through domestic production. This will prevent
dependence on the global market situation and ensure full utilization of the existing
potential of the sectors of the agro-industrial complex.
In this regard, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Sh.Mirziyoev noted that
“… it is necessary to pay special attention to the solution of the problem of food security
and the establishment of strict control over the production of genetically modified
products. The growing import of fruits and vegetables in the domestic markets in recent
years should certainly alert us. To prevent this, first of all we need to restore the ancient
varieties that have disappeared, to rational and effective breeding work, to widely
introduce scientific achievements and innovations in the field. ”[1] From the foregoing, the
analysis of the scientific and practical problems related to the improvement of market
mechanisms and analysis of the factors affecting the functioning of the food market in the
Ferghana Valley, the development of regional evaluation criteria, and the development of
solutions.
Literature Review
Research in the Russian Federation shows that the food market, like other markets,
is a socially important market that influences the formation of regional reproductive
conditions, which determines the economic environment and, to a large extent, the
standard of living. The food market is a single dynamic system that provides interaction
between sellers and buyers in determining the volume and composition of production, as
well as achieving the required quality and price, based on the rational formation and
distribution of primary and secondary processed food resources [3]. In many cases, the
food market is viewed as a complex system of complexity. In particular, the food market is
a system of economic relations that shapes the demand and supply of foodstuffs among
producers, market infrastructure entities and consumers, as well as within these groups
[4]. Also, the food market is organized for production, exchange, distribution and
consumption of food for agricultural producers, food processing and processing industries,
infrastructure entities, economic relations between the state and the end consumer of
products. is seen as a complex system of socio-economic relations [5]. Recent research has
shown that the food market is a spatial reproductive system that is a relatively
independent part of the national economy that performs specific economic, social and
political functions that link economic relations between subjects of food production and
consumption. [6].
In the context of Uzbekistan, the food market has been studied as a category
describing a particular type of economic relations of commodity production [7]. Research
has been carried out in the context of farmers' market development [8]. Seasonal price
fluctuations in the farmer's market have also been studied [9]. There are also studies
focusing on the development of the food market in the structure of the consumer goods
market [10]. In most cases, food market research has been conducted at the level of
individual segments [11]. There is also a dissertation research that directly describes the
food market. At the same time, the economic essence of the food market includes the
areas of infrastructure designed to support and manage the sustainable development of
market relations in food production, consumption, and food production and sales [12]. In
addition, the formation of the food market is directly related to its participation in the
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wholesale trade, which is seen as a system for the sale of goods by agricultural producers
of different types of ownership [13].
At the same time, the selection of the theme in the Ferghana Valley is based on the
analysis of inter-regional and inter-sectoral economic relations, the analysis of natural and
socio-economic factors, and the development of alternative forecasts for the near and far
periods.
Research methodology
Applying systematic analysis to food market research methods is important. In
Uzbekistan, for example, the Ferghana Valley is considered a whole region, but has also
been studied at different stages and sizes - Andijan, Namangan and Ferghana regions. It
has become possible to allocate production costs, take into account cost categories and
market needs. As a result, the criteria for ensuring the effective functioning of the market
are scientifically sound, based on the purpose of the food market, development
challenges, population needs, and regional distribution. At the same time, sectoral and
regional comprehensive food research methods have been used. The methods of this
research are focused on the deployment of productive forces based on market principles,
and vertical and horizontal economic relations have been explored on the basis of the
natural and socioeconomic resources and specialization of the region. In particular,
through retrospective analysis, trends in the near and far future are identified. Dynamics of
population growth was determined using the forecast method and scenario scenarios for
future levels of food availability were developed.
Analysis and Results
The bulk of the food stock in our country is formed by domestic production and
partly through imports. The acuteness of the food problem has been completely
eliminated, but the consumption of products is below normal and there is a need to
radically improve the quality of nutrition.
Accordingly, it is necessary to create conditions to increase the production of foodstuffs to
the extent that they can meet scientifically justified needs and to maintain the solvency of
the population sufficient to provide sound nutrition.
Peculiarities of the development of the food market in the Fergana Valley are inseparably
linked with the profound qualitative changes taking place in the economy and social life.
These are, first, changes in the demographic situation in the region, natural growth and
migration movements, secondly, the extent of existing natural resources and their use in
production, thirdly, the use of scientific and technological achievements, and the fifth,
addressing social and environmental needs. The indicators of participation in the domestic
and foreign markets are, sixth, due to the sustainable development of the process of
intensification of the entire national economy.
Properly identifying the key trends in the development of the food market in the Ferghana
Valley are inextricably linked with the regional economies. This is because the economies
of the regions, based on the interconnected and peculiarities of the natural integrated
country, serve to maximize the full use of the existing natural, social and economic
opportunities and to enhance the distribution of labor. In addition, the region's economy,
along with the creation of a highly efficient production system and the uninterrupted
development of its development, also provide the necessary opportunities for the
implementation of socio-economic policies appropriate for each region.
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One of the problems of theoretical, methodological and practical nature is the view of the
Fergana Valley region as a unified natural unit, the implementation of sectoral and regional
forecasts. This requires the establishment of a scientific basis for the forecasting of
productive forces for the Fergana Valley regions, with the aim of defining the strategic
direction of a common social and economic development.
A retrospective approach to scientific forecasting is essential to provide food for the
population of the Fergana Valley region and, therefore, to provide scientifically grounded
developments.
Usually 15–30 years of past (retrospective) development is usually sufficient to
predict. It is precisely this historical period that provides the basis for the assessment of
the current situation and its prediction for the next several years. It should be noted that
the duration and duration of the forecasting are limited to the life cycle of the projected
event and the recovery time. This, of course, requires retrospective, stability of the
baseline transition, and internal and external conditions.
We use retrospective analysis of forecasting for the first scenario. The retrospective
analysis method is divided into stages. It explains the development, current status and
peculiarities of food production. Particularly important is the study of the stages of
formation, distribution of economic categories, the emergence of a certain integrity and
systematicity. Also, as a methodology for predicting regional development, an analysis of
the distribution of labor spanning from 10 to 30 years can identify trends in the near and
far future.
Table 1 shows that the average growth rate of potato production in 2000-2018 or 28
years was 2.3 times in Andijan region and 1.8 times in Namangan and Ferghana regions.
Taking into account the average growth rate of potato cultivation, Andijan region will
produce 371,900 tonnes of potatoes in 2020, 418,900 tonnes in 2025 and 465,800 tonnes
in 2030.
In general, the forecast of the first scenario is positive. If we project the population's
food supply patterns, a little different conclusions can be drawn.
The basic premise of the scientific forecast is the ability to take into account the
process closely related to the demographic situation in the Ferghana Valley. The
widespread advocacy of forecasting problems in addressing demographic problems can
also be expected. This is especially true for regions with high growth rates. Because, if
current rates of natural growth last for another 20-30 years, socioeconomic problems may
accumulate.
The second scenario predicts production volume by the proportion of future
population to the minimum consumer budget. For this purpose, the forecast is made first
per capita and then for the entire population period. This method allows modeling
demand for foodstuffs with sufficient accuracy and forecasting trends for the near future.
In the second scenario, when determining the development and prospects of the
food market, it is necessary to first determine the future population size. In fact, the
driving force behind any market is its population and its growing needs. Therefore, based
on the economic and mathematical model of population growth in the region, we will
make scientific estimates of population size in the coming years.
A function of time is chosen using the least squares method of demographic
statistics and mathematical statistics, relying on research in economic and mathematical
Economics and Innovative Technologies. Vol. 2019, No. 5, september-october
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modeling of population growth in the Ferghana Valley. For this purpose, based on the data
of the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, we will present the
Table 1
Scenario 1: Food production forecasts in the Ferghana Valley based on a retrospective
analysis (thousand tons)
1
Product
type
Region
The
average
growth
rate in
2000-
2018,
times
In fact
Forecast indicators
2018 year
2020 year 2025 year 2030 year
Potatoes
Andijan
2,3
325,0
371,9
418,9
465,8
Namangan
1,8
242,6
264,2
285,7
307,3
Fergana
1,8
256,8
279,6
302,5
325,3
Vegetable
Andijan
2,2
1539,5
1744,8
1950,0
2155,3
Namangan
1,6
749,5
799,5
849,4
899,4
Fergana
1,8
837,3
911,7
986,2
1060,6
Meat
(live
weight)
Andijan
1,6
146,1
155,8
165,6
175,3
Namangan
1,6
140,3
149,7
159,0
168,4
Fergana
1,6
165,6
176,6
187,7
198,7
Milk
Andijan
1,7
926,9
999,0
1071,1
1143,2
Namangan
1,6
678,1
723,3
768,5
813,7
Fergana
1,6
1012,8
1080,3
1147,9
1215,4
Eggs
(million)
Andijan
2,5
616,7
719,5
822,3
925,1
Namangan
3,9
526,7
696,4
866,1
1035,8
Fergana
2,4
481,6
556,5
631,4
706,3
data: in 1990 the population was 1789.0 thousand people in Andijan region, 1,551,800
people in Namangan region, and 2214,600 in Ferghana region, in 2018. 3066.7 thousand
people, 2752,7 thousand and 3683,1 thousand persons. Or, in the Ferghana Valley, the
population was 5555,400 in 1990 and 9,502,500 in 2018 (Table 2).
1
Based on data from the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
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Table 2
The population of the Fergana Valley in 1990-2018 (thousand people)
2
Region
1990 year
2000 year
2010 year
2018 year
Andijan
1789,0
2216,5
2672,3
3066,7
Namangan
1551,8
1953,2
2379,5
2752,7
Fergana
2214,6
2697,5
3229,2
3683,1
Fergana Valley
5555,4
6867,2
8281,0
9502,5
Find the mathematical model of population growth as follows:
𝑦 = 𝑎𝑒
𝑘(𝑥
𝑖
−1990)
Based on this function, the population of the Ferghana Valley can be predicted for
the next 10 years. Based on the estimation and coefficients of the system of normal
equations, the population of the Ferghana Valley will reach 11815,300 people by 2030, or
by 124.3% compared to 2018. By 2030, the population growth rate will be 124.4% in
Andijan region, 126.2% in Namangan and 122.9% in Fergana region. The coefficients for
the mathematical model were analyzed using Fisher's statistics, which is noteworthy with a
probability of 0.95 (Table 3).
Table 3
Population forecasts in the Ferghana Valley (thousand people)
3
Region
2018
year
Forecast indicators
Percentag
e in 2020
versus
2018
Percentag
e in 2025
versus
2018
Percentag
e in 2030
versus
2018
2020
year
2025
year
2030
year
Andijan
3066,7 3175,2
3480,7
3815,6
103,5
113,5
124,4
Namanga
n
2752,7 2857,9
3150,6
3473,3
103,8
114,5
126,2
Fergana
3683,1 3801,5
4148,1
4526,4
103,2
112,6
122,9
Fergana
Valley
9502,5 9834,6 10779,4 11815,3
103,5
113,4
124,3
Using a mathematical model, one can predict population numbers at different
times. This will allow determining the size of the food market in the future, the volume and
composition of the food market. Based on this, the need for new jobs, the amount of food
2
Based on data from the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
3
Based on data from the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
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production and the use of land resources are also important in terms of population
growth. Therefore, economic growth in the regions of the republic should be focused on
high rates of real incomes of the population, in particular, to guarantee the required level
of demand for food.
We calculate the minimum consumer budget for food supply based on projected
indicators of the population. For example, by 2020 the population of Andijan region will be
3175.2 thousand people, and the minimum annual consumption budget for potatoes will
be 63.5 kg. So, by 2020, potato production should reach 3175.2 x 63.5 / 1000 = 201.6
thousand tons. In the same way, production forecasts for other products can be calculated
for the next years (Table 4).
Table 4
Second scenario: Projections of food availability in Ferghana Valley based on the
minimum consumer budget
4
Product type
Annual
minimum
consumer
budget
norms, kg
Region
In fact, a
thousand
tons
Forecast indicators,
thousand tons
2018 year
2020 year 2025 year
2030
year
Potatoes
63,5
Andijan
325,0
201,6
221,0
242,3
Namangan
242,6
181,5
200,1
220,6
Fergana
256,8
241,4
263,4
287,4
Vegetable
171,5
Andijan
1539,5
544,5
596,9
654,4
Namangan
749,5
490,1
540,3
595,7
Fergana
837,3
652,0
711,4
776,3
Meat
(live weight)
45,6
Andijan
146,1
144,8
158,7
174,0
Namangan
140,3
130,3
143,7
158,4
Fergana
165,6
173,3
189,2
206,4
Milk
119,3
Andijan
926,9
378,8
415,2
455,2
Namangan
678,1
340,9
375,9
414,4
Fergana
1012,8
453,5
494,9
540,0
Eggs
(million)
205
Andijan
616,7
650,9
713,5
782,2
Namangan
526,7
585,9
645,9
712,0
Fergana
481,6
779,3
850,4
927,9
4
Based on data from the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
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In the second scenario, the coefficient of food production in relation to the
minimum consumer budget is 1.0. This opens the possibility of exporting the coefficient
greater than 0.8 and the efficient use of available resources of food production.
In order to assess the future market situation, we use the first and second scenarios
to determine the ratio of food production to the minimum consumer budget. At the same
time, the coefficient of production on the ratio of the minimum population budget to the
minimum consumer budget is 1, with the coefficient less than 1 and the excess of the
product (Table 5).
Table 5
Third scenario: Food supply coefficients and supply forecasts in the Ferghana Valley
5
Product
type
Region
Coefficient of supply
The difference in the level of
supply,
"-", "+" thousand tons
2018
year
2020
year
2025
year
2030
year
2018
year
2020
year
2025
year
2030
year
Potatoes
Andijan
1,669
1,845
1,895
1,922
130,3
170,3
197,9
223,5
Namangan
1,388
1,456
1,428
1,393
67,8
82,7
85,6
86,7
Fergana
1,098
1,158
1,148
1,132
22,9
38,2
39,1
37,9
Vegetable
Andijan
2,927
3,204
3,267
3,294
1013,6 1200,3 1353,1 1500,9
Namangan
1,588
1,631
1,572
1,510
277,4
309,4
309,1
303,7
Fergana
1,326
1,398
1,386
1,366
205,6
259,7
274,8
284,3
Meat
(live
weight)
Andijan
1,045
1,076
1,043
1,007
6,3
11
6,9
1,3
Namangan
1,118
1,149
1,106
1,063
14,8
19,4
15,3
10
Fergana
0,986
1,019
0,992
0,963
-2,3
3,3
-1,5
-7,7
Milk
Andijan
2,534
2,637
2,580
2,511
561,0
620,2
655,9
688
Namangan
2,065
2,122
2,044
1,964
349,7
382,4
392,6
399,3
Fergana
2,305
2,382
2,319
2,251
573,4
626,8
653
675,4
Eggs
(million)
Andijan
0,981
1,105
1,152
1,183
-12,0
68,6
108,8
142,9
Namangan
0,933
1,189
1,341
1,455
-37,6
110,5
220,2
323,8
Fergana
0,638
0,714
0,742
0,761
-273,4 -222,8
-219
-221,6
By 2020, meat production in Ferghana region will reach 1 in self-sufficiency,
however, due to high population and growth rates, it will not be able to provide meat
products in 2025-2030. At the same time, egg production rates are below 1.0. In the
5
Based on data from the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
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Andijan region, a vegetable production ratio of 3.0 is retained, which is explained by the
efficient use of greenhouses and land resources. High share of households in milk
production in all regions provides a factor of 2.0 or higher in all years.
Or, this calculated coefficient determines the following levels of the region's supply
relative to the minimum consumer budget:
- production of potatoes in Andijan by 170.3 thousand tons, in Namangan - 82.7 thousand
tons, and in Fergana - 38.2 thousand tons, by 2030 - 223.5 thousand tons, 86.7 thousand
tons and 37, respectively. Over 9,000 tonnes are produced;
- Excess production of vegetable products by 2030 will increase exports to Andijan by
1,500,900 tons, Namangan by 303.7 thousand tons and Fergana by 284.3 thousand tons.
- Excess of milk production in 2020-2030 will lead to the development of processing
enterprises;
- Despite the fact that Andijan and Namangan regions are self-sufficient in the forecast
period, there is a deficit of 1.5 thousand tons in 2025 and 7.7 thousand tons in 2030;
- High level of egg production remains in Andijan and Namangan regions. In the Fergana
region, in 2020, compared to the minimum consumer budget, there will be $ 222.8 million.
pieces, in 2025 219.0 mln. units and $ 221.6 million by 2030. deficiency of eggs.
In general, planning the import and export of foodstuffs should take into account
the current economic situation, the state of the domestic market, and the specifics of the
regions. Exports and imports of food are likely to be revitalized in the future.
The above-mentioned issues require the strengthening of inter-regional economic
relations and are an integral part of the socio-economic development of the country's food
market. The study of this problem is based on a comprehensive analysis and projections of
the demographic situation, natural resources and other conditions directly and indirectly
related to the movement of the food market. The analysis of Fergana Valley food market
projections is based on the following socio-economic results:
Referring to the Fergana Valley regions as a single economic unit, the
implementation of sectoral and regional forecasting is one of the problems that are
of theoretical, methodological and practical nature. This requires the establishment
of a scientific basis for the forecasting of productive forces for the Ferghana Valley
regions, and it is desirable to identify the strategic directions for a common social
and economic development;
Development and implementation of socio-economic development programs in
regions of the Ferghana Valley, leading to its limited, scientifically grounded,
unreliable;
Progn Food market forecasting in the Fergana Valley region includes a set of
problems that are closely intertwined with specific features. Specifically, it is
necessary to identify the most efficient economic sectors for the region, to
determine their future orientation and development paths, to take into account
existing demographics, historical development, participation in interregional
economic relations, natural resources, domestic and foreign markets. .
Conclusions and Suggestions
Based on the analysis of the Fergana Valley food market forecasts and results, it is
possible to develop the following scientific conclusions and recommendations:
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Progn The Fergana Valley food market projection is characterized by an integrated
approach, and represents a qualitatively new stage of socio-economic development.
At the same time, the emphasis should be on accelerating the development and
accelerating the territorial arrangement of economic sectors on the basis of the
further development of existing industries;
Determining the most effective agricultural crop variants on the basis of forecasting
sectoral and regional structure of agro-industrial production, identifying optimal
ways to increase gross yields and productivity, and providing the population with
food based on intensive technologies;
The deepening of the distribution of foodstuffs and the division of labor through the
domestic production of the regions are important for the development of economic
relations;
Food security and export will be improved if the agricultural production location
meets the needs of the national and regional markets;
it is advisable to arrange inter-regional exchanges, taking into account natural and
economic conditions, population density and accumulation of certain types of
products.
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